How are rapidly changing fulfillment requirements affecting warehouse operations? According to a recent survey, they're triggering widespread changes in everything from facility footprints to long-standing value-chain partnerships.
If you’ve been involved in order fulfillment for a decade or more, there’s a good chance you’ve seen a wholesale change in your facility’s picking patterns. Over the last 15 years, many DCs—particularly in the retail sector—have found themselves picking far fewer pallets or cases and a lot more individual items or pieces.
As for what’s driving this trend, a big part of the answer is e-commerce and the consequent rise in consumer-direct shipping. And the growth of e-commerce shows no sign of slowing. Prior research by ARC Advisory Group and our sister publication DC Velocity showed that companies expect an average of 40 percent growth in online sales over the next five years. Meanwhile, Amazon, the 800-pound gorilla in the market, has achieved annual North American growth of over 20 percent in each of the last five years.
With this substantial growth comes rapid change and fierce competition, stimulating widespread changes to warehouses and fulfillment operations. To be precise, the heightened customer expectations and industry competition are forcing managers to rethink fulfillment processes, technology needs, operational priorities, warehouse footprints, and even the roles of long-standing value-chain partnerships.
But what is the market profile of today’s operations? In what ways are the demands on warehouses changing? Perhaps more importantly, what are practitioners doing today and what are their plans to meet future demand and remain competitive?
To develop a better understanding of the fulfillment environment, ARC Advisory Group and DC Velocity teamed up to conduct a survey of practitioners, asking about facilities, market pressures, operations, and investment priorities. We included a time-phase element to obtain insight into the likely progression from past to present to future. Many of our findings are likely to confirm your current assumptions, while others may surprise you.
DC FOOTPRINT EXPANSION
Although CBRE and other real estate firms publish regular reports on trends in industrial real estate, including warehouse space, data on warehouse types coupled with fulfillment operation data is hard to find. So we decided to include a question on facility types in our study. What we learned was that on average, respondents’ facility footprints are almost half bulk warehousing (facilities with more than 100,000 square feet of space), while a quarter consists of smaller warehouses, followed by cross-docking operations and refrigerated facilities.
When asked to look forward five years, respondents identified bulk warehousing and cross-docking as the types of facilities they most expected to become more prevalent. One consumer-goods company respondent noted that it was expanding the footprint of existing facilities to support growth. We believe this to be a common and cost-effective means of increasing capacity. Meanwhile, a third-party logistics service provider (3PL) reported a planned expansion of bulk and cross-docking facilities to meet the anticipated needs of its clients.
Not surprisingly, when asked about the reasons behind their planned facility expansions, respondents most frequently cited expected increases in throughput and storage capacity needs. Interestingly, an increase in order complexity was the next most common response, followed by a change in outbound load profile. These results point to the current evolution of order profiles driven by e-commerce growth and related factors such as the average retailer’s proliferation in SKUs (stock-keeping units). One mechanical parts distributor noted that its business is moving away from wholesale in favor of retail sales. This is a great example of disintermediation in the supply chain, as consumers increasingly opt to order online rather than visit a retail store.
MARKET PRESSURES AND FULFILLMENT PROFILES
Every order would be the perfect order in an ideal world. But in reality, practitioners must set priorities and deal with tradeoffs. When respondents were asked about fulfillment priorities, "fulfillment accuracy" unsurprisingly topped the list. However, respondents believe that "fulfillment responsiveness" is the capability whose importance has increased the most over the last five years.
Also worth noting, respondents believe that "fulfillment adaptability" (defined as the ability to handle a wide range of order profiles) has risen in importance more than "fulfillment throughput" has. This supports the view that overall order variability has increased, making adaptability more important. And this trend is expected to continue, as fulfillment adaptability and fulfillment responsiveness are the capabilities most expected to grow in importance over the next five years.
