Sustainability is impacting the way companies operate in every industry across the globe. Yet our understanding of supply chain sustainability and its impact on enterprises is limited. The “State of Supply Chain Sustainability 2020” Report aims to fill this information gap and to help inform what the future of supply chain sustainability might look like.
Alexis Bateman is the director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sustainable Supply Chains Lab. Her work focuses on supply chain sustainability across issues of social and environmental impact through research, education, and outreach.
Donna Palumbo-Miele is the current board chair of CSCMP. She is executive director of Penn State’s Center for Supply Chain Research and founder of Concordia Supply Chain Group LLC.
This first annual edition of the State of Supply Chain Sustainability 2020 Report addresses numerous dimensions of supply chain sustainability and provides a snapshot to inform both supply chain professionals and future business strategy.
This year’s study tackles the pressure to act, how goals and investments are aligned (or not), corporate preferences for reporting mechanisms, as well as the role of the supply chain professional in sustainability. This specific excerpt addresses the findings on the pressure to act and the role of the supply chain professional.
To gain a broad outlook on supply chain sustainability in 2019, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center for Transportation & Logistics (CTL) and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) took a three-tiered approach. First, we conducted a large-scale survey of 1,128 supply chain professionals from a variety of industries that included manufacturing, logistics, retail, health care, and wholesale, among others. Next, we interviewed experienced sustainability and supply chain executives. Finally, we analyzed information from news, social media, and reports.
To purchase or download (free to CSCMP members) a copy of the report, visit education.cscmp.org.
The pressure to act
We identified several key themes regarding how companies set supply chain sustainability goals and subsequently invest in implementing them. The first theme was the pressure to act. For those that feel pressure to increase supply chain sustainability, the pressure is not limited to one source—survey results illustrated that it is diffuse across many sources.
A little under half of survey respondents mentioned receiving pressure to improve their firms’ supply chain sustainability adoption. For those feeling pressure, on average, respondents identified feeling some to moderate levels of pressure from different sources including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), media, investors, industry associations, governments, end consumers, corporate buyers, local communities, and company executives (see Figure 1). The most intense pressure was reported as coming from government, mass media, and executives. But what can be seen most clearly is that, for those feeling pressure, it is diffuse and is not exclusive to a single source. This is contrary to accepted wisdom that NGOs and consumers are primary pressure sources.
While supply chain professionals who responded to the survey indicated that they felt some to moderate levels of pressure across different sources, the majority of the interviewed executives reported feeling high levels of pressure from those same sources, and that pressure has intensified in the last two to five years.
This difference in perception may be a result of a difference in how professionals and executives interact with different stakeholders, which may affect their subsequent awareness of growing sources of pressure. This might suggest that in coming years, supply chain professionals may see more pressure to act as pressure trickles down from executives in the form of responsibilities and key performance indicators (KPIs).1
While historical perceptions of the pressure to address environmental and social concerns have often been tied to NGOs, like Greenpeace, or conscientious consumer segments, executives highlighted the changing nature of these forces.2
In addition to external pressures to act, the survey results showed that current and prospective employees are exerting some pressure, and their voiced desire to work for a more responsible workplace is being heard clearly by many executives.
Although pressure was present in all industries in the survey, some are more heavily impacted than others. Survey results showed that extractive industries received the most pressure to bolster supply chain sustainability, followed by agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, and construction (see Figure 2). The industries that received the least amount of pressure were health care and services and wholesale, with more than half of the respondents in those industries responding that they felt no pressure at all.
This finding aligns with our analysis of media content, which shows that there was extensive coverage of the environmental and social impact of extractive industries. Mining in particular has come under increased scrutiny, given its pivotal role in energy and construction as well as in several high-profile environmental disasters.3,4,5
Similarly, food sectors, such as agriculture and fishing, have found themselves at the center of controversies around environmental impacts like clear-cutting of rainforests and wide-ranging labor issues such as slave and child labor.6
Executive interviews highlighted how companies were being urged to improve their supply chain sustainability performance and what that means for players across the supply chain.
