Like so many things in 2020, the script we’ve been working from has required multiple rewrites. But now it’s time to put a cap on a tumultuous year—and an eventful career.
This time last year, the team here at AGiLE Business Media was feeling upbeat about 2020.Business was humming along nicely, and we were gearing up for a couple of major organizational changes.
We unveiled the first in early December, when we announced the promotion of Publisher Gary Master to the role of COO. It was the most well-deserved promotion I’ve ever been honored to make. Gary is not only smart, hardworking, and savvy, he is also kind, thoughtful, and compassionate—exactly the person to lead our enterprise into the future.
So, as we rang in 2020, we were looking forward to what was shaping up to be a record year. The stars were aligned. What could go wrong?
The first inkling that 2020 was not going to go according to plan came at the beginning of March. During the week leading up to MHI’s Modex show, I was in Washington, D.C., covering the spring meeting of the Industrial Truck Association. While I was there, news began filtering in that a lethal virus first reported in China had made its way to these shores. On the second night of the meeting, I was having dinner with George Prest and John Paxton, MHI’s CEO and COO, respectively. Sometime between the main course and dessert, both John’s and George’s phones started to blow up. Their team, already on the Modex show floor, was calling to alert them to a brewing crisis: Several exhibitors were canceling at the last minute, citing health and safety concerns.
It was at that moment that I realized that this virus was something to be taken seriously. Very seriously.
In the end, the Modex Show went on, albeit in slightly diminished form. But while we were there, the public health crisis escalated. By the second day of the show, March 10, it was clear to everyone that had the event been scheduled a week later, it would have been canceled.
Then the COVID-19 dominoes really began to fall. Broadway shut down. Major League Baseball suspended spring training. Disney closed its parks and resorts worldwide. Whatever was happening was serious, and it was happening fast.
On April 3, tragedy struck close to home. Jim Indelicato, SCQ’s group publisher, died in his sleep of heart failure. His death was not COVID-19 related, but it nonetheless compounded the misery that we had come to know as 2020.
We had no choice but to forge ahead. Luckily, we had built a sound plan to maintain business continuity, and we worked that plan hard as we—among other things—helped CSCMP take their annual conference and exhibition virtual. In the end, we enter the new year in solid shape, if not a bit weary.
Admittedly, the events of 2020 did cause me to briefly reconsider my plans. In the end, though, watching Gary and the AGiLE team’s response to the crisis convinced me I could safely stick with my original script, right down to the closing line of this column, which was selected over 20 years ago: “The time is gone. The song is over. Thought I’d something more to say …”
Logistics service provider (LSP) DHL Supply Chain is continuing to extend its investments in global multi-shoring and in reverse logistics, marking efforts to help its clients adjust to the challenging business and economic conditions of 2025.
The company’s focus on improving e-commerce parcel flows comes as a time when retailers are facing an array of delivery challenges—both international and domestic—triggered by a cascade of swift changes in reciprocal tariffs, “de minimis” import fees, and other protectionist escalations of trade war conditions imposed by the newly seated Trump Administration. While business groups are largely opposed to those policies, they still need strategies to accommodate those rules of the road as long as the new rules remain in place.
Accordingly, DHL last week released a new study on the growing importance of multi-shoring strategies that go beyond the classic “China Plus 1” philosophy and focuses on diversifying production and supplier locations even further, to multiple countries. This expanded “China Plus X” strategy can help companies build resilient supply chains by choosing more diverse production locations in response to global trade disruptions. The study offers five criteria for sourcing goods from countries outside China such as India, Vietnam, Hungary, and Mexico, depending on the procurement needs of each particular industry.
As the Trump Administration threatens new steps in a growing trade war, U.S. manufacturers and retailers are calling for a ceasefire, saying the crossfire caused by the new tax hikes on American businesses will raise prices for consumers and possibly trigger rising inflation.
Tariffs are taxes charged by a country on its own businesses that import goods from other nations. Until they can invest in long-term alternatives like building new factories or finding new trading partners, companies must either take those additional tax duties out of their profit margins or pass them on to consumers as higher prices.
The Trump Administration on Thursday announced it may impose “reciprocal tariffs” on any country that currently holds tariffs on the import of U.S. goods. That step followed earlier threats to apply tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum beginning March 12, another plan to charge tariffs on the import of materials from Canada and Mexico—now postponed until early March—and new round of tariffs on imports from China including a 10% blanket increase and the elimination of the “de minimis” exception for individual items under a value of $800 each.
