At least 30% of generative AI (GenAI) projects will be abandoned after proof of concept by the end of 2025, due to poor data quality, inadequate risk controls, escalating costs, or unclear business value, according to a report from Gartner Inc.
“After last year's hype, executives are impatient to see returns on GenAI investments, yet organizations are struggling to prove and realize value. As the scope of initiatives widen, the financial burden of developing and deploying GenAI models is increasingly felt,” Rita Sallam, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner, said in a release.
In addition, many organizations struggle to justify the substantial investment in GenAI for productivity enhancement, which can be difficult to directly translate into financial benefit. That means that GenAI projects require a higher tolerance for indirect, future financial investment criteria versus immediate return on investment (ROI). And historically, many CFOs have not been comfortable with investing today for indirect value in the future, the report found.
“Unfortunately, there is no one size fits all with GenAI, and costs aren’t as predictable as other technologies,” Sallam said. “What you spend, the use cases you invest in and the deployment approaches you take, all determine the costs. Whether you’re a market disruptor and want to infuse AI everywhere, or you have a more conservative focus on productivity gains or extending existing processes, each has different levels of cost, risk, variability and strategic impact.”
Despite those challenges, some earlier adopters are reporting a range of business improvements. In a recent Gartner survey, respondents reported 15.8% revenue increase, 15.2% cost savings and 22.6% productivity improvement on average. The survey of 822 business leaders was conducted between September and November 2023.
The year 2024 will go down as a bit of a mixed bag for transportation. The truckload market remained sluggish, and maritime rates rose due to the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Capacity remained high, while fuel prices came down. Meanwhile shippers loaded up on inventory ahead of anticipated rises in tariffs.
As we begin 2025, we asked three industry experts for their takes on what the new year may bring for transportation and logistics. Participants included: Sal Campos, managed transportation operations leader at logistics service provider Ruan; Allan Miner, CEO of the third-party logistics company CT Logistics; and Julie Van de Kamp, chief customer officer for the freight data and analytics platform Sonar.
The past two years have been sluggish for transportation companies. What do you expect for 2025?
Sal Campos: There have been expectations for a rise in rates for the past two years that haven’t materialized. Capacity in the industry has remained resilient in the face of these low rates, and trucks are leaving the market more slowly than anyone had anticipated. We are reasonably comfortable that rates have hit bottom and will not go any lower, but any rebound may be more gradual than carriers would like.
Julie Van de Kamp: The conditions that have suppressed freight rates have mostly been on the supply or capacity side of the equation—demand, or volume, has been fairly robust throughout the year. We think that this imbalance is coming to an end, as evidenced by Sonar’s truckload tender rejection rates breaching 6% back in November. Shippers who pushed contract rates down aggressively in 2023 and 2024 now face upside risks to their rates and the threat of a routing guide breakdown. Third-party logistics providers may experience a temporary squeeze as spot rates rise against the contract rates they have with their customers, but they will be key in finding capacity for retailers, manufacturers, and suppliers as they get their pricing sorted out.
Allan Miner: There should be an uptick in shipping due to the reductions in interest rates leading to the end of the freight recession in the U.S. The U.S. presidential results are showing positive consumer and corporate attitudes; therefore, spending activity for the U.S. consumer, which drives elevated shipping activities for companies as well.
How will the new administration affect trade and logistics policy?
Julie Van de Kamp: I think the Trump administration’s policies combine for a beneficial effect on transportation companies in North America. The prospect of higher tariffs on goods from China are causing aggressive inventory builds to front-run these deadlines, increasing demand for transportation services. At the same time, lower corporate taxes will spur capital expenditures and investment in production. We think that economic ties with Mexico and Canada will grow tighter as regional trade grows in importance relative to “global” trade.
Allan Miner: The new administration is going to have an initial positive impact on trade, but tariffs on Chinese manufactured products will have a negative impact on international trade and logistics activity for the next several years.
