Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Rafay Ishfaq of Auburn University on the threats of a labor shortage
Labor was tight for supply chain and logistics jobs before the pandemic; now it’s become even more constrained. What can you do to attract and retain good employees?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Rafay Ishfaq is the W. Allen Reed Associate Professor in the Department of Supply Chain Management at Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business. He is also the department’s graduate programs coordinator. Dr. Ishfaq's research is focused on issues related to the strategic planning of logistics operations and the efficient use of resources within supply chain networks.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
This podcast is sponsored by Covariant. By now, you're familiar with the challenges of the labor shortage, but I'm excited to share that when it comes to help for picking, sorting, and packing, Covariant has the solution. Covariant's AI robotics solutions ensure your supply chain runs on time and reliably. Within weeks of deployment, the software can power robots to see, learn, and operate at levels comparable with traditional labor, but with significant cost savings. Designed by machine-learning pioneers. Covariant is putting AI robotics into the real world across various industries, including fashion, health and beauty, industrial supply, pharmaceutical, grocery, parcel, and general merchandise. To learn more, check them out at Covariant.ai or on LinkedIn.
Today, we focus on the threat of a labor shortage. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly's executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:41
Thank you for joining us today for the latest episode of top 10 threats to supply chains. Our subject today are the risks and challenges surrounding the current labor shortages. Speaking to us today about this subject is Professor Rafay Ishfaq from the University of—Auburn University. He is the W. Allen Reed associate professor for the Department of Supply Chain Management. Rafay is also engaged in a lot of different research reports and studies that are associated with this topic, such as the State of Retail Supply Chain for the Retail Industry Logistics Association, and the Logistics 2030 study for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. In fact, we are speaking to Rafay today from the CSCMP Edge conference. Rafay, thanks for joining us.
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:34
Thank you, Susan, for inviting me for this brief talk.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:37
Thank you. So, there's been a lot of talk across all industries about the current labor shortage, but the problem feels particularly acute for the supply chain. Can you talk about some of the positions and job types that have been particularly hard for companies to fill, and the challenges they are facing in those areas?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:58
I think we find ourselves in a very unique and unprecedented situation where the demand for labor and management talent has surpassed the capacity or the supply of labor in management skills. If you think about the current situation, we have got a surge in demand across retail. We see a lot of logistics activities on the inbound side, where companies are looking for drivers, they're looking for warehousing staff to be able to stock up the inventory, a nd all the way up to the sourcing and global movement of goods across the oceans. There is just so much need for logistics activities that the available pool of labor and management skills are just not there. Think about all the different options that [the] labor force would have right now. There are many companies who are offering more than—higher-than-usual salaries. I can think of Amazon and Target as some of those companies that will pay you a premium on being available to work for them. Even in the gig market, if you're willing to do a, an Uber or Lyft service or other crowd-sourced options, you can not only make good money, but also have the flexibility in the work schedule that a lot of us are looking for in these tiring times of family-oriented struggles and just making things work. So, when there are limited number of people available and there's a[n] unprecedented surge in demand, these mismatches are bound to happen. So, to answer your question, I think we are seeing issues with finding enough labor and management people to fill the roles that are available all across the board.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:13
And it's seems that it's not just a matter of recruiting the right talent; it is retaining them as well. How much of a factor is that in the labor shortage that we are seeing currently?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 05:25
That's a great question, and if you think about this for a second, both of these issues, recruiting and retention, kind of goes hand in hand. I have met a number of people here at the conference who would share their experience of having worked at a company for just a little bit of time, a little over a year, and already receiving job offers with better salaries and signup bonuses, just to get those people to cross over the fence and come and work for the other company. I think part of the ways this, the retention and recruiting challenges are connected is the way our industry has shifted. If you think about the impact of e-commerce on warehousing and distribution processes, where we have moved away from just moving pallet loads on a forklift truck. We are now asking people to move boxes and pick, pack, and ship orders that are in smaller quantity, just increase the labor work. As well as, the management roles are becoming more complicated. I sometimes refer to this as a little bit of a skill deficit. The complexity of managing today's supply chains and all the technologies that are incorporated in handling this, the new modern supply chain, has left [the industry] with fewer people who are trained, who are skilled to be able to handle this. And once you get workers trained for warehousing operations, or get them attracted to the transportation and driving roles, there is just so much out there that they are, they will easily move to another company, with the premiums being offered.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:21