One executive described this pressure as “a waterfall effect” in that consumer-facing brands are feeling the heat on all fronts, but the pressure to act was passed on from the brands to their suppliers. Brands conveyed these pressures to suppliers in the form of required compliance with supplier codes of conduct as well as the tracking and reporting of sustainability-related impacts.
While regulatory pressure was not an overwhelming factor in the survey responses, it was a reoccurring theme in the interviews and content analysis, both in terms of existing regulation and the “threat” of new regulations.7
Policies such as the U.K.’s Modern Slavery Act, the California Supply Chain Transparency Act, and the U.S.’s Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act were all referred to as key regulatory frameworks that push for greater due diligence in the supply chain.
These pieces of legislation have rules in place to ensure no forced, slave, or human-trafficked labor in supply chains, in some cases all the way back to raw material. For example, the Dodd-Frank Act requires that companies apply due diligence to ensure that they are not sourcing from conflict zones like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
According to multiple executives, the effort to comply with legislation is no small task and has prompted companies to not only be aware of practices among their direct suppliers but also to know what is going on in deep-tier suppliers with whom they typically do not interact.8
Does pressure drive corporate commitment?
The short answer is yes. Companies where respondents felt any level of pressure were far more likely to have publicly stated goals than those where respondents did not. Of the respondents who felt pressure, over two-thirds indicated that their company both receives pressure and has goals.
Conversely, of those who did not feel pressure, a similar proportion indicated their company does not have publicly stated goals. While this does not indicate direct causation, it can be deduced from these findings that pressure drives action, especially in the form of goal setting. For those looking to drive more corporate commitment to supply sustainability, pressure is the key.
Supply chain professionals are engaged
Another novel finding from the research is that sustainability, in many cases, is now part of supply chain professionals’ responsibilities. Our research on supply chain roles ranging from junior- and manager-level professionals all the way up to executives indicates that adoption of sustainability is impacting the profession.
As businesses have come under pressure to tackle social and environmental issues, they have created sustainability teams or departments to carry out this work. Initially, these departments were often “bolt-on” units with limited funding or power to drive change. As some companies have come to recognize that the supply chain function is central to sustainability, the discipline has shouldered more responsibility for related projects. Many of the bolt-on units created to take charge of these projects have been incorporated into supply chain groups.
This phenomenon was clearly represented in the research. Nearly half of survey respondents were either a primary decision maker or directly involved with sustainability. While the nature of the survey could be biased toward professionals who are already involved with sustainability, there is evidence that supply chain’s involvement in sustainability efforts is part of an industry trend. The executives interviewed identified the impact of this trend in most professional supply chain roles.
Companies have adopted a variety of approaches to the assignment responsibility for sustainability. For example, some companies allocate supply chain practitioners to cross-functional departments or give practitioners in related functions such as procurement and logistics more responsibility for sustainability. In light of this trend, it appears that the days of a separate sustainability department with a limited role are fading.
One executive likened this change to the evolution of the role of “chief quality officer” and other quality-control functions that gained prominence in the 1980s and ’90s. These responsibilities have slowly been absorbed into all departments and functions. Sustainability may be taking the same path—and integration across all business functions is a key feature of this changing landscape.
Many executives maintained that placing responsibility for sustainability in supply chain roles yields practical and strategic benefits. This approach to sustainability is reshaping the upper echelons of supply chain management. A portion of the executives interviewed are responsible for expanding sustainability in their company and supply chains. This is echoed by experts tracking the industry, such as Michelle Meyer, client executive for Gartner and past board chair for CSCMP. She noted that she has seen “more supply chain executives ‘own’ sustainability than ever before.”
This phenomenon is not confined to veteran supply chain professionals. More than 20% of applicants to the MIT Supply Chain Management master’s program cited sustainability as one of their key interests influencing their decision to pursue a career in supply chain. This attitude is further evidenced in recruitment efforts.