Sal Campos: We expect change. The new administration has made it clear they are planning to increase the tariffs levied on companies importing into the United States. There is a commitment to impose 10%–20% tariffs on imports regardless of the country they come from and 60% or higher on goods originating from China or from Chinese companies manufacturing abroad. At the same time, there is a commitment to reducing the regulatory impact on U.S.-based production, making it much easier for companies to nearshore their production. There are a lot of moving parts here, and the full impact remains to be seen. All that being said, manufacturing drives the transportation sector like nothing else, so even small increases in U.S. manufacturing output could have an outside impact on the supply chain and the transportation economy.
A lot of government funds have been spent on improving infrastructure over the past several years. Has that made a difference in our transportation networks?
Julie Van de Kamp: It has in some places. A lot of government money for infrastructure has gone to things like urban transit projects to reduce car traffic and improve pedestrian safety in cities, but that hasn’t really impacted transportation. On the other hand, dredging projects and new cranes at ports all over the East Coast have significantly increased the throughput of those container terminals. A new international bridge across the Rio Grande at Laredo was finally approved by the Biden administration in October. A new bridge across the Mississippi at Memphis is also in the works. These kinds of projects are necessary but make small, incremental improvements to the overall fluidity of the transportation network—they don’t necessarily have direct effects on capacity, volume, or rates. Instead, there might be small reductions in shipment delays and improved on-time performance; drivers might be able to log more miles per day.
Allan Miner: Unfortunately, due to restrictive labor rules and regulations at all of the major East and West Coast ports, the investment in infrastructure will only have a minimal impact on improving capacity and timeliness in our domestic transportation network.
Sal Campos: There are projects we are seeing firsthand here in Iowa, including the $68.6 million mixmaster interchange reconstruction project that will make a difference to safety and traffic flow here locally. Unfortunately, most of the allocated funds are there to simply catch up on repairs of our current infrastructure that are decades past due. While these are needed repairs and improvements, and they will certainly decrease the chances of catastrophic failures, they do little to impact congestion and traffic flow for our drivers. Only a small percentage of the overall funding will go to road expansion and new highway infrastructures.
Aside from smaller players exiting the market, is there anything that can be done to reduce the current overcapacity?
Sal Campos: As we’ve attended several large transportation conferences recently, I’ve been struck by the continued optimism about a turnaround in the second half of 2025. Many large carriers expressed optimism and said they were well positioned with excess capacity to quickly take advantage of an improving freight market. While that commentary was from a small sample of the overall trucking market, I believe it gives us a window into why this freight recession has hung around for so long. Carriers are really clinging to their assets tightly, so they don’t miss the rebound when it finally comes. The best way to see the market rebound is to see the pie get bigger, so everyone isn’t fighting over the same piece.
Allan Miner: Unfortunately, the macroeconomic impact on the supply chain will continue to impact overcapacity in many shipping lanes and geographic regions.
Julie Van de Kamp: Since deregulation, the freight market naturally corrects itself over time. The latest oversupply was a direct result of an overstimulated economy, and it’s taken longer than typical to correct. One of the great things about the freight market is that it's self-healing, but this also means that it can be volatile and the pendulum swings between over- and under-supply of capacity. All that to say, the current overcapacity will correct within the next few months.
Will lower interest rates help to increase transportation-related investments?
Julie Van de Kamp: Lower interest rates mean that money is cheaper and therefore a wider range of capital projects—some of which may have been on the border of feasibility before—can achieve acceptable rates of return. So, borrowing and investing will be incentivized. Real estate development and construction will be stimulated, as well as homebuying, not to mention other capital expenditures like equipment purchases. For carriers specifically, it will be cheaper to replenish their fleets with new trucks; lease terms will be more favorable. We expect the Fed to keep moving interest rates down as long as inflation stays relatively under control, and it should continue to stimulate borrowing, investment, and economic growth, all of which are positives for transportation demand.
Sal Campos–Ruan: I don’t see that having a major impact for most companies. Transportation companies invest in trucks, trailers, and drivers. Our rolling assets have a finite life cycle, and while we can delay purchases for a while, eventually, you must replenish this rolling stock. It was unfortunate that during COVID—when we all needed assets and interest rates were low—that the manufacturers could not keep up with the demand. Now that interest rates are high, they can build more trucks and trailers than carriers need.
Allan Miner: [Lower interest rates will help] only to the extent that investments in new tractors and trailers will be reduced by three to five years.
