Macrotrends such as the growth of e-commerce and same-day delivery are placing costly new demands on warehouse operators. Here are four major problem areas affecting site-selection decisions this year.
John H. Boyd (jhb@theboydcompany.com) is founder and principal of The Boyd Co., Inc. Founded in 1975 in Princeton, New Jersey, and now based in Boca Raton, Florida, the firm provides independent site selection counsel to leading U.S. and overseas corporations. Organizations served by John over the years are many and varied and include The World Bank, The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), MIT’s groundbreaking Work of the Future Project, UPS, Canada's Privy Council and most recently, the President’s National Economic Council providing insights on policies to reduce supply chain bottlenecks.
In corporate site selection, there always seems to be an industry or sector "du jour" that is setting trends and dominating relocation and investment activity. No doubt about it, this year's "industry of the day" is logistics. This hot sector is commanding record-high industrial rents, experiencing vacancy rates hitting lows not seen since "the go-go 1990s," and establishing new rules of the road when it comes to site selection.
With this kind of growth and dynamism come a number of challenges that impact location and investment decisions. Here are some of our company's observations on the major issues affecting both the logistics sector and site-selection activities in 2017.
Spiking operating costs
Brisk consumer spending, white-hot e-commerce sales, and global trade developments are all fueling the growth of new warehousing and distribution center (DC) space. In particular, the push for next-day or even same-day delivery, driven by our "instant gratification economy," is leading companies to place large DCs in expensive, big-city locations. These "last mile" dynamics, in fact, are putting virtually all the areas around large U.S. cities in play for new distribution facilities—something that in the pre-Amazon days had been rejected due to high costs (principally real estate and property taxes) in favor of lower-cost alternatives in the hinterland.
This is evident in Figure 1, where we have identified a series of distribution center "hot spots" that are increasingly on the radar screens of our site-seeking clients. The DC "hot spots" listed in Figure 1 also show that companies are favoring sites that have well-developed transportation infrastructure, access to major seaport and intermodal facilities, and real estate cost and availability advantages, in addition to strength in other site-selection factors.
Regardless of where they are located, comparative operating costs (such as labor, real estate, taxes, and utilities) continue to be important in most DC site-selection decisions given the uncertain U.S. economy and continued price pressures from offshore competitors. Improving the bottom line on the cost side of the ledger is the only choice for many DC operators.
While shipping rates have remained flat, helping to moderate overall logistics costs, there have been hefty increases in DC operating costs related to real estate, construction, and labor, which are up 5.5, 6.7, and 2.1 percent, respectively, from 2016. National average asking rents for DC space of around $5.75 per square foot (including taxes, utilities, and maintenance) are nearing decade highs. Rents are spiking even higher in many U.S. cities, especially those on the West and East coasts, where rents are approaching $10.00 per square foot in markets such as California and New York.
Labor costs are a particularly big concern for our DC clients. Many are increasingly outsourcing staffing and human resources (HR) functions to third-party agencies that specialize in the logistics sector in order to keep inflationary labor-cost pressures in check, especially the spiraling costs for health-care and legal fees. Onerous and costly labor laws in litigious states like California, New Jersey, and New York also continue to plague the industry and fuel the flight to third-party HR providers. Additionally, labor unrest at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is escalating as dray drivers feel that the brunt of new clean-air standards are falling too heavily on their shoulders and pocketbooks. This unrest is creating workflow uncertainties at DCs and is putting pressure on shippers to pay higher drayage rates.
Port and rail congestion
Our firm has monitored traffic congestion for years, mostly within the context of labor-force commuting patterns and practices. Now, however, congestion is becoming a broader issue and is greatly challenging the efficiency of our DC clients and their supply chains. In particular, congestion at our nation's seaports and inland infrastructure links is an increasingly severe risk factor handicapping our clients' ability to keep pace with their global competitors.