However, the level of engagement with sustainability is not standard across industries (see Figure 3). Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting had the most respondents who were primary decision makers or directly involved, and therefore had the highest level of engagement, followed by accommodation and food service, construction, and utilities. Retail and health care and services had the most respondents who were not at all engaged.
The supply chain sustainability picture within the profession is not all positive. Some survey respondents said they lacked responsibility for sustainability or were unaware of their company’s activities in this area. One respondent said, “This survey made me aware of how much I do not know about our supply chain sustainability strategy.” Others identified an acute lack of opportunity for engagement and/or limited training to get up to speed on supply chain sustainability. Four executives reinforced this point, indicating that a lack of training can be a significant barrier to engagement in sustainability. These findings suggest a dearth of educational opportunities for professionals seeking to find an entry point into supply chain sustainability and to scale up their knowledge quickly and comprehensively.
An additional finding is one that has important implications for decision makers in supply chain sustainability: While being sustainable is commonly touted as the right thing to do, the right decisions on how and when to act are not always clear.
Executive input showed that while there is momentum to pursue supply chain sustainability, the journey is impeded by financial, physical, and technological barriers. For instance, in industries with low profit margins, such as apparel, it can be challenging to justify upfront investment in initiatives that may not pay off in the near term.
Other executives said that they face difficult trade-offs when managing supply chains while also trying to advance social and environmental agendas. Some companies struggle to align internally and externally on what are the most pressing issues to address within the social and environmental landscape. Strategies that seek to align sustainability goals with internal and external expectations, practices, timelines, and financing may enable more effective outcomes.
Conclusion
This inaugural State of Supply Chain Sustainability 2020 Report identified many key learnings, including:
• Pressure to act on sustainability is coming from multiple sources, not just NGOs.
• Pressure drives action; companies receiving pressure are more likely to set sustainability goals.
Nuanced learnings emerged in the differences among industries in goals and practices, as well as between professional and executive perceptions. Understanding the big picture of supply chain sustainability, as well as recognizing differences across professional positions and industries, can help equip supply chain professionals for the future.
The 2020 report will examine these uncertainties, what role supply chain management will continue to play in pursuing progress toward achieving social and environmental goals, and will provide further clarity on the likely evolution of supply chain sustainability.
Notes:
1. A. Sartori, “Increasing Pressure to Demonstrate Supply Chain Sustainability: How Can It Become an Opportunity?” Consumer Goods Forum (2018)
2. M. Jones, “The Pressure Is Mounting for Sustainable Supply Chains,” Tech HQ (2019)
3. Deloitte, “Tracking the Trends 2018: The Top 10 Issues Shaping Mining in the Year Ahead” (2018)
4. K. Hund, D. Porta, T.P. LaFabregas, T. Laing, and J. Drexhage, “Minerals for Climate in the Metals and Minerals Industry,” Matériaux & Techniques (2018): 105(503)
5. S. Pearson, L. Magalhaes, and P. Kowsmann, “Brazil’s Vale Vowed ‘Never Again.’ Then Another Dam Collapsed,” The Wall Street Journal (2019)
6. Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations, “Child Labour in Agriculture,” (2019)
7. Gartner, “Supply Chain Brief: Make Strategic Choices for Measuring and Reporting Sustainability Performance What You Need to Know” (2019)
8. Supply Chain Navigator, “Intel: The Making of a Conflict-Free Supply Chain” (2015)
“The past year has been unprecedented, with extreme weather events, heightened geopolitical tension and cybercrime destabilizing supply chains throughout the world. Navigating this year’s looming risks to build a secure supply network has never been more critical,” Corey Rhodes, CEO of Everstream Analytics, said in the firm’s “2025 Annual Risk Report.”
“While some risks are unavoidable, early notice and swift action through a combination of planning, deep monitoring, and mitigation can save inventory and lives in 2025,” Rhodes said.
