From bean to cup: How Starbucks transformed its supply chain
With operational costs rising and sales declining, the global coffee purveyor implemented a three-step plan to improve supply chain performance, cut costs, and prepare for the future.
It takes a well-run supply chain to ensure that a barista pours a good cup of Starbucks coffee. That's because the journey from bean to cup is a complicated one. Coffee and other merchandise must be sourced from around the globe and then successfully delivered to the Starbucks Corporation's 16,700 retail stores, which serve some 50 million customers in 51 countries each week.
But in 2008, Starbucks wasn't sure that its supply chain was meeting that goal. One clue that things were not quite right: the company's operational costs were rising even though sales were cooling. Between October 2007 and October 2008, for example, supply chain expenses in the United States rose from US $750 million to more than US $825 million, yet sales for U.S. stores that had been open for at least one year dropped by 10 percent during that same period.
In part, Starbucks was a victim of its own success. Because the company was opening stores around the world at a rapid pace, the supply chain organization had to focus on keeping up with that expansion. "We had been growing so fast that we had not done a good enough job of getting the [supply chain] fundamentals in place," says Peter D. Gibbons, executive vice president of global supply chain operations. As a result, he says, "the costs of running the supply chain—the operating expenses—were rising very steeply."
To hold those expenses in check and achieve a balance between cost and performance, Starbucks would have to make significant changes to its operations. Here is a look at the steps Gibbons and his colleagues took and the results they achieved.
A plan for reorganization
Starbucks' supply chain transformation had support from the very top. In 2008, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer Howard Schultz tapped Gibbons, who was then senior vice president of global manufacturing operations, to run the company's supply chain. This was a familiar role for Gibbons; prior to joining Starbucks in 2007, he had been executive vice president of supply chain for The Glidden Co., a subsidiary of ICI Americas Inc.
The first two things Gibbons did in his new position were assess how well the supply chain was serving stores, and find out where costs were coming from. He soon learned that less than half of store deliveries were arriving on time. "My quick diagnosis was ... that we were not spending enough attention on how good we were at delivering service to stores," he recalls. Following that assessment, Gibbons began visiting Starbucks' retail stores to see the situation for himself and get input from employees. "The visits were made to confirm that our supply chain could improve significantly," he explains. "The best people to judge the need for change were those at the customer-facing part of our business."
A cost analysis revealed excessive outlays for outsourcing; 65 to 70 percent of Starbucks' supply chain operating expenses were tied to outsourcing agreements for transportation, third-party logistics, and contract manufacturing. "Outsourcing had been used to allow the supply chain to expand rapidly to keep up with store openings, but outsourcing had also led to significant cost inflation," Gibbons observes.
In response to those findings, Gibbons and his leadership team devised a three-step supply chain transformation plan and presented it to Starbucks' board of directors. Under that plan, the company would first reorganize its supply chain organization, simplifying its structure and more clearly defining functional roles. Next, Starbucks would focus on reducing the cost to serve its stores while improving its day-to-day supply chain execution. Once these supply chain fundamentals were firmly under control, the company could then lay the foundation for improved supply chain capability for the future.
Simplifying the complex
The first step of the transformation plan, reorganizing Starbucks' supply chain organization, got under way in late 2008. According to Gibbons, that involved taking a complex structure and simplifying it so that every job fell into one of the four basic supply chain functions: plan, source, make, and deliver. For instance, anybody involved in planning—be it production planning, replenishment, or new product launches—was placed in the planning group. Sourcing activities were grouped into two areas: coffee and "non-coffee" procurement. (Starbucks spends US $600 million on coffee each year. Purchases of other items, such as dairy products, baked goods, store furniture, and paper goods, total US $2.5 billion annually.) All manufacturing, whether done in-house or by contract manufacturers, was assigned to the "make" functional unit. And finally, all personnel working in transportation, distribution, and customer service were assigned to the "deliver" group.
After the supply chain functions were reorganized, the various departments turned their attention to the second objective of the supply chain transformation: reducing costs and improving efficiencies. As part of that effort, the sourcing group worked on identifying the cost drivers that were pushing up prices. "We went out to understand the contracts we had, the prices we were paying, and the shipping costs, and we began breaking items down by ingredient rather than just purchase price," Gibbons says. "We built more effective 'should cost' models, including benchmarking ingredients and processes, which showed that we could negotiate better prices."