Right, right. So what are some innovative ways that companies can respond to these challenges?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 07:30
We have to think about the recruitment and the retention of labor force and the management roles in slightly different ways. When you talk about the labor force, there has to be a little bit of flexibility, maybe higher wages. In the most recent study that we have just concluded, these are the things that we are hearing from a lot of businesses. Just the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market means that companies have to pay a little bit of [a] premium to get people to work, to actually come work for the business as a[n] employer of choice. On the management side, there is a strong need for additional training programs, especially management—leadership management programs, that would attract high quality and talented managers to come and work for your company. So, there are ways that companies are handling it, they're tackling it. And that's the need of the time.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:34
Excellent. Do you have any sense of how successful these strategies are? Are the companies that are paying more having less of a challenge recruiting people, or is it still hard?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 08:46
There are recent labor statistics that indicate about 60% of the lost jobs at the start of the pandemic have been recovered. The remaining 40% is where the surge in demand in unavailability of trained and skilled workforce remains. It is not surprising that 60% of middle and top management job opportunities remain unfulfilled. National Association of Manufacturing ha[s] identified this shortage to actually lead up to about $1 trillion worth of lost business by 2030. So, this is a work in progress. Companies are struggling, but they are making the effort to incorporate these training programs, flexible work options, and leadership-development programs to attract and train future leaders.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly09:50
Are there any sort of long-term strategies or solutions companies need to keep in mind. Is this the time you really need to be looking at automation, especially for the labor roles, that is?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 10:01
Yes, and I think part of that automation value proposition has shifted in favor of doing it that way—just the sheer rise in e-commerce and omnichannel, and we are moving product flows in smaller quantities that require more labor. So, from a volume standpoint, automation in the warehouses is making a lot of sense, as far—as well as adding technology from machine learning and artificial intelligence to be able to automate day-to-day workflow so that we can enable managers to actually spend more of their time on strategic initiatives and improving their their supply chains in general.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly10:47
Well, great, thank you so much, Rafay, for joining us today and I'd like to thank our audience for tuning in on some important topics that we are all struggling with. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast so that you can keep up to date with the episodes as they release. Thank you again.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:05
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
ReposiTrak, a global food traceability network operator, will partner with Upshop, a provider of store operations technology for food retailers, to create an end-to-end grocery traceability solution that reaches from the supply chain to the retail store, the firms said today.
The partnership creates a data connection between suppliers and the retail store. It works by integrating Salt Lake City-based ReposiTrak’s network of thousands of suppliers and their traceability shipment data with Austin, Texas-based Upshop’s network of more than 450 retailers and their retail stores.
That accomplishment is important because it will allow food sector trading partners to meet the U.S. FDA’s Food Safety Modernization Act Section 204d (FSMA 204) requirements that they must create and store complete traceability records for certain foods.
And according to ReposiTrak and Upshop, the traceability solution may also unlock potential business benefits. It could do that by creating margin and growth opportunities in stores by connecting supply chain data with store data, thus allowing users to optimize inventory, labor, and customer experience management automation.
"Traceability requires data from the supply chain and – importantly – confirmation at the retail store that the proper and accurate lot code data from each shipment has been captured when the product is received. The missing piece for us has been the supply chain data. ReposiTrak is the leader in capturing and managing supply chain data, starting at the suppliers. Together, we can deliver a single, comprehensive traceability solution," Mark Hawthorne, chief innovation and strategy officer at Upshop, said in a release.
"Once the data is flowing the benefits are compounding. Traceability data can be used to improve food safety, reduce invoice discrepancies, and identify ways to reduce waste and improve efficiencies throughout the store,” Hawthorne said.
Under FSMA 204, retailers are required by law to track Key Data Elements (KDEs) to the store-level for every shipment containing high-risk food items from the Food Traceability List (FTL). ReposiTrak and Upshop say that major industry retailers have made public commitments to traceability, announcing programs that require more traceability data for all food product on a faster timeline. The efforts of those retailers have activated the industry, motivating others to institute traceability programs now, ahead of the FDA’s enforcement deadline of January 20, 2026.
Inclusive procurement practices can fuel economic growth and create jobs worldwide through increased partnerships with small and diverse suppliers, according to a study from the Illinois firm Supplier.io.
The firm’s “2024 Supplier Diversity Economic Impact Report” found that $168 billion spent directly with those suppliers generated a total economic impact of $303 billion. That analysis can help supplier diversity managers and chief procurement officers implement programs that grow diversity spend, improve supply chain competitiveness, and increase brand value, the firm said.