In its report, Everstream ranked the five categories by a “risk score metric” to help global supply chain leaders prioritize planning and mitigation efforts for coping with them. They include:
Drowning in Climate Change – 90% Risk Score. Driven by shifting climate patterns and record-high temperatures, extreme weather events are a dominant risk to the supply chain due to concerns such as flooding and elevated ocean temperatures.
Geopolitical Instability with Increased Tariff Risk – 80% Risk Score. These threats could disrupt trade networks and impact economies worldwide, including logistics, transportation, and manufacturing industries. The following major geopolitical events are likely to impact global trade: Red Sea disruptions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Taiwan trade risks, Middle East tensions, South China Sea disputes, and proposed tariff increases.
More Backdoors for Cybercrime – 75% Risk Score. Supply chain leaders face escalating cybersecurity risks in 2025, driven by the growing reliance on AI and cloud computing within supply chains, the proliferation of IoT-connected devices, vulnerabilities in sub-tier supply chains, and a disproportionate impact on third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and the electronics industry.
Rare Metals and Minerals on Lockdown – 65% Risk Score. Between rising regulations, new tariffs, and long-term or exclusive contracts, rare minerals and metals will be harder than ever, and more expensive, to obtain.
Crackdown on Forced Labor – 60% Risk Score. A growing crackdown on forced labor across industries will increase pressure on companies who are facing scrutiny to manage and eliminate suppliers violating human rights. Anticipated risks in 2025 include a push for alternative suppliers, a cascade of legislation to address lax forced labor issues, challenges for agri-food products such as palm oil and vanilla.
Specifically, the two sides remain at odds over provisions related to the deployment of semi-automated technologies like rail-mounted gantry cranes, according to an analysis by the Kansas-based 3PL Noatum Logistics. The ILA has strongly opposed further automation, arguing it threatens dockworker protections, while the USMX contends that automation enhances productivity and can create long-term opportunities for labor.
In fact, U.S. importers are already taking action to prevent the impact of such a strike, “pulling forward” their container shipments by rushing imports to earlier dates on the calendar, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. That strategy can help companies to build enough safety stock to dampen the damage of events like the strike and like the steep tariffs being threatened by the incoming Trump administration.
Likewise, some ocean carriers have already instituted January surcharges in pre-emption of possible labor action, which could support inbound ocean rates if a strike occurs, according to freight market analysts with TD Cowen. In the meantime, the outcome of the new negotiations are seen with “significant uncertainty,” due to the contentious history of the discussion and to the timing of the talks that overlap with a transition between two White House regimes, analysts said.
Maersk’s overall view of the coming year is that the global economy is expected to grow modestly, with the possibility of higher inflation caused by lingering supply chain issues, continued geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policies such as new tariffs. Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions could threaten global stability, climate change action will continue to shape international cooperation, and the ongoing security issue in the Red Sea is expected to continue into 2025.
Those are difficult challenges, but according to Maersk, a vital part of logistics planning is understanding where risk and weak spots might be and finding ways to dampen the impact of inevitable hurdles.
They include:
1. Build a resilient supply chain As opposed to simply maintaining traditional network designs, Maersk says it is teaming with Hapag-Lloyd to implement a new East-West network called Gemini, beginning in February, 2025. The network will use leaner mainliners and shuttles together, allowing for isolation of port disruptions, minimizing the impact of disruptions to supply chains and routes. More broadly, companies should work with an integrated logistics partner that has multiple solutions—be they by air, truck, barge or rail—allowing supply chains to adapt around issues, while still meeting consumer demands.
2. Implementing technological advances
A key component in ensuring more resilience against disruptions is working with a supply chain supplier that offers advanced real-time tracking systems and AI-powered analytics to provide comprehensive visibility across supply chains. An AI-powered dashboard of analytics can provide end-to-end visibility of shipments, tasks, and updates, enabling efficient logistics management without the need to chase down data. Also, forecasting tools can give predictive analytics to optimize inventory, reduce waste, and enhance efficiency. And incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) into digital solutions can enable live tracking of containers to monitor shipments.