Meanwhile, the manufacturing group developed a more efficient model for delivering coffee beans to its processing plants, with the goal of manufacturing in the region where the product is sold. Starbucks already owned three coffee plants in the United States, in Kent, Washington; Minden, Nevada; and York, Pennsylvania. In 2009, the company added a fourth U.S. plant, in Columbia, South Carolina. The benefits of that approach were quickly apparent; regionalizing its coffee production allowed Starbucks to reduce its transportation costs and lead times, says Gibbons. Moreover, once the new facility was up and running, all of the U.S. coffee plants were able to switch from seven-day operations to five days.
In addition to the four coffee facilities it owns in the United States, Starbucks also operates a coffee plant in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and a processing plant for its Tazo Tea subsidiary in Portland, Oregon. The company also relies on 24 co-manufacturers, most of them in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Canada.
Even though it spread production across a wide territory, transportation, distribution, and logistics made up the bulk of Starbucks' operating expenses because the company ships so many different products around the world. Getting that under control presented a daunting challenge for the supply chain group. "Whether coffee from Africa or merchandise from China, [our task was to integrate] that together into one global logistics system, the combined physical movement of all incoming and outgoing goods," says Gibbons. "It's a big deal because there's so much spend there, and so much of our service depends on that. ... With 70,000 to 80,000 deliveries per week plus all the inbound shipments from around the world, we want to manage these logistics in one system."
One world, one logistics system
The creation of a single, global logistics system was important for Starbucks because of its far-flung supply chain. The company generally brings coffee beans from Latin America, Africa, and Asia to the United States and Europe in ocean containers. From the port of entry, the "green" (unroasted) beans are trucked to six storage sites, either at a roasting plant or nearby. After the beans are roasted and packaged, the finished product is trucked to regional distribution centers, which range from 200,000 to 300,000 square feet in size. Starbucks runs five regional distribution centers (DCs) in the United States; two are company-owned and the other three are operated by third-party logistics companies (3PLs). It also has two distribution centers in Europe and two in Asia, all of which are managed by 3PLs. Coffee, however, is only one of many products held at these warehouses. They also handle other items required by Starbucks' retail outlets—everything from furniture to cappuccino mix.
Depending on their location, the stores are supplied by either the large, regional DCs or by smaller warehouses called central distribution centers (CDCs). Starbucks uses 33 such CDCs in the United States, seven in the Asia/Pacific region, five in Canada, and three in Europe; currently, all but one are operated by third-party logistics companies. The CDCs carry dairy products, baked goods, and paper items like cups and napkins. They combine the coffee with these other items to make frequent deliveries via dedicated truck fleets to Starbucks' own retail stores and to retail outlets that sell Starbucks-branded products.
Because delivery costs and execution are intertwined, Gibbons and his team set about improving both. One of their first steps was to build a global map of Starbucks' transportation expenditures—no easy task, because it involved gathering all supply chain costs by region and by customer, Gibbons says. An analysis of those expenditures allowed Starbucks to winnow its transportation carriers, retaining only those that provided the best service.
The logistics team also met with its 3PLs and reviewed productivity and contract rates. To aid the review process, the team created weekly scorecards for measuring those vendors. "There are very clear service metrics, clear cost metrics, and clear productivity metrics, and those were agreed with our partners," Gibbons notes.
The scorecard assessments of a 3PL's performance were based on a very simple system, using only two numbers: 0 and 1. For example, if a vendor operating a warehouse or DC picked a product accurately, it earned a "1" for that activity. If a shipment was missing even one pallet, the 3PL received a score of "0." As part of the scorecard initiative, Starbucks also began making service data by store, delivery lane, and stock-keeping unit (SKU) available to its supply chain partners. "The scorecard and the weekly rhythm (for review of the scorecard) ensured transparency in how we were improving the cost base while maintaining a focus on looking after our people and servicing our customers," Gibbons says.
Although Starbucks has a raft of metrics for evaluating supply chain performance, it focuses on four high-level categories to create consistency and balance across the global supply chain team: safety in operations, service measured by on-time delivery and order fill rates, total end-to-end supply chain costs, and enterprise savings. This last refers to cost savings that come from areas outside logistics, such as procurement, marketing, or research and development.
In undertaking all of those steps to reduce operating costs and improve execution, Gibbons says, Starbucks was laying the foundation for future supply chain capabilities. "We tell the stores that we have got to get the fundamentals right—the things that give people confidence. ... We don't ship things that aren't right," he explains.
Earning the company's confidence
Since Starbucks began its supply chain transformation effort, it has curtailed costs worldwide without compromising service delivery. "As a company," Gibbons says, "we have talked publicly of over $500 million of savings in the last two years, and the supply chain has been a major contributor to that."
