Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
As much as U.S. west coast container ports are struggling with imports, congestion is even worse in China and could lead to further product shortages and delays for both businesses and consumers in a “global whiplash effect,” according to an analysis by supply chain visibility provider project44.
The data shows that container imports are already clogged off California, with the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach setting a record in September of 73 cargo ships lying at anchor, awaiting their turn to unload freight.
That backlog is already making it difficult for businesses to deal with the annual holiday sales surge and global post-Covid recovery. But the challenge is even greater when they factor in freight flows in Asia. As of October 7, there were some 386 ships either anchored or moored off the busy Chinese ports of Shanghai and Ningbo, of which 228 were cargo ships and 45 were container vessels, Chicago-based project44 said.
Those traffic jams affect supply and demand halfway around the world because the freight passing through Chinese ports accounts for 40% of global container trade; Shanghai is the world’s busiest container port and Ningbo is just behind in third place.
According to project44, basic reasons for the berthing delays include lingering backlogs from the Covid-19 closure of Ningbo port, the impact of Typhoon Chanthu, and the current Golden Week between October 1 to 7. But shippers are especially concerned because Chinese ports are not making significant headway in dealing with the excess cargo, the firm said.
Those delays can be measured by container rollover rates, which are defined as the percentage of containers that miss their scheduled sailings. Project44 data show that those rates have stayed high, with September numbers reaching 36% at Ningbo, 41% at Hong Kong, and 37% at Shanghai.
Looking into the future, the report found that freight could soon slow down even more, triggering a potential “global whiplash effect,” according to project44’s VP of Supply Chain Insights, Josh Brazil. He pointed to a power-shortage crisis caused by a national electricity ration imposed by Beijing. Facing mandatory power limits and shortages of coal reserves, manufacturers may be forced to scale back just as demand heats up.
“We can expect these growing backlogs across Chinese manufacturers and ports to exacerbate imbalances at U.S. and European ports,” Brazil said in a release. “As it becomes increasingly hard to get inventory from factory floors to end-consumers, competition for shipping capacity will heat up. At this point, pretty much everybody is feeling the pain. The challenge is less about achieving full inventory -- that ship has sailed -- and more about adapting to, and planning for, future disruption.”
In fact, retailers are already seeing three consequences of these forces: lower availability, less speed, and higher costs, according to comments from Simon Geale, executive vice president at Proxima, a supply chain and procurement consulting firm. But although those impacts are hitting the whole market, they have different impacts on various vendors.
“Because of problems with capacity, there are historic highs in container prices and lows in service levels,” Geale said. “You see some companies like Peloton that have been using planes to fly in equipment. They are a low volume, high margin, premium product and because the product is more expensive, they can absorb the cost and take that hit. It is the opposite when you look at retailers with high volume and low margin such as kids’ toys, textiles, or low-end electronics. Most of these are coming out of congested ports and cannot afford that optionality to switch transportation methods.”
Despite a wide awareness of those problems, solutions may be long in coming, he said. “We are pushing more and more into a system that isn’t working. Many are focusing on when things will get better and the answer is no time soon. Supply chain issues in terms of logistics may clear up by next year and raw materials problems in chips could push some of those supply chains into 2023,” Geale said.
Ron Marotta of Yusen Logistics listens to Rick DiMaio of Ace Hardware talk about the steps Ace is taking to keep its store stocked after Hurricane Helene and during the East and Gulf Coast Port Strike.
The East and Gulf Coast port strike was the top discussion point during a panel discussion of shippers and logistics providers at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference this morning. The session, which was supposed to be focused on providing an update to CSCMP’s “2024 State of Logistics Report,” quickly shifted to addressing the effect that the strike by nearly 50,000 dockworker at 36 ports in the Eastern half of the U.S. could have on supply chains.
“The seriousness of this action cannot to be taken lightly,” said Ron Marotta, vice president of the freight forwarder and supply chain service provider Yusen Logistics (America). “It has not happened since 1977. Our lives depend on sustaining a smooth global supply chain.”
Marotta warned that for every day that the ports were not open, it would take four to five days to recover from the impact. One added concern is how the port closures would affect recovery efforts for Hurricane Helene. “There’s a huge amount of item that would normally be replenished by importers and retailers,” Marotta said.
Rick DiMaio, executive vice president and chief supply chain officer, for Ace Hardware Corp., commented that the hardware retail cooperative was doing okay for now keeping stores in stock, although he did expect the company would be “chasing generators for awhile.” “But in this recovery phase [from the hurricane], we certainly don’t need a strike right now,” he said.
The port closure will also have a knock-on effect on other transportation modes. For example, Andy Moses, senior vice president of sales and solutions for logistics services provider Penske Logistics, expects to see some companies turn to air freight as a result of the strike. This will, in turn, cause air freight capacity to tighten up and rates to rise. Furthermore, the longer the ports are closed, the more likely inflation is to rise again, according to Moses.
Nor will the effects of the strike stop at the U.S. border, according to Marotta. Many Caribbean Island nations depend on food import from the U.S. that move through East Coast ports. Additionally, some medical supplies typically are exported through the ports to Europe.
