Report: Logistics real estate well positioned to weather coronavirus-related volatility
Logistics is well positioned to manage changes in real estate capital markets and is likely to benefit from long-term demand for inventory and an increase in ecommerce as a result of COVID-19 disruptions, study shows.
Victoria Kickham, an editor at large for Supply Chain Quarterly, started her career as a newspaper reporter in the Boston area before moving into B2B journalism. She has covered manufacturing, distribution and supply chain issues for a variety of publications in the industrial and electronics sectors, and now writes about everything from forklift batteries to omnichannel business trends for Supply Chain Quarterly's sister publication, DC Velocity.
As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to threaten global supply chains, at least one segment of the logistics industry is maintaining a positive outlook: real estate. Although sure to feel negative effects in the short term, logistics real estate is likely to prove resilient in the longer term and generate positive demand via rising inventory levels and accelerating e-commerce adoption, according to a March study by logistics real estate firm Prologis.
But there will be pain before the gain. COVID-19, the respiratory illness that began in China and is now a global pandemic, has slowed manufacturing activity in China and stalled cargo shipments from the region. In a March 6 presentation, executives from supply chain software firm Resilinc reported a 20% drop in ocean traffic from China since the outbreak began and noted that many ships are leaving the region only partially full—in some cases at 20% to 35% capacity. U.S. ports are feeling the effects of the situation; the Port of Oakland reported a 9% drop in February imports Friday, citing the effects of COVID-19 on manufacturing and the supply chain.
Such heightened supply chain risks introduce new long-term trends that could boost demand for real estate, however. Prologis says the slower movement of goods will lead to a shortage of activity in logistics real estate in the near term followed by a replenishment surge later on. Rising demand for e-commerce and increasing diversification of manufacturing locations may also affect the outlook.
"Historically, this kind of volatility has correlated with stronger demand for logistics real estate. Two examples—Brexit and the U.S.-China tariff implementation—were followed by historically strong levels of net absorption in the UK and U.S.," Prologis wrote in its special report COVID-19 and Implications for Logistics Real Estate.
In the short term, Prologis says demand may soften, freeing up space. But the situation could be short-lived as some customers "race to gain lost ground and expand their needs for facilities in support of business continuity and higher service levels."
Uncertainty remains a key factor, however, and the authors emphasize that COVID-19 remains the most serious risk so far to the lengthy global economic expansion. But they point to three areas of change that, together, may translate to higher levels of demand for warehouses and industrial space once the uncertainty has subsided:
Rising inventory levels. "By design, supply chains minimize inventories to distribute goods at low cost. They don't tolerate volatility, which leads to lost sales and revenues. In the past, events such as natural disasters and work stoppages at ports have led to step changes in inventory practices," the authors wrote. "In the wake of COVID-19, customers are likely to reassess ideal inventory volumes and business continuity plans—which could translate to greater demand."
Continued e-commerce adoption. "The current expansion has been characterized by the emergence of online shopping, which grew by 16.7% globally in 2019," the authors also wrote. "COVID-19 doesn't seem likely to change any of that; instead, it may increase the speed of adoption and the number of consumers who shop online. Given its value proposition, especially in the hardest-hit markets, e-commerce may rise in even greater importance in the basic functioning of everyday life."
Diversifying manufacturing locations. "COVID-19 may accelerate another structural trend: pushing manufacturing to new locations. Aided by industry 4.0 trends that boost productivity, manufacturers have been evolving their global supply chain strategies, increasingly emphasizing near-adjacent locations (such as Mexico and Central and Eastern Europe) alongside reshoring," they wrote. "Strategies that focus on the consumption end of supply chains will not be affected by these trends. While production-end locations alone are not a major investment strategy, this broadening of manufacturers creates second-order demand through both suppliers and networks that serve blossoming consumer markets."
Supply chains today are facing an onslaught of disruption and change from geopolitical events to technological advances to economic shifts. Supply chain partners that successfully navigate those changes together will seize a competitive advantage that will win them market share and increase profits.
The “2025 Third-Party Logistics Study,” spearheaded by Dr. C. John Langley of Penn State University and developed in collaboration withNTT DATAand Penske Logistics highlights the crucial role that change management plays in the relationship between third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and their customers. Unveiled today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE conference, the study delves into the dynamic nature of relationships between shippers (companies that manufacture goods or provide services) and third-party logistics providers.