In Gibbons' eyes, the transformation effort has been a success. "Today there's a lot of confidence in our supply chain to execute every day, to make 70,000 deliveries a week, to get new products to market, and to manage product transitions, new product introductions, and promotions," he says. "There's a lot of confidence that we now are focused on service and quality to provide what our stores need and what our other business customers need."
To sustain that momentum for improvement and to ensure a future flow of talent into the organization, Starbucks recently began an initiative to recruit top graduates of supply chain education programs. (For more on this initiative, see the sidebar "Starbucks: The next generation.") Along with its recruiting program, the company plans to provide ongoing training for its existing employees to help them further develop their supply chain knowledge and skills. "We want to make sure we have thought leaders [in our supply chain organization]," Gibbons says. Starbucks considers this initiative to be so important, in fact, that Gibbons now spends 40 to 50 percent of his time on developing, hiring, and retaining supply chain talent.
The infusion of new recruits will allow Starbucks to stay focused on its supply chain mission of delivering products with a high level of service at the lowest possible cost to its stores in the United States and around the globe. As Gibbons observes, "No one is going to listen to us talking about supply chain strategy if we can't deliver service, quality, and cost on a daily basis."
Starbucks' Supply Chain Objectives
To transform its supply chain, the coffee retailer established three key objectives:
Reorganize its supply chain organization
Reduce its cost to serve stores and improve execution
Lay the foundation for future supply chain capability
Starbucks by the numbers
Headquarters: Seattle, Washington, USA Total net revenues in fiscal 2009: US $9.7 billion
Employees: 142,000 worldwide (as of September 2009)
Manufacturing:
5 company-owned coffee roasting plants (Nevada, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Washington, USA, and the Netherlands)
24 co-manufacturers (in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and Latin America)
1 tea processing plant (Portland, Oregon, USA)
Distribution:
9 regional distribution centers
48 central distribution centers
6 "green coffee" warehouses
Deliveries: 2.7 million per year
Starbucks: The next generation
When Starbucks' supply chain transformation was first getting under way in 2008, the company brought in professionals from the outside to support its re-engineering program. But the coffee retailer is taking a different approach to recruitment these days. "Now, we want to grow our own talent to support the growth of our business, in North America and globally, and to support normal staff turnover," says Peter D. Gibbons, executive vice president of global supply chain operations. "Creating a strong pipeline at all levels is part of our core mission to improve service, lower cost, and develop talent."
The initial phase of the recruitment program will be aimed at building out the U.S. organization, followed by a similar staffing process for the company's international operations. After that, Starbucks will focus on creating an internship program with an eye toward recruiting underclassmen interested in a supply chain career with the company.
Throughout the fall of 2010, executives at Starbucks visited six universities to interview undergraduates and graduate students with backgrounds in logistics, engineering, and operations research. From this process will come a select group of young talent who, starting in July 2011 and continuing for an undetermined number of years, will be hired and groomed to head Starbucks' supply chain for perhaps as long as the next two decades.
The company will only consider the top 10 percent of the graduating class of the schools it partners with. The ideal candidates will have exposure to
Fortune 500 organizations either through prior work experience or through internships. In addition, they must demonstrate prior leadership experience and be willing to rotate between domestic and international positions.
To help improve employees' skills and knowledge, the company has developed programs covering 30 supply chain capabilities, as well as training manuals for new hires, Gibbons says. "The point is to ensure that development plans cover skill-building and development for each individual," he explains. The company also is testing a supply chain training system that will "provide the bulk of our technical training and will add formal coaching and mentoring to round the process out," he adds.
If successful, the strategy will yield multiple benefits, according to Gibbons and his team. It will brand Starbucks as a bona fide supply chain organization within both academia and industry. It will ensure a seamless human resources transition over time as Gibbons and his team near retirement. And the company will reap the intellectual windfall of advanced concepts that graduates take out of school and into the workplace. Gibbons says Starbucks expects to learn as much from its new hires as they will learn from the company.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Even as the e-commerce sector overall continues expanding toward a forecasted 41% of all retail sales by 2027, many small to medium e-commerce companies are struggling to find the investment funding they need to increase sales, according to a sector survey from online capital platform Stenn.
Global geopolitical instability and increasing inflation are causing e-commerce firms to face a liquidity crisis, which means companies may not be able to access the funds they need to grow, Stenn’s survey of 500 senior e-commerce leaders found. The research was conducted by Opinion Matters between August 29 and September 5.
