Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Kevin Reader of Knapp on the threat of failing to automate
Companies learned rather early during the pandemic that those with automated processes fared much better than those that relied on manual operations. Failing to automate could mean a company is no longer relevant or competitive.
For links and show notes, mouse over the player and click the .
Transcript
About this week's guest
Kevin Reader is vice president of marketing at Knapp, which provides intelligent intralogistics solutions and specialized software for production, distribution and point of sale. Reader is currently responsible for marketing and business intelligence at Knapp, where he has been instrumental in a five-year, tenfold growth of the company’s North American operations. He was past Executive Director of the Material Handling Institute Solutions Community, is currently a member of the Material Handling Industry (MHI) roundtable advisory group, was the former SVP of Perry Banks Integrated Sales & Marketing, and held various senior management positions for an array of logistics automation companies.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
This podcast is sponsored by Covariant. By now, you're familiar with the challenges of the labor shortage, but I'm excited to share that when it comes to help for picking, sorting, and packing, Covariant has the solution. Covariant's AI robotics solutions ensure your supply chain runs on time and reliably. Within weeks of deployment, the software can power robots to see, learn, and operate at levels comparable with traditional labor, but with significant cost savings. Designed by machine-learning pioneers. Covariant is putting AI robotics into the real world across various industries, including fashion, health and beauty, industrial supply, pharmaceutical, grocery, parcel, and general merchandise. To learn more, check them out at Covariant.ai or on LinkedIn.
Today, we focus on the risk of not automating. I'm David Maloney, the group editorial director for Supply Chain Quarterly, and joining me for this segment is Kevin Reader, the director of business development and marketing at Knapp.
Kevin, the pandemic has shown us a lot of the vulnerabilities. What are you seeing out there?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 01:36
Well, I think back to Modex 2020, and our reaction as a country and the world to the shifts that were about to take place, and we we really weren't sure of what the magnitude was going to be, just that our world is going to change, and within two or three months, the supply chain took a major shift, and we saw it first with with grocery and retail and the enormous spike in e-commerce. So, that was the first harbinger of the changes and the magnitude that we'e about to take place.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 02:18
Labor has been a major consideration, of course, and it's difficult to get workers today. Is that driving the the need that people have, that they have to look at automation as an alternative to some of that?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 02:30
Yeah, that's that's an interesting discussion. Obviously, there's a huge amount of turnover in—from company to company, which raises the issue of training, of new-hire recruitment, and things like that, but in addition to that, you've got an aging workforce—those dynamics haven't changed; you've got a workforce that's basically coming back to work, and in that process, you know, a whole series of changes about the way in which they work, and so on. But there is definitely a shortage, increase in wage rates, and things like that, which is changing the need [and] drivers for automation.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 03:14
A lot of companies right now are trying to consider automation. They realize they have to do something because they can't keep up with demand, but there's also a risk of automating, or maybe not automating in the right type of equipment. What do you say to balance that that risk of automating and the risk of not automating?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 03:35
I would say, in most industries, it's almost a fait accompli. There are certain risks to any change, and change management is certainly a component of it. but automation takes many forms. In some industries, like grocery, we're seeing an automation and change in how supply chain is engineered, with the addition of microfulfillment and hub-and-spoke models and things like that. There's the opportunity for process automation, where you've got software driving those, those changes, anything from batch picking, and things like that, that I've been seeing, is pretty traditional to goods-to-person to the software solutions that are more broad in scope: control towers that act more like a GPS for the management of resources across the board in manufacturing, distribution and fulfillment, and then [word?]. So, it's it's broadened and, you know, we're seeing a major opportunity in terms of both recruiting, management—managing—and optimizing labor and performance.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 04:50
Kevin, are we at a point with companies that if they don't automate, they may not be able to survive?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 04:57
I think that's a real issue. It's certainly a challenge, and we're already seeing companies that are accelerating their compensation programs, their recruitment programs, looking at innovative ways to train and entice employees and retain them. and that's being driven by the fact that their ability to deliver is being compromised.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 05:28
Yeah. And in the past, most automation products were basically evaluated on a return on investment, and if it had a certain return on investment of X number of years, it was acceptable; if it was above that, it wasn't worth doing it. But they can't just throw labor at it anymore. Right?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 05:43
I think you got a couple of issues working here. One is the hurdle rates are being adjusted to reflect that risk. And the second issue really, is that, you know, this is becoming sort of a threshold issue. We have, like, we have to automate, and if we don't automate, we are risking business growth, and so on.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 06:10
What type of acceptable return on investment are you seeing? I mean—and that may vary by country by country, too. I know in Europe, they tend to be a little more tolerant of longer ROIs than they do in the U.S.. but what's considered an acceptable range?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 06:24
You know, I think it's still within the three- to five-year range, but again, we are seeing these threshold decisions, and the issue of labor and automation, moving into a little softer benefit category, where there's a general recognition that this situation is not going to get better in the immediate term, so that automation is being given a little bit wider berth from a CFO perspective,
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 06:55
In looking at doing automation, are people looking for scalable solutions, so they can, in a sense, mitigate that risk and be able to grow little by little in their automation?
