While controlling costs still remains important to most sourcing and inbound logistics organizations, their top priority is now shifting toward ensuring uninterrupted supply, according to the third installment of the multiyear “Logistics 2030—Navigating a Disruptive Decade” study.
Produced by researchers at Auburn University’s Center for Supply Chain Innovation, the study uses surveys, focus groups, and research to investigate the challenges facing supply chain organizations during the 2020s. Each year, the study focuses on a different area of the supply chain, with this year’s edition addressing strategic sourcing and inbound logistics.
Sourcing’s shifting focus
On the sourcing end, rising demand and constrained supply has sourcing and procurement professionals reassessing their long-held focus on driving down costs. Not so long ago, companies pursued a policy of single sourcing in an attempt to reduce product variation, speed up the contracting process, and lower administrative costs. Now, 67% of survey respondents see increasing sourcing flexibility—or the ability to quickly and easily switch from one supplier to another—as one of the big areas of focus for the 2020s.
One focus-group participant said, “Maybe the model ahead is one where there’s an affordable level of contingency planning around local sources that results in security of supply and affirmation of supply.” Indeed, 80% of survey respondents anticipate that domestic sourcing will increase in the next 10 years.
Survey respondents also anticipate that companies will take a more robust approach to supplier relationship management. More than 70% of survey respondents say they expect that developing new supplier partnerships will be a key focus area for sourcing and procurement in 2030, up significantly from the 47% who say it is a priority today. Likewise, 50% of respondents say that enhancing supplier relationships is a key focus area for their sourcing and procurement departments today, but 72% expect this to be a priority by 2030. The tactics used for supplier relationship management will also shift. Today, less than 40% of respondent embed a company representative with suppliers. By 2030, that number should increase to more than 60%, according to survey respondents.
Inbound logistics under stress
Even after securing key components and supply, companies face numerous obstacles before they get those materials in hand. All aspects of the logistics network are currently besieged by capacity constraints, congestion, declining service, skyrocketing rates, and labor shortages. And “Logistics 2030” survey respondents don’t anticipate that these problems will dissipate any time soon. Instead, they expect that their top three concerns leading up to 2030 will remain workforce availability (81%), inbound capacity constraints (70%), and volatile freight rates (65%).
It’s perhaps not surprising then that 89% of survey respondents report that their company now consider inbound logistics to be an organizational priority. As a result, 77% of respondents expect to see an increase in corporate funding and resources to manage and monitor their transportation and logistics partners.
Respondents indicate that they are pursing a variety of strategies to deal with these logistics stressors, including consolidating shipments (83% of survey respondents), building long-term partnerships with transportation carriers (82%), and investing in warehouse automation (73%).
While it may be tempting to blame the Covid-19 pandemic for the shift in strategic focus found by the report, there are a lot more factors at play, says the lead author Rafay Ishfaq, associate professor of supply chain management at Auburn University. “I think there are a number of long-term trends, especially around global sourcing, capacity, and infrastructure that transcend recent supply chain dynamics,” says Ishfaq. “Certainly, Covid accelerated these trends and ruptured the underlying fissures; which makes this year’s study all the more interesting.”
This year’s research was based on more than 275 survey responses and six focus groups. Half of the participants work for companies with revenues over $1 billion. In addition to Auburn University, the research is supported by the industry associations Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals and NASSTRAC as well as Agile Business Media (which publishes DC Velocity and CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly), and the global consulting company KPMG. The report can be purchased on the CSCMP website for $25. It is free for members.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.