John H. Boyd (jhb@theboydcompany.com) is founder and principal of The Boyd Co., Inc. Founded in 1975 in Princeton, New Jersey, and now based in Boca Raton, Florida, the firm provides independent site selection counsel to leading U.S. and overseas corporations. Organizations served by John over the years are many and varied and include The World Bank, The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), MIT’s groundbreaking Work of the Future Project, UPS, Canada's Privy Council and most recently, the President’s National Economic Council providing insights on policies to reduce supply chain bottlenecks.
Distribution warehousing continues to be one of the hottest sectors of the supply chain—indeed one of the hottest sectors of our national economy. With this growth, however, has come increased costs and a series of new challenges that logistics and distribution professionals must juggle.
When it comes to deciding where to locate a warehouse facility, comparative operating costs have always played a key role. But due to uncertainties over trade and tariffs, slim margins within the booming e-commerce space, and soaring real estate prices, our clients are focusing on the bottom line more than ever before.
Article Figures
[Figure 1] Warehousing hot spots: Total annual geographically variable operating costsEnlarge this image
In hot warehousing markets, double-digit percentage increases in land prices are the rule, not the exception. In the northern and central New Jersey warehousing market, for example, the average price for a large parcel of prime warehouse land has hit the $2-million-per-acre mark, up 16% from last year. In California's popular Inland Empire, land prices are also soaring, up over 20% from last year, easily reaching $1 million per acre. The Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania is up 18% to $206,000 per acre; North Las Vegas, Nevada, is up 16% to $260,000 per acre; Chicago, Illinois, is up 19% to $327,000 per acre; Atlanta, Georgia, is up 17% to $145,000 per acre; and Houston, Texas, is up 14% to $228,000 per acre.
These same warehousing markets are also experiencing strong gains in lease rates, as demand continues to outpace the supply of prime warehouse space. Lease rates over $10 per square feet are now common in many hot coastal markets in the Northeast, California, and the Pacific Northwest.
These inflationary cost pressures are not expected to moderate anytime soon. We are forecasting overall warehousing costs to increase by 9.2% in 2019, even allowing for a year-over-year moderation in fuel and truckload rates.
Given these high costs, it is important for warehouse owners and renters to keep a close eye on variations among different locations. The comparative cost of operating a warehouse (accounting for labor, land, warehouse construction, power, and taxes) can vary dramatically, even within the same geographic region of the country. Figure 1 compares the cost of operating a typical 500,000-square-foot warehouse in a series of cities increasingly on our company's relocation radar screen. In the Northeast, for example, annual operating costs in Dedham, Massachusetts, are 26% higher than in Pittston, Pennsylvania—a hotbed of new warehousing activity in northeastern Pennsylvania between Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. In the Southeast, annual operating costs range from a high of $12.3 million in Hialeah Gardens, Florida—just outside Miami—to a low of $10.6 million in St. George, South Carolina—near Charleston—a differential of 16%.
Bigger, taller, more urban
The increased focus on comparative cost is not the only major trend that we are seeing in the market. Today, our warehousing clients are constructing facilities that are larger than ever before. Our average building requirement over the past year has been over 700,000 square feet, with a number of projects calling for more than 1 million square feet. Our e-commerce clients, in particular, are in need of two to three times the space of traditional warehouses due to the wide range of products that they need to have under one roof and the labor requirements for picking, packing, order fulfillment, and customer servicing.
Ceiling heights have also nearly doubled to 40 feet clear, as our clients seek to accommodate mezzanines, new cranes, robotic systems, and even drones. The higher ceilings also improve ventilation and create a better work environment. (Think of how claustrophobic workers would feel in a million-square-foot warehouse with only a 20-foot ceiling.)
In addition, we are siting more warehouses closer to major urban population centers. Some of the hottest real estate markets in the country are being fueled by warehousing demand, such as in and around New York City, New York.; Los Angeles, California; Chicago, Illinois; Miami, Florida; and the Bay Area in California. By locating their warehouses close to these and other major markets,our clients are better equipped to meet the demand for same-day and next-day deliveries, especially for products with a short shelf life.
The cold chain heats up
Demand is also growing for cold storage facilities. The United States' instant gratification mentality has already impacted the supply chain for most consumer goods and how they are warehoused and fast-tracked to consumers. Look for the next growth spurt to come from the online grocery sector, which our firm's BizCosts unit is forecasting to grow fourfold over the next six years. We estimate that online grocery retailing will generate another $100 billion of online food sales and create the need for 100 million square feet of new cold storage warehouse space.