Congestion and delays are becoming increasingly common at major U.S. ports—a problem having a profound impact on the $900 billion worth of goods transported to and from the United States each year by container ships. Of the 10 busiest container seaports, at least seven are grappling regularly with congestion, according to the American Association of Port Authorities. Ports like Charleston are doubling down on capital investments to keep ahead of congestion, as seen in Charleston's new $700 million Hugh K. Leatherman Sr. Terminal, which will increase container capacity by 50 percent at the South Carolina port.
Those seeking to locate near seaports might want to consider what steps the ports are taking to alleviate congestion. Bayonne was the first terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey to require appointments. A handful of other North American ports have adopted similar reservation systems to help mitigate congestion, including the West Coast ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland in California, and Vancouver in British Columbia.
This problem is not limited to our nation's busy seaports. Railroads and intermodal yards across the country continue to battle congestion. For example, Chicago handles about 25 percent of the country's rail freight traffic and is becoming overwhelmed by the volume; it can now take a train as much as 32 hours to pass through the city. Legendary railroad executive Hunter Harrison, now head of CSX, says that Chicago is "bursting at the seams," and that CSX is exploring alternatives to bypass the city. Train delays in the pivotal Chicago freight market can have a cascading effect, disrupting delivery schedules in DCs throughout the national supply chain.
Challenges in the cold chain
The DC sector showing the strongest growth in new starts in 2017 is the cold-storage and blast-freezing warehouse sector. Yet suitable cold chain space is in short supply nationally. Growing exports of U.S. agricultural and branded food products are a key driver behind the growth of demand for temperature-controlled facilities. As a result, many companies in the cold-storage field are implementing a "port-centric" investment strategy. Near the Port of Charleston, South Carolina, for example, California-based Lineage Logistics recently broke ground on a new 340,000-square-foot cold-storage warehouse utilizing blast-freezing technology, which is required when exporting meats, fruits, and other perishable food products. Trident Seafoods, the nation's largest seafood company, just opened a convertible refrigerated/freezer warehouse near the Port of Tacoma, Washington, to meet growing export demands.
The Food Safety and Modernization Act (FSMA), the most extensive update of federal food-safety laws since 1938, adds expensive new compliance costs for the always hyper-cost-sensitive DC sector. FSMA requires warehouses and shippers to develop well-defined food-safety strategies that will ensure the integrity of their storage and transport operations. Compliance with the new regulations requires making upgrades to many existing cold-storage facilities, but this often is economically unfeasible due to those facilities' age and the expensive design and connectivity requirements of modern warehouses.
Cybersecurity threats
The banking industry has been under siege by cybercriminals for years now, losing billions of dollars to hackers and frauds—much of which transpires under the radar screen. Why rob banks? "It's where the money is," according to the infamous bank robber Willie Sutton. Why rob the supply chain? Well, "It's where the goods are," and therefore ripe for thievery, extortion, and ransom.
From the now almost daily reports of data breaches, identity theft, ransomware, and even hacking for political purposes, it's clear that cyberthreats are pervasive, affecting all sectors of the economy. It's also clear that they pose a most severe threat to the global supply chain. In June 2017, the NotPetya ransomware attack hit companies in at least 64 nations, including Russia, Germany, and the United States. A number of supply chain-related companies were directly affected. The world's largest shipping company, A.P. Møller-Maersk, was among the victims of the NotPetya attack, which caused outages in its computer systems around the world. Maersk-owned APM Terminals' facility at the Port of New York and New Jersey had to close temporarily due to the extent of the system attack. Another victim was FedEx's TNT subsidiary. Trade in FedEx stock was temporarily halted during the attack.
DCs and other logistics service providers will have to meet this new online threat, and their investments in cybersecurity will be soaring in the months and years ahead. For that reason, our firm's labor-market investigations for site-selection clients increasingly include special research into an area's ability to supply coveted information technology talent in cybersecurity. One of our benchmarks is the presence of a college or university that has full accreditation by the National Security Agency (NSA) for its programs in information assurance.
