Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Kevin Reader of Knapp on the threat of failing to automate
Companies learned rather early during the pandemic that those with automated processes fared much better than those that relied on manual operations. Failing to automate could mean a company is no longer relevant or competitive.
For links and show notes, mouse over the player and click the .
Transcript
About this week's guest
Kevin Reader is vice president of marketing at Knapp, which provides intelligent intralogistics solutions and specialized software for production, distribution and point of sale. Reader is currently responsible for marketing and business intelligence at Knapp, where he has been instrumental in a five-year, tenfold growth of the company’s North American operations. He was past Executive Director of the Material Handling Institute Solutions Community, is currently a member of the Material Handling Industry (MHI) roundtable advisory group, was the former SVP of Perry Banks Integrated Sales & Marketing, and held various senior management positions for an array of logistics automation companies.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
This podcast is sponsored by Covariant. By now, you're familiar with the challenges of the labor shortage, but I'm excited to share that when it comes to help for picking, sorting, and packing, Covariant has the solution. Covariant's AI robotics solutions ensure your supply chain runs on time and reliably. Within weeks of deployment, the software can power robots to see, learn, and operate at levels comparable with traditional labor, but with significant cost savings. Designed by machine-learning pioneers. Covariant is putting AI robotics into the real world across various industries, including fashion, health and beauty, industrial supply, pharmaceutical, grocery, parcel, and general merchandise. To learn more, check them out at Covariant.ai or on LinkedIn.
Today, we focus on the risk of not automating. I'm David Maloney, the group editorial director for Supply Chain Quarterly, and joining me for this segment is Kevin Reader, the director of business development and marketing at Knapp.
Kevin, the pandemic has shown us a lot of the vulnerabilities. What are you seeing out there?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 01:36
Well, I think back to Modex 2020, and our reaction as a country and the world to the shifts that were about to take place, and we we really weren't sure of what the magnitude was going to be, just that our world is going to change, and within two or three months, the supply chain took a major shift, and we saw it first with with grocery and retail and the enormous spike in e-commerce. So, that was the first harbinger of the changes and the magnitude that we'e about to take place.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 02:18
Labor has been a major consideration, of course, and it's difficult to get workers today. Is that driving the the need that people have, that they have to look at automation as an alternative to some of that?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 02:30
Yeah, that's that's an interesting discussion. Obviously, there's a huge amount of turnover in—from company to company, which raises the issue of training, of new-hire recruitment, and things like that, but in addition to that, you've got an aging workforce—those dynamics haven't changed; you've got a workforce that's basically coming back to work, and in that process, you know, a whole series of changes about the way in which they work, and so on. But there is definitely a shortage, increase in wage rates, and things like that, which is changing the need [and] drivers for automation.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 03:14
A lot of companies right now are trying to consider automation. They realize they have to do something because they can't keep up with demand, but there's also a risk of automating, or maybe not automating in the right type of equipment. What do you say to balance that that risk of automating and the risk of not automating?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 03:35
I would say, in most industries, it's almost a fait accompli. There are certain risks to any change, and change management is certainly a component of it. but automation takes many forms. In some industries, like grocery, we're seeing an automation and change in how supply chain is engineered, with the addition of microfulfillment and hub-and-spoke models and things like that. There's the opportunity for process automation, where you've got software driving those, those changes, anything from batch picking, and things like that, that I've been seeing, is pretty traditional to goods-to-person to the software solutions that are more broad in scope: control towers that act more like a GPS for the management of resources across the board in manufacturing, distribution and fulfillment, and then [word?]. So, it's it's broadened and, you know, we're seeing a major opportunity in terms of both recruiting, management—managing—and optimizing labor and performance.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 04:50
Kevin, are we at a point with companies that if they don't automate, they may not be able to survive?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 04:57
I think that's a real issue. It's certainly a challenge, and we're already seeing companies that are accelerating their compensation programs, their recruitment programs, looking at innovative ways to train and entice employees and retain them. and that's being driven by the fact that their ability to deliver is being compromised.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 05:28
Yeah. And in the past, most automation products were basically evaluated on a return on investment, and if it had a certain return on investment of X number of years, it was acceptable; if it was above that, it wasn't worth doing it. But they can't just throw labor at it anymore. Right?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 05:43
I think you got a couple of issues working here. One is the hurdle rates are being adjusted to reflect that risk. And the second issue really, is that, you know, this is becoming sort of a threshold issue. We have, like, we have to automate, and if we don't automate, we are risking business growth, and so on.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 06:10
What type of acceptable return on investment are you seeing? I mean—and that may vary by country by country, too. I know in Europe, they tend to be a little more tolerant of longer ROIs than they do in the U.S.. but what's considered an acceptable range?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 06:24
You know, I think it's still within the three- to five-year range, but again, we are seeing these threshold decisions, and the issue of labor and automation, moving into a little softer benefit category, where there's a general recognition that this situation is not going to get better in the immediate term, so that automation is being given a little bit wider berth from a CFO perspective,
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 06:55
In looking at doing automation, are people looking for scalable solutions, so they can, in a sense, mitigate that risk and be able to grow little by little in their automation?
