Inventor and technology futurist Ray Kurzweil once said, “Inventing is a lot like surfing; you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment.”1 Bottom line: Timing matters when it comes to technology innovation.
In 2008, Gartner published a research paper that introduced the concept of supply chain convergence. Supply chain convergence is about the ability to observe, manage, orchestrate, and eventually optimize end-to-end (E2E) processes that span traditional functional and application boundaries.
Back in 2008, we felt that supply chain organizations needed to do a better job of orchestrating and synchronizing processes, subprocesses, and activities across functional domains such as planning, customer service, sourcing, warehousing, transportation, and manufacturing. In a perfect world, E2E processes would span all domains and application silos, creating flawless information and transactional flows.
Most organizations want to support E2E supply chain processes. The challenge is that their technology portfolios consist of many independent, loosely integrated applications that are often provided by different vendors. Those applications have various levels of maturity and are based on different technology architectures, often because users built or bought their applications at different times, for different needs, and with little thought given to how they connect with and support an E2E process.
Many companies integrate disparate applications by simply passing data back and forth—but this is not supply chain convergence. Rather, navigating a supply chain application environment in such a way is similar to playing rugby blindfolded. Sightless players run up and down the field tossing the ball—hopefully to their own teammates—before being wrestled to the ground. It’s hard to know what’s going on and coordination is nearly impossible.
In the supply chain management (SCM) application world, the ball might be an order moving from a customer relationship management (CRM) system to an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to a warehouse management system (WMS), and so on (see Figure 1). Because orders are simply thrown from one system to another, it is very hard to orchestrate the E2E process in one direction let alone bi-directionally.
So, while our 2008 hypothesis was sound, companies were not ready or able to pursue supply chain convergence at that time. The timing wasn’t right. Gartner has revisited this concept repeatedly over the years, but even today, most companies struggle to systematically integrate E2E processes in the fragmented supply chain functional and information technology (IT) environments that are still prevalent in most organizations.
But the time for supply chain convergence may, finally, be upon us. Some progress has been made. Companies have done a good job when it comes to optimizing vertical functional processes that are aligned with their applications portfolio. For example, a WMS does a good job of coordinating the work within the four walls of the warehouse, and a transportation management system (TMS) can optimize the mode and carrier selection process for multimodal shipments. The challenge, however, lies with orchestrating and optimizing horizontal processes that cut across functional and application silos. While cross-functional application integration is doable, it is complex, and true process synchronization across applications and functional domains remains challenging for many companies. Until recently it was impractical, if not impossible, to coordinate activities across all functional domains without some form of coordination technology.
However, the need for coordination across the supply chain has become increasingly more important. Supply chains have become more distributed and outsourcing more pervasive, meaning that network complexity has increased. At the same time, product complexity has also increased. And then, enter COVID-19. The global pandemic and its lingering effects have showed how fragile global supply chains are and have forced companies to rethink how they support end-to-end processes.
The rise of microservices
Remember, the timing of technology innovation matters. When convergence was first discussed, many assumed that the solution was easy: just buy all your supply chain applications from a single vendor. This approach seems logical until we dig deeper into how supply chain applications are built and deployed even within large application suite providers. There are notably different architectural models for delivering supply chain applications. These can broadly be categorized as application portfolios vs. platforms (see Figure 2.)
[Figure 2] Application architecture: portfolio vs. platform Enlarge this image
Application portfolio vendors typically offer multiple functional applications that might share some elements or an integration bus but are mostly standalone applications with their own unique process and data models. There often are redundancies between functional applications (for example, replicated master data), and the vendors have not rewritten their applications in a common shared architecture. Portfolio vendors have often, but not always, grown through acquisitions, yet have chosen not to re-architect and rationalize their solutions.
To move towards convergence, portfolio vendors typically try to address this challenge by layering some type of analytical or orchestration capability that spans their vertical silos. A common name for these is control tower.
Application platform vendors, on the other hand, start with a common architecture, and all applications are built on a shared technical foundation—from the data and process models all the way to the user experience (UX). These vendors are often on the forefront of modern microservices architectures, which arrange application capabilities as a collection of loosely coupled, messaging-enabled services that are fine-grained while the protocols are lightweight.
These architectures remove most, if not all, redundancies, and functional capabilities (such as picking, carrier selection, or order promising) are rendered once and shared across the platform. Technical instrumentation such as rules engines, monitoring, configuration, and extensibility is also often shared. These vendors typically build their platform solutions organically from the ground up.
Platform vendors address convergence via composability. Capabilities are broken down into reusable microservice components, which can then be assembled or “composed” to build the E2E process. For example, a simple order-to-cash process might be composed by associating an order service, an order promising service, a picking service and forward picking replenishment service, and a parcel carrier rate shopping and selection service.
With the emergence of composable, microservices-based applications and the rediscovered mission-criticality of supply chains, convergence is now becoming a reality. Today’s composable microservices architectures can support composite processes that bring together subprocesses and activities from specific domains. Users can then merge these into a larger, converged E2E process.
To get to supply chain convergence, supply chain organizations must work closely with their IT partners to adopt a cross-functional application strategy and platform that allows them to horizontally model, orchestrate, and synchronize E2E processes. Also, as they seek to buy new supply chain solutions, companies should increase their emphasis on an application technical architecture that supports composability. Until they have such an architecture in place, companies with heterogeneous supply chain application portfolios will likely have to focus on analytical solutions that can at least span multiple functional boundaries.