The companies featured in Supplier.io’s report collectively supported more than 710,000 direct jobs and contributed $60 billion in direct wages through their investments in small and diverse suppliers. According to the analysis, those purchases created a ripple effect, supporting over 1.4 million jobs and driving $105 billion in total income when factoring in direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts.
“At Supplier.io, we believe that empowering businesses with advanced supplier intelligence not only enhances their operational resilience but also significantly mitigates risks,” Aylin Basom, CEO of Supplier.io, said in a release. “Our platform provides critical insights that drive efficiency and innovation, enabling companies to find and invest in small and diverse suppliers. This approach helps build stronger, more reliable supply chains.”
Logistics industry growth slowed in December due to a seasonal wind-down of inventory and following one of the busiest holiday shopping seasons on record, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The monthly LMI was 57.3 in December, down more than a percentage point from November’s reading of 58.4. Despite the slowdown, economic activity across the industry continued to expand, as an LMI reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The LMI researchers said the monthly conditions were largely due to seasonal drawdowns in inventory levels—and the associated costs of holding them—at the retail level. The LMI’s Inventory Levels index registered 50, falling from 56.1 in November. That reduction also affected warehousing capacity, which slowed but remained in expansion mode: The LMI’s warehousing capacity index fell 7 points to a reading of 61.6.
December’s results reflect a continued trend toward more typical industry growth patterns following recent years of volatility—and they point to a successful peak holiday season as well.
“Retailers were clearly correct in their bet to stock [up] on goods ahead of the holiday season,” the LMI researchers wrote in their monthly report. “Holiday sales from November until Christmas Eve were up 3.8% year-over-year according to Mastercard. This was largely driven by a 6.7% increase in e-commerce sales, although in-person spending was up 2.9% as well.”
And those results came during a compressed peak shopping cycle.
“The increase in spending came despite the shorter holiday season due to the late Thanksgiving,” the researchers also wrote, citing National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that U.S. shoppers spent just short of a trillion dollars in November and December, making it the busiest holiday season of all time.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
As U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face an uncertain business landscape in 2025, a substantial majority (67%) expect positive growth in the new year compared to 2024, according to a survey from DHL.
However, the survey also showed that businesses could face a rocky road to reach that goal, as they navigate a complex environment of regulatory/policy shifts and global market volatility. Both those issues were cited as top challenges by 36% of respondents, followed by staffing/talent retention (11%) and digital threats and cyber attacks (2%).
Against that backdrop, SMEs said that the biggest opportunity for growth in 2025 lies in expanding into new markets (40%), followed by economic improvements (31%) and implementing new technologies (14%).
As the U.S. prepares for a broad shift in political leadership in Washington after a contentious election, the SMEs in DHL’s survey were likely split evenly on their opinion about the impact of regulatory and policy changes. A plurality of 40% were on the fence (uncertain, still evaluating), followed by 24% who believe regulatory changes could negatively impact growth, 20% who see these changes as having a positive impact, and 16% predicting no impact on growth at all.
That uncertainty also triggered a split when respondents were asked how they planned to adjust their strategy in 2025 in response to changes in the policy or regulatory landscape. The largest portion (38%) of SMEs said they remained uncertain or still evaluating, followed by 30% who will make minor adjustments, 19% will maintain their current approach, and 13% who were willing to significantly adjust their approach.
Specifically, the two sides remain at odds over provisions related to the deployment of semi-automated technologies like rail-mounted gantry cranes, according to an analysis by the Kansas-based 3PL Noatum Logistics. The ILA has strongly opposed further automation, arguing it threatens dockworker protections, while the USMX contends that automation enhances productivity and can create long-term opportunities for labor.
In fact, U.S. importers are already taking action to prevent the impact of such a strike, “pulling forward” their container shipments by rushing imports to earlier dates on the calendar, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. That strategy can help companies to build enough safety stock to dampen the damage of events like the strike and like the steep tariffs being threatened by the incoming Trump administration.
Likewise, some ocean carriers have already instituted January surcharges in pre-emption of possible labor action, which could support inbound ocean rates if a strike occurs, according to freight market analysts with TD Cowen. In the meantime, the outcome of the new negotiations are seen with “significant uncertainty,” due to the contentious history of the discussion and to the timing of the talks that overlap with a transition between two White House regimes, analysts said.