A year after struggling to find a place to replenish their household stock of toilet paper, consumers are becoming more familiar with the workings of the supply chain and are increasingly concerned about product shortages, according to a survey from enterprise software firm SAP, released Monday.
SAP polled 1,000 U.S. consumers in February for their perspective on the greatest supply chain “pain points” one year into the Covid-19 pandemic. More than a third (37%) said they have lost confidence in supply chains and nearly half (48%) said they have changed their buying habits to include bulk shopping or restocking household items earlier than they did before the pandemic-induced lockdowns took hold last spring.
“One year ago, 63% of consumers struggled to find a place to buy toilet paper,” the researchers said. “Shelves are stocked now, but there are lasting effects on the broader supply chain. [Thirty-five percent of consumers] say their favorite grocers and retailers are still dealing with out-of-stock issues.”
The survey also found that 70% of consumers switched brands due to supply chain problems, and 29% of them never switched back. In addition, consumers say they are concerned about a lack of supply in 2021, including food (48%), hygienic or personal care products, such as toilet paper (44%), and personal protective equipment (PPE), such as face masks (33%). They are also worried about pending product shortages: 84% of survey respondents said they’re concerned about the availability of electronic components, which are critical to producing everything from smartphones to cars and trucks.
The changing behaviors and shifting attitudes are causing retailers, e-commerce companies, and others along the supply chain to rethink their supply chain management and sourcing strategies. Part of the change includes finding alternate sources of supply to meet demand more quickly or keeping more stock of certain items on hand. Agility and end-to-end visibility remain key components of any good strategy as well, according to SAP.
“More than any singular event in modern history, the coronavirus pandemic has brought the global supply chains’ systemic weaknesses into sharp focus. To restore these links to full strength, businesses need to broaden visibility not only across their own operations but those of their trading partners, with the dual objectives of reducing risk and instilling resilience,” according to Sean Thompson, executive vice president, network and ecosystem, procurement solutions, for SAP. “A key area of focus is the symbiotic relationship between buyer and supplier. By proactively addressing the supplier experience, businesses can benefit from even more than increased resiliency–they also can leverage supplier expertise to identify opportunities to enhance efficiency. Additionally, when buyers and suppliers align on shared priorities, this enables collaboration and knowledge-sharing to improve product and service innovations together.”
Developing digital strategies is also important.
“By embedding direct materials procurement into product planning and manufacturing, and by sharing accurate, up-to-the-moment information enabled by digital networks, organizations can more strategically plan demand, run material requirements, evaluate time horizons, and determine what components are needed where and when,” Thompson also said. “Then, by strategically sourcing materials across a global, diverse supply base connected to a digital network, companies can procure the goods they need when they need it.”
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
We are in the golden age of warehouse automation. Supply chain leaders today have a dizzying array of new automated solutions to choose from. These include autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS), automated case-handling mobile robots, robotic pickers, and advanced software. While predominantly manual facilities remain, advancements in automation are improving existing facilities and use cases demonstrate in very real ways how robotics will forever alter supply chains.
But while the potential gains from automation can be significant, it’s also important to realize that no two organizations’ needs are the same. There is no cookie cutter approach to warehouse automation and robotics. A successful implementation requires not only strategic planning and investment but also a full understanding of the organization’s own unique needs. Before it installs any automation, a company must have a clear picture of its specific processes and requirements and ensure solutions are tailored to its operations. This involves identifying the needs of the specific sector or market segment that the company is trying to serve, what its growth potential is, and where it currently is in its automation journey.
To show how this can be done, let’s take a closer look at the retail industry. Today’s retail distribution centers are some of the most advanced materials handling facilities ever built, simultaneously supporting fulfillment for online purchases and enabling the efficient stocking of brick-and-mortar stores. These facilities demonstrate the impact automation and robotics advancements can have on distribution operations, including enabling unprecedented performance and throughput levels that were unimaginable a few short years ago. For this reason, reviewing the strategic considerations a retailer may face on the way to making a business case for automation will provide a model not just for other retailers but for companies in other industries as well.
Tackling long-standing challenges
Warehouse robotics and automation can help retailers respond to a variety of longstanding challenges. First, there is the growth of e-commerce. The volume of online purchases continues to increase, even as the rate of growth slows to pre-pandemic norms. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, despite ongoing inflationary forces, American consumers spent more than $300 billion online in the third quarter of 2024, which represented 16.2% of total retail sales and a 7.4% percent increase over the same period in 2023.
Each online purchase is essentially an ad hoc event, making the resulting fulfillment more complex and demanding than the regular, scheduled replenishment of in-store inventories. Automation plays a vital role in helping retailers overcome these challenges. By automating key processes, retailers can achieve faster throughput, can more efficiently handle a larger variety of stock-keeping units (SKUs), and can maintain exceptional order accuracy. Automated systems streamline order picking, packing, and shipping, reducing errors and speeding up operations. This allows retailers to keep up with the growing demands of e-commerce while ensuring customer satisfaction with precise and timely deliveries.
