Steve Geary is adjunct faculty at the University of Tennessee's Haaslam College of Business and is a lecturer at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University. He is the president of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
As consumers we're accustomed to next-day, or even same-day, delivery with a point and a click. Those expectations are now flowing from the B2C (business-to-consumer) world into the B2B (business-to-business) space. That, all by itself, is a challenge. Then a disruption happens. Strike. Trade war. Flood. Hurricane. Tornado. Wild fire. The list goes on.
When it comes to responding effectively to disruptions, commercial supply chains could find inspiration from a surprising source: the public sector. One good place to start is the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA).
With about US$35 billion in annual sales and 27,000 employees around the globe, DLA is perhaps the largest distributor you've never heard of. Headquartered just outside of Washington, D.C., DLA is the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) logistics support agency. DLA manages a global supply chain—from raw materials to end user to disposition—for the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, 10 combatant commands, other federal agencies, and partner and allied nations.
If DLA was a publicly traded company, it would be in the Fortune 100, bigger than Coca-Cola. DLA supplies about 85 percent of the military's spare parts and nearly 100 percent of its fuel and troop support consumables (including food), manages the reutilization of military equipment, provides catalogs and other logistics information products, and offers document automation and production services to a host of military and federal agencies.
Earning its keep
What is interesting about DLA—and makes it a relevant comparison for commercial distributors—is the way it's funded. Unlike most U.S. government operations, DLA is not funded directly by Congress. Instead, it earns its keep.
In practice, DLA runs similarly to a commercial business. DLA maintains what is called a working capital fund, originally created decades ago, and it uses this fund to procure inventory. DLA then "resells" that inventory to its government customers with a modest markup and collects the proceeds. Working capital flows back into the fund, with markup used to fund continuing operations.
Naturally, the government has a name for the markup. They call it a "cost recovery rate." Every year, DLA adjusts the recovery rates to keep ongoing operations running at breakeven. DLA runs like a business, and it competes.
And it does so while operating a globally ready and responsive enterprise. After all, answering rapid shifts in demand patterns is an essential part of any humanitarian relief mission, natural disaster response effort, or military operation.
Ready position
The private sector could learn a thing or two from DLA about handling supply chain disruptions. One key part of handling a disruption is simply readiness. Donnie Thompson, chief of Deployment and Training for DLA Distribution's Expeditionary Logistics division, says that it's imperative for operations to be prepared that things might not go according to plan. "Contingencies happen at a moment's notice," he says in an article published by the DLA Public Affairs Office. "We have to be adaptable, flexible, and understand that missions don't always go by the book—we have to be ready anyway."
How DLA does this is spelled out in its 10-year strategic plan: "The speed and complexity of global crises require resilient networks, robust partnerships, and quickly integrated teams. We will position resources for rapid use, build more deployable capabilities, and strengthen our partnerships using integrated logistics and contracting services."
As a case in point, consider what DLA Distribution calls its "deployable capability." For example, DLA Distribution has gone into the field after Hurricane Ike, dropped into two different locations in Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011, and supported Operation United Assistance—a response to the Ebola outbreak—in 2014. It provides a modular, scalable, and fully deployable distribution capability. When activated, the assessment team arrives on site within 48 hours, and the main body deploys within 96 hours. If force protection is required, the military provides it.
Most operations are not able to deploy this fast, but some do. Waffle House has a fleet of mobile restaurants on wheels. The Red Cross can set up in a matter of hours. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has essential life-support supplies cached around the country, ready to mobilize on demand.Â
In each of these cases, the mission defines the operational strategies. DLA's published mission is to "provide an agile, global DoD Distribution network that delivers effective and efficient distribution solutions." That mission means that DLA has to be ready to go anywhere at any time, including inserting into dangerous places. They find a way.
That concept flows down to another pillar of the 10-year strategic plan, a reliance on partnerships to achieve adaptability, flexibility, and agility. Specifically, the plan advises DLA to "work with industry to ensure a capable defense industrial base, generate innovative and efficient solutions, and maintain a secure and resilient supply chain. By building on our strong relationships with industry partners we'll deliver cost-effective, innovative solutions. An agency supplier engagement plan will guide us. We will continuously assess the strength of our industrial capabilities and develop responses to vulnerabilities, reduce single points of failure, and implement best practices." The days of a vertically integrated supply chain are over; we need to work as a team across organizational boundaries.
We all benchmark against our commercial counterparts. Maybe it's time to include capable government operations in the mix. DLA has over 200 locations in the continental United States and another 30 or so dispersed around the world. Go knock on its door; the people there would love to show you around. (I recommend checking out DLA Distribution's Susquehanna facility, located in New Cumberland, Pennsylvania.) They know the warfighter comes first, but they understand that the taxpayer is not far behind.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”