Have you introduced artificial intelligence (AI) into any of your operations? In what areas and how has it made an impact?
Allan Miner: Yes, we have begun to use AI in some of our simpler, repetitive tasks that are not too complex.
Sal Campos: As this technology begins to mature, we’ve found two areas show a potential for promising returns. We’ve been using RPA [robotic process automation] for a while in our workflow automations, and AI has allowed us to pick up some nice efficiency gains, especially in the FP&A [financial planning and analysis] areas. On the safety and compliance side, companies have begun to use AI to help parse through enormous amounts of data available to help predict areas of risk so that they can work upstream to prevent them.
Do you expect fuel costs to decline or rise in the coming year, and how will that affect the industry?
Sal Campos: I tell our procurement team all the time that if trucking companies could accurately predict fuel prices, we would sell all of our trucks and just invest in the commodities market. We’d make a lot more money without all the hassle of operating trucks! There are so many factors that drive the supply and demand of diesel that even the most sophisticated experts are often wrong. Our focus is to have fair fuel programs with our suppliers and customers that allow us to hedge against cost changes so that they don’t materially impact us either way. I believe most trucking companies take the same approach.
Julie Van de Kamp: In 2025, fuel prices are expected to decline slightly on a national level. This forecast is supported by OPEC's recent decision to maintain its voluntary production cuts for the remainder of the year, delaying plans of an output hike that would risk further deterioration in oil prices. President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on pro-growth energy policies, including the opening of federal leases for oil and gas, which would add to U.S. production levels that have repeatedly hit record highs over the past 12 months. If the Ukraine situation is resolved quickly, regardless of the specifics, it could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, further adding to global supply.
Allan Miner: Fuel costs will be declining as the new federal government reinstitutes domestic oil production incentives and capabilities in North America.
What do you think is the future of electric-powered vehicles (EVs), and has your opinion shifted with current conditions?
Sal Campos: We have adopted electric trucks on a very limited scale and only where it is economically viable for both Ruan and our customers. We believe the yard tractor is the right application to continue electrification/decarbonization efforts. It is a creative, reliable, sustainable transportation solution that improves driver satisfaction and can be lower cost versus diesel deployment. I believe we are not even remotely close to having the technology or infrastructure for wider adoption, especially in heavy-duty Class 8 applications. We would probably need to increase our truck and driver fleets by 50% to accommodate the lowered payload (EVs are much heavier) and long charging times (it only takes 15 minutes to fuel a diesel). Those extra costs would ultimately be passed on to the consumer. We are currently piloting/testing other solutions, including renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, hydrogen fuel cell, etc.
Julie Van de Kamp: Electric-powered vehicles have a bright future, and there are certainly use cases in commercial transportation where they would be a good fit. The very best use cases for electric commercial vehicles are in local delivery—returning to the same motor pool each night simplifies battery recharging. The frequent stopping and starting in urban traffic, which is extremely fuel-inefficient and causes higher emissions, are easily handled by electric vehicles. Over-the-road trucking is a different story: The miles are long, often into unfamiliar regions; the routes are irregular and change frequently; and maximizing shipment weight and range really matter. There are a lot of reasons why long-haul truckers want the range and flexibility from internal combustion engines, so we expect that segment to convert to EVs last, if at all.
How can distributors and shippers better prepare their shipments to help carriers?
Julie Van de Kamp: Distributors and shippers can better help their carriers by making their freight and processes as efficient and driver-friendly as possible. Through conversations with shippers and my experience in working for a carrier, a broker, and now a data company, I’ve learned the following: Aligned strategies and relationships that allow for long-term partnerships and open communication and mutual reliance on more than just transactional freight are the most beneficial [tactics].
Allan Miner: Plan to use standard pallet dimensions, weights, and classifications, so that ease of shipping, transfer, storage, and delivery are harmonious.
Sal Campos: The two most important factors are to provide ample advance notice of pickup and delivery dates/times and to be ready for the pickup and/or the delivery when the driver arrives. Drivers are planned days in advance, so a delay of even a few hours can cause a carrier to rework planning across multiple drivers and trips to account for the cascading effect of the delay.