The NSA and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) jointly sponsor the National Centers of Academic Excellence in Cyber Defense (CAE-CD) program. The goal of the program is to reduce vulnerability in our national information infrastructure by producing professionals with the latest in cyberdefense expertise. Such expertise is increasingly being sought by the human resources departments of our corporate site-seeking clients, both in and out of the logistics industry. NSA-designated colleges run the gamut from Dakota State University in Madison, South Dakota (population: 7,425), to schools in major metro areas like Northeastern University in Boston (population: 4.6 million).
Finding the way
Based on our firm's five decades of site-selection experience within the dynamic and ever-evolving supply chain industry, I am fully confident these and other challenges will be met with great success by the industry's best and brightest. Those logistics companies that find their way through these challenges—and do so while keeping costs in check—will lead this sector to even greater heights in the years ahead.
Residents and businesses along the Florida panhandle today are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Helene, which is forecasted to strengthen into a major hurricane by the time it strikes the northeast Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Hurricane and storm surge watches are already in effect for that area, which could see heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of Florida, the Southeast U.S., Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, according to predictions from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm would come a month after Hurricane Debby delivered drenching rainfall for days over Florida in August and after Hurricane Beryl hit Houston in July, knocking out power across the region.
As Helene continues to gather strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, experts are warning that the storm’s impacts could include the Port of New Orleans, agricultural operations throughout the Southeast, and additional citrus and fruit farming business in Florida, according to a report from Everstream Analytics’ chief meteorologist Jon Davis.
From a supply chain perspective, additional disruptions could include rail and road transportation stoppages, closures of interstate highways I-10 and I-75, widespread power outages, and shutdowns of offshore energy operations in the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, Davis said.
As the third potential hurricane to hit the area within as many months, the arrival of Helene shows that extreme weather events aren’t just anomalies, but rather they’re the new normal for shipping companies and port authorities, according to Frank Kenney, Director of Industry Strategy at the technology consulting firm Cleo.
To cope with that constant battering, businesses need to adopt a new mindset, he said. “The only way to keep supply chains running smoothly is to build resilience into every aspect of operations. This starts with diversifying logistics strategies. If a shipper is dependent on a single route or port, they’re setting themself up for trouble. Instead, it’s crucial to have multiple backup routes and options ready to deploy when the unexpected happens,” Kenney said.
Following that strategy, inland ports such as Savannah and Macon, Georgia, will likely gain importance in coming years since their locations offer proximity to ocean ports while also providing access to major highways and some protection from coastal flooding. “In short, the storm isn’t going away, but by embracing diversification, leveraging technology, and ensuring supply chain visibility, U.S. ports and shipping companies can stay ahead of the curve. The companies that prepare for these challenges now will be the ones that continue to thrive, no matter how extreme weather events rock the boat," Kenney said.
Container imports at U.S. ports are seeing another busy month as retailers and manufacturers hustle to get their orders into the country ahead of a potential labor strike that could stop operations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports as soon as October 1.
Less than two weeks from now, the existing contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire. With negotiations hung up on issues like wages and automation, the ILA has threatened to put its 85,000 members on strike if a new contract is not reached by then, prompting business groups like the National Retail Federation (NRF) to call for both sides to reach an agreement.
But until such an agreement is reached, importers are playing it safe and accelerating their plans. “Import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “This has caused some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports. In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.”
The stakes are high, since a potential strike would come at a sensitive time when businesses are already facing other global supply chain disruptions, according to FourKites’ Mike DeAngelis, senior director of international solutions. “We're facing a perfect storm — with the Red Sea disruptions preventing normal access to the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal’s still-reduced capacity, an ILA strike would effectively choke off major arteries of global trade,” DeAngelis said in a statement.
Although West Coast and Canadian ports would see a surge in traffic if the strike occurs, they cannot absorb all the volume from the East and Gulf Coast ports. And the influx of freight there could cause weeks, if not months-long backlogs, even after the strikes end, reshaping shipping patterns well into 2025, DeAngelis said.
