Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Rafay Ishfaq of Auburn University on the threats of a labor shortage
Labor was tight for supply chain and logistics jobs before the pandemic; now it’s become even more constrained. What can you do to attract and retain good employees?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Rafay Ishfaq is the W. Allen Reed Associate Professor in the Department of Supply Chain Management at Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business. He is also the department’s graduate programs coordinator. Dr. Ishfaq's research is focused on issues related to the strategic planning of logistics operations and the efficient use of resources within supply chain networks.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
This podcast is sponsored by Covariant. By now, you're familiar with the challenges of the labor shortage, but I'm excited to share that when it comes to help for picking, sorting, and packing, Covariant has the solution. Covariant's AI robotics solutions ensure your supply chain runs on time and reliably. Within weeks of deployment, the software can power robots to see, learn, and operate at levels comparable with traditional labor, but with significant cost savings. Designed by machine-learning pioneers. Covariant is putting AI robotics into the real world across various industries, including fashion, health and beauty, industrial supply, pharmaceutical, grocery, parcel, and general merchandise. To learn more, check them out at Covariant.ai or on LinkedIn.
Today, we focus on the threat of a labor shortage. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly's executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:41
Thank you for joining us today for the latest episode of top 10 threats to supply chains. Our subject today are the risks and challenges surrounding the current labor shortages. Speaking to us today about this subject is Professor Rafay Ishfaq from the University of—Auburn University. He is the W. Allen Reed associate professor for the Department of Supply Chain Management. Rafay is also engaged in a lot of different research reports and studies that are associated with this topic, such as the State of Retail Supply Chain for the Retail Industry Logistics Association, and the Logistics 2030 study for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. In fact, we are speaking to Rafay today from the CSCMP Edge conference. Rafay, thanks for joining us.
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:34
Thank you, Susan, for inviting me for this brief talk.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:37
Thank you. So, there's been a lot of talk across all industries about the current labor shortage, but the problem feels particularly acute for the supply chain. Can you talk about some of the positions and job types that have been particularly hard for companies to fill, and the challenges they are facing in those areas?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:58
I think we find ourselves in a very unique and unprecedented situation where the demand for labor and management talent has surpassed the capacity or the supply of labor in management skills. If you think about the current situation, we have got a surge in demand across retail. We see a lot of logistics activities on the inbound side, where companies are looking for drivers, they're looking for warehousing staff to be able to stock up the inventory, a nd all the way up to the sourcing and global movement of goods across the oceans. There is just so much need for logistics activities that the available pool of labor and management skills are just not there. Think about all the different options that [the] labor force would have right now. There are many companies who are offering more than—higher-than-usual salaries. I can think of Amazon and Target as some of those companies that will pay you a premium on being available to work for them. Even in the gig market, if you're willing to do a, an Uber or Lyft service or other crowd-sourced options, you can not only make good money, but also have the flexibility in the work schedule that a lot of us are looking for in these tiring times of family-oriented struggles and just making things work. So, when there are limited number of people available and there's a[n] unprecedented surge in demand, these mismatches are bound to happen. So, to answer your question, I think we are seeing issues with finding enough labor and management people to fill the roles that are available all across the board.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:13
And it's seems that it's not just a matter of recruiting the right talent; it is retaining them as well. How much of a factor is that in the labor shortage that we are seeing currently?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 05:25
That's a great question, and if you think about this for a second, both of these issues, recruiting and retention, kind of goes hand in hand. I have met a number of people here at the conference who would share their experience of having worked at a company for just a little bit of time, a little over a year, and already receiving job offers with better salaries and signup bonuses, just to get those people to cross over the fence and come and work for the other company. I think part of the ways this, the retention and recruiting challenges are connected is the way our industry has shifted. If you think about the impact of e-commerce on warehousing and distribution processes, where we have moved away from just moving pallet loads on a forklift truck. We are now asking people to move boxes and pick, pack, and ship orders that are in smaller quantity, just increase the labor work. As well as, the management roles are becoming more complicated. I sometimes refer to this as a little bit of a skill deficit. The complexity of managing today's supply chains and all the technologies that are incorporated in handling this, the new modern supply chain, has left [the industry] with fewer people who are trained, who are skilled to be able to handle this. And once you get workers trained for warehousing operations, or get them attracted to the transportation and driving roles, there is just so much out there that they are, they will easily move to another company, with the premiums being offered.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:21
Right, right. So what are some innovative ways that companies can respond to these challenges?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 07:30
We have to think about the recruitment and the retention of labor force and the management roles in slightly different ways. When you talk about the labor force, there has to be a little bit of flexibility, maybe higher wages. In the most recent study that we have just concluded, these are the things that we are hearing from a lot of businesses. Just the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market means that companies have to pay a little bit of [a] premium to get people to work, to actually come work for the business as a[n] employer of choice. On the management side, there is a strong need for additional training programs, especially management—leadership management programs, that would attract high quality and talented managers to come and work for your company. So, there are ways that companies are handling it, they're tackling it. And that's the need of the time.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:34
Excellent. Do you have any sense of how successful these strategies are? Are the companies that are paying more having less of a challenge recruiting people, or is it still hard?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 08:46
There are recent labor statistics that indicate about 60% of the lost jobs at the start of the pandemic have been recovered. The remaining 40% is where the surge in demand in unavailability of trained and skilled workforce remains. It is not surprising that 60% of middle and top management job opportunities remain unfulfilled. National Association of Manufacturing ha[s] identified this shortage to actually lead up to about $1 trillion worth of lost business by 2030. So, this is a work in progress. Companies are struggling, but they are making the effort to incorporate these training programs, flexible work options, and leadership-development programs to attract and train future leaders.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly09:50
Are there any sort of long-term strategies or solutions companies need to keep in mind. Is this the time you really need to be looking at automation, especially for the labor roles, that is?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 10:01
Yes, and I think part of that automation value proposition has shifted in favor of doing it that way—just the sheer rise in e-commerce and omnichannel, and we are moving product flows in smaller quantities that require more labor. So, from a volume standpoint, automation in the warehouses is making a lot of sense, as far—as well as adding technology from machine learning and artificial intelligence to be able to automate day-to-day workflow so that we can enable managers to actually spend more of their time on strategic initiatives and improving their their supply chains in general.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly10:47
Well, great, thank you so much, Rafay, for joining us today and I'd like to thank our audience for tuning in on some important topics that we are all struggling with. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast so that you can keep up to date with the episodes as they release. Thank you again.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:05
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."