Various industry groups say that while the Administration may have legitimate goals in ramping up a trade war—such as lowering foreign tariff and non-tariff trade barriers—applying a strategy of hiking tariffs on imports coming into America would inflict economic harm on U.S. businesses and consumers.
“This tariff-heavy approach continues to gamble with our economic prosperity and is based on incomplete thinking about the vital role ethical and fairly traded imports play in the prosperity,” Steve Lamar, president and CEO of The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) said in a release. “Putting America first means ensuring predictability for American businesses that create U.S. jobs; affordable options for American consumers who power our economy; opportunities for farmers who feed our families; and support for tens of millions of U.S. workers whose trade dependent jobs make our factories, our stores, our warehouses, and our offices function. Sweeping new tariffs — a possible outcome of this exercise — instead puts America last, raising costs for American manufacturers for critical inputs and materials, closing key markets for American farmers, and raising prices for hardworking American families.”
A similar message came from the National Retail Federation (NRF), whose executive vice president of government relations, David French, said: “While we support the president’s efforts to reduce trade barriers and imbalances, this scale of undertaking is massive and will be extremely disruptive to our supply chains. It will likely result in higher prices for hardworking American families and will erode household spending power. We encourage the president to seek coordination and collaboration with our trading partners and bring stability to our supply chains and family budgets.”
The logistics tech firm Körber Supply Chain Software has a common position. "The imposition of new tariffs, or the suspension of tariffs, introduces substantial challenges for businesses dependent on international supply chains. Industries such as automotive and electronics, which rely heavily on cross-border trade with Mexico and Canada, are particularly vulnerable,” Steve Blough, Chief Strategist at Körber Supply Chain Software, said in an emailed statement. “Supply chains that are doing low-value ecommerce deliveries will have their business model thrown into complete disarray. The increased costs due to tariffs, or the increased costs in processing time due to suspensions, may lead to higher consumer prices and processing times.”
And further opposition to the strategy came from the California-based IT consulting firm Bristlecone. “Tariffs or the potential for tariffs increase uncertainty throughout the supply chain, potentially stalling deals, impacting the sourcing of raw materials, and prompting higher prices for consumers,” Jen Chew, Bristlecone’s VP of Solutions & Consulting, said in a statement. “Tariffs and other protectionist economic policies reflect an overarching trend away from global sourcing and toward local sourcing and production. However, despite the perceived benefits of local operations, some resources and capabilities may simply not be available locally, prompting manufacturers to continue operations overseas, even if it means paying steep tariffs.”
New Jersey is home to the most congested freight bottleneck in the country for the seventh straight year, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
ATRI’s annual list of the Top 100 Truck Bottlenecks aims to highlight the nation’s most congested highways and help local, state, and federal governments target funding to areas most in need of relief. The data show ways to reduce chokepoints, lower emissions, and drive economic growth, according to the researchers.
The 2025 Top Truck Bottleneck List measures the level of truck-involved congestion at more than 325 locations on the national highway system. The analysis is based on an extensive database of freight truck GPS data and uses several customized software applications and analysis methods, along with terabytes of data from trucking operations, to produce a congestion impact ranking for each location. The bottleneck locations detailed in the latest ATRI list represent the top 100 congested locations, although ATRI continuously monitors more than 325 freight-critical locations, the group said.
For the seventh straight year, the intersection of I-95 and State Route 4 near the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee, New Jersey, is the top freight bottleneck in the country. The remaining top 10 bottlenecks include: Chicago, I-294 at I-290/I-88; Houston, I-45 at I-69/US 59; Atlanta, I-285 at I-85 (North); Nashville: I-24/I-40 at I-440 (East); Atlanta: I-75 at I-285 (North); Los Angeles, SR 60 at SR 57; Cincinnati, I-71 at I-75; Houston, I-10 at I-45; and Atlanta, I-20 at I-285 (West).
ATRI’s analysis, which utilized data from 2024, found that traffic conditions continue to deteriorate from recent years, partly due to work zones resulting from increased infrastructure investment. Average rush hour truck speeds were 34.2 miles per hour (MPH), down 3% from the previous year. Among the top 10 locations, average rush hour truck speeds were 29.7 MPH.
In addition to squandering time and money, these delays also waste fuel—with trucks burning an estimated 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel and producing more than 65 million metric tons of additional carbon emissions while stuck in traffic jams, according to ATRI.