While the food and beverage sector is fueling most of the new demand for cold storage space, another major driver is coming from pharmaceutical companies with products like vaccines and blood plasma that need to be maintained at specific temperatures throughout the supply chain. Third-party logistics supplier DHL is investing some $150 million in new warehouse facilities in major areas for pharmaceutical and medical devices production, including Raleigh, North Carolina; suburban Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Indianapolis, Indiana; and Memphis, Tennessee.
These trends will make it even more difficult to find suitable cold storage space. Our warehousing clients are already experiencing severe shortages of existing cold storage space—especially freezer—in major food-processing states like California, Oregon, and Washington in the West and Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin in the U.S. Heartland. The shortage is most pronounced in the high-growth states of Texas and Florida.
Severe labor shortages
Cold storage space is not the only thing in high demand. With unemployment rates at historic lows, ourwarehousing clients are facing labor shortages not seen in decades. While many industries are affected by these tight labor markets, the warehousing field—especially the more labor-intensive fulfillment sector—is especially hard hit.
A chief reason is that warehouses and fulfillment centers tend to cluster in certain cities and in certain industrial parks because of their common need for zoning; major highway and/or rail access; and level, buildable, and affordable real estate. In addition to the record low unemployment rates, our warehousing clients are also facing the continuing wave of retirements among the baby boomer generation.
The challenge to our clients' human resources departments is coming from both ends of the hiring spectrum. They are having trouble finding qualified people not only for warehouse operations (such as for warehouse workers, pickers, packers, and material handlers) but also for high-tech support jobs in fields like data analysis, robotics, cyber security, and artificial intelligence.
As a result, our warehousing clients are increasingly interested in labor-market characteristics such as the ability to hire ex?military personnel, access to public transportation in order to tap inner?city labor pools, the availability of leading?edge skills in cyber security, and the tenor of labor?management relations in the area. At the end of the day, the labor factor is playing a greater role in warehouse site selection than ever before.
A new day
In spite of these challenges, however, it is an exciting time to be in warehousing and logistics. We are entering a new era and are witnessing new, technology-fueled opportunities thatwere not even imaginable a few years ago. Our industry is seeing innovations like drone and autonomous delivery techniques and new, green-friendlyenergy intelligence systems that curb powerconsumption within the warehouse.
With the industry now accounting for almost 12% of U.S. gross domestic product, it has even generated enough attention to be recognized with an official "day" on the U.S. National Day Calendar. June 28, 2019 was the first National Logistics Day. Let's circle our calendars now and plan to toast this great industry on June 28, 2020.
Supply Chain Xchange Executive Editor Susan Lacefield moderates a panel discussion with Supply Chain Xchange's Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award Winners (from left to right) Annette Danek-Akey, Sherry Harriman, Leslie O'Regan, and Ammie McAsey.
Supply Chain Xchange recognized four women who have made significant contributions to the supply chain management profession today with its second annual Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award. The award winners include Annette Danek-Akey, Chief Supply Chain Officer at Barnes & Noble; Sherry Harriman, Senior Vice President of Logistics and Supply Chain for Academy Sports + Outdoors; Leslie O’Regan, Director of Product Management for DC Systems & 3PLs at American Eagle Outfitters; and Ammie McAsey, Senior Vice President of Customer Distribution Experience for McKesson’s U.S. Pharmaceutical division.
Throughout their careers, these four supply chain executive have demonstrated strategic thinking, innovative problem solving, and effective leadership as well as a commitment to giving back to the profession.
The awards were presented at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference in Nashville, Tenn. In addition to the awards presentation, the leaders discussed their leadership philosophies and career path during a panel discussion at the EDGE conference.
The surge of “nearshoring” supply chains from China to Mexico offers obvious benefits in cost, geography, and shipping time, as long as U.S. companies are realistic about smoothing out the challenges of the burgeoning trend, according to a panel today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
Those challenges span a list including: developing infrastructure, weak security, manual processes, and shifting regulations, speakers said in a session titled “Nearshoring: Transforming Surface Transportation in the U.S.”
For example, a recent Mexican government rail expansion added lines to tourist destinations in Cancun instead of freight capacity in the Southwest, said panelist Edward Habe, Vice President of Mexico Sales, for Averitt. Truckload cargo inspections may rely on a single person looking at paper filings on the border, instead of a 24/7 online system, said Bob McCloskey, Director for Logistics and Distribution at Clarios, LLC. And business partners inside Mexico often have undisclosed tier-two, tier-three, and tier-four relationships that are difficult to track from the U.S., said Beth Kussatz, Manager of Northern American Network Design & Implementation, Deere & Co.
Still, dedicated companies can work with Mexican authorities, regulators, and providers to overcome those bottlenecks with clever solutions, the panelists agreed. “Don’t be afraid,” Habe said. “It just makes sense in today’s world, the local regionalization of manufacturing. It’s in our interest that this works.”