With an eye on those consequences, importers are also looking at more creative contingency plans, such as turning to air freight, west coast ports, or intermodal combinations of rail and truck modes, according to less than truckload (LTL) carrier Averitt Express.
“While some importers and exporters have already rerouted shipments to West Coast ports or delayed shipping altogether, there are still significant volumes of cargo en route to the East and Gulf Coast ports that cannot be rerouted. Unfortunately, once cargo is on a vessel, it becomes virtually impossible to change its destination, leaving shippers with limited options for those shipments,” Averitt said in a release.
However, one silver lining for coping with a potential strike is that prevailing global supply chain turbulence has already prompted many U.S. companies to stock up for bad weather, said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange.
"While the threat of strikes looms large, it’s important to note that U.S. inventories are currently strong due to the pulling forward of orders earlier this year to avoid existing disruptions. This stockpile will act as an essential buffer, mitigating the risk of container rates spiking dramatically due to the strikes,” Roeloffs said.
In addition, forecasts for a fairly modest winter peak shopping season could take the edge off the impact of a strike. “With no significant signs of peak season demand strengthening, these strikes might not have as intense an impact as historically seen. However, the overall impact will largely depend on the duration of the strikes, with prolonged disruptions having the potential to intensify the implications for supply chains, leading to more pronounced bottlenecks and greater challenges in container availability, " he said.
A coalition of freight transport and cargo handling organizations is calling on countries to honor their existing resolutions to report the results of national container inspection programs, and for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to publish those results.
Those two steps would help improve safety in the carriage of goods by sea, according to the Cargo Integrity Group (CIG), which is a is a partnership of industry associations seeking to raise awareness and greater uptake of the IMO/ILO/UNECE Code of Practice for Packing of Cargo Transport Units (2014) – often referred to as CTU Code.
According to the Cargo Integrity Group, member governments of the IMO adopted resolutions more than 20 years ago agreeing to conduct routine inspections of freight containers and the cargoes packed in them. But less than 5% of 167 national administrations covered by the agreement are regularly submitting the results of their inspections to IMO in publicly available form.
The low numbers of reports means that insufficient data is available for IMO or industry to draw reliable conclusions, fundamentally undermining their efforts to improve the safety and sustainability of shipments by sea, CIG said.
Meanwhile, the dangers posed by poorly packed, mis-handled, or mis-declared containerized shipments has been demonstrated again recently in a series of fires and explosions aboard container ships. Whilst the precise circumstances of those incidents remain under investigation, the Cargo Integrity Group says it is concerned that measures already in place to help identify possible weaknesses are not being fully implemented and that opportunities for improving compliance standards are being missed.
By the numbers, overall retail sales in August were up 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 1.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year in July.
August’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”
The U.S., U.K., and Australia will strengthen supply chain resiliency by sharing data and taking joint actions under the terms of a pact signed last week, the three nations said.
The agreement creates a “Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group” designed to build resilience in priority supply chains and to enhance the members’ mutual ability to identify and address risks, threats, and disruptions, according to the U.K.’s Department for Business and Trade.
One of the top priorities for the new group is developing an early warning pilot focused on the telecommunications supply chain, which is essential for the three countries’ global, digitized economies, they said. By identifying and monitoring disruption risks to the telecommunications supply chain, this pilot will enhance all three countries’ knowledge of relevant vulnerabilities, criticality, and residual risks. It will also develop procedures for sharing this information and responding cooperatively to disruptions.
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the group chose that sector because telecommunications infrastructure is vital to the distribution of public safety information, emergency services, and the day to day lives of many citizens. For example, undersea fiberoptic cables carry over 95% of transoceanic data traffic without which smartphones, financial networks, and communications systems would cease to function reliably.
“The resilience of our critical supply chains is a homeland security and economic security imperative,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas said in a release. “Collaboration with international partners allows us to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they occur. Our new U.S.-U.K.-Australia Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group will help ensure that our communities continue to have the essential goods and services they need, when they need them.”