Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Rafay Ishfaq of Auburn University on the threats of a labor shortage
Labor was tight for supply chain and logistics jobs before the pandemic; now it’s become even more constrained. What can you do to attract and retain good employees?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Rafay Ishfaq is the W. Allen Reed Associate Professor in the Department of Supply Chain Management at Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business. He is also the department’s graduate programs coordinator. Dr. Ishfaq's research is focused on issues related to the strategic planning of logistics operations and the efficient use of resources within supply chain networks.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
This podcast is sponsored by Covariant. By now, you're familiar with the challenges of the labor shortage, but I'm excited to share that when it comes to help for picking, sorting, and packing, Covariant has the solution. Covariant's AI robotics solutions ensure your supply chain runs on time and reliably. Within weeks of deployment, the software can power robots to see, learn, and operate at levels comparable with traditional labor, but with significant cost savings. Designed by machine-learning pioneers. Covariant is putting AI robotics into the real world across various industries, including fashion, health and beauty, industrial supply, pharmaceutical, grocery, parcel, and general merchandise. To learn more, check them out at Covariant.ai or on LinkedIn.
Today, we focus on the threat of a labor shortage. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly's executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:41
Thank you for joining us today for the latest episode of top 10 threats to supply chains. Our subject today are the risks and challenges surrounding the current labor shortages. Speaking to us today about this subject is Professor Rafay Ishfaq from the University of—Auburn University. He is the W. Allen Reed associate professor for the Department of Supply Chain Management. Rafay is also engaged in a lot of different research reports and studies that are associated with this topic, such as the State of Retail Supply Chain for the Retail Industry Logistics Association, and the Logistics 2030 study for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. In fact, we are speaking to Rafay today from the CSCMP Edge conference. Rafay, thanks for joining us.
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:34
Thank you, Susan, for inviting me for this brief talk.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:37
Thank you. So, there's been a lot of talk across all industries about the current labor shortage, but the problem feels particularly acute for the supply chain. Can you talk about some of the positions and job types that have been particularly hard for companies to fill, and the challenges they are facing in those areas?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:58
I think we find ourselves in a very unique and unprecedented situation where the demand for labor and management talent has surpassed the capacity or the supply of labor in management skills. If you think about the current situation, we have got a surge in demand across retail. We see a lot of logistics activities on the inbound side, where companies are looking for drivers, they're looking for warehousing staff to be able to stock up the inventory, a nd all the way up to the sourcing and global movement of goods across the oceans. There is just so much need for logistics activities that the available pool of labor and management skills are just not there. Think about all the different options that [the] labor force would have right now. There are many companies who are offering more than—higher-than-usual salaries. I can think of Amazon and Target as some of those companies that will pay you a premium on being available to work for them. Even in the gig market, if you're willing to do a, an Uber or Lyft service or other crowd-sourced options, you can not only make good money, but also have the flexibility in the work schedule that a lot of us are looking for in these tiring times of family-oriented struggles and just making things work. So, when there are limited number of people available and there's a[n] unprecedented surge in demand, these mismatches are bound to happen. So, to answer your question, I think we are seeing issues with finding enough labor and management people to fill the roles that are available all across the board.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:13
And it's seems that it's not just a matter of recruiting the right talent; it is retaining them as well. How much of a factor is that in the labor shortage that we are seeing currently?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 05:25
That's a great question, and if you think about this for a second, both of these issues, recruiting and retention, kind of goes hand in hand. I have met a number of people here at the conference who would share their experience of having worked at a company for just a little bit of time, a little over a year, and already receiving job offers with better salaries and signup bonuses, just to get those people to cross over the fence and come and work for the other company. I think part of the ways this, the retention and recruiting challenges are connected is the way our industry has shifted. If you think about the impact of e-commerce on warehousing and distribution processes, where we have moved away from just moving pallet loads on a forklift truck. We are now asking people to move boxes and pick, pack, and ship orders that are in smaller quantity, just increase the labor work. As well as, the management roles are becoming more complicated. I sometimes refer to this as a little bit of a skill deficit. The complexity of managing today's supply chains and all the technologies that are incorporated in handling this, the new modern supply chain, has left [the industry] with fewer people who are trained, who are skilled to be able to handle this. And once you get workers trained for warehousing operations, or get them attracted to the transportation and driving roles, there is just so much out there that they are, they will easily move to another company, with the premiums being offered.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:21
Right, right. So what are some innovative ways that companies can respond to these challenges?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 07:30
We have to think about the recruitment and the retention of labor force and the management roles in slightly different ways. When you talk about the labor force, there has to be a little bit of flexibility, maybe higher wages. In the most recent study that we have just concluded, these are the things that we are hearing from a lot of businesses. Just the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market means that companies have to pay a little bit of [a] premium to get people to work, to actually come work for the business as a[n] employer of choice. On the management side, there is a strong need for additional training programs, especially management—leadership management programs, that would attract high quality and talented managers to come and work for your company. So, there are ways that companies are handling it, they're tackling it. And that's the need of the time.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:34
Excellent. Do you have any sense of how successful these strategies are? Are the companies that are paying more having less of a challenge recruiting people, or is it still hard?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 08:46
There are recent labor statistics that indicate about 60% of the lost jobs at the start of the pandemic have been recovered. The remaining 40% is where the surge in demand in unavailability of trained and skilled workforce remains. It is not surprising that 60% of middle and top management job opportunities remain unfulfilled. National Association of Manufacturing ha[s] identified this shortage to actually lead up to about $1 trillion worth of lost business by 2030. So, this is a work in progress. Companies are struggling, but they are making the effort to incorporate these training programs, flexible work options, and leadership-development programs to attract and train future leaders.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly09:50
Are there any sort of long-term strategies or solutions companies need to keep in mind. Is this the time you really need to be looking at automation, especially for the labor roles, that is?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 10:01
Yes, and I think part of that automation value proposition has shifted in favor of doing it that way—just the sheer rise in e-commerce and omnichannel, and we are moving product flows in smaller quantities that require more labor. So, from a volume standpoint, automation in the warehouses is making a lot of sense, as far—as well as adding technology from machine learning and artificial intelligence to be able to automate day-to-day workflow so that we can enable managers to actually spend more of their time on strategic initiatives and improving their their supply chains in general.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly10:47
Well, great, thank you so much, Rafay, for joining us today and I'd like to thank our audience for tuning in on some important topics that we are all struggling with. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast so that you can keep up to date with the episodes as they release. Thank you again.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:05
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”