3. Preparing for anything, instead of everything Contingency planning was a big theme for 2024, and remains so for 2025. That need is highlighted by geopolitical instability, climate change and volatility, and changes to tariffs and legislation. So in 2025, businesses should seek to partner with a logistics partner that offers risk and disruption navigation through pre-planned procedures, risk assessments, and alternative solutions.
4. Diversifying all aspects of the supply chain Supply chains have felt the impact of disruption throughout 2024, with the situation in the Red Sea resulting in all shipping having to avoid the Suez Canal, and instead going around the Cape of Good Hope. This has increased demand throughout the year, resulting in businesses trying to move cargo earlier to ensure they can meet customer needs, and even considering nearshoring. As regionalization has become more prevalent, businesses can use nearshoring to diversify suppliers and reduce their dependency on single sources. By ensuring that these suppliers and manufacturers are closer to the consumer market, businesses can keep production costs lower as well as have more ease of reaching markets and avoid delay-related risks from global disruptions. Utilizing options closer to market can also allow companies to better adapt to changes in consumer needs and behavior. Finally, some companies may also find it useful to stock critical materials for future, to act as a buffer against unexpected delays and/or issues relating to trade embargoes.
5. Understanding tariffs, legislation and regulations 2024 was year of customs regulations in EU. And tariffs are expected in the U.S. as well, once the new Trump Administration takes office. However, consistent with President-elect Trump’s first term, threats of increases are often used as a negotiating tool. So companies should take a wait and see approach to U.S. customs, even as they cope with the certainty that further EU customs are set to come into play.
Waves of change are expected to wash over workplaces in the new year, highlighted by companies’ needs to balance the influx of artificial intelligence (AI) with the skills, capabilities, and perspectives that are uniquely human, according to a study from Top Employers Institute.
According to the Amsterdam-based human resources (HR) consulting firm, 2025 will be the year that the balance between individual and group well-being will evolve, blending personal empowerment with collective goals. The focus will be on creating environments where individual contributions enhance the overall strength of teams and organizations, and where traditional boundaries are softened to allow for greater collaboration and inclusion.
Those were the findings of the group’s report titled "World of work trends 2025: The collective workforce.” The study was based on data drawn from the anonymized responses of 2,175 global participants of the Top Employers Institute’s HR Best Practices Survey for 2025, and 2,200 organizations from its 2024 edition.
To cope with those broad trends, the report found that companies must adopt “systems thinking,” a way of understanding how different parts of a system—whether an organization or a society—are connected and influence each other. Leaders who learn that skill can design holistic strategies that align employee needs with organizational priorities and broader societal challenges, the group said.
Toward that goal, the report highlights five trends that are reshaping and impacting the global workforce for 2025. They include:
Sustainable Workplaces - integrated partnership between society and organizations. In 2025, organizations will face growing pressure to address global challenges ranging from ethical AI use in the workplace to demographic changes like declining birth rates and an aging population. These issues are no longer isolated from business; they demand an integrated partnership between society and organizations. For example, labor shortages driven by demographic changes challenge companies to rethink their workforce strategies for future sustainability; for example, family-friendly offerings have increased substantially over the last year as employers acknowledge the reality that many more people are now responsible for aging relatives as well as young children.
New belonging – networking beyond to connect with various jobs, industries, and networks. Unlike previous generations, today’s employees change jobs and careers with greater fluidity, spanning multiple organizations over relatively short periods. This shift is reshaping the traditional, company-centered sense of belonging into a more dynamic, interconnected experience. Employees no longer expect to build lasting relationships solely within a single organization, but rather they form communities that stretch across various jobs, industries, and networks, sometimes even in public coworking spaces where the people they interact with daily may not even work for the same company. However, this fluidity offers companies a unique advantage: as employees move between organizations and interact with diverse professionals in shared spaces, they bring with them fresh ideas, innovations, and relationships that generate significant value.