That is important because the increased use of robots has the potential to significantly reduce the impact of labor shortages in manufacturing, IFR said. That will happen when robots automate dirty, dull, dangerous or delicate tasks – such as visual quality inspection, hazardous painting, or heavy lifting—thus freeing up human workers to focus on more interesting and higher-value tasks.
To reach those goals, robots will grow through five trends in the new year, the report said:
1 – Artificial Intelligence. By leveraging diverse AI technologies, such as physical, analytical, and generative, robotics can perform a wide range of tasks more efficiently. Analytical AI enables robots to process and analyze the large amounts of data collected by their sensors. This helps to manage variability and unpredictability in the external environment, in “high mix/low-volume” production, and in public environments. Physical AI, which is created through the development of dedicated hardware and software that simulate real-world environments, allows robots to train themselves in virtual environments and operate by experience, rather than programming. And Generative AI projects aim to create a “ChatGPT moment” for Physical AI, allowing this AI-driven robotics simulation technology to advance in traditional industrial environments as well as in service robotics applications.
2 – Humanoids.
Robots in the shape of human bodies have received a lot of media attention, due to their vision where robots will become general-purpose tools that can load a dishwasher on their own and work on an assembly line elsewhere. Start-ups today are working on these humanoid general-purpose robots, with an eye toward new applications in logistics and warehousing. However, it remains to be seen whether humanoid robots can represent an economically viable and scalable business case for industrial applications, especially when compared to existing solutions. So for the time being, industrial manufacturers are still focused on humanoids performing single-purpose tasks only, with a focus on the automotive industry.
3 – Sustainability – Energy Efficiency.
Compliance with the UN's environmental sustainability goals and corresponding regulations around the world is becoming an important requirement for inclusion on supplier whitelists, and robots play a key role in helping manufacturers achieve these goals. In general, their ability to perform tasks with high precision reduces material waste and improves the output-input ratio of a manufacturing process. These automated systems ensure consistent quality, which is essential for products designed to have long lifespans and minimal maintenance. In the production of green energy technologies such as solar panels, batteries for electric cars or recycling equipment, robots are critical to cost-effective production. At the same time, robot technology is being improved to make the robots themselves more energy-efficient. For example, the lightweight construction of moving robot components reduces their energy consumption. Different levels of sleep mode put the hardware in an energy saving parking position. Advances in gripper technology use bionics to achieve high grip strength with almost no energy consumption.
4 – New Fields of Business.
The general manufacturing industry still has a lot of potential for robotic automation. But most manufacturing companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which means the adoption of industrial robots by SMEs is still hampered by high initial investment and total cost of ownership. To address that hurdle, Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) business models allow enterprises to benefit from robotic automation with no fixed capital involved. Another option is using low-cost robotics to provide a “good enough” product for applications that have low requirements in terms of precision, payload, and service life. Powered by the those approaches, new customer segments beyond manufacturing include construction, laboratory automation, and warehousing.
5 – Addressing Labor Shortage.
The global manufacturing sector continues to suffer from labor shortages, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). One of the main drivers is demographic change, which is already burdening labor markets in leading economies such as the United States, Japan, China, the Republic of Korea, or Germany. Although the impact varies from country to country, the cumulative effect on the supply chain is a concern almost everywhere.
The “2024 Year in Review” report lists the various transportation delays, freight volume restrictions, and infrastructure repair costs of a long string of events. Those disruptions include labor strikes at Canadian ports and postal sites, the U.S. East and Gulf coast port strike; hurricanes Helene, Francine, and Milton; the Francis Scott key Bridge collapse in Baltimore Harbor; the CrowdStrike cyber attack; and Red Sea missile attacks on passing cargo ships.
“While 2024 was characterized by frequent and overlapping disruptions that exposed many supply chain vulnerabilities, it was also a year of resilience,” the Project44 report said. “From labor strikes and natural disasters to geopolitical tensions, each event served as a critical learning opportunity, underscoring the necessity for robust contingency planning, effective labor relations, and durable infrastructure. As supply chains continue to evolve, the lessons learned this past year highlight the increased importance of proactive measures and collaborative efforts. These strategies are essential to fostering stability and adaptability in a world where unpredictability is becoming the norm.”