Respondents’ comments support the view that pressures from e-commerce are largely responsible for this shift. For example, a respondent from an office supply wholesaler noted that it had seen an increase in its e-commerce direct-to-consumer shipments. Such a transition requires greater responsiveness due to the change in order profiles and customer expectations. Similarly, a respondent from a fashion accessories brand mentioned that it is becoming more nimble and adaptable to gear its operations more toward direct-to-customer fulfillment than it had in the past.
FULFILLMENT PATHS AND PICKING UNITS: FROM HERE TO WHERE?
There are a number of fulfillment paths that warehouses can support: traditional store replenishment, DC replenishment, drop shipping, and direct-to-consumer shipping. We asked respondents about the degree to which their organizations supported these various fulfillment processes. Replenishment of downstream DCs and replenishment of retail stores are currently the most prevalent fulfillment paths. However, once again, our inquiry into anticipated change painted a picture that differs from the status quo.
When asked how they expect various fulfillment processes to change over the next three years, respondents identified direct-to-consumer shipping and drop shipping (shipping goods directly from the manufacturer) as the practices that would see the biggest growth. The anticipated growth in drop shipping suggests that respondents expect to see further decoupling of customer-facing and fulfillment processes. I consider this to be one of the most interesting reconfigurations of value-chain partnerships. For one thing, it indicates that e-commerce and the omnichannel paradigm are not only affecting retailers, but also their manufacturing and wholesale partners. As retailers are pressed on margins, many are refocusing on the customer experience and unloading the inventory carrying costs and fulfillment processes onto their upstream partners.
PICK, PACK, REPEAT
Order size and scale generally decrease as products move through the supply chain toward the final consumer. Therefore, the balance among material handling units (pallet, case, piece) handled within a warehouse is likely to change along with the adjustments in fulfillment channels. We asked respondents how they foresee picking unit types changing over the next three years. (We chose "picking" because it is typically the most labor-intensive activity in a warehouse.)
Piece (eaches) is the unit type that most said would increase and also the type that most said would increase extensively. Over half the respondents also said they expected to see an increase in case picking. In contrast, less than half of the survey respondents predicted an increase in pallet retrieval.
The responses about picking unit expectations support the view that picking units will continue to move toward eaches as warehouses fulfill more and more e-commerce orders and upstream partners support downstream partners with greater SKU variability along with smaller volumes of the same SKU.
PAIN POINTS AND TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT
The shift toward processing higher volumes of small multiline-item orders is raising fulfillment costs within the warehouse. At the same time, greater levels of order variability are injecting inefficiencies into the fulfillment process. Typically, when faced with the need to improve processes and boost efficiency, logistics practitioners turn to technology.
We asked respondents about the likelihood of deploying technology in the next three years to improve various operational processes (process pain points). Shipping, goods retrieval/order picking, and put-away are the processes most frequently cited as expected targets for technology investment over the next three years.
In their supporting comments, respondents also expressed a desire to pick single and multi-unit orders by zone within the same wave, as well as a need for flexible picking solutions that can be deployed at scale. When they were asked the same question about technology investment for warehouse planning process improvements, they most frequently cited parcel shipping, general inventory management, and slotting optimization as likely areas for investment support.
We expected parcel shipping to be a focus area due to results from other ARC and third-party research showing that the e-commerce boom had led to a substantial increase in parcel shipping. However, the high percentage of practitioners that plan to invest in technology to support reslotting and facility layout changes was unexpected. Nonetheless, it confirms the view that order profiles are evolving quickly and warehouse management is diligently searching for ways to boost efficiency.
Although logistics executives would like to have a blank check and with it, the ability to select "all of the above" when it comes to investments to improve upon their operations, businesses live in a world of competing priorities, where oftentimes one investment must be chosen at the expense of another. Given that reality, we asked respondents to select their top warehouse technology investment priorities over the next three years.
Interestingly, but not surprisingly, when it came to software, warehouse labor management systems were the top choice. E-commerce fulfillment is labor intensive and costly, as these orders are generally small, with items often stored in different parts of the facility, and that require additional steps such as packaging and labeling.
