International trade community struggles to deal with tariff revisions
Keeping up with quickly fluctuating tariffs and trade policies requires good communication and the ability to act on short notice, according to speakers at the 2019 Northeast Cargo Symposium.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
Brenda Smith of U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the agency is workinig to make communications "as predictable and detailed as possible."
President Trump's erratic approach to the imposition of tariffs on imports from China and elsewhere is making it difficult for companies to comply with U.S. trade regulations, according to government and corporate trade officials gathered at the recent Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's (CONECT) 18th Annual Northeast Cargo Symposium in Providence, R.I. The lack of predictability and sometimes insufficient advance notice is challenging importers, customs brokers, software vendors, and even U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—the agency that assesses and collects tariff payments—to stay ahead of the changes, they said during the November 6 conference.
Choosing her words carefully, Brenda Brockman Smith, CBP's executive assistant commissioner, Office of Trade, noted in a speech to the CONECT audience that the agency is working in a "very active, changeable trade environment." Because "knowing what will happen so companies can plan is critical to U.S. economic growth," CBP is devoting resources to helping the trade community manage customs compliance in this environment, she said.
CBP is working to implement a combination of automation updates and communications to the trade community that are "as predictable and detailed as possible," Smith said. The agency has set up a special team tasked with carrying out changes related to the implementation of trade remedies such as tariffs and penalties, she also said. That unit works closely with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Commerce to coordinate information about the tariffs and enforcement, she added.
Customs is also communicating to policymakers in other areas of the federal government the impact that tariff changes are having on U.S. businesses' customs-compliance efforts—"an important role CBP can play," Smith said.
Ready or not ...
Any tariff revision requires communication, process, documentation, and IT programming updates, not only for CBP but also for importers, customs brokers, and providers of trade-compliance software. In some cases, though, the exact details aren't available until very late in the game.
In a separate conference panel discussion, Geoffrey Powell, chairman of the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), cited the example of tariffs President Trump said he would impose on imports from Mexico unless that country stemmed the flow of U.S.-bound migrants. In late May, Trump ordered the tariffs to be imposed with just 10 days' notice, and then suddenly canceled them by tweet the Friday night before the Monday effective date. "We found out one [business] day prior to the effective date that they were canceled. It's hard to get everything ready in those circumstances," Powell said.
One of the most effective strategies for managing compliance in an era of fluctuating trade policies, according to one panelist, is to have a highly structured process for quickly identifying what needs to change and communicating that information to all affected parties. This is critical in a large, multinational organization, said Barb Secor, senior director, trade compliance for the technical equipment manufacturer Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Secor related how she and her team had to quickly jump into action when the U.S. issued a ban on doing business with one of Thermo Fisher's customers, the Chinese tech giant Huawei. "Our company has 18 different divisions. We had to think about who would immediately need to know about this worldwide," she said. The trade-compliance team had developed a formal process for monitoring changes and then cascading information and related company policies to the relevant functions in all of Thermo Fisher's divisions. Local managers then follow a specified procedure for alerting affected organizations further down the ladder. Everyone is also advised where to go for more information or assistance, Secor said. This methodology has also proven effective for dealing with the changes in tariffs on Chinese goods, she added.
In many cases, international traders and software vendors must wait for CBP to issue instructions and reprogram its systems before they can make their own updates. That creates challenges for trade-compliance software vendors, said Celeste Catano, global product manager for BluJay Solutions and a licensed customs broker. CBP is sometimes unable to have its programming in place early enough for software vendors to fully test and deploy the update in advance of the effective date, she noted.
CBP's Smith acknowledged that it's difficult for all of the players to program, test, and implement changes on short notice; she advised any party that is not ready by the time tariffs or other trade-related policies go into effect to discuss their situation with CBP. "We will work with you if we know you are trying to comply and will try to help you find a solution," she said.
When asked how CBP has been affected by frequent changes in leadership at the agency as well as its parent Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), Smith said that it's a challenge to navigate the interplay of government and politics, especially in the "very interesting times" the agency is working in now. She noted that former CBP Acting Commissioner Kevin McAleenan's move to Acting DHS Secretary—a position he later resigned—had caused some disruption internally (current Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan is the second to take that position since McAleenan went to DHS in April 2019), but that everyone recognizes the need to "evolve and change to deal with change." CBP's new leadership, she added, recognizes the agency's internal expertise and trusts the staff and career officers to "keep on going ... and get the job done."
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.