Survey findings include:
61.8% of leaders who sought growth capital did so to invest in advanced technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to improve their businesses.
When asked which resources they wished they had more access to, 63.8% of respondents pointed to growth capital.
Women indicated a stronger need for business operations training (51.2%) and financial planning resources (48.8%) compared to men (30.8% and 15.4%).
40% of business owners are seeking external financial advice and mentorship at least once a week to help with business decisions.
Almost half (49.6%) of respondents are proactively forecasting their business activity 6-18 months ahead.
“As e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, driven by increasing online consumer demand and technological innovation, it’s important to remember that capital constraints and access to growth financing remain persistent hurdles for many e-commerce business leaders especially at small and medium-sized businesses,” Noel Hillman, Chief Commercial Officer at Stenn, said in a release. “In this competitive landscape, ensuring liquidity and optimizing supply chain processes are critical to sustaining growth and scaling operations.”
With six keynote and more than 100 educational sessions, CSCMP EDGE 2024 offered a wealth of content. Here are highlights from just some of the presentations.
A great American story
Author and entrepreneur Fawn Weaver closed out the first day of the conference by telling the little-known story of Nathan “Nearest” Green, who was born into slavery, freed after the Civil War, and went on to become the first master distiller for the Jack Daniel’s Whiskey brand. Through extensive research and interviews with descendants of the Daniel and Green families, Weaver discovered what she describes as a positive American story.
She told the story in her best-selling book, Love & Whiskey: The Remarkable True Story of Jack Daniel, His Master Distiller Nearest Green, and the Improbable Rise of Uncle Nearest. That story also inspired her to create Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey.
Weaver discussed the barriers she encountered in bringing the brand to life, her vision for where it’s headed, and her take on the supply chain—which she views as both a necessary cost of doing business and an opportunity.
“[It’s] an opportunity if you can move quickly,” she said, pointing to a recent project in which the company was able to fast-track a new Uncle Nearest product thanks to close collaboration with its supply chain partners.
A two-pronged business transformation
We may be living in a world full of technology, but strategy and focus remain the top priorities when it comes to managing a business and its supply chains. So says Roberto Isaias, executive vice president and chief supply chain officer for toy manufacturing and entertainment company Mattel.
Isaias emphasized the point during his keynote on day two of EDGE 2024. He described how Mattel transformed itself amid surging demand for Barbie-branded items following the success of the Barbie movie.
That transformation, according to Isaias, came on two fronts: commercially and logistically. Today, Mattel is steadily moving beyond the toy aisle with two films and 13 TV series in production as well as 14 films and 35 shows in development. And as for those supply chain gains? The company has saved millions, increased productivity, and improved profit margins—even amid cost increases and inflation.
A framework for chasing excellence
Most of the time when CEOs present at an industry conference, they like to talk about their companies’ success stories. Not J.B. Hunt’s Shelley Simpson. Speaking at EDGE, the trucking company’s president and CEO led with a story about a time that the company lost a major customer.
According to Simpson, the company had a customer of their dedicated contract business in 2001 that was consistently making late shipments with no lead time. “We were working like crazy to try to satisfy them, and lost their business,” Simpson said.
When the team at J.B. Hunt later met with the customer’s chief supply chain officer and related all they had been doing, the customer responded, “You never shared everything you were doing for us.”
Out of that experience, came J.B. Hunt’s Customer Value Delivery framework. The framework consists of five steps: 1) understand customer needs, 2) deliver expectations, 3) measure results, 4) communicate performance, and 5) anticipate new value.
Next year’s CSCMP EDGE conference on October 5–8 in National Harbor, Md., promises to have a similarly deep lineup of keynote presentations. Register early at www.cscmpedge.org.
2024 was expected to be a bounce-back year for the logistics industry. We had the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and the economy was proving to be more resilient than expected, defying those prognosticators who believed a recession was imminent.
While most of the economy managed to stabilize in 2024, the logistics industry continued to see disruption and changes in international trade. World events conspired to drive much of the narrative surrounding the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, a diminished reliance on China as a source for goods reduced some of the international trade flow from that manufacturing hub. Some of this trade diverted to other Asian nations, while nearshoring efforts brought some production back to North America, particularly Mexico.
Meanwhile trucking in the United States continued its 2-year recession, highlighted by weaker demand and excess capacity. Both contributed to a slow year, especially for truckload carriers that comprise about 90% of over-the-road shipments.