On a positive note, ATRI said its analysis helps quantify the value of infrastructure investment, pointing to improvements at Chicago’s Jane Byrne Interchange as an example. Once the number one truck bottleneck in the country for three years in a row, the recently constructed interchange saw rush hour truck speeds improve by nearly 25% after construction was completed, according to the report.
“Delays inflicted on truckers by congestion are the equivalent of 436,000 drivers sitting idle for an entire year,” ATRI President and COO Rebecca Brewster said in a statement announcing the findings. “These metrics are getting worse, but the good news is that states do not need to accept the status quo. Illinois was once home to the top bottleneck in the country, but following a sustained effort to expand capacity, the Jane Byrne Interchange in Chicago no longer ranks in the top 10. This data gives policymakers a road map to reduce chokepoints, lower emissions, and drive economic growth.”
It’s getting a little easier to find warehouse space in the U.S., as the frantic construction pace of recent years declined to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with rising vacancies, according to a report from real estate firm Colliers.
Those trends played out as the gap between new building supply and tenants’ demand narrowed during 2024, the firm said in its “U.S. Industrial Market Outlook Report / Q4 2024.” By the numbers, developers delivered 400 million square feet for the year, 34% below the record 607 million square feet completed in 2023. And net absorption, a key measure of demand, declined by 27%, to 168 million square feet.
Consequently, the U.S. industrial vacancy rate rose by 126 basis points, to 6.8%, as construction activity normalized at year-end to pre-pandemic levels of below 300 million square feet. With supply and demand nearing equilibrium in 2025, the vacancy rate is expected to peak at around 7% before starting to fall again.
Thanks to those market conditions, renters of warehouse space should begin to see some relief from the steep rent hikes they’re seen in recent years. According to Colliers, rent growth decelerated in 2024 after nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year increases surpassing 10%. Average warehouse and distribution rents rose by 5% to $10.12/SF triple net, and rents in some markets actually declined following a period of unprecedented growth when increases often exceeded 25% year-over-year. As the market adjusts, rents are projected to stabilize in 2025, rising between 2% and 5%, in line with historical averages.
In 2024, there were 125 new occupancies of 500,000 square feet or more, led by third-party logistics (3PL) providers, followed by manufacturing companies. Demand peaked in the fourth quarter at 53 million square feet, while the first quarter had the lowest activity at 28 million square feet — the lowest quarterly tally since 2012.
In its economic outlook for the future, Colliers said the U.S. economy remains strong by most measures; with low unemployment, consumer spending surpassing expectations, positive GDP growth, and signs of improvement in manufacturing. However businesses still face challenges including persistent inflation, the lowest hiring rate since 2010, and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, migration, and policies introduced by the new Trump Administration.
As U.S. businesses count down the days until the expiration of the Trump Administration’s monthlong pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a report from Uber Freight says the tariffs will likely be avoided through an extended agreement, since the potential for damaging consequences would be so severe for all parties.
If the tariffs occurred, they could push U.S. inflation higher, adding $1,000 to $1,200 to the average person's cost of living. And relief from interest rates would likely not come to the rescue, since inflation is already above the Fed's target, delaying further rate cuts.
A potential impact of the tariffs in the long run might be to boost domestic freight by giving local manufacturers an edge. However, the magnitude and sudden implementation of these tariffs means we likely won't see such benefits for a while, and the immediate damage will be more significant in the meantime, Uber Freight said in its “2025 Q1 Market update & outlook.”
That market volatility comes even as tough times continue in the freight market. In the U.S. full truckload sector, the cost per loaded mile currently exceeds spot rates significantly, which will likely push rate increases.
However, in the first quarter of 2025, spot rates are now falling, as they usually do in February following the winter peak. According to Uber Freight, this situation arose after truck operating costs rose 2 cents/mile in 2023 despite a 9-cent diesel price decline, thanks to increases in insurance (+13%), truck and trailer costs (+9%), and driver wages (+8%). Costs then fell 2 cents/mile in 2024, resulting in stable costs over the past two years.
Fortunately, Uber Freight predicts that the freight cycle could soon begin to turn, as signs of a recovery are emerging despite weak current demand. A measure of manufacturing growth called the ISM PMI edged up to 50.9 in December, surpassing the expansion threshold for the first time in 26 months.
Accordingly, new orders and production increased while employment stabilized. That means the U.S. manufacturing economy appears to be expanding after a prolonged period of contraction, signaling a positive outlook for freight demand, Uber Freight said.