Then there is the issue of labor. Retail supply chain leaders face an ongoing and problematic shortage of workers. While the “2024 State of Warehouse Labor Report” from the online labor marketplace Instawork found some improvement in the labor market, more than 40% of surveyed businesses still reported that warehouse staffing levels remain a cause of revenue loss.
The implementation of automation and robotics in both existing brownfield and new greenfield warehouses is a direct response to these labor market concerns. All forms of warehouse automation, including robotics, are fundamentally efforts to address the shortage of labor or to increase its efficiency. For example, many automated solutions, such as AMRs, are designed to specifically address the most time-consuming activity in warehouses: the 78% of time employees spend walking.
There are other important benefits. Machines don’t require rest, and they are particularly effective at highly repetitive tasks, which are a leading cause of workplace injuries. Automation also creates new career paths for employees, transitioning them away from physically taxing activities that center on moving items through the warehouse to maintaining and overseeing the systems that assume those tasks. Finally, as the cost of labor rises, the cost of technology continues to decrease.
Implementation: Where to begin?
Automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) provides advanced storage capabilities and fast throughput. But they are typically more costly and take longer to implement than less automated systems.
Courtesy of Vanderlande
While the benefits of automation are clear, selecting the right solution for a specific operation can be daunting. To choose among the variety of automated solutions available, retail supply chain leaders must first consider the needs of their specific sector.
The grocery and food sector is a telling example. Few sectors have experienced as rapid a transformation in recent years as the grocery industry. Before the pandemic, online grocery sales were mostly limited to select metropolitan areas. Last year, online grocery sales in the U.S. reached $95.8 billion, according to the data and technology company Mercatus. Consumer grocery purchases are now split between three very distinct fulfillment models: ship-to-home, delivery, and pick-at-store. Those models and the retailer’s unique needs determine the type of warehouses required. As a result, the grocery sector sees everything from full standalone distribution centers to warehouse operations at the “back of the store” and even so–called dark stores—stores that are solely used as warehouses for online orders and are not open to the public.
Due to razor-thin margins and price-sensitive shoppers, the grocery sector is embracing advanced automation, such as AS/RS and palletizing robots. For example, they are utilizing software and automation to build pallets and pallet cages in a stable and space-efficient fashion with products arranged by store layout. By doing so, leading grocers and food retailers ensure that they can quickly move and stock items while keeping labor costs in check—all savings that enable them to maintain margins while competing on price.
Different considerations, however, are the main focus for automation projects in the apparel and general merchandising industries. In apparel, items need to be moved—typically in bags—without being damaged. Additionally, warehouses often have to manage the processing of returns. In both applications, pocket sorters are often used. In contrast, the general merchandise sector deals with highly variable SKUs and the rapid processing of online orders, making throughput levels and order accuracy critically important. Here, a high-performance AS/RS is often a natural choice.
Build new or sweat your existing warehouse assets?
Automated case-handling mobile robots are a good solution for companies looking for more "incremental" automation. Because they can use existing warehouse racks, they can be implemented faster than a more complex system.
Courtesy of Vanderlande
Where retailers are in their growth cycle and in their warehouse automation journey should also be carefully considered when determining what kinds of automation and robots are needed. These two factors will play a particularly strong role in determining whether a retailer implements new automation or sticks with what it already has. This is particularly true today when the cost of capital is a key consideration. As an example, let’s look at how this decision might play out in different retail sectors.
Fast-growing, mid-market retailers: Most of these organizations currently have largely manual distribution centers. They are predominantly moving to build more advanced, fully automated facilities that include AMRs, AS/RS, and robotic pickers. Primed for growth, they are foregoing the improvement of existing warehouses, as even modernization projects can't keep up with growing sales and risk becoming quickly obsolete.
Slower growing mid-market retailers: These companies are embracing more incremental automation. For example, many are deploying a system that includes automated case-handling mobile robots (ACRs). These robotic units are designed to move and retrieve goods stored in traditional, often pre-existing, warehouse racks. As a result, these systems can often be implemented in just a couple of months, offering a faster implementation timeline.
Other mid-market retailers are choosing to implement an AS/RS, which—while automating many of the same tasks—provides more advanced storage capabilities and faster throughput. These systems are, however, more costly and require a more comprehensive planning and installation process, as they can take a year or two to design and make operational.
The largest retail brands: These companies already rely on largely automated warehouses that utilize AS/RS, robotic pickers, and other solutions. They are increasingly choosing to “sweat their assets” by making incremental improvements—such as adding additional shuttles and more storage capacity to an already existing AS/RS or deploying additional robotic pickers to speed throughput. Such improvements can result in significant efficiency gains, without requiring any large capital investments.
No matter what type of automation is selected, however, successful implementation hinges on a crucially important step: creating an effective business case.
