As the United States teeters on the brink of recession, a panel of financial and procurement experts has recommended five ways that procurement professionals can prepare their companies for an economic downturn.
As the United States teeters on the brink of recession, perhaps pulling the rest of the world along with it, a panel of financial and procurement experts has recommended five ways that procurement professionals can prepare their companies for an economic downturn. The panelists made their case for action at a forum sponsored by the software vendor Emptoris.
"There are too many examples of companies that have tried the 'quick and dirty' approach to cost reduction, only to find that their wins were not sustainable over time," said Robert A. Rudzki of management consultants Greybeard Advisors LLC. "Top management needs to think strategically and work collectively to ensure meaningful, effective action."
Donavon Favre, a professor of supply chain strategies at North Carolina State University, said that when the last economic downturn occurred in the early 2000s, many companies rushed to reduce costs and in the process made cuts that ended up costing them more money in the long run. The lesson: Think long-term before you act.
Here are the panel's five recommendations on actions companies should take now in anticipation of rocky economic times ahead:
Strategy 1: Get quick visibility into spending. A company can't control what it can't see. "Companies have long been shackled by the dispersed and disparate nature of their spend data. It's stuck in dozens of different systems and departments around the globe," said the third panelist, Kirit Pandit, author of Spend Analysis: The Window into Strategic Sourcing. Fortunately, with the advent of software tools and outsourced processes, gaining global, enterprise visibility into spending is easier than in the past, he said. Spend-analysis software can aggregate data from dozens of different systems, including the major enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms, and can analyze spending by commodity, cost center, geography, time, payment terms, and more.
Strategy 2: Take steps to mitigate inflation. The panel recommended renegotiating contracts with top suppliers to help insulate against inflation. In sourcing and contract renegotiation, the focus should be on highvalue, high-risk areas such as transportation and fuel. In addition, companies should focus on categories where they can negotiate lower prices with suppliers without incurring higher costs elsewhere or damaging their long-term interests relative to delivery, performance, and availability.
Strategy 3: Renegotiate and enforce contract compliance. Whether it's enforcing negotiated pricing, realizing quantity discounts, or ensuring quality standards and associated penalties and discounts, contract compliance becomes even more essential in a recessionary environment. Technology can play a role in helping to track and measure commitments compared to a supplier's actual performance.
Strategy 4: Mitigate risks when pursuing cost reductions. A bad sourcing decision or supplier issue can be devastating in a bad economy. One of the biggest mistakes companies make when negotiating with suppliers is looking strictly for lower costs, rather than evaluating overall value. The focus on lower costs that has led to outsourcing and low-cost country sourcing has brought with it sometimes unforeseen problems, such as poor quality, delivery issues, increased risks, and service interruptions.
Strategy 5: Do more with less. Budgets may be trimmed and headcount reduced in a recession, yet sourcing and supply chain professionals often are asked to do more to deal with global competitive pressures. The surest way to improve efficiency involves the smart application of technology, the panelists asserted. In their opinion, the best path is to choose proven, "best-of-breed" technologies that have been tested and have been successful at large, leading companies.
Dockworkers at dozens of U.S. East and Gulf coast ports are returning to work tonight, ending a three-day strike that had paralyzed the flow of around 50% of all imports and exports in the United States during ocean peak season.
The two groups “have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume,” the joint statement said.
Talks had broken down over the union’s twin demands for both pay hikes and a halt to increased automation in freight handling. After the previous contract expired at midnight on September 30, workers made good on their pledge to strike, and all activity screeched to a halt on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week.
Business groups immediately sang the praises of the deal, while also sounding a note of caution that more work remains.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) cheered the short-term contract extension, even as it urged the groups to forge a longer-lasting pact. “The decision to end the current strike and allow the East and Gulf coast ports to reopen is good news for the nation’s economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “It is critically important that the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance work diligently and in good faith to reach a fair, final agreement before the extension expires. The sooner they reach a deal, the better for all American families.”
Likewise, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) said it was relieved to see positive progress, but that a final deal wasn’t yet complete. “Without the specter of disruption looming, the U.S. economy can continue on its path for growth and retailers can focus on delivering for consumers. We encourage both parties to stay at the negotiating table until a final deal is reached that provides retailers and consumers full certainty that the East and Gulf Coast ports are reliable gateways for the flow of commerce.”
