Aside from a potential rise in protectionism, there are other, fundamental short-term and long-term factors that have caused Global Insight to take a gloomier view of prospects for international trade growth in the near future.
With the collapse in July 2008 of the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Round of trade negotiations, there is some concern that a rise in protectionism may bring about lower trade growth. While this may be the case, there are other, fundamental short-term and long-term factors that have caused Global Insight to take a gloomier view of prospects for international trade growth in the near future.
Short term: U.S. downturn is spreading
In the short term, the U.S. economic downturn and expansion of the credit crunch will have a global impact on trade. The outlook remains gloomy, despite the massive growth in U.S. exports that is often cited as a bright spot in a slow economy. It may not be quite as bright as many people think. For one thing, that growth is based on low-value goods (for example, scrap metal) and agricultural products. For another, it is subsidized not only by the federal government but also by the collapsing U.S. dollar.
What happens in the U.S. economy has a notable impact on Asia. Already, Asian exports are experiencing slower growth in 2008 than in 2007, and the annual percentage growth of liner trade from Asia to the world is now projected to be half what it was in 2006.
The decline in trans-Pacific trade lanes began in the first quarter of 2007, when American consumers lost confidence and cut back their purchases. As shown in Figure 1, trans-Pacific trade to North America declined sharply, from nearly 10-percent growth in 2006 to only 2.2 percent in 2007. In 2008 growth will remain negative.
On the other side of the world, the Asia-to-Europe trade continued to boom through most of the fourth quarter of 2007. But now it has become clear that European consumers, particularly those in the United Kingdom, are reacting no differently than their American counterparts. The Asia-Europe trade is just at the beginning of a significant slowdown, with this trade expected to actually decline in 2008. We expect trade in 2009 will remain soft on trans-Atlantic routes as well.
Long term: Changes in patterns of globalization
For the past 15 years or so, world economic and trade development has been characterized by economic globalization. Before then, most goods were produced at locations near the end markets. Since globalization, much of that production has been concentrated in low-cost locations that are far from the end markets. That cost-based shift in production led to rapid growth in international trade.
But rising energy costs do not bode well for the future of global trade, in large part because economic globalization increased energy consumption in two ways. First, it considerably increased worldwide demand for freight transportation, and therefore increased consumption of diesel and gasoline. And second, it helped promote an energy-consuming lifestyle all over the world. In developed countries, for instance, low-cost imports have allowed more people to afford automobiles, airconditioned houses with many electrical appliances, and long-distance travel by airplane. In developing countries, exports have brought wealth to a small portion of the population, who are then able to pursue a similarly acquisitive lifestyle. The impact on energy usage is huge. If just 30 percent of the Chinese and Indian populations were to achieve Western levels of consumption, then the world's consumer energy consumption would double. And there are billions more people, in those countries and elsewhere, who are striving to reach that level of prosperity.
Given these trends, it's not surprising that long-term energy prices are rising. Left alone, global market competition will see energy prices continue to rise until those high prices effectively suppress energy consumption to a level that meets supply. Now, developed countries are calling for developing countries to remove subsidies for energy consumption and let the market mechanism work. There has already been some movement in that direction: China recently reduced subsidies for fuel consumption, announcing increases in gas and diesel prices of 17 percent to 18 percent. Because oil traders understand that higher prices discourage consumption, world oil prices dropped by $2 a barrel at that announcement. If all countries were to remove their subsidies to discourage fuel consumption, world oil prices would rise at a slower pace.
Rising fuel prices have also considerably increased total shipping costs. For high-value and lightweight goods, such as electronics, shipping costs are still bearable. For low-value and heavyweight goods, such as iron ore, those costs can now exceed the value of the goods themselves. If fuel prices were to continue to rise, China might find it unprofitable to bring in iron ore and coal from overseas. At the same time, countries that are exporting less coal and ore to China might find it profitable to use those raw materials to manufacture and export more steel.
