The United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) goes into force in less than two weeks and is adding to an already challenging supply chain environment, as companies continue to deal with disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Logistics and transportation companies are at the forefront of helping shippers navigate the free trade agreement’s (FTA) rules, and they say bumps along the road are inevitable, but that the longer term outlook calls for smooth sailing thanks to the modernized deal, which replaces the 26-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
“Adjusting to any new regulations can be challenging,” said David Henry, head of operations in Mexico for freight broker and third-party logistics services provider (3PL) GlobalTranz. “Most shippers have had to make adjustments recently, due to the pandemic—and now with the clarification of USMCA requirements, they are making additional changes. However, looking to the future, once shippers have met the compliance standards, we anticipate more effective supply chain operations that will benefit companies throughout North America.”
USMCA—or CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) as it’s known in Canada and T-Mex (Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadáin) in Mexico—takes effect July 1 and is designed to improve and increase trade flow among North America’s three largest trading partners. The deal raises the amount of content that must be made or sourced in North America in order to achieve zero-tariff levels for some items (the “rules of origin” requirement) and also addresses environmental, labor, and enforcement issues. Rules governing e-commerce and the digital economy are also key, experts say, as they were not addressed under NAFTA.
Looking ahead to July 1, Henry and others say compliance, documentation, and navigating an already complex supply chain are the main issues facing shippers engaged in cross-border trade.
Compliance, complications
Working toward USMCA compliance requires communication and a thorough review of the rule of origin that applies to a firm’s particular goods, according to Jeff Simpson, trade policy manager for transportation and 3PL C.H. Robinson. Because content rules have changed, companies can’t assume that what they were shipping on June 30 still meets tariff requirements on July 1.
“It is important that companies review the rule of origination for their goods under USMCA and don’t make the mistake of assuming it will qualify for USMCA if it qualified for NAFTA,” Simpson explained. “Companies need to actively communicate both internally and externally to ensure all affected parties will be ready on July 1… Talk to your broker to develop a collaborative SOP [standard operating procedure] to handle the new FTA and ensure they are ready to go as well.”
Henry points out that USMCA includes important changes to the rules of origin for specific industries, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and cosmetics. He adds that businesses had been lacking final guidance on many issues until earlier this month, when the federal government published information detailing how the transition to USMCA will take place. The situation exacerbated an already challenging environment many companies were facing due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which created closures across supply chains.
“That is something that many industry leaders and private organizations were waiting on,” Henry said of the updated guidance. “[This tells us], specifically, how all this will take place. Having this now really allows for planning at a high level.”
The difference is in the documents
Kevin Doucette, director of North American trade policy and compliance at C.H. Robinson, says the transport of goods across borders should look relatively the same on July 1 as it does today. The key difference is in the documentation companies will use to claim USMCA compliance. The USMCA does not require a specific compliance form, as NAFTA does, and instead allows companies to make a claim in multiple formats, including electronically.
“Since this is not a formalized form … customs brokerage departments could have a difficult time determining where this information resides,” he explained, adding that “brokerage departments and customers should be collaborating on a [procedure] to ensure that a process is in place for a smooth transition. If not, you could see missed opportunities where a certification was present but a claim was not made or, conversely, a claim being made by a brokerage department with no certification in hand, [creating] a compliance issue.”
Henry agrees that initial disruptions may occur as companies work through the new processes and shift their supply base as needed based on sourcing requirements. He also agrees that communication and careful preparation will help ensure success amid the many other challenges facing the logistics sector.
“... shippers that are working proactively to address these challenges will be better suited for effective, compliant processes across their supply chains,” Henry said. “The pandemic continues to present challenges for shippers, especially now as the U.S. continues to reopen. We’re already seeing disruptions created by a combination of pent-up demand and the industry slowly coming back online. We’re working with customers right now to share daily market updates, and how market volatility is affecting capacity. We’re also navigating new routing guides to find opportunities in volume that didn’t exist before.”
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”