Transforming experiences – “new collar” jobs. In 2025, we will see a substantial blurring of the traditional categories of “white collar” jobs—typically clerical, administrative, managerial, and executive roles—and “blue collar” jobs, which are typically found in the agriculture, manufacturing, construction, mining, or maintenance sectors. The nature of jobs once considered blue-collar has changed dramatically, thanks in no small part to advancements in technology, especially AI. Post pandemic, there seems to be a much higher demand in many places around the world for skilled trades and manual labor, coupled with a growing emphasis for needed skills over formal qualifications. This shift, sometimes described as the rise of “new collar” jobs, combines the technical expertise often associated with blue-collar work with the adaptability and digital skills needed in today’s job market.
Neuroinclusion - a competitive advantage. Organizations are also increasingly recognizing the advantages of including neurodivergent individuals in the workplace, hiring people with autism, dyslexia, dyspraxia, dyscalculia, and ADHD, as well as certain mental health conditions. In addition to bringing bringing unique perspectives and capabilities, these employees are also an important part of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI). This practice often requires companies to provide accommodation, adjustments, and support, but 2025 will bring a more radical shift, as neuroinclusivity is evolving from an afterthought to a foundational principle in workplace design, culture, and HR policies.
AI-powered leadership - balance between human intuition and AI’s analytical power.
If 2024 marked AI’s disruption of highly skilled roles like software development and healthcare, 2025 will be the year AI reshapes the highest levels of leadership, bringing a new balance between human intuition and AI’s analytical power. In this evolving landscape, leadership is no longer an individual pursuit, but a collective effort changed by intelligent systems. AI is not just influencing mid-level roles; it is becoming a partner in the C-suite, helping leaders navigate complexity, understand team dynamics, and make strategic decisions that benefit the entire organization.
For an island measuring a little less than 14,000 square miles (or about the size of Belgium), Taiwan plays a crucial role in global supply chains, making geopolitical concerns associated with it of keen interest to most major corporations.
Taiwan has essentially acted as an independent nation since 1949, when the nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island following the communist takeover of mainland China. Yet China has made no secret of the fact that it wants to bring Taiwan back under its authority—ambitions that were brought to the fore in October when China launched military drills that simulated an attack on the island.
If China were to invade Taiwan, it could have serious political and social consequences that would ripple around the globe. And it would be particularly devastating to our supply chains, says consultant Ashray Lavsi, a principal at the global procurement and supply chain consultancy Efficio. He specializes in solving complex supply chain, operations, and procurement problems, with a special focus on resilience. Prior to joining Efficio’s London office in 2017, he worked at XPO Logistics in the U.S. and the Netherlands.
Lavsi spoke recently with David Maloney, Supply Chain Xchange’s group editorial director, about what might happen if China moves to annex Taiwan—what shortages would likely arise, the impact on shipping lanes and ocean freight costs, and what managers should be doing now to prepare for potential disruptions ahead.
It’s no secret that China has ambitions on Taiwan. If China were to attempt to seize control of Taiwan, how would that affect the world’s supply chains?
There would be wide-ranging disruptions around the world. The United States does a lot of trade with both China and Taiwan. For example, the U.S. imports about $470 billion worth of goods from China, while China imports about $124 billion from the U.S. Meanwhile, Taiwan is the No. 9 trading partner for the U.S. So all of this trade could come to a halt, depending on the level of conflict. Supplies would likely be disrupted, and trade routes could be affected, resulting in delays and higher shipping costs.
Furthermore, there would likely be disruptions to trade not just between the U.S. and China, but also across the board. It could very well be that the NATO members get involved, that South Korea gets involved, that Japan gets involved, the Philippines get involved, so it could very quickly spiral into widespread disruptions.