With wage rates increasing and the local currency appreciating in China, some investors are considering moving manufacturing to other countries with lower costs, such as Vietnam. However, many of these opportunities may already have slipped away. Rising oil prices and the declining U.S. dollar are causing worldwide price inflation, to the point where, for some types of manufacturing, the costs of imported materials now outweigh the savings from the difference in wage rates. Furthermore, Vietnam is just as far from most developed countries' consumer markets as China is. High transportation costs will deter additional manufacturers from establishing production facilities at locations like Vietnam if they are too far away from their end markets.
In fact, high transportation costs may force manufacturers to relocate production facilities closer to material suppliers or consumption markets, depending on which transportation volume (and expense) is larger—for the input materials or for shipments of the finished products.
The strong expansion of world trade has helped to reduce the difference in wage rates and returns on capital between countries. This is called "factor price equalization" in international trade theory, and we are seeing evidence of this at work in world markets today. This makes some export manufacturing no longer profitable in certain developing countries. Moreover, when more goods are produced at locations closer to their end markets, overall world trade growth may slow down, especially if some production reverts to domestic manufacturing. This and the other factors discussed in this article lead Global Insight to forecast a decline in world trade, as shown in Figure 2.
While we will, of course, see a cyclical rebound in trade once the economies of North America and Europe rebound, longer-term economic forces will continue to lead us into an era of slower growth in international trade.
Residents and businesses along the Florida panhandle today are keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Helene, which is forecasted to strengthen into a major hurricane by the time it strikes the northeast Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Hurricane and storm surge watches are already in effect for that area, which could see heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of Florida, the Southeast U.S., Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, according to predictions from the National Hurricane Center.
The storm would come a month after Hurricane Debby delivered drenching rainfall for days over Florida in August and after Hurricane Beryl hit Houston in July, knocking out power across the region.
As Helene continues to gather strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, experts are warning that the storm’s impacts could include the Port of New Orleans, agricultural operations throughout the Southeast, and additional citrus and fruit farming business in Florida, according to a report from Everstream Analytics’ chief meteorologist Jon Davis.
From a supply chain perspective, additional disruptions could include rail and road transportation stoppages, closures of interstate highways I-10 and I-75, widespread power outages, and shutdowns of offshore energy operations in the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico, Davis said.
As the third potential hurricane to hit the area within as many months, the arrival of Helene shows that extreme weather events aren’t just anomalies, but rather they’re the new normal for shipping companies and port authorities, according to Frank Kenney, Director of Industry Strategy at the technology consulting firm Cleo.
To cope with that constant battering, businesses need to adopt a new mindset, he said. “The only way to keep supply chains running smoothly is to build resilience into every aspect of operations. This starts with diversifying logistics strategies. If a shipper is dependent on a single route or port, they’re setting themself up for trouble. Instead, it’s crucial to have multiple backup routes and options ready to deploy when the unexpected happens,” Kenney said.
Following that strategy, inland ports such as Savannah and Macon, Georgia, will likely gain importance in coming years since their locations offer proximity to ocean ports while also providing access to major highways and some protection from coastal flooding. “In short, the storm isn’t going away, but by embracing diversification, leveraging technology, and ensuring supply chain visibility, U.S. ports and shipping companies can stay ahead of the curve. The companies that prepare for these challenges now will be the ones that continue to thrive, no matter how extreme weather events rock the boat," Kenney said.
Container imports at U.S. ports are seeing another busy month as retailers and manufacturers hustle to get their orders into the country ahead of a potential labor strike that could stop operations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports as soon as October 1.
Less than two weeks from now, the existing contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire. With negotiations hung up on issues like wages and automation, the ILA has threatened to put its 85,000 members on strike if a new contract is not reached by then, prompting business groups like the National Retail Federation (NRF) to call for both sides to reach an agreement.
But until such an agreement is reached, importers are playing it safe and accelerating their plans. “Import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “This has caused some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports. In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.”
The stakes are high, since a potential strike would come at a sensitive time when businesses are already facing other global supply chain disruptions, according to FourKites’ Mike DeAngelis, senior director of international solutions. “We're facing a perfect storm — with the Red Sea disruptions preventing normal access to the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal’s still-reduced capacity, an ILA strike would effectively choke off major arteries of global trade,” DeAngelis said in a statement.