In addition to tallying the supply chain impact of those events, the report also made four broad predictions for trends in 2025 that may affect logistics operations. In Project44’s analysis, they include:
More technology and automation will be introduced into supply chains, particularly ports. This will help make operations more efficient but also increase the risk of cybersecurity attacks and service interruptions due to glitches and bugs. This could also add tensions among the labor pool and unions, who do not want jobs to be replaced with automation.
The new administration in the United States introduces a lot of uncertainty, with talks of major tariffs for numerous countries as well as talks of US freight getting preferential treatment through the Panama Canal. If these things do come to fruition, expect to see shifts in global trade patterns and sourcing.
Natural disasters will continue to become more frequent and more severe, as exhibited by the wildfires in Los Angeles and the winter storms throughout the southern states in the U.S. As a result, expect companies to invest more heavily in sustainability to mitigate climate change.
The peace treaty announced on Wednesday between Isael and Hamas in the Middle East could support increased freight volumes returning to the Suez Canal as political crisis in the area are resolved.
ReposiTrak, a global food traceability network operator, will partner with Upshop, a provider of store operations technology for food retailers, to create an end-to-end grocery traceability solution that reaches from the supply chain to the retail store, the firms said today.
The partnership creates a data connection between suppliers and the retail store. It works by integrating Salt Lake City-based ReposiTrak’s network of thousands of suppliers and their traceability shipment data with Austin, Texas-based Upshop’s network of more than 450 retailers and their retail stores.
That accomplishment is important because it will allow food sector trading partners to meet the U.S. FDA’s Food Safety Modernization Act Section 204d (FSMA 204) requirements that they must create and store complete traceability records for certain foods.
And according to ReposiTrak and Upshop, the traceability solution may also unlock potential business benefits. It could do that by creating margin and growth opportunities in stores by connecting supply chain data with store data, thus allowing users to optimize inventory, labor, and customer experience management automation.
"Traceability requires data from the supply chain and – importantly – confirmation at the retail store that the proper and accurate lot code data from each shipment has been captured when the product is received. The missing piece for us has been the supply chain data. ReposiTrak is the leader in capturing and managing supply chain data, starting at the suppliers. Together, we can deliver a single, comprehensive traceability solution," Mark Hawthorne, chief innovation and strategy officer at Upshop, said in a release.
"Once the data is flowing the benefits are compounding. Traceability data can be used to improve food safety, reduce invoice discrepancies, and identify ways to reduce waste and improve efficiencies throughout the store,” Hawthorne said.
Under FSMA 204, retailers are required by law to track Key Data Elements (KDEs) to the store-level for every shipment containing high-risk food items from the Food Traceability List (FTL). ReposiTrak and Upshop say that major industry retailers have made public commitments to traceability, announcing programs that require more traceability data for all food product on a faster timeline. The efforts of those retailers have activated the industry, motivating others to institute traceability programs now, ahead of the FDA’s enforcement deadline of January 20, 2026.
Inclusive procurement practices can fuel economic growth and create jobs worldwide through increased partnerships with small and diverse suppliers, according to a study from the Illinois firm Supplier.io.
The firm’s “2024 Supplier Diversity Economic Impact Report” found that $168 billion spent directly with those suppliers generated a total economic impact of $303 billion. That analysis can help supplier diversity managers and chief procurement officers implement programs that grow diversity spend, improve supply chain competitiveness, and increase brand value, the firm said.
The companies featured in Supplier.io’s report collectively supported more than 710,000 direct jobs and contributed $60 billion in direct wages through their investments in small and diverse suppliers. According to the analysis, those purchases created a ripple effect, supporting over 1.4 million jobs and driving $105 billion in total income when factoring in direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts.
“At Supplier.io, we believe that empowering businesses with advanced supplier intelligence not only enhances their operational resilience but also significantly mitigates risks,” Aylin Basom, CEO of Supplier.io, said in a release. “Our platform provides critical insights that drive efficiency and innovation, enabling companies to find and invest in small and diverse suppliers. This approach helps build stronger, more reliable supply chains.”