WMS was the second most frequently selected investment choice, which is unsurprising given its role as the backbone of warehouse operations.
When it came to warehouse automation options, conveyors/sortation was the most popular investment choice, followed by pick to light/put to light. The responses for conveyors likely reflect the high level of conveyor/sortation use in North America, as compared to Europe.
Meanwhile, we believe that the interest in pick/put to light reflects a desire to gain efficiencies in e-commerce fulfillment operations. Also, the results support the view that autonomous mobile robotics (AMR) in the warehouse has moved from the concept phase to practical consideration, as 15 percent of respondents selected AMR as an investment priority for the next three years.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Customer expectations and competition from e-commerce are driving widespread changes to warehousing and distribution operations. Direct-to-consumer growth is not only affecting retailers, but also manufacturers, wholesalers, and 3PLs. Warehouses and warehouse fulfillment operations are increasingly playing a greater role in commerce due to disintermediation and a reduction in retail sales through stores.
On top of that, the relationship between retailers and upstream partners is changing, as wholesalers have increased their presence in retail and retailers have pushed direct-to-consumer responsibilities back onto their suppliers. As a result, warehouse footprints are expanding, responsiveness and adaptability have become more important, parcel shipping has grown, and labor efficiency remains as important as ever.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in August, though growth slowed slightly from July, according to the most recent Logistics Manager’s Index report (LMI), released this week.
The August LMI registered 56.4, down from July’s reading of 56.6 but consistent with readings over the past four months. The August reading represents nine straight months of growth across the logistics industry.
The LMI is a monthly gauge of economic activity across warehousing, transportation, and logistics markets. An LMI above 50 indicates expansion, and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Inventory levels saw a marked change in August, increasing more than six points compared to July and breaking a three-month streak of contraction. The LMI researchers said this suggests that after running inventories down, companies are now building them back up in anticipation of fourth-quarter demand. It also represents a return to more typical growth patterns following the accelerated demand for logistics services during the Covid-19 pandemic and the lows of the recent freight recession.
“This suggests a return to traditional patterns of seasonality that we have not seen since pre-COVID,” the researchers wrote in the monthly LMI report, published Tuesday, adding that the buildup is somewhat tempered by increases in warehousing capacity and transportation capacity.
The LMI report is based on a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
That hiring surge marks a significant jump in relation to the company’s nearly 17,000 current employees across North America, adding 21% more workers.
That increase is necessary because U.S. holiday sales in 2023 increased 3.9% year-over-year as consumer spending grew even amidst uncertain economic times and trends like inflation and consumer price sensitivity. Looking at the coming peak, a similar pattern is projected for this year, with shoppers forecasted to drive a 4.8% increase in holiday retail sales for 2024, Geodis said, citing data from Emarketer.
To attract the extra workforce, Geodis says it will offer competitive wages, peak premium pay incentives, peak and referral bonuses, an expedited payment option, and flexible schedules. And it’s using an AI-powered chatbot named Sophie to serve as a virtual recruiting assistant.
“We acknowledge the immense responsibility we have to our customers to deliver exceptional service every day, and this is especially true during peak season,” Anthony Jordan, GEODIS in Americas Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, said in a release. “Because peak season is the most business-critical sales period of the year for many of our retail clients, expanding our workforce is vital to ensure we have a flexible, dynamic team that can handle anticipated surges in demand.”
With the economy slowing but still growing, and inflation down as the Federal Reserve prepares to lower interest rates, the United States appears to have dodged a recession, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“The U.S. economy is clearly not in a recession nor is it likely to head into a recession in the home stretch of 2024,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “Instead, it appears that the economy is on the cusp of nailing a long-awaited soft landing with a simultaneous cooling of growth and inflation.”
Despite an “eventful August” with initial reports of rising unemployment and a slowdown in manufacturing, more recent data has “calmed fears of a deteriorating U.S. economy,” Kleinhenz said. “Concerns are now focused on the direction of the labor market and the possibility of a job market slowdown, but a recession is far less likely.”