A quick reaction in the first 24 hours is critical for keeping your business running after a cyberattack, according to Estes Express Lines, the less than truckload (LTL) carrier whose computer systems were struck by hackers in October, 2023.
Immediately after discovering the breach, the company cut off their internet, called in a third-party information technology (IT) support team, and then used their only remaining tools—employees’ personal email and phone contacts—to start reaching out to their shipper clients. The message on Day One: even though the company was reduced to running the business with paper and pencil instead of computers, they were still picking up loads on time with trucks.
“Customers never want to hear bad news, but they really don’t want to hear bad news from someone other than you,” the company’s president and COO, Webb Estes, said in a session today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
After five or six painful days, Estes transitioned from paper back to computers. But they continued sending clients daily video updates from their president, and putting their chief information officer on conference calls to answer specific questions.
Although lawyers had advised them not to be so open, the strategy worked. It took 19 days to get all computer systems running again, but at the end of the first month they had returned to 85% of their original client list, and now have 99% back, Estes said in the session called “Hackers are Always Probing: Cybersecurity Recovery and Prevention Lessons Learned.”
As the final hours tick away before a potential longshoreman’s strike begins at midnight on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, experts say the ripples of that move could roll across the entire U.S. supply chains for weeks.
While some of the nation’s largest retailers were able to pull their imports forward in recent weeks to soften the blow, “the average supply chain is ill-prepared for this,” Tom Nightingale, the former CEO of AFS Logistics, said in a panel discussion today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
Despite that grim prognosis, a strike seems virtually unavoidable, CSCMP President & CEO Mark Baxa said from the stage. At latest report, the White House had declined to force the feuding parties back into arbitration through its executive power, and a voluntary last-minute session had failed to unite the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)’s 45,000 union members with the United States Maritime Alliance that manages the 36 ports covered under their expiring contract.
The ultimate impact of a resulting strike will depend largely on how long it lasts, the panelists said. With a massive flow of 140,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) of shipping containers moving through the two coasts each week, each day of a strike will require 7 to 10 days of recovery for most types of goods, Nightingale said.
Shippers are desperately seeking coping mechanisms, but at this point the damage will add up fast, whether a strike lasts for an optimistic “option A” of just 48 to 72 hours, a pessimistic “Option B” of 7 to 10 days, or even longer, agreed Jon Monroe, president of Jon Monroe Consulting.
The first full day of CSCMP’s EDGE 2024 conference ended with the telling of a great American story.
Author and entrepreneur Fawn Weaver explained how she stumbled across the little-known story of Nathan Green and, in deciding to tell that story, launched the fastest-growing and most award-winning whiskey brand of the past five years—and how she also became the first African American woman to lead a major spirits company.
Weaver is CEO of Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey, a company she founded in 2016 and that is part of her larger private investment business, Grant Sidney, Inc. Weaver told the story of "Nearest" Green—as Nathan Green was known in his hometown of Lynchburg, Tenn.—to Agile Business Media & Events Chairman Mitch MacDonald, in a keynote interview Monday afternoon.
As it turns out, Green—who was born into slavery and freed after the Civil War—was the first master distiller for the Jack Daniel’s Whiskey brand. His story was well-known among the local descendants of both Daniel and Green, but a mystery in the larger world of bourbon and a missing piece of American history and culture. Through extensive research and interviews with descendants of the Daniel and Green families, Weaver discovered what she describes as a positive American story.
“I believed it was a story of love, honor, and respect,” she told MacDonald during the interview. “I believed it was a great American story.”
Weaver told the story in her best-selling book, Love & Whiskey: The Remarkable True Story of Jack Daniel, His Master Distiller Nearest Green, and the Improbable Rise of Uncle Nearest, and has channeled it into an even larger story with the founding of the brand. Today, Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey is made at a 323-acre distillery in Shelbyville, Tenn.—the first distillery in U.S. history to commemorate an African American and the only major distillery in the world owned and operated by a Black person.
Weaver and MacDonald's wide-ranging discussion covered the barriers Weaver encountered in bringing the brand to life, her vision for where it’s headed, and her take on the supply chain—which she said she views as both a necessary cost of doing business and an opportunity.
“[It’s] an opportunity if you can move quickly,” she said, emphasizing a recent project to fast-track a new Uncle Nearest product in which collaborating with the company’s supply chain partners was vital.
Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey has earned more than 600 awards, including “World’s Best” by Whisky Magazine two years in a row, the “Double Gold” by San Francisco World Spirits Competition, and Wine Enthusiast’s “Spirit Brand of the Year.”
CSCMP’s EDGE 2024 runs through Wednesday, October 2, at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel & Convention Center in Nashville.