FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) for July stayed deep in negative territory at -8.07, showing a small improvement from its level of -12.0 in June, the Bloomington, Indiana-based firm said. While that accomplishment marks the index’s best reading since the fourth quarter of 2020, that growth is so slow that it is forecast to improve into low negative territory heading into 2022.
The SCI number represents the conditions of four variables in the U.S. full-load freight market, including freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. Combined into a single figure, the number represents good, optimistic conditions when positive and poor conditions when negative.
According to FTR, the July SCI rose a tick because of a tiny softening of freight volume alongside slightly less negative readings for freight rate and capacity utilization.
“The Shippers Conditions Index improved slightly in July, but that improvement came off a low base,” Todd Tranausky, FTR’s vice president of rail and intermodal, said in a release. “Conditions are still tough for shippers and will likely remain difficult for some time to come. Strong capacity utilization will support higher rates even as service suffers over the next several months.”
Compounding those hurdles on land, maritime shipping conditions are even worse, as port delays continue to worsen and carriers are charging more than ever to ship containers, according to supply chain visibility provider project44.
Those problems are caused by the one-two punch of a lack of capacity and pandemic conditions, and carriers are passing associated price increases on to shippers, setting the stage for holiday shortages and inflation, Chicago-based project44 said. “If current circumstances hold, we’re going to see many more empty shelves heading into the holiday shopping season and beyond,” Adam Compain, project44’s senior vice president for data insights, said in a release.
Under those conditions, ocean carriers’ schedule reliability continues to decline, with delays of up to 30 days on the worst-hit China-to-EU routes, and 21.94 days on the worst-hit China-to-U.S. West coast routes, the company said.
And there is no relief in sight: “There’s no quick fix here. Unless demand drops significantly after the holiday rush, this could be a multi-year problem,” Josh Brazil, vice president for data insights, said. “Shippers can no longer absorb the costs. Sustained astronomical shipping rates coupled with a delayed supply are already causing inflationary pressures in the broader economy.”
Buoyed by a return to consistent decreases in fuel prices, business conditions in the trucking sector improved slightly in August but remain negative overall, according to a measure from transportation analysis group FTR.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index improved in August to -1.39 from the reading of -5.59 in July. The Bloomington, Indiana-based firm forecasts that its TCI readings will remain mostly negative-to-neutral through the beginning of 2025.
“Trucking is en route to more favorable conditions next year, but the road remains bumpy as both freight volume and capacity utilization are still soft, keeping rates weak. Our forecasts continue to show the truck freight market starting to favor carriers modestly before the second quarter of next year,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, and a negative score shows the opposite.
“ExxonMobil is uniquely placed to understand the biggest opportunities in improving energy supply chains, from more accurate sales and operations planning, increased agility in field operations, effective management of enormous transportation networks and adapting quickly to complex regulatory environments,” John Sicard, Kinaxis CEO, said in a release.
Specifically, Kinaxis and ExxonMobil said they will focus on a supply and demand planning solution for the complicated fuel commodities market which has no industry-wide standard and which relies heavily on spreadsheets and other manual methods. The solution will enable integrated refinery-to-customer planning with timely data for the most accurate supply/demand planning, balancing and signaling.
The benefits of that approach could include automated data visibility, improved inventory management and terminal replenishment, and enhanced supply scenario planning that are expected to enable arbitrage opportunities and decrease supply costs.
And in the chemicals and lubricants space, the companies are developing an advanced planning solution that provides manufacturing and logistics constraints management coupled with scenario modeling and evaluation.
“Last year, we brought together all ExxonMobil supply chain activities and expertise into one centralized organization, creating one of the largest supply chain operations in the world, and through this identified critical solution gaps to enable our businesses to capture additional value,” said Staale Gjervik, supply chain president, ExxonMobil Global Services Company. “Collaborating with Kinaxis, a leading supply chain technology provider, is instrumental in providing solutions for a large and complex business like ours.”
