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The trucking industry has long been sensitive to economic fluctuations, and the past couple of years have seen a great deal of pain in the industry, with the recent folding of many fleets. Following 27 months of consistent rate declines, 2024 has finally seen a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% in trucking rates. This modest rise has led some to speculate that the worst may be over, but this small uptick signals just a potential turning point. It is not yet an indication of full recovery. The industry won’t start to feel any true relief until it experiences one full quarter of positive gains, albeit accompanied by some turbulence.

The root cause of the industry’s ongoing struggles lie within the pandemic-driven imbalance between supply and demand. When demand surged during COVID-19, over 100,000 new trucking companies entered the market to capitalize on what was seen as a “hot” market. These new entrants purchased trucks at record-high prices, believing the pandemic-driven boom would last into the foreseeable future. But all good things end, and as demand tapered off in 2022, many were left with costly assets and loans they could no longer afford to maintain against a backdrop of rapidly falling rates. As a result, the trucking industry found itself awash in excess capacity, with rates plummeting accordingly.