Commentary: Leading supply chain change by "logrolling"
Supply chain managers are often called upon to lead major change initiatives. Instead of shouting for change from the rooftops, "logrolling," or working quietly behind the scenes to build support by trading votes, is often faster and more effective.
Bruce C. Arntzen is the executive director of the supply chain management program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center for Transportation & Logistics.
Author's note: This is the third in a four-part series of online articles on teaching leadership to supply chain managers. The series was introduced by the article "Four keys for unlocking leadership potential," which appeared in the Q2 2018 issue of CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. The first article in the series, "Teaching leadership: How to reach non-supply chain audiences" investigated how to use the "human element" in presentations and articles. The second, "Putting vision and emotion into supply chain leadership" talked about the four main types of persuasion: vision, emotion, logic, and details.
Your new job: Go make change happen.
Hiring managers have big plans for you, their newly hired supply chain master's or MBA graduate from a top university. They are paying you a lot of money, and you report directly to a senior manager or vice president. Whether it's a large multinational or a small firm with just 200 people, your new boss expects great things from you. And there are problems to be solved. Things aren't right. Engineering, sales, and manufacturing are all behaving in ways that hurt the supply chain and degrade the end-to-end performance of the company. Even within your own function, supply chain groups in remote regions have thrown out the best practice playbook and are "winging it." But now you are here to save the day. Your boss tells you to, "Go out there and make positive changes right now. Go!" For example:
Go visit sales and get them to smooth out the crush of orders at the end of the month.
Go visit all the small, country-level distribution centers (DCs) in Europe and get them to consolidate into a single efficient pan-European operation.
Go visit research and development (R&D) and convince them to restrict their use of unique, customized parts and materials in new product designs.
Go visit the Asia Pacific Regional headquarters and get them to start up a sales and operations planning (S&OP) process.
You just started work last week. At this point you have no staff, no budget, no authority, and you don't know any of these people that you are supposed to go "straighten out." You can imagine how much these "target" groups want to have a new youngster show up from headquarters to tell them what to do. So, what are you going to do?
The setting: on-site to make a change
You're now on the ground at the target group; this might be the Asia Pacific headquarters, or a DC in Europe, or across the street in the sales department. It is a very large organization. Every function, product, and country manager is being measured on its own performance, and they all want to improve something. Senior managers are being pulled and pushed in many directions by different change initiatives. Most change leaders have become "one issue evangelists," standing on a soapbox and preaching their benefits to all who will listen. Win the hearts and minds! Convince the unwashed masses! You've heard the cries for Lean; total quality management; Six Sigma; just-in-time; single minute exchange of dies; collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment; perfect order; supply chain operations reference model (SCOR); and so forth.
What are you going to do? Find your own soapbox? Unless you are very skilled, becoming a loud advocate for one issue may get you labeled as a "one issue person," which may compromise your leadership opportunities in the future.
Let's look more closely at one situation, say, the Asia Pacific Regional headquarters (APRH). Your boss back at worldwide headquarters wants you to get APRH to institute an S&OP process. An S&OP process needs many functions to really buy into it. You avoid the soapbox approach and quietly start trying to figure out the lay of the land. What's going on here? You meet privately with the head of each major function to understand their perspective on things. Here is what you find: Several competing change programs are being espoused, and the company does not have the bandwidth to do all of them at once. Each functional leader has their own take on this:
Supply chain: The AP regional director of supply chain is in favor of starting an S&OP process but does not know how to make it happen. He has been pestered daily by one set of colleagues who wants to buy new enterprise resource planning (ERP) software and another group that wants to change the bonus system to tie to overall company performance. But he is not very interested in those issues, only starting up S&OP.
Finance: The AP chief financial officer does not have much interest in the S&OP process. She does not think it will affect her process. But she very much wants to buy new ERP software. She also thinks that changing the bonus system to tie to company financials is a bad idea (because it will mean more work for her staff).
Manufacturing: The AP director of manufacturing thinks an S&OP process will force his people to build against a changing forecast and hurt his ability to maximize machine utilization. He has heard all the arguments for new ERP software but does not care one way or the other. He thinks the new bonus system will finally reward the hard-working people in the plants, instead of having the sales team get undue credit.
Sales: The AP regional head of sales does not care either way about the S&OP process. She sees both advantages and disadvantages. She thinks a new ERP system will just mean much more paperwork to be filled out by the sales associates. And she likes the bonus system (that favors the salesforce) just the way it is currently. She does not want to see it changed.