Note:
1. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Penguin Books, 2005.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Even as the e-commerce sector overall continues expanding toward a forecasted 41% of all retail sales by 2027, many small to medium e-commerce companies are struggling to find the investment funding they need to increase sales, according to a sector survey from online capital platform Stenn.
Global geopolitical instability and increasing inflation are causing e-commerce firms to face a liquidity crisis, which means companies may not be able to access the funds they need to grow, Stenn’s survey of 500 senior e-commerce leaders found. The research was conducted by Opinion Matters between August 29 and September 5.
Survey findings include:
61.8% of leaders who sought growth capital did so to invest in advanced technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to improve their businesses.
When asked which resources they wished they had more access to, 63.8% of respondents pointed to growth capital.
Women indicated a stronger need for business operations training (51.2%) and financial planning resources (48.8%) compared to men (30.8% and 15.4%).
40% of business owners are seeking external financial advice and mentorship at least once a week to help with business decisions.
Almost half (49.6%) of respondents are proactively forecasting their business activity 6-18 months ahead.
“As e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, driven by increasing online consumer demand and technological innovation, it’s important to remember that capital constraints and access to growth financing remain persistent hurdles for many e-commerce business leaders especially at small and medium-sized businesses,” Noel Hillman, Chief Commercial Officer at Stenn, said in a release. “In this competitive landscape, ensuring liquidity and optimizing supply chain processes are critical to sustaining growth and scaling operations.”
With six keynote and more than 100 educational sessions, CSCMP EDGE 2024 offered a wealth of content. Here are highlights from just some of the presentations.
A great American story
Author and entrepreneur Fawn Weaver closed out the first day of the conference by telling the little-known story of Nathan “Nearest” Green, who was born into slavery, freed after the Civil War, and went on to become the first master distiller for the Jack Daniel’s Whiskey brand. Through extensive research and interviews with descendants of the Daniel and Green families, Weaver discovered what she describes as a positive American story.
She told the story in her best-selling book, Love & Whiskey: The Remarkable True Story of Jack Daniel, His Master Distiller Nearest Green, and the Improbable Rise of Uncle Nearest. That story also inspired her to create Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey.
Weaver discussed the barriers she encountered in bringing the brand to life, her vision for where it’s headed, and her take on the supply chain—which she views as both a necessary cost of doing business and an opportunity.
“[It’s] an opportunity if you can move quickly,” she said, pointing to a recent project in which the company was able to fast-track a new Uncle Nearest product thanks to close collaboration with its supply chain partners.
A two-pronged business transformation
We may be living in a world full of technology, but strategy and focus remain the top priorities when it comes to managing a business and its supply chains. So says Roberto Isaias, executive vice president and chief supply chain officer for toy manufacturing and entertainment company Mattel.
Isaias emphasized the point during his keynote on day two of EDGE 2024. He described how Mattel transformed itself amid surging demand for Barbie-branded items following the success of the Barbie movie.
That transformation, according to Isaias, came on two fronts: commercially and logistically. Today, Mattel is steadily moving beyond the toy aisle with two films and 13 TV series in production as well as 14 films and 35 shows in development. And as for those supply chain gains? The company has saved millions, increased productivity, and improved profit margins—even amid cost increases and inflation.
A framework for chasing excellence
Most of the time when CEOs present at an industry conference, they like to talk about their companies’ success stories. Not J.B. Hunt’s Shelley Simpson. Speaking at EDGE, the trucking company’s president and CEO led with a story about a time that the company lost a major customer.
According to Simpson, the company had a customer of their dedicated contract business in 2001 that was consistently making late shipments with no lead time. “We were working like crazy to try to satisfy them, and lost their business,” Simpson said.
When the team at J.B. Hunt later met with the customer’s chief supply chain officer and related all they had been doing, the customer responded, “You never shared everything you were doing for us.”
Out of that experience, came J.B. Hunt’s Customer Value Delivery framework. The framework consists of five steps: 1) understand customer needs, 2) deliver expectations, 3) measure results, 4) communicate performance, and 5) anticipate new value.
Next year’s CSCMP EDGE conference on October 5–8 in National Harbor, Md., promises to have a similarly deep lineup of keynote presentations. Register early at www.cscmpedge.org.
2024 was expected to be a bounce-back year for the logistics industry. We had the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and the economy was proving to be more resilient than expected, defying those prognosticators who believed a recession was imminent.
While most of the economy managed to stabilize in 2024, the logistics industry continued to see disruption and changes in international trade. World events conspired to drive much of the narrative surrounding the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, a diminished reliance on China as a source for goods reduced some of the international trade flow from that manufacturing hub. Some of this trade diverted to other Asian nations, while nearshoring efforts brought some production back to North America, particularly Mexico.
Meanwhile trucking in the United States continued its 2-year recession, highlighted by weaker demand and excess capacity. Both contributed to a slow year, especially for truckload carriers that comprise about 90% of over-the-road shipments.
Labor issues were also front and center in 2024, as ports and rail companies dealt with threats of strikes, which resulted in new contracts and increased costs. Labor—and often a lack of it—continues to be an ongoing concern in the logistics industry.
In this annual issue, we bring a year-end perspective to these topics and more. Our issue is designed to complement CSCMP’s 35th Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released in June, and includes updates that were presented at the CSCMP EDGE conference held in October. In addition to this overview of the market, we have engaged top industry experts to dig into the status of key logistics sectors.
Hopefully as we move into 2025, logistics markets will build on an improving economy and strong consumer demand, while stabilizing those parts of the industry that could use some adrenaline, such as trucking. By this time next year, we hope to see a full recovery as the market fulfills its promise to deliver the needs of our very connected world.