That analysis is based on data in the NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which said annualized gross domestic product growth for the second quarter has been revised upward to 3% from the original report of 2.8%. And consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, was revised up to 2.9% growth for the quarter from 2.3%.
Compared to its recent high point of 9.1% in July of 2022, inflation is nearly back to normal. Year-over-year growth in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – was at 2.5% in July, unchanged from June and only half a percentage point above the Fed’s target of 2%.
The labor market “is not terribly weak” but “is showing signs of tottering,” Kleinhenz said. Only 114,000 jobs were added in July, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.1% in June. Despite the increase, the unemployment rate is still within the normal range, Kleinhenz said.
“Now the guessing game begins on the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts and how far the federal funds rate will be reduced,” Kleinhenz said. “While lowering interest rates would be good news, it takes time for rate reductions to work their way through the various credit channels and the economy as a whole. Consequently, a reduction is not expected to provide an immediate uplift to the economy but would stabilize current conditions.”
Going forward, Kleinhenz said lower rates should benefit households under pressure from loans used to meet daily needs. Lower rates will also make it more affordable to borrow through mortgages, home improvement loans, car loans, and credit cards, encouraging spending and increasing demand for goods and services. Small businesses would also benefit, since lower intertest rates could lower their financing costs on existing loans or allow them to take out new loans to invest in equipment and plants or to hire more workers.
The global air cargo market’s hot summer of double-digit demand growth continued in August with average spot rates showing their largest year-on-year jump with a 24% increase, according to the latest weekly analysis by Xeneta.
Xeneta cited two reasons to explain the increase. First, Global average air cargo spot rates reached $2.68 per kg in August due to continuing supply and demand imbalance. That came as August's global cargo supply grew at its slowest ratio in 2024 to-date at 2% year-on-year, while global cargo demand continued its double-digit growth, rising +11%.
The second reason for higher rates was an ocean-to-air shift in freight volumes due to Red Sea disruptions and e-commerce demand.
Those factors could soon be amplified as e-commerce shows continued strong growth approaching the hotly anticipated winter peak season. E-commerce and low-value goods exports from China in the first seven months of 2024 increased 30% year-on-year, including shipments to Europe and the US rising 38% and 30% growth respectively, Xeneta said.
“Typically, air cargo market performance in August tends to follow the July trend. But another month of double-digit demand growth and the strongest rate growths of the year means there was definitely no summer slack season in 2024,” Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, said in a release.
“Rates we saw bottoming out in late July started picking up again in mid-August. This is too short a period to call a season. This has been a busy summer, and now we’re at the threshold of Q4, it will be interesting to see what will happen and if all the anticipation of a red-hot peak season materializes,” van de Wouw said.
“Unrelenting labor shortages and wage inflation, accompanied by increasing consumer demand, are driving rapid market adoption of autonomous technologies in manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics,” Seegrid CEO and President Joe Pajer said in a release. “This is particularly true in the area of palletized material flows; areas that are addressed by Seegrid’s autonomous tow tractors and lift trucks. This segment of the market is just now ‘coming into its own,’ and Seegrid is a clear leader.”
According to Pajer, Seegrid’s strength in the sector is due to several new technologies it has released in the past six months. They include: Sliding Scale Autonomy, which provides both flexibility and predictability in autonomous navigation and manipulation; Enhanced Pallet and Payload Detection, which enables reliable recognition and manipulation of a broad range of payloads; and the planned launch of its CR1 autonomous lift truck model later this year.
Seegrid’s CR1 unit offers a 15-foot lift height, 4,000-pound load capacity, and a top speed of 5 mph. In comparison, its existing autonomous lift truck model, the RS1, supports six-foot lift height, 3,500 pound capacity, and the same top speed.
The “series D” investment round was funded by existing lead investors Giant Eagle Incorporated and G2 Venture Partners, as well as smaller investments from other existing shareholders.