“While users and providers of 3PL services continue to report successful relationships, they find themselves having to deal with an increasingly wide range of challenges,” said Dr. C. John Langley, Professor, Supply Chain & Information Systems, Penn State University. “While examples include economic concerns, geopolitical unrest, and changing markets for supply chain services, they also are taking advantage of change management processes to benefit from new and improved capabilities such as artificial intelligence (AI) and direct-to-customer proficiencies.”
The survey found that both shippers (61%) and 3PLs (73%) agree that supply chain change management is vital. Respondents from both groups indicated that the top factors that are driving the need to change their operations were shifting customer demands, economic factors, and technological advancements. In particular, both shippers and 3PLs believe that improvement and change is needed in supply chain visibility, with 69% of shippers and 68% of 3PLs citing it as an area of concern.
AI as change agent
One technological advance that is enabling change in supply chain operations, according to survey respondents, is AI. Both shippers and 3PLs agree that AI can be pivotal in automating data analysis, identifying patterns, solving problems, and automating repetitive tasks. Top implementation areas for AI cited by respondents include supply planning and demand forecasting (33% of shippers and 19% of 3PLs) and transportation and route optimization (27% of shippers and 22% of 3PLs).
The e-commerce effect continues
Omnichannel retailing and e-commerce continue to exert pressure on supply chain operations for shippers and their third-party logistics partners. Both shippers and 3PLs view delivery speed and visibility as strong areas of differentiation. According to the study, 48% of shippers and 53% of 3PLs reported that customers routinely expect deliveries in less than two days, and 27% of shippers and 26% of 3PLs noted that there are three-day or less delivery expectations. Shippers (44%) and 3PLs (38%) are willing to absorb a small percentage of the costs related to shipping speeds.
The Annual 3PL Study surveys 3PL providers and users of 3PL services to understand the current state of 3PLs and how 3PL relationships are evolving with their customers. The 2025 study and past versions are available for download at www.3PLStudy.com.
Container flows at dozens of U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports shuddered to a simultaneous stop this morning when dockworkers launched a promised strike over pay levels and job automation.
The action is affecting work at major locations such as New York/New Jersey, Savannah, Houston, Charleston, Norfolk, Miami, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Boston, Mobile, Tampa, and Wilmington. That broad span of geographic locations will affect imports and exports for industries spanning retail, automotive, agriculture, food and beverage, and manufacturing, according to an analysis by Overhaul.
Those impacts are forecast to grow rapidly with each additional day the strike continues, since more than 100 vessels are estimated to arrive at the 36 affected ports this week alone, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. The recovery from that backup could take some time, as some shippers estimate that for every one week of strike, it will take 4-6 weeks to fully recover, the firm said.
Because of the sudden stop, logistics providers today are quickly reaching out to shippers and other clients to plan for future cargo movements. Specifically, the strike immediately froze a range of work such as the movement of import and export containers and the loading and unloading of containers, according to German maritime transportation provider Hapag-Lloyd AG. “As a result of this situation, which is beyond our control, we will need to adjust our services or temporarily suspend operations as conditions evolve. Our priority remains the protection of your cargo during this period,” Hapag-Lloyd AG said in a note to shippers.
Despite those large impacts, the timeline is unclear for finding a resolution of negotiations between the union—the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)—and the port management group, United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).
Under those conditions, retail and manufacturing groups have renewed their calls for their White House to step in and force workers back on the job while negotiations resume.
One of those voices came the National Retail Federation (NRF). “NRF urges President Biden to use any and all available authority and tools — including use of the Taft-Hartley Act — to immediately restore operations at all impacted container ports, get the parties back to the negotiating table and ensure there are no further disruptions,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “A disruption of this scale during this pivotal moment in our nation’s economic recovery will have devastating consequences for American workers, their families and local communities. After more than two years of runaway inflationary pressures and in the midst of recovery from Hurricane Helene, this strike will result in further hardship for American families.”
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Flying Ship CEO Bill Peterson poses with a model of his unmanned ground-effect maritime cargo craft.
Perfect Planner, a cloud-based platform designed to streamline the material planning and replenishment process, and Flying Ship, an unmanned ground-effect maritime cargo craft, took home the second annual “3 V’s of Supply Chain Innovation Awards” tonight at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
This awards contest is hosted by Supply Chain Xchange and 3 V’s framework creator and supply chain visionary Art Mesher. It serves to recognize those companies that have created technology or automation solutions that exemplify Mesher’s 3 V’s framework of “embracing variability, harnessing visibility, and competing with velocity.”