Labor issues were also front and center in 2024, as ports and rail companies dealt with threats of strikes, which resulted in new contracts and increased costs. Labor—and often a lack of it—continues to be an ongoing concern in the logistics industry.
In this annual issue, we bring a year-end perspective to these topics and more. Our issue is designed to complement CSCMP’s 35th Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released in June, and includes updates that were presented at the CSCMP EDGE conference held in October. In addition to this overview of the market, we have engaged top industry experts to dig into the status of key logistics sectors.
Hopefully as we move into 2025, logistics markets will build on an improving economy and strong consumer demand, while stabilizing those parts of the industry that could use some adrenaline, such as trucking. By this time next year, we hope to see a full recovery as the market fulfills its promise to deliver the needs of our very connected world.
If you feel like your supply chain has been continuously buffeted by external forces over the last few years and that you are constantly having to adjust your operations to tact through the winds of change, you are not alone.
The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ (CSCMP’s) “35th Annual State of Logistics Report” and the subsequent follow-up presentation at the CSCMP EDGE Annual Conference depict a logistics industry facing intense external stresses, such as geopolitical conflict, severe weather events and climate change, labor action, and inflation. The past 18 months have seen all these factors have an impact on demand for transportation and logistics services as well as capacity, freight rates, and overall costs.
The “State of Logistics Report” is an annual study compiled and authored by a team of analysts from Kearney for CSCMP and supported and sponsored by logistics service provider Penske Logistics. The purpose of the report is to provide a snapshot of the logistics industry by assessing macroeconomic conditions and providing a detailed look at its major subsectors.
One of the key metrics the report has tracked every year since its inception in 1988 is U.S. business logistics costs (USBLC). This year’s report found that U.S. business logistics costs went down in 2023 for the first time since the start of the pandemic. As Figure 1 shows, U.S. business logistics costs for 2023 dropped 11.2% year-over-year to $2.4 trillion, or 8.7% of last year’s $27.4 trillion gross domestic product (GDP).
“This was not unexpected,” said Josh Brogan, Kearney partner and lead author of the report, during a press conference in June announcing the results. “After the initial impacts of COVID were felt in 2020, we saw a steady rise of logistics costs, even in terms of total GDP. What we are seeing now is a reversion more toward the mean.”
This breakdown of U.S. Business Logistics Costs for 2023 shows an across-the-board decline in all transportation costs.
CSCMP's 35th Annual "State of Logistics Report"
As a result, Figure 1 shows an across-the-board decline in transportation costs (except for some administrative costs) for the 2023 calendar year. “What such a chart cannot fully capture about this period is the intensification of certain external stressors on the global economy and its logistical networks,” says the report. “These include a growing geopolitical instability that further complicates investment and policy decisions for business leaders and government officials.”Both the report and the follow-up session at the CSCMP EDGE Conference in October provided a vivid picture of the global instability that logistics providers and shippers are facing. These conditions include (but are not limited to):
An intensification of military conflict, with the Red Sea Crisis being particularly top of mind for companies shipping from Asia to Europe or to the eastern part of North America;
Continued fragmentation of global trade, as evidenced by the deepening rift between China and the United States;
Climate change and severe weather events, such as the drought in Panama, which lowered water levels in the Panama Canal, and the two massive hurricanes that ripped through the Southeastern United States;
Labor disputes, such as the three-day port strike which stopped operations at ports along the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States in October; and
Persistent inflation (despite some recent improvement in the United States) and muted global economic growth.
At the same time that the logistics market was dealing with these external factors, it was also facing sluggish freight demand and an ongoing excess of capacity. These twin dynamics have contributed to continued low cargo rates through 2024.
“For 2024, I foresee a generally flat USBLC as a percentage of GDP,” says Brogan. “We did see increases in air and ocean costs in preparation for the East Coast port strike but overall, road freight is down. I think this will balance out with the relatively low level of inflation seen in the general economy.”
Breakdown by mode
The following is a quick review of how the forces outlined above are affecting the primary logistics sectors, as described by the “State of Logistics Report” and the updated presentation given at the CSCMP EDGE Conference in early October.
Trucking: A downturn in consumer demand plus a lingering surplus in capacity led to a plunge in rates in 2023 compared to 2022. Throughout 2024, however, rates have remained relatively stable. Speaking in October, report author Brogan said he expects that trend to continue for the near future. On the capacity side, despite thousands of companies having departed the market since 2022, the number of departures has not been as high as would normally be expected during a down market. Brogan accounts this to investors expecting to see some turbulence in the marketplace and being willing to stick around longer than has traditionally been the case.