However, that trend is counterbalanced by economic uncertainty driven by geopolitics, which is prompting many companies to diversity their supply chains, Dun & Bradstreet said in its “Q4 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights” report, which was based on research conducted during the third quarter.
“While overall global business optimism has increased and inflation has abated, it’s important to recognize that geopolitics contribute to economic uncertainty,” Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, said in a release. “Industry-specific regulatory risks and more stringent data requirements have emerged as the top concerns among a third of respondents. To mitigate these risks, businesses are considering diversifying their supply chains and markets to manage regulatory risk.”
According to the report, nearly four in five businesses are expressing increased optimism in domestic and export orders, capital expenditures, and financial risk due to a combination of easing financial pressures, shifts in monetary policies, robust regulatory frameworks, and higher participation in sustainability initiatives.
U.S. businesses recorded a nearly 9% rise in optimism, aided by falling inflation and expectations of further rate cuts. Similarly, business optimism in the U.K. and Spain showed notable recoveries as their respective central banks initiated monetary easing, rising by 13% and 9%, respectively. Emerging economies, such as Argentina and India, saw jumps in optimism levels due to declining inflation and increased domestic demand respectively.
"Businesses are increasingly confident as borrowing costs decline, boosting optimism for higher sales, stronger exports, and reduced financial risks," Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, said. "This confidence is driving capital investments, with easing supply chain pressures supporting growth in the year's final quarter."
The firms’ “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index” tracks demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses.
The rise in underutilized vendor capacity was driven by a deterioration in global demand. Factory purchasing activity was at its weakest in the year-to-date, with procurement trends in all major continents worsening in September and signaling gloomier prospects for economies heading into Q4, the report said.
According to the report, the slowing economy was seen across the major regions:
North America factory purchasing activity deteriorates more quickly in September, with demand at its weakest year-to-date, signaling a quickly slowing U.S. economy
Factory procurement activity in China fell for a third straight month, and devastation from Typhoon Yagi hit vendors feeding Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam
Europe's industrial recession deepens, leading to an even larger increase in supplier spare capacity
"September is the fourth straight month of declining demand and the third month running that the world's supply chains have spare capacity, as manufacturing becomes an increasing drag on the major economies," Jagadish Turimella, president of GEP, said in a release. "With the potential of a widening war in the Middle East impacting oil, and the possibility of more tariffs and trade barriers in the new year, manufacturers should prioritize agility and resilience in their procurement and supply chains."
Pharmaceutical groups are breathing a sigh of relief today after federal regulators granted many of them more time to come into compliance with strict track and trace rules required by the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA).
The regulation was initially scheduled to be required by 2023, but that has been delayed due to the steep logistics and IT challenges of managing the reams of data that must be generated, stored, and retrieved. The most recent target update was November 27, but industry experts say many businesses would probably have missed that date, too.
Facing that reality, the FDA yesterday again delayed that deadline until next year, setting new deadlines for various trading partners: Manufacturers and Repackagers have until May 27, 2025; Wholesale Distributors have until August 27, 2025; and Dispensers with 26 or more full-time employees have until November 27, 2025.
Pharmaceutical businesses quickly cheered the move. “HDA and our pharmaceutical distributor members applaud the FDA’s decision to grant an exemption for the DSCSA’s enhanced drug distribution security (EDDS) requirements for eligible trading partners,” said Chester “Chip” Davis, Jr., president and CEO of the Healthcare Distribution Alliance (HDA), which is an industry group representing primary pharmaceutical distributors, who connect the nation’s pharmaceutical manufacturers with pharmacies, hospitals, long-term care facilities, and clinics.
“While many in the supply chain have made significant progress throughout the stabilization period, some are still struggling to establish data connections. Given the interdependency of the pharmaceutical supply chain, FDA’s phased-in approach will allow supply chain partners to better align their data exchange processes to ultimately achieve full implementation and also acknowledges the progress made thus far,” Davis said.
“As we continue to make progress toward full DSCSA implementation, HDA and our distributor members will remain engaged with our public- and private-sector partners to share information and education, as we move toward our shared goal: helping patients and providers safely access the medicines they need.”