July 4th holiday puts supply chain on high alert for freight theft
Cargo thieves will seek to exploit extended business closures this upcoming holiday to steal more cargo, especially computer electronics, experts warn.
Victoria Kickham, an editor at large for Supply Chain Quarterly, started her career as a newspaper reporter in the Boston area before moving into B2B journalism. She has covered manufacturing, distribution and supply chain issues for a variety of publications in the industrial and electronics sectors, and now writes about everything from forklift batteries to omnichannel business trends for Supply Chain Quarterly's sister publication, DC Velocity.
Transportation, logistics, and supply chain professionals should be on high alert this coming weekend as extended business closures signal a green light to cargo thieves, experts caution.
The warning comes in the wake of a recent CargoNet study revealing a record high level of theft last July 4th weekend, when activity rose 123% compared to 2019 to reach its highest level in four years. With extra time to get away with their crimes, thieves will target both in-transit freight and warehouse inventory again this year, with computer electronics as the most at-risk items.
“In previous years, household goods and food and beverage items were the most commonly targeted commodities. This would include items like appliances, toys, alcoholic beverages, and seafood,” according to CargoNet analysts. “The Covid-19 pandemic has caused shortages and price inflation of specific goods, and we think the items most affected—like computer electronics—are the items most at-risk this holiday.”
CargoNet reviewed theft data between July 1 and July 7 for the previous five years for its June 23 report. There were a total of 127 theft events reported in the analysis period, or an average of 25 per year. The average stolen shipment was worth $145,699 per event, and 42% of theft events occurred on a Friday or Saturday, according to the report. California, Texas, Florida, and Illinois recorded the most thefts over the five-year analysis period, and the analysts said those states remain the most at-risk this year. They also pointed to an increase in full truckload cargo theft across the South and Midwest.
Scott Cornell, transportation lead and crime and theft specialist at Travelers Insurance, attributed much of the 2020 cargo theft increase to the pandemic and its effects on the U.S. economy.
“We know that when we see anything impact the economy as a whole, we’ll see some significant shifts,” he said, pointing to a more than 60% increase in cargo theft during the second quarter of 2020, at the peak of the pandemic.
Coming into 2021, Cornell said the overall number of thefts was decreasing, but he also pointed to a shift in targeted items, echoing CargoNet’s data on computer electronics.
“We’ve seen significant trends toward computers, laptops,” he said, pointing to CargoNet’s data showing thieves targeting full truckloads of computer electronics from warehouses in California. CargoNet has recorded over 50 thefts of electronics shipments in the state since this past September, and thefts have increased 89% when compared to the previous year. On average, each full truckload theft event was worth $595,928 and each partial truckload $197,157, according to CargoNet.
Supply chain professionals can implement risk mitigation strategies to avoid the increased dangers this holiday weekend and for the longer term. Those include arranging for same-day delivery of short-haul shipments, embedding covert tracking devices, and using high-security locks to prevent trailer burglaries, according to CargoNet.
Cornell agreed and added that Travelers recommends a “layered” approach to security when it comes to combating cargo theft.
“A layered approach means [having] good processes and procedures first,” he said, adding that it should be “the foundation for everything you do.”
That foundation includes:
Educating employees and training all staff on what cargo theft is, what the current trends are, and raising general awareness of the problem;
Using a “red zone” rule, in which the driver doesn’t stop within the first 250 miles or so of pick up, which Cornell says can help cut down on thefts;
Using high-quality locking devices and avoiding loading trucks too early;
Making sure loads are stored in secure lots;
Implementing technology solutions, including covert tracking devices, which can be used in trailers and inside cargo;
Having a formal response plan in place in the event of a theft.
Although the long weekend will allow thieves more time to steal cargo and more time to get away with their crimes, Cornell says he expects the large increase in thefts recorded last year to slow in 2021.
“I think we’ll see some pullback; [we’ll] see the numbers level out,” he said, adding that second-quarter data on cargo theft will offer a good indication of where the trends are heading, especially as the economy reopens from the pandemic. “The more open we get, the more we’ll see things go back closer to pre-2020 [levels].”
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."
Even as the e-commerce sector overall continues expanding toward a forecasted 41% of all retail sales by 2027, many small to medium e-commerce companies are struggling to find the investment funding they need to increase sales, according to a sector survey from online capital platform Stenn.
Global geopolitical instability and increasing inflation are causing e-commerce firms to face a liquidity crisis, which means companies may not be able to access the funds they need to grow, Stenn’s survey of 500 senior e-commerce leaders found. The research was conducted by Opinion Matters between August 29 and September 5.
Survey findings include:
61.8% of leaders who sought growth capital did so to invest in advanced technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to improve their businesses.
When asked which resources they wished they had more access to, 63.8% of respondents pointed to growth capital.
Women indicated a stronger need for business operations training (51.2%) and financial planning resources (48.8%) compared to men (30.8% and 15.4%).
40% of business owners are seeking external financial advice and mentorship at least once a week to help with business decisions.
Almost half (49.6%) of respondents are proactively forecasting their business activity 6-18 months ahead.
“As e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, driven by increasing online consumer demand and technological innovation, it’s important to remember that capital constraints and access to growth financing remain persistent hurdles for many e-commerce business leaders especially at small and medium-sized businesses,” Noel Hillman, Chief Commercial Officer at Stenn, said in a release. “In this competitive landscape, ensuring liquidity and optimizing supply chain processes are critical to sustaining growth and scaling operations.”