International trade community struggles to deal with tariff revisions
Keeping up with quickly fluctuating tariffs and trade policies requires good communication and the ability to act on short notice, according to speakers at the 2019 Northeast Cargo Symposium.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
Brenda Smith of U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the agency is workinig to make communications "as predictable and detailed as possible."
President Trump's erratic approach to the imposition of tariffs on imports from China and elsewhere is making it difficult for companies to comply with U.S. trade regulations, according to government and corporate trade officials gathered at the recent Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's (CONECT) 18th Annual Northeast Cargo Symposium in Providence, R.I. The lack of predictability and sometimes insufficient advance notice is challenging importers, customs brokers, software vendors, and even U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—the agency that assesses and collects tariff payments—to stay ahead of the changes, they said during the November 6 conference.
Choosing her words carefully, Brenda Brockman Smith, CBP's executive assistant commissioner, Office of Trade, noted in a speech to the CONECT audience that the agency is working in a "very active, changeable trade environment." Because "knowing what will happen so companies can plan is critical to U.S. economic growth," CBP is devoting resources to helping the trade community manage customs compliance in this environment, she said.
CBP is working to implement a combination of automation updates and communications to the trade community that are "as predictable and detailed as possible," Smith said. The agency has set up a special team tasked with carrying out changes related to the implementation of trade remedies such as tariffs and penalties, she also said. That unit works closely with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Commerce to coordinate information about the tariffs and enforcement, she added.
Customs is also communicating to policymakers in other areas of the federal government the impact that tariff changes are having on U.S. businesses' customs-compliance efforts—"an important role CBP can play," Smith said.
Ready or not ...
Any tariff revision requires communication, process, documentation, and IT programming updates, not only for CBP but also for importers, customs brokers, and providers of trade-compliance software. In some cases, though, the exact details aren't available until very late in the game.
In a separate conference panel discussion, Geoffrey Powell, chairman of the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), cited the example of tariffs President Trump said he would impose on imports from Mexico unless that country stemmed the flow of U.S.-bound migrants. In late May, Trump ordered the tariffs to be imposed with just 10 days' notice, and then suddenly canceled them by tweet the Friday night before the Monday effective date. "We found out one [business] day prior to the effective date that they were canceled. It's hard to get everything ready in those circumstances," Powell said.
One of the most effective strategies for managing compliance in an era of fluctuating trade policies, according to one panelist, is to have a highly structured process for quickly identifying what needs to change and communicating that information to all affected parties. This is critical in a large, multinational organization, said Barb Secor, senior director, trade compliance for the technical equipment manufacturer Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Secor related how she and her team had to quickly jump into action when the U.S. issued a ban on doing business with one of Thermo Fisher's customers, the Chinese tech giant Huawei. "Our company has 18 different divisions. We had to think about who would immediately need to know about this worldwide," she said. The trade-compliance team had developed a formal process for monitoring changes and then cascading information and related company policies to the relevant functions in all of Thermo Fisher's divisions. Local managers then follow a specified procedure for alerting affected organizations further down the ladder. Everyone is also advised where to go for more information or assistance, Secor said. This methodology has also proven effective for dealing with the changes in tariffs on Chinese goods, she added.
In many cases, international traders and software vendors must wait for CBP to issue instructions and reprogram its systems before they can make their own updates. That creates challenges for trade-compliance software vendors, said Celeste Catano, global product manager for BluJay Solutions and a licensed customs broker. CBP is sometimes unable to have its programming in place early enough for software vendors to fully test and deploy the update in advance of the effective date, she noted.
CBP's Smith acknowledged that it's difficult for all of the players to program, test, and implement changes on short notice; she advised any party that is not ready by the time tariffs or other trade-related policies go into effect to discuss their situation with CBP. "We will work with you if we know you are trying to comply and will try to help you find a solution," she said.
When asked how CBP has been affected by frequent changes in leadership at the agency as well as its parent Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), Smith said that it's a challenge to navigate the interplay of government and politics, especially in the "very interesting times" the agency is working in now. She noted that former CBP Acting Commissioner Kevin McAleenan's move to Acting DHS Secretary—a position he later resigned—had caused some disruption internally (current Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan is the second to take that position since McAleenan went to DHS in April 2019), but that everyone recognizes the need to "evolve and change to deal with change." CBP's new leadership, she added, recognizes the agency's internal expertise and trusts the staff and career officers to "keep on going ... and get the job done."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."