Although West Coast and Canadian ports would see a surge in traffic if the strike occurs, they cannot absorb all the volume from the East and Gulf Coast ports. And the influx of freight there could cause weeks, if not months-long backlogs, even after the strikes end, reshaping shipping patterns well into 2025, DeAngelis said.
With an eye on those consequences, importers are also looking at more creative contingency plans, such as turning to air freight, west coast ports, or intermodal combinations of rail and truck modes, according to less than truckload (LTL) carrier Averitt Express.
“While some importers and exporters have already rerouted shipments to West Coast ports or delayed shipping altogether, there are still significant volumes of cargo en route to the East and Gulf Coast ports that cannot be rerouted. Unfortunately, once cargo is on a vessel, it becomes virtually impossible to change its destination, leaving shippers with limited options for those shipments,” Averitt said in a release.
However, one silver lining for coping with a potential strike is that prevailing global supply chain turbulence has already prompted many U.S. companies to stock up for bad weather, said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange.
"While the threat of strikes looms large, it’s important to note that U.S. inventories are currently strong due to the pulling forward of orders earlier this year to avoid existing disruptions. This stockpile will act as an essential buffer, mitigating the risk of container rates spiking dramatically due to the strikes,” Roeloffs said.
In addition, forecasts for a fairly modest winter peak shopping season could take the edge off the impact of a strike. “With no significant signs of peak season demand strengthening, these strikes might not have as intense an impact as historically seen. However, the overall impact will largely depend on the duration of the strikes, with prolonged disruptions having the potential to intensify the implications for supply chains, leading to more pronounced bottlenecks and greater challenges in container availability, " he said.
A coalition of freight transport and cargo handling organizations is calling on countries to honor their existing resolutions to report the results of national container inspection programs, and for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to publish those results.
Those two steps would help improve safety in the carriage of goods by sea, according to the Cargo Integrity Group (CIG), which is a is a partnership of industry associations seeking to raise awareness and greater uptake of the IMO/ILO/UNECE Code of Practice for Packing of Cargo Transport Units (2014) – often referred to as CTU Code.
According to the Cargo Integrity Group, member governments of the IMO adopted resolutions more than 20 years ago agreeing to conduct routine inspections of freight containers and the cargoes packed in them. But less than 5% of 167 national administrations covered by the agreement are regularly submitting the results of their inspections to IMO in publicly available form.
The low numbers of reports means that insufficient data is available for IMO or industry to draw reliable conclusions, fundamentally undermining their efforts to improve the safety and sustainability of shipments by sea, CIG said.
Meanwhile, the dangers posed by poorly packed, mis-handled, or mis-declared containerized shipments has been demonstrated again recently in a series of fires and explosions aboard container ships. Whilst the precise circumstances of those incidents remain under investigation, the Cargo Integrity Group says it is concerned that measures already in place to help identify possible weaknesses are not being fully implemented and that opportunities for improving compliance standards are being missed.
By the numbers, overall retail sales in August were up 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 1.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year in July.
August’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”
The U.S., U.K., and Australia will strengthen supply chain resiliency by sharing data and taking joint actions under the terms of a pact signed last week, the three nations said.
The agreement creates a “Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group” designed to build resilience in priority supply chains and to enhance the members’ mutual ability to identify and address risks, threats, and disruptions, according to the U.K.’s Department for Business and Trade.
One of the top priorities for the new group is developing an early warning pilot focused on the telecommunications supply chain, which is essential for the three countries’ global, digitized economies, they said. By identifying and monitoring disruption risks to the telecommunications supply chain, this pilot will enhance all three countries’ knowledge of relevant vulnerabilities, criticality, and residual risks. It will also develop procedures for sharing this information and responding cooperatively to disruptions.
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the group chose that sector because telecommunications infrastructure is vital to the distribution of public safety information, emergency services, and the day to day lives of many citizens. For example, undersea fiberoptic cables carry over 95% of transoceanic data traffic without which smartphones, financial networks, and communications systems would cease to function reliably.
“The resilience of our critical supply chains is a homeland security and economic security imperative,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas said in a release. “Collaboration with international partners allows us to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they occur. Our new U.S.-U.K.-Australia Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group will help ensure that our communities continue to have the essential goods and services they need, when they need them.”