We’ve seen big changes in the way businesses in Hong Kong operate since Britain handed control of Hong Kong over to China nearly 30 years ago. If China were to succeed in bringing Taiwan under its authority, would we see a similar outcome?
Indeed, I would expect so. I read recently that since around 2020, foreign direct investment in Hong Kong has dropped by nearly 50%, from $105 million to $54 million. The drop was primarily because of increased regulatory oversight. There are now a lot of restrictions on freedom of speech as well as tighter control over business operations. Something similar could very well happen in Taiwan if China were to succeed in taking over the island.
As you mentioned, the United States conducts a lot of trade with both Taiwan and China, and both countries have become strategic supply chain partners. Beyond the diplomatic considerations, what would a military or economic conflict mean for the United States?
There is a lot of trade in goods like agricultural products, aircraft, electronic components, and machinery, and our access to all of those items could be cut off. On top of that, China controls 70% of the world’s rare earth minerals [which are crucial for the production of a wide variety of electronic devices]. So any conflict in the region would almost certainly result in many disruptions, particularly in critical sectors like technology and electronics—disruptions that would lead to shortages and increased costs.
Trade routes would also be affected, resulting in delays and higher shipping costs. U.S. companies would need to seek out alternative suppliers for critical materials or components they currently source in China, if they haven’t already. And if they haven’t lined up alternative suppliers, any hostilities could result in a complete halt in production.
What effect would such a move have on the global economy?
It’s been quite a few years since economies have just been localized. Any disruption now has widespread ripple effects across the world. As we discussed, any conflict between the United States and China naturally pulls in countries like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the NATO countries, and it can very quickly spiral out.
Look at the semiconductor, or chip, shortages. If you recall, back in 2021, those shortages led to almost a half-trillion-dollar loss for the automakers, who lost out on sales of 7.7 million vehicles because they couldn’t meet demand. We could see a repeat of that situation—maybe even on a larger scale.
I found this statistic interesting—we often talk about the semiconductor shortages during the pandemic, but if you look at true production numbers, the actual production of chips went up from 2020, to 2021, to 2022. The shortage was driven not by a drop in production, but rather, by a surge in demand for PCs from people working from home. That demand has since dwindled, but we’d still face a major semiconductor shortage if much of the production were halted. So that’s going to be a very big change, a very big disruption.
Of course, the United States, along with a number of other countries, has taken steps to reduce its exposure to risk by bringing some semiconductor production back to its own shores. But it will take time to get those operations up and running, and their output would still be just a drop in the bucket compared to what’s needed. So what would a takeover of Taiwan mean for the overall semiconductor flow?
It essentially stops, right? Let me paint a picture that illustrates the importance of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry to global manufacturing. Semiconductors go into everything from cars to military equipment to computers to data centers to microwaves—they are in everything around us. Taiwan produces 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the advanced chips. Just let that sink in: More than 90% of all the advanced chips produced worldwide come from Taiwan, primarily from a big fabrication company called TSMC.
So the complexity and the precision required to make advanced semiconductors, combined with the limited number of companies around the world, make Taiwan’s position unmatched. The second-largest producer after TSMC is South Korean-based Samsung, which produces 18%, so that’s the gap that we are talking about.
As you rightly said, there are efforts by governments across the world to reduce their reliance on Taiwan. For example, TSMC is building three fabrication facilities in Arizona—the third with funding from the U.S. government. The first plant is set to go live next year and the third by 2030. But even once all three plants are up and running, the production volumes won’t be close to what TSMC produces in Taiwan. It’s going to take years to reduce our reliance on production in Taiwan. If that supply is cut off, the ripple effect will be tremendous.
Setting aside the historical and political claims China has made on Taiwan, is Taiwan’s dominance in the semiconductor industry a main reason why China has set its sights on it?