Marketing: The AP vice president of marketing does not really know what an S&OP process is except that it will consume bandwidth that is better used on implementing new ERP software. The new software has product lifetime simulation capabilities that he really likes. And he also wants the bonus system changed to reward sales less and marketing more.
So, what did you find? Only one key manager (supply chain) favors starting the S&OP process, and two (manufacturing and marketing) are actually against it. Is it time for the soapbox?
Let's make a deal (quietly)
This scenario of multiple decision makers faced with multiple issues is quite common. Every legislature deals with this every day. Legend has it that U.S. Congressman Davy Crockett in 1835 was the first to call the act of trading votes behind the scenes, "logrolling." In this article, we show how a facilitator can skillfully use logrolling to achieve a deal and make change happen. Instead of becoming an evangelist to convince manufacturing and marketing to join the cause of S&OP, let's take a closer look at want we learned from the interviews. The result of the interviews can be shown as a chart.
The basis for logrolling here is to act as the matchmaker. Find decision makers who are neutral on each other's main issue and have them agree to support each other's issue. You are now trying to do this to get issue 1 (S&OP process) adopted. Focus on the people who are neutral on your issue, not on the people who are already against it. In the chart below, person 2 is "neutral" on issue 1 and "for" issue 2. Note that person 1 is the mirror image: "for" issue 1 and "neutral" on issue 2. You have an opportunity to have persons 1 and 2 agree to support each other's issue.
Before we go on, it is important to stress how delicate this negotiation should be. You need to approach both decision makers 1 and 2 with honesty, sincerity, and empathy. You are introducing two partners who must learn to trust each other. Each has to believe in the other person so that the negotiation does not seem flippant or mechanical. Your reputation as an honest broker is very important.
So far you now have two votes "for" S&OP and two votes "against" S&OP. Let's do the same thing again. In the chart shown below, person 4 is "neutral" on issue 1 and "against" issue 3. Note that person 1 is the mirror image: "for" issue 1 and "neutral" on issue 3. You have an opportunity to have persons 1 and 4 agree to support each other's issue.
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If you are successful in getting persons 1, 2, and 4 to agree to trade votes, then you will see the result shown below.
You now have three votes in favor of S&OP and only two against. And you did not have to become an evangelist to do it. By the way, your actions helped resolve the other two issues, one adopted and the other rejected. Your job was to start the S&OP process, so you have succeeded. And you preserved your reputation as an honest, even-keeled deal maker. A change agent.
Just a word of caution here. It is possible that another smart person is employed in the company who is working against your issue. Figure 5 shows an example of how the same set of circumstances could have been swung to the opposite outcome for your S&OP issue.
Notice the importance of person number 2. He or she is the swing vote, so it is smart to discover this possibility and secure his or her vote early in the process.
Teaching logrolling
Teaching logrolling is fun for both the students and the teacher. Initially, tell the students nothing about logrolling. Divide the students into groups of about six to eight people. Each student is given a card telling who they are role playing and what their position is on each of about three to four issues. The roles will be positions such as the head of sales, marketing, manufacturing, engineering, purchasing, and finance. For each issue, they will also be provided a sentence explaining why they are for, or against, or neutral on that issue. The roles and positions are crafted such that no issue has a majority of support for or against. The players are told each other's role but not their position on any issue. The group members are then given 15 minutes to decide what to do about these issues: adopt, reject, or reach a stalemate.
During those 15 minutes, you will see almost all students become evangelists for their favorite issue, for or against. Raised voices, impassioned arguments, arms flailing, and wild gesturing are the norm. The groups are then brought back together to report their outcomes and the methods employed. Loud shouting accompanied by little progress are typical. They are now primed to learn about logrolling.
At this time, the teacher shows some examples (as is done above in this article) of how logrolling can be used to quietly gather enough votes to adopt or reject various issues. Now the student groups are told to go back and try again to make progress, but this time students are given a small chart such as those above showing the position of each person on each issue. This time the students focus on forming alliances based on trading votes. Within a few minutes they have reached some decisions about the issues.
This method is particularly effecitve for newly minted master's graduates as they are unlikely to have the leadership resources that they will have later in their career (budget, staff, authority). Yet they are expected to "go make change happen." Logrolling is a valuable technique that they can use on day one. No big speeches, no flamboyance, and no grandstanding are required. Just listening, taking notes, and a bit of matchmaking. The role-playing workshop that begins with a visceral shouting match and ends with a simple, quiet decision-making process drives home the value of logrolling as a leadership technique.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”