And the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) commended the parties for coming together while also cautioning them to avoid future disruptions by using this time to reach “a fair and lasting agreement,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in an email. “Manufacturers are encouraged that cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen. By resuming work and keeping our ports operational, they have shown a commitment to listening to the concerns of manufacturers and other industries that rely on the efficient movement of goods through these critical gateways,” Timmons said. “This decision avoids the need for government intervention and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, and it is a victory for all parties involved—preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains, and preventing further economic disruptions.”
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.
The number of container ships waiting outside U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports has swelled from just three vessels on Sunday to 54 on Thursday as a dockworker strike has swiftly halted bustling container traffic at some of the nation’s business facilities, according to analysis by Everstream Analytics.
As of Thursday morning, the two ports with the biggest traffic jams are Savannah (15 ships) and New York (14), followed by single-digit numbers at Mobile, Charleston, Houston, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Baltimore, and Miami, Everstream said.
The impact of that clogged flow of goods will depend on how long the strike lasts, analysts with Moody’s said. The firm’s Moody’s Analytics division estimates the strike will cause a daily hit to the U.S. economy of at least $500 million in the coming days. But that impact will jump to $2 billion per day if the strike persists for several weeks.
The immediate cost of the strike can be seen in rising surcharges and rerouting delays, which can be absorbed by most enterprise-scale companies but hit small and medium-sized businesses particularly hard, a report from Container xChange says.
“The timing of this strike is especially challenging as we are in our traditional peak season. While many pulled forward shipments earlier this year to mitigate risks, stockpiled inventories will only cushion businesses for so long. If the strike continues for an extended period, we could see significant strain on container availability and shipping schedules,” Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said in a release.
“For small and medium-sized container traders, this could result in skyrocketing logistics costs and delays, making it harder to secure containers. The longer the disruption lasts, the more difficult it will be for these businesses to keep pace with market demands,” Roeloffs said.
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J.B. Hunt President and CEO Shelley Simpson answers a question from the audience at the Tuesday afternoon keynote session at CSCMP's EDGE Conference. CSCMP President and CEO Mark Baxa listens attentively to her response.
Most of the time when CEOs present at an industry conference, they like to talk about their companies’ success stories. Not J.B. Hunt’s Shelley Simpson. Speaking today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference, the trucking company’s president and CEO led with a story about a time that the company lost a major customer.
According to Simpson, the company had a customer of their dedicated contract business in 2001 that was consistently making late shipments with no lead time. “We were working like crazy to try to satisfy them, and lost their business,” Simpson said.
When the team at J.B. Hunt later met with the customer’s chief supply chain officer, they related all they had been doing for the company. “We told him that we were literally sitting our drivers and our trucks just for you, just to cover your shipments,” Simpson said. “And he said to us, ‘You never shared everything you were doing for us.’”
Out of that experience, came J.B. Hunt’s Customer Value Delivery framework. This framework, according to Simpson, provides a roadmap for creating value and anticipating customer needs.
Framework for Excellence
J.B. Hunt created the above framework to help them formulate better relationships with customers.
The framework consists of five steps:
Understand customer needs: It all starts, according to Simpson, with building a strong relationship with the customer and then using the information gained from those discussions to build a custom plan for the customer.
Deliver expectations: This step involves delivering on the promises made in that custom plan.
Measure results: J.B. Hunt believes that they are not done when freight makes it to the destination. They also need to measure how successful they were versus what the customer expected from them.
Communicate performance: This step involves a two-way exchange, where J.B. Hunt walks the customer through their performance and gets verbal agreement on whether or not they have met the customer’s needs.
Anticipate new value: Here J.B. Hunt looks at what they are hearing from their customer today and then uses that information to derive what the customer may be looking for in the future.
Simpson said the most important part of the process is the fourth step, communicating performance (perhaps reflecting the piece that went wrong in that initial failed customer relationship).
Not only can this framework be used to drive excellence in a company, but it can also be adapted as a model for driving personal excellence, Simpson said. Instead of understanding the customer needs, the process starts with understanding yourself: what your strengths and interests are. This understanding helps drive a personal development plan and personal goals for the year, which can be measured and assessed. For example, each year, Simpson gives herself a letter grade on each of her personal goals and communicates her assessment back to her boss. She has also found it helpful to anticipate where opportunities lie beyond what she is personally doing.