It could be. China has been investing heavily in chip production—for instance, today, most, if not all, of the chips in the latest Huawei phones are locally produced in China. But China is still quite a few years behind TSMC. So that’s definitely going to be one of the big factors, right? One article that I found very interesting declared that chips are the new oil. If you control chip production, you control the global market.
Let’s talk about the implications for shipping lanes. If you take a look at the map, you realize that the Taiwan Strait is a very important shipping lane for containerized goods coming out of both China and Taiwan. If China were to institute a military blockade, how would that affect the world’s container flows?
That flow would be affected tremendously. The Taiwan Strait plays a crucial role in global shipping, particularly for goods moving between Asia and the rest of the world. It is one of the busiest shipping lanes, and any blockage would severely disrupt global container flows.
Now let me put that into perspective. Fifty percent of the world’s containerships pass through the Taiwan Strait—50%. That’s a huge number. By comparison, the Suez Canal handles about 20% of global trade. Or to use another measure: 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022.
I’ve been reading up on this in the past few months and it seems that a military blockage is a very likely scenario—one that would cripple Taiwan’s economy without a full-scale invasion. So instead of a mounting a full-on attack, China might just block the strait, which would lead to delays in the delivery of goods, affecting global supply chains and causing shortages across Asia and the U.S.
Given the escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, should shippers and manufacturers be preparing today for a potential conflict?
Businesses have to begin preparing today. If businesses were to say, “Okay, I’m going to wait until the conflict breaks out, and then figure out what I’ll do,” it will be too late. You’re done. Your production comes to halt. You can no longer satisfy your customer requirements. So proactive measures are an absolute requirement.
What should they do to prepare?
I would urge manufacturers and shippers to take what’s essentially a two-pronged approach.
First, you need to segment and identify your critical components, based on how crucial they are to your production operations and the risk associated with their sources, where they’re coming from. After you segment them, you list your top-priority items—the critical components that you absolutely cannot do without. You then split your supply chain into two, so that you have a much more redundant supply chain built for those critical items and then a second supply chain for everything else.
To build redundancy, you establish multiple suppliers and diversify them geographically. You also build in stringent contingency measures, which could include strategic stockpiling, nearshoring, and friendshoring, which is where you store inventory with an ally or in a friend consortium, as well as buying alternative components wherever possible. So all of those measures need to be put in place for the components that you’ve identified as absolutely critical for your production.
What is the second prong?
The second prong is the need to manage increased costs. There’s no getting away from higher costs, right? If you’re holding more inventory, you have higher inventory carrying costs. And if you’re diversifying your supply base, that means you don’t have as much leverage [with individual suppliers]. You’re also going to be managing multiple supply chains, which requires an increase in human capital because you’ll need more people to manage the more complex supply chains that you’re putting in place.
One way to manage costs could be by implementing strategic sourcing programs across the board that are aimed at mitigating some of the expenses. By taking these steps, manufacturers can safeguard their operations against potential disruptions and ensure continuity.
A lot of U.S. companies have been nearshoring to Mexico, which has now become the United States’ leading trade partner. Is that a simple solution for companies looking to reduce their reliance on Asia?
It is one of the solutions. But you won’t be able to replace your Asian supply base immediately—as with semiconductors, it may take a few years to build out that capacity.
So you need to start stockpiling essential components now—particularly if you won’t be able to find alternatives. You want to make sure that you’re holding the right amount of inventory of the components that you absolutely need. So nearshoring is an option, but you need to be careful what you move to Mexico.
Is that because moving production to Mexico will raise your costs compared to sourcing in Asia?
Yes, production costs will be higher compared to a place like Vietnam, where wages are currently lower than in Mexico. It might reduce the logistics cost, but I think there’s still a net increase overall because you’ll have higher expenses for things like regulatory compliance. Plus you’ll have the one-time cost of setting up the facilities.
Ideally, you’ll never have to face these problems we’ve been talking about, but it’s always better to be prepared.
Editor’s note:This article first appeared in the November 2024 issue of our sister publication DC Velocity.