The crucially important business case
Before implementing any automation or robotic solution, a company must perform due diligence. It is critical that no project should proceed without first completing a detailed business case. There are several factors to consider, starting with the decision between modernizing an existing brownfield facility or building a new greenfield site. This choice requires evaluating the costs, growth potential, and the return on investment (ROI) associated with a more advanced warehouse system.
Importantly, the business case should not be created in a vacuum. Operational, financial, and legal leaders should all be involved. The process should be sure to incorporate the following steps:
Determine growth projections: No one has a crystal ball, but growth projections and plans should be carefully considered to determine if a new greenfield facility with advanced automation and robotics is viable and necessary. These cutting-edge solutions often deliver the highest ROI but come with significant upfront investment.
Determine the lifecycle of existing warehouses: Are they able to process the number of SKUs, achieve the throughput, and provide the storage capacity needed today? What about for the future? If not, can they be modernized to cost-effectively buy more time?
Calculate the timeframe needed to realize an ROI: How long will it take to achieve the ROI for your automation project over the cost of capital and labor that would be required in its absence? How does this compare to the lifespan of the facility or project in question? Are you looking to see your ROI in three years, five years, or ten? The time required to achieve the desired ROI is key.
Consider the costs and gains associated with incremental advancements: Even if it seems like a new, fully automated facility makes the most sense, consider the alternative approach of making incremental improvements. If you choose to move forward with a greenfield project, it is good to know you carefully considered existing assets.
Run the numbers on your dream warehouse: Even if a new facility that delivers the capabilities of high-performance robots and automation is likely out of reach, run the numbers anyway. It can feel safer to upgrade a warehouse than to build a new automated one, but no one wants to invest significant capital in a facility that hinders growth in the future.
Remember that no automation is automatic: Advanced solutions and robots are never a one-and-done purchase. They must be maintained and managed—tasks that require significant expertise, either from partners or through an investment in employees and training.
By carefully considering the needs and nuances that define success in their sector and creating a detailed business case, supply chain leaders can embrace emerging, powerful robotics and automation with confidence. Regardless of whether they choose to obtain the most advanced capabilities or take a more measured approach, they will do so with the confidence that their investments are based on proven strategies that position them for growth and success in the future.
About the authors: Jake Heldenberg is the director of North American Warehouse Sales Engineering, at Vanderlande. He oversees the design of warehouse systems that combine intelligent software, robotics, and advanced automation. Andy Lockhart is the director of strategic engagement, warehouse solutions, North America, at Vanderlande, where he provides retail customers with innovative, scalable systems; intelligent software; and reliable services to optimize distribution and fulfillment operations.
Shippers are actively preparing for changes in tariffs and trade policy through steps like analyzing their existing customs data, identifying alternative suppliers, and re-evaluating their cross-border strategies, according to research from logistics provider C.H. Robinson.
They are acting now because survey results show that shippers say the top risk to their supply chains in 2025 is changes in tariffs and trade policy. And nearly 50% say the uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy is already a pain point for them today, the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company said.
In a move to answer those concerns, C.H. Robinson says it has been working with its clients by running risk scenarios, building and implementing contingency plans, engineering and executing tariff solutions, and increasing supply chain diversification and agility.
“Having visibility into your full supply chain is no longer a nice-to-have. In 2025, visibility is a competitive differentiator and shippers without the technology and expertise to support real-time data and insights, contingency planning, and quick action will face increased supply chain risks,” Jordan Kass, President of C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions, said in a release.
The company’s survey showed that shippers say the top five ways they are planning for those risks: identifying where they can switch sourcing to save money, analyzing customs data, evaluating cross-border strategies, running risk scenarios, and lowering their dependence on Chinese imports.
President of C.H. Robinson Global Forwarding, Mike Short, said: “In today’s uncertain shipping environment, shippers are looking for ways to reduce their susceptibility to events that impact logistics but are out of their control. By diversifying their supply chains, getting access to the latest information and having a global supply chain partner able to flex with their needs at a moment’s notice, shippers can gain something they don’t always have when disruptions and policy changes occur - options.”
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”
Logistics service provider (LSP) DHL Supply Chain is continuing to extend its investments in global multi-shoring and in reverse logistics, marking efforts to help its clients adjust to the challenging business and economic conditions of 2025.
The company’s focus on improving e-commerce parcel flows comes as a time when retailers are facing an array of delivery challenges—both international and domestic—triggered by a cascade of swift changes in reciprocal tariffs, “de minimis” import fees, and other protectionist escalations of trade war conditions imposed by the newly seated Trump Administration. While business groups are largely opposed to those policies, they still need strategies to accommodate those rules of the road as long as the new rules remain in place.
Accordingly, DHL last week released a new study on the growing importance of multi-shoring strategies that go beyond the classic “China Plus 1” philosophy and focuses on diversifying production and supplier locations even further, to multiple countries. This expanded “China Plus X” strategy can help companies build resilient supply chains by choosing more diverse production locations in response to global trade disruptions. The study offers five criteria for sourcing goods from countries outside China such as India, Vietnam, Hungary, and Mexico, depending on the procurement needs of each particular industry.