Parcel and last mile: Parcel volumes in 2023 were down by 0.5% compared to 2022. Simultaneously, there has been a move away from UPS and FedEx, both of which saw their year-over-year parcel volumes decline in 2023. Nontraditional competitors have taken larger portions of the parcel volume, including Amazon, which passed UPS for the largest parcel carrier in the U.S. in 2023. Additionally, there has been an increasing use of regional providers, as large shippers continue to shift away from “single sourcing” their carrier base. Parcel volumes have increased in 2024, mostly driven by e-commerce. Brogan expects regional providers to claim “the lion’s share” of this volume.
Rail: In 2023, Class I railroads experienced a challenging financial environment, characterized by a 4% increase in operating ratios, a 2% decline in revenue, and an 11% decrease in operating income compared to 2022. These financial troubles were primarily driven by intermodal volume decreases, service challenges, inflationary pressures, escalated fuel and labor expenses, and a surge in employee headcount. The outlook for 2024 is slightly more promising, according to Kearney. Intermodal, often regarded a primary growth driver, has seen increased volumes and market share. Class I railroads are also seeing some positive operational developments with train speeds increasing by 2.3% and terminal dwell times decreasing by 1.8%. Finally, opportunities are opening up for an expansion in cross-border rail traffic within North America.
Air: The air freight market saw a steep decline in costs year over year from 2022 to 2023. Rates in 2024 began flat before starting to pick up in the summer, and report authors expect to see demand increase by 4.5%. Part of the demand pickup is due to disruptions in key sea lanes, such as the Suez Canal, causing shippers to convert from ocean to air. Meanwhile, the capacity picture has been mixed with some lanes having a lot of capacity while others have none. Much of this dynamic is due to Chinese e-commerce retailers Temu and Shein, which depend heavily on airfreight to execute their business models. In order to serve this booming business, some airfreight providers have pulled capacity out of more niche markets, such as flights into Latin America or Africa, and are now using those planes to serve the Asia-to-U.S. or Asia-to-Europe lanes.
Water/ports: The recent “State of Logistics Report” indicated that waterborne freight experienced a very steep decline of 64.2% in expenditures in 2023 relative to 2022. This was mostly due to muted demand, overcapacity, and a normalization from the inflated ocean rates seen during the pandemic years. After the trough of 2023, the market has been seeing significant “micro-spikes” in rates on some lanes due to constraints caused by geopolitical issues, such as the Red Sea conflict and the U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports strike. Kearney foresees a continuation of these rate hikes for the next few months. However, over the long term, the market will have to deal with the overcapacity that was built up during the height of the pandemic, which will cause rates to soften. Ultimately, however, Brogan said he did not expect to see a return to 2023 rate levels.
Third-party logistics (3PLs): The third-party logistics (3PL) sector is facing some significant challenges in 2024. Low freight rates and excess capacity could force some 3PLs to consolidate, especially if they are smaller players and rely on venture capital funding. Meanwhile, Kearney reports that there is some redefining of traditional roles going on within the 3PL-shipper ecosystem. For example, some historically asset-light 3PLs are expanding into asset-heavy services, and some shippers are trying to monetize their own logistics capabilities by marketing them externally.
Freight forwarding: Major forwarders had a shaky final quarter of 2023, seeing a decline in financial performance. To regain form, Kearney asserts that forwarders will need to increase their focus on technology, value-added services, and tiered servicing. Overall, the forwarding sector is expected to grow at slow rate in coming years, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.5% for the period of 2023–2032.
Warehousing: According to Brogan an interesting phenomenon is occurring in the warehousing market with the average asking rents continuing to rise even though vacancy rates have also increased. There are several reasons for this mixed message, according to the “State of Logistics” report, including: longer contract durations, enhanced facility features, and steady demand growth. A record-breaking level of new construction and new facilities, however, have helped to stabilize rent prices and increase vacancy rates, according to the report authors.
Path forward
What is the way forward given these uncertain times? For many shippers and carriers, a fresh look at their networks and overall supply chains may be in order. Many companies are currently reassessing their distribution networks and operations to make sure that they are optimized. In these cost-sensitive times, that may involve consolidating facilities, eliminating redundant capacity, or rebalancing inventory.
It’s important to realize, however, that network optimization should not just focus on eliminating unnecessary costs. It should also ensure that the network has the right amount of capacity to response with agility and flexibility to any future disruptions. Companies must look at their supply chain networks as a whole and think about how they can be utilized to unlock strategic advantage.