Consumer products analyst firm J.D. Power is shaving down its earlier forecasts for electric vehicle (EV) market share as sales of purely battery-powered cars cool off amid concerns about public charging ports and rising popularity of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)—which combine battery power with gasoline engines.
Despite a continued overall rise in EV sales volume, consumer interest and adoption of EVs were slower than expected in the first half of 2024, the Troy, Michigan-based firm said in its “E-Vision Intelligence Report.” Accordingly, the firm has cut its near-term EV forecast from an initial prediction of 12% in 2024 down to 9%. That calculation translates to approximately 1.2 million units in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), excluding plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and hybrids (HEVs).
For a longer-term view, J.D. Power projects that annual EV sales volumes will reach 36% market share by 2030 and 58% market share by 2035. Those increased numbers will be driven by financial factors, as EV affordability and availability scores have been improving for two consecutive months, the firm said. Current tax incentives and lease deals are making EVs more affordable than their gas-powered counterparts, in many categories. And continued improvements in overall accessibility of EVs and increased volume from returning EV lessees—94% of whom say they are likely to consider another BEV—are likely to drive a surge in EV sales volume during the next two years.
In the meantime, the automotive sector is moving through “the messy middle of the EV evolution,” as manufacturers offer an increasingly varied mix of powertrains ranging from HEVs to PHEVs to BEVs. With all those options, the adoption curve continues to grow but in a less predictable, more volatile fashion, the report said.