Business Innovation Award
Art Mesher, creator of the 3 V's Framework (left) and Rick Blasgen (right), former CSCMP President and CEO, present Tom Biel (center), CEO of Perfect Planner, with the 3 V's Business Innovation Award.
Susan Lacefield
Perfect Planner won the 3 V’s Business Innovation Award for its software solution that uses artificial intelligence to automatically generates daily "to-do lists" for material planners/buyers. All the “to-do’s” are ranked in order of criticality. The solution also uses advanced analytics to understand and address inventory shortages and surpluses.
The two other finalists for the Business Innovation Award were AutoScheduler AI, a predictive warehouse optimization platform, and Davinci Micro Fulfillment, which provides a micro fulfillment service out of a network for small distribution centers across the United States.
Best Overall Startup Award
Flying Ship was awarded the Best Overall Startup Award. The company has designed an unmanned flying ground-effect maritime vessel. Although the Flying Ship looks like a small aircraft or large drone, it is classified as a maritime vessel because it does not leave the air cushion over the waves, similar to a hovercraft.
According to Flying Ship CEO Bill Peterson, the craft is 75% less expensive than a traditional aircraft and “faster than anything on water.” The prototype has a wingspan of 6.5 feet and can be scaled up to deliver 10,000 pounds of freight to “anywhere with a coastline” using autonomous systems.
The other startup finalist included Arkestro, a predictive procurement orchestration solution, and Provision AI, an optimized replenishment and transportation scheduling solution.
On Monday morning at CSCMP’s 2024 EDGE Conference, Darcy MacClaren, chief revenue office, digital supply chain, at technology company SAP, lead a lively discussion with a panel of women supply chain leaders on how to recruit, retain, and empower future supply chain leaders.
Panelists included Cindy Cochovity, executive vice president of strategic development at software company FreightPath; Heather Dohrn, chief commercial officer at trucking company Dohrn Transfer Company; Jennifer Kobus, senior vice president of supply chain planning and operations at retailer Ulta Beauty; Ammie McAsey, senior vice president of customer distribution experience at pharmaceutical company McKesson; and Michelle Williams, a supply chain teacher at Clyde C. Miller Career Academy, a high school in St. Louis, Missouri.
Touching on more than just the challenges they faced in supply chain as women, the panelists spoke about creating “destination" companies—places where top talent can work, grow, and thrive. According to MacClaren, younger workers “want more than just competitive compensation—they want to feel appreciated, involved, and inspired. They seek a workplace with a strong, inclusive culture that aligns with their values, offers meaningful work, and provides an opportunity for growth and development.”
The panel covered an array of topics including how to inspire the next generation of talent, strategies for engaging and coaching young professionals, how to attract diversity, and how to address change management. In addition, they shared personal experiences that helped them achieve their leadership roles and ended with some key takeaways for the audience members.
Here’s a snapshot of action items from the discussion:
1. Ensure a diverse slate of candidates for open positions.
2. Leverage internal and external networks to find diverse candidates.
3. Nurture and mentor new hires to help them thrive.
4. Remain authentic, vulnerable, and transparent as a leader.
5. Advocate for yourself and your career progression, not just for your team.
6. Seek out mentors and advocates, especially other women in leadership positions.
7. Open doors and bring others in, regardless of your own position.
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Supply Chain Xchange Executive Editor Susan Lacefield moderates a panel discussion with Supply Chain Xchange's Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award Winners (from left to right) Annette Danek-Akey, Sherry Harriman, Leslie O'Regan, and Ammie McAsey.
Supply Chain Xchange recognized four women who have made significant contributions to the supply chain management profession today with its second annual Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award. The award winners include Annette Danek-Akey, Chief Supply Chain Officer at Barnes & Noble; Sherry Harriman, Senior Vice President of Logistics and Supply Chain for Academy Sports + Outdoors; Leslie O’Regan, Director of Product Management for DC Systems & 3PLs at American Eagle Outfitters; and Ammie McAsey, Senior Vice President of Customer Distribution Experience for McKesson’s U.S. Pharmaceutical division.
Throughout their careers, these four supply chain executive have demonstrated strategic thinking, innovative problem solving, and effective leadership as well as a commitment to giving back to the profession.
The awards were presented at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference in Nashville, Tenn. In addition to the awards presentation, the leaders discussed their leadership philosophies and career path during a panel discussion at the EDGE conference.