07:03
Coming out of Covid, most C-levels are saying to themselves, We have to really double down on our resiliency, our flexibility, and looking at a very significant change in investments. An increase in nearshoring or reshoring, and changes in, you know, in all the things they're looking at. But one of those issues is flexibility and scalability. If things are volatile in the next few years—two years—if they increase in volatility, What are my abilities to flex and change? How do I do this? You know, you look at the reports coming out of McKinsey, for example, and a lot of them are emphasizing the various levels of risk that are seen in the—globally today, and how often, what the frequency is, in those particular levels of risk, and how they're liable to impact the planning in the C-level offices and boards of America, North America and globally, for that matter, in terms of the discussion about, you know, Are my systems, is my automation flexible? Is it scalable? Can I flex and suddenly take a 15 or 20% increase in e-commerce business, for example? Is my, is—what if my store-based business, my mall-based business, goes away? What if it's—is that significant in impact to my supply chain? And all these certainly are cascading in terms of their impact on the return-on-investment calculations, and selection of automation technologies, and the like,
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 09:01
You mentioned e-commerce a moment ago in your answer, and that seems to be driving a lot of the automation now, just because of the intensity of focus on labor with being able to pick e-commerce orders. Are you seeing that among a lot of your customers?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 09:17
Well, definitely. I mean, e-commerce is top of mind, and it's it's pretty logical when you think about it, right? If you're used to shipping multiple line items in cases to a store and suddenly your e-commerce business jumps, you're gonna see a massive spike in your labor. The average lines per order or something in the order of 1.1 or 1.2 lines per order on an e-commerce order, in general, unless it's a B2B e-commerce order, and that just has a huge labor content to it. So, you know, if you consider the e-commerce impact on grocery stores that are picking e-commerce, that's a big money loser, and anyone in the business, from Walmart on down, is looking at—and Kroger and all the others—they're looking at their grocery business and saying, If I'm picking e-commerce orders at a rate of 20% or so now, and those are all single-line orders, then I'm having to pay someone to walk around the stores picking orders. That's a pretty tough value proposition to expand and justify doubling down and investing in all that. You have to automate it or it's a question of how much money you're losing as the business expands.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 10:33
Right. When people think of automation, they often think of the full-blown, you know, large-scale, tens of millions of dollars of automated systems that would fill a warehouse, and be, almost be, in a sense, lights-out, where you don't have very many employees, but that's not really the case with most automation. Can you talk about how there are opportunities for people to automate and be able to afford that automation and still make significant changes in their operations?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 11:02
That's a really good question, and I think everyone is aware that large-scale automation capacity is pretty saturated right now. The ability to contract suppliers to do large automated distribution centers is at an all-time high, and that's, that's difficult. But there are a ton of additional ways to leverage automation and derive significant improvements. You know, this could be robotic work cells. It could include, you know, more islands of automation. It could include a change in one type of packaging, or shipping in boxes to shipping in bags, where you might save $1 a package. If you're shipping thousands of packages a day, that type of impact is is massive. And it could include software solutions, like control towers, that aren't automation in the traditional sense, but they are process automation. and some of those technologies, we're seeing as high as 5 to 30% P&L reduction, in terms of costs. So, I would say there's a broad array of automation options, from soup to nuts, really, that are not just whole scale massive, million-square-foot and above facility automation projects.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 12:29
Kevin, if a company is looking to automate, how do they start?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 12:34
You know, I think that the most important thing is to do some engineering work on your flows, processes. You don't automate manual processes, typically—you've got to assess that and decide where the opportunities are—but I think the most important thing, from my perspective, is selecting a team that you can work with, that listens, as opposed to pitching their product, and then in that process, you develop a relationship of trust. And trust is really the most important factor, I think, in selecting a team and moving forward with automation.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 13:15
In this segment of the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats, we've been talking about the risk of not automating, and our guest has been Kevin Reader, the director of business development and marketing for Knapp. Kevin, thanks for joining us today.
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 13:27
Thank you very much, Dave. Great to talk with you.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly13:29
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."