07:03
Coming out of Covid, most C-levels are saying to themselves, We have to really double down on our resiliency, our flexibility, and looking at a very significant change in investments. An increase in nearshoring or reshoring, and changes in, you know, in all the things they're looking at. But one of those issues is flexibility and scalability. If things are volatile in the next few years—two years—if they increase in volatility, What are my abilities to flex and change? How do I do this? You know, you look at the reports coming out of McKinsey, for example, and a lot of them are emphasizing the various levels of risk that are seen in the—globally today, and how often, what the frequency is, in those particular levels of risk, and how they're liable to impact the planning in the C-level offices and boards of America, North America and globally, for that matter, in terms of the discussion about, you know, Are my systems, is my automation flexible? Is it scalable? Can I flex and suddenly take a 15 or 20% increase in e-commerce business, for example? Is my, is—what if my store-based business, my mall-based business, goes away? What if it's—is that significant in impact to my supply chain? And all these certainly are cascading in terms of their impact on the return-on-investment calculations, and selection of automation technologies, and the like,
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 09:01
You mentioned e-commerce a moment ago in your answer, and that seems to be driving a lot of the automation now, just because of the intensity of focus on labor with being able to pick e-commerce orders. Are you seeing that among a lot of your customers?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 09:17
Well, definitely. I mean, e-commerce is top of mind, and it's it's pretty logical when you think about it, right? If you're used to shipping multiple line items in cases to a store and suddenly your e-commerce business jumps, you're gonna see a massive spike in your labor. The average lines per order or something in the order of 1.1 or 1.2 lines per order on an e-commerce order, in general, unless it's a B2B e-commerce order, and that just has a huge labor content to it. So, you know, if you consider the e-commerce impact on grocery stores that are picking e-commerce, that's a big money loser, and anyone in the business, from Walmart on down, is looking at—and Kroger and all the others—they're looking at their grocery business and saying, If I'm picking e-commerce orders at a rate of 20% or so now, and those are all single-line orders, then I'm having to pay someone to walk around the stores picking orders. That's a pretty tough value proposition to expand and justify doubling down and investing in all that. You have to automate it or it's a question of how much money you're losing as the business expands.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 10:33
Right. When people think of automation, they often think of the full-blown, you know, large-scale, tens of millions of dollars of automated systems that would fill a warehouse, and be, almost be, in a sense, lights-out, where you don't have very many employees, but that's not really the case with most automation. Can you talk about how there are opportunities for people to automate and be able to afford that automation and still make significant changes in their operations?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 11:02
That's a really good question, and I think everyone is aware that large-scale automation capacity is pretty saturated right now. The ability to contract suppliers to do large automated distribution centers is at an all-time high, and that's, that's difficult. But there are a ton of additional ways to leverage automation and derive significant improvements. You know, this could be robotic work cells. It could include, you know, more islands of automation. It could include a change in one type of packaging, or shipping in boxes to shipping in bags, where you might save $1 a package. If you're shipping thousands of packages a day, that type of impact is is massive. And it could include software solutions, like control towers, that aren't automation in the traditional sense, but they are process automation. and some of those technologies, we're seeing as high as 5 to 30% P&L reduction, in terms of costs. So, I would say there's a broad array of automation options, from soup to nuts, really, that are not just whole scale massive, million-square-foot and above facility automation projects.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 12:29
Kevin, if a company is looking to automate, how do they start?
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 12:34
You know, I think that the most important thing is to do some engineering work on your flows, processes. You don't automate manual processes, typically—you've got to assess that and decide where the opportunities are—but I think the most important thing, from my perspective, is selecting a team that you can work with, that listens, as opposed to pitching their product, and then in that process, you develop a relationship of trust. And trust is really the most important factor, I think, in selecting a team and moving forward with automation.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, DC Velocity 13:15
In this segment of the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats, we've been talking about the risk of not automating, and our guest has been Kevin Reader, the director of business development and marketing for Knapp. Kevin, thanks for joining us today.
Kevin Reader, Director of Business Development and Marketing, Knapp 13:27
Thank you very much, Dave. Great to talk with you.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly13:29
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”