On a positive note, however, many companies took actions earlier in the year to prepare themselves for a potential strike. Ammie McAsey, senior vice president of customer distribution experience for the pharmaceutical distributor McKesson, said the pharmaceutical industry has brought in enough extra inventory that there will not be a short-term impact on the U.S. health care system due to the strike.
Government intervention?
Marotta hopes that the U.S. government takes the step of invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to stop the strike and send the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the port management group, United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) back to the negotiation table. In 2002, for example, President George W. Bush used the Taft-Hartley Act to end an 11-day lockout of union workers at West Coast ports. President Joe Biden, however, told reporters on Sunday that he would not do this.
“I hope that cooler heads prevail and that the executive branch realizes that it’s not just a labor issue, it’s also a humanitarian issue,” Marotta said.
Confronted with the closed ports, most companies can either route their imports to standard East Coast destinations and wait for the strike to clear, or else re-route those containers to West Coast sites, incurring a three week delay for extra sailing time plus another week required to truck those goods back east, Ron said in an interview at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
However, Uber Freight says its latest platform updates offer a series of mitigation options, including alternative routings, pre-booked allocation and volume during peak season, and providing daily visibility reports on shipments impacted by routings via U.S. east and gulf coast ports. And Ron said the company can also leverage its pool of some 2.3 million truck drivers who have downloaded its smartphone app, targeting them with freight hauling opportunities in the affected regions by pricing those loads “appropriately” through its surge-pricing model.
“If this [strike] continues a month, we will see severe disruptions,” Ron said. “So we can offer them alternatives. We say, if one door is closed, we can open another door? But even with that, there are no magic solutions.”
Turning around a failing warehouse operation demands a similar methodology to how emergency room doctors triage troubled patients at the hospital, a speaker said today in a session at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
There are many reasons that a warehouse might start to miss its targets, such as a sudden volume increase or a new IT system implementation gone wrong, said Adri McCaskill, general manager for iPlan’s Warehouse Management business unit. But whatever the cause, the basic rescue strategy is the same: “Just like medicine, you do triage,” she said. “The most life-threatening problem we try to solve first. And only then, once we’ve stopped the bleeding, we can move on.”
In McCaskill’s comparison, just as a doctor might have to break some ribs through energetic CPR to get a patient’s heart beating again, a failing warehouse might need to recover by “breaking some ribs” in a business sense, such as making management changes or stock write-downs.
Once the business has made some stopgap solutions to “stop the bleeding,” it can proceed to a disciplined recovery, she said. And to reach their final goal, managers can use the classic tools of people, process, and technology to improve what she called the three most important key performance indicators (KPIs): on time in full (OTIF), inventory accuracy, and staff turnover.
CSCMP EDGE attendees gathered Tuesday afternoon for an update and outlook on the truckload (TL) market, which is on the upswing following the longest down cycle in recorded history. Kevin Adamik of RXO (formerly Coyote Logistics), offered an overview of truckload market cycles, highlighting major trends from the recent freight recession and providing an update on where the TL cycle is now.
EDGE 2024, sponsored by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), is taking place this week in Nashville.
Citing data from the Coyote Curve index (which measures year-over-year changes in spot market rates) and other sources, Adamik outlined the dynamics of the TL market. He explained that the last cycle—which lasted from about 2019 to 2024—was longer than the typical three to four-year market cycle, marked by volatile conditions spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic. That cycle is behind us now, he said, adding that the market has reached equilibrium and is headed toward an inflationary environment.
Adamik also told attendees that he expects the new TL cycle to be marked by far less volatility, with a return to more typical conditions. And he offered a slate of supply and demand trends to note as the industry moves into the new cycle.
Supply trends include:
Carrier operating authorities are declining;
Employment in the trucking industry is declining;
Private fleets have expanded, but the expansion has stopped;
Truckload orders are falling.
Demand trends include:
Consumer spending is stable, but is still more service-centric and less goods-intensive;
After a steep decline, imports are on the rise;
Freight volumes have been sluggish but are showing signs of life.
CSCMP EDGE runs through Wednesday, October 2, at Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Hotel & Resort.
The relationship between shippers and third-party logistics services providers (3PLs) is at the core of successful supply chain management—so getting that relationship right is vital. A panel of industry experts from both sides of the aisle weighed in on what it takes to create strong 3PL/shipper partnerships on day two of the CSCMP EDGE conference, being held this week in Nashville.
Trust, empathy, and transparency ranked high on the list of key elements required for success in all aspects of the partnership, but there are some specifics for each step of the journey. The panel recommended a handful of actions that should take place early on, including:
Establish relationships.
For 3PLs, understand and get to the heart of the shipper’s data.
Also for 3PLs: Understand the shipper’s reason for outsourcing to a 3PL, along with the shipper’s ultimate goals.
Understand company cultures and be sure they align.
Nurture long-term relationships with good communication.
For shippers, be transparent so that the 3PL fully understands your business.
And there are also some “non-negotiables” when it comes to managing the relationship:
3PLs must demonstrate their commitment to engaging with the shipper’s personnel.
3PLs must also demonstrate their commitment to process discipline, continuous improvement, and innovation.
Shippers should ensure that they understand the 3PL’s demonstrated implementation capabilities—ask to visit established clients.
Trust—which takes longer to establish than both sides may expect.
EDGE 2024 is sponsored by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and runs through Wednesday, October 2, at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville.