An improving economy and a strong lineup of speakers and presentation topics drew more than 3,100 supply chain professionals from 41 countries to this year's Annual Global Conference in San Diego, California, USA. Participants enjoyed three days of educational seminars along with the new "Supply Chain of the Future" exhibition, which showcased cutting-edge supply chain technology, equipment, and services.
Not able to attend the conference this year or unable to get to all of the sessions you would have liked to attend? The following roundup of some of the sessions and events CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly's editors attended during the conference will help you fill in some of those gaps.
For additional information on this year's conference as well as the 2011 conference, which will take place from Oct. 2?5 in Philadelphia, visit the conference's website.
New board officers announced
In addition to being an educational event, CSCMP's Annual Global Conference also serves as the association's annual business meeting. As part of those proceedings, members elected the following officers to its board of directors:
Board of Directors Chair: Keith Turner, vice president of marketing and sales, Alcoa World Alumina
Immediate Past Chair: Robert B. Silverman, vice president of IT business systems, Tommy Hilfiger USA
Board Chair-Elect: Nancy W. Nix, executive director of the EMBA Program and professor of supply chain practice, Texas Christian University
Board Vice Chair: Rick J. Jackson, executive vice president, Limited Logistics Services
Secretary and Treasurer: Heather L. Sheehan, corporate director of global logistics, Danaher Corp.
A list of committee chairs who were appointed to CSCMP's Board of Directors is available here.
Long-time innovator honored with Distinguished Service Award
Chuck Taylor has never been afraid to tackle a difficult problem. In the 1980s, Taylor helped logistics and transportation professionals envision how the industry could operate after deregulation. Now, he's helping supply chain professionals envision how they can succeed after the end of "cheap oil."
CSCMP recently recognized Taylor for his lifetime commitment to finding practical solutions to intractable problems as well as for sharing that knowledge with others. At its 2010 Annual Global Conference in San Diego, the organization presented Taylor with its 45th Distinguished Service Award.
Taylor currently serves as principal of Awake! Consulting, an organization he founded to encourage supply chain professionals to get involved in shaping national energy policy. (See Taylor's article "The end of cheap oil: Are you ready?" from the Quarter 2/2007 issue of Supply Chain Quarterly.) It was appropriate, then, that Taylor used his acceptance speech at the conference to remind those in attendance that the industry is facing the unprecedented challenge of growing the economy while simultaneously reducing our dependence on oil.
But his message was not all gloom and doom. Taylor remains optimistic about the supply chain profession's ability to respond to this challenge. "There are incredible opportunities available for reducing waste and for conservation," he said. "In that way, supply chain improvements are better than new oil fields."
In fact, the end of cheap oil presents an enormous opportunity for supply chain professionals, according to Taylor. "You are a prerequisite for survival, and you will deliver as you always have," he said.
CSCMP session sampler
Here are summaries of just a few of the educational sessions that sparked interest at the annual conference. CSCMP members can learn more about these and other sessions by downloading the presentation slides from CSCMP's website. Slides are available at the "2010 Session Presentation Search" section under the "Educational Events" tab. A member log-in is required.
Panama: crossroads of global trade
The long-awaited Panama Canal expansion, slated for completion in 2014, will be a "game changer" that will make Panama "the most important cargo hub in the Americas," declared Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority's vice president of market research and analysis, in his keynote speech at the Annual Global Conference.
Sabonge said the new, larger locks now under construction will fundamentally change the way carriers deploy their vessels because they will accommodate much bigger ships than the current infrastructure can handle. He predicted that some carriers would adopt a "reverse intermodal" approach, skipping calls on the U.S. West Coast and funneling containers destined for other U.S. markets through transshipment hubs in Panama. That route will be cheaper than intermodal moves via West Coast ports, particularly for 53-foot containers, he asserted. Furthermore, carriers will see financial benefit in picking up backhauls from the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and Central and South America and feeding them into east-west routes served by the new class of giant, post-Panamax vessels, Sabonge said.
Containerized shipping is not the only industry segment that will benefit from an expanded Panama Canal. Large bulk and liquid carriers that currently are too large to transit the canal will have an entirely new route open to them, Sabonge said. For example, liquid natural gas (LNG) tankers will for the first time be able to use the canal. As a result, transportation and logistics costs for some commodities will drop sharply, and new markets and trade lanes will open up. In particular, this development will facilitate new trade flows between South America, Europe, and China, he said.
Changing trade and cost patterns as well as strong economic growth in South American markets will attract more manufacturing, assembly, and logistics operations to Panama, Sabonge predicted. To accommodate that anticipated growth, Panama is expanding the already city-sized Colón Free Zone near the canal's Atlantic entry point. According to the Free Zone's website, there are now 10 warehouse projects under way or planned for the near future. At the other end of the canal, the Panamá Pacífico industrial development is opening new office, warehousing, and manufacturing properties for international companies at a rapid pace. To help meet expected demand for a trained workforce, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and its Colombian affiliate, the Center for Latin American Logistics Innovation, will soon open a logistics and transportation education center in Panama.
New metrics will forecast supply chain trends
Academics and software companies are developing "predictive metrics" that will detect early warning signs of future problems in a supply chain. Unlike traditional metrics, which use historical data to benchmark activities, predictive metrics use information to identify a trend line and predict a shift in an activity before it happens. "Predictive metrics complement historical reporting for better decision making," said Lynda Haydamous, a project manager at the Boeing Company, in a session on that topic at the conference.
Current research on predictive metrics is attempting to determine the underlying factors that could cause future supply chain problems. For instance, high employee turnover might indicate that a supplier may have trouble delivering quality products. Other research is focusing on shifts in the areas of supply and demand, said Lawrence Lapide, a research affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center for Transportation and Logistics. Examples of a supply shift include a supplier becoming unreliable, going out of business, or manufacturing degraded products. An example of a demand shift would be a customer dramatically increasing its orders.
The most important supply chain predictive metric now in development is the "Inventory Mix Quality Index," which indicates how an overstock or understock will affect the profit margin of a particular product, said ToolsGroup Chief Executive Officer Joseph D. Shamir. He believes that this metric could indicate when supply chain planners need to take corrective action to maintain profitability for specific stock-keeping units.
Ultimately the development of predictive metrics will help companies to better align their supply chains with their corporate objectives. As a result, the new metrics are popular with many corporate executives, Shamir said.
Get to know your customer
At many companies, supply chain interactions with the customer begin and end with making sure that the products are delivered when and where the customer wants them. At Avery Dennison, however, supply chain managers don't just focus on getting product to the customer, they also serve as an extension of the sales force.
Avery Dennison, which is one of the largest manufacturers of pressure-sensitive materials like labels, is both bigger and more supply chain-savvy than many of its customers. In fact, members of the company's Supply Chain Services Group often find themselves serving as logistics teachers and consultants to their customers, said Kent Packer, director of supply chain services, during a presentation at the conference.
Avery Dennison's supply chain specialists use sales calls as an opportunity to learn more about a customer's supply chain by asking questions like: What aspect of your supply chain drives you crazy? What's holding you back from success? What are your inventory turns?
If the customer reveals, for instance, that it's struggling with stocking problems, the Avery Dennison specialist might walk the client through basic inventory management concepts. From there, the discussion might turn to ways in which Avery Dennison's delivery services can help the client reduce its inventory (35 percent of Avery Dennison's offerings can be delivered in 24 hours). "We tell them, 'Let us be your warehouse,'" said Packer.
Programs such as this can not only help you make additional sales but also make you indispensable to your customer, said co-presenter Stan Fawcett of Brigham Young University. He noted that more companies want to rationalize their supplier base. A supplier that makes itself indispensable to its customer has a greater chance of keeping that business, he said.
Easy days are over for shippers
A top executive at International Paper said the days of abundant capacity and cheap rates in the U.S. trucking market are over. As a result, shippers need to prepare for a world where "we're not going to be able to move freight... the way we have in the past."
Tom Carpenter, director of logistics for North America for International Paper Company (IP), said the possible tightening of driver hours-of-service regulations together with the implementation of federal rules governing driver safety could take thousands of drivers and their rigs off the road. Another problem is the lack of infrastructure investment. "We are not, as a country, sufficiently reinvesting in our infrastructure to keep up with tonnage increases," said Carpenter, noting that truck traffic is growing 11 times faster than the growth of highway capacity.
IP belongs to the Coalition for Transportation Productivity, a group dedicated to raising the gross vehicle-weight limit to 97,000 pounds for single-trailer trucks operating on the nation's interstate highways and adding a sixth axle to the trailer for better braking and balance. Carpenter said that raising the gross vehicle-weight limit would enable the same amount of freight to be hauled in fewer trucks.
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."