Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Dale Rogers from Arizona State University on the threat from failing to digitize
To digitize or not to digitize, that is the question. How can companies balance the risk of implementing new technologies with the risk of falling behind competitors?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Dale Rogers is the ON Semiconductor Professor of Business in the Supply Chain Management Department at Arizona State University (ASU). He is also the Director of the Frontier Economies Logistics Lab and the Co-Director of the Internet edge Supply Chain Lab at ASU. He is the recipient of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals 2021 Distinguished Service Award.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
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Today, we focus on the threat posed by failing to digitize supply chains. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly’s managing editor, Diane Rand.
Thank you for joining us for the latest edition of Supply Chain Quarterly’s podcast series on the top 10 threats to supply chains. Today, we will take a look at the risks of digitization—more specifically, the risks involved in not implementing digital technologies into your supply chain and the risks involved in implementing technology but maybe not doing it correctly. We are joined today by Dale Rogers of Arizona State University where he is the director of the Frontier Economics Logistics Lab; co-director of the Internet Edge Supply Chain Lab; and executive director of CARISCA, which stands for the Center for Applied Research and Innovation in Supply Chain-Africa. Dale, thank you so much for joining us. One of the many research programs that you're involved with is the Internet Edge Supply Chain Lab at Arizona State University. What sort of risks do companies face as they implement new technologies, such as those that you study on the Internet Edge?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 02:40
You know, it's interesting, I think. I think this is the time of greatest change in my whole career. There's incredible technological changes—and I'm old, by the way, so I've been around for a long time—and I can't believe how much stuff is happening, and I think companies don't really have a choice. You get left behind very quickly, and truthfully, adopting, I think, autonomous—which involves AI—autonomous digitization, or digitalization, of the supply chain, I think that's pretty important, actually, because the way that you buy software, the way that you implement systems, all of that stuff is changing pretty quickly.
So is digitization the one good way to mitigate some of those, you know, risks?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 03:42
Well, the idea really is that you're going to do new, modern types of systems, some utilizing nonstandard data, unstructured data; better statistics, which really comes through the AI. You're using lots of different tools that are sort of above and beyond the old ERP systems, and, you know, special, what we used to call point systems that sit outside your main system and do all sorts of things, like, for example, reverse logistics, or, you know, different types of supply chain planning, or managing the shelf and using sort of advanced tools that have greater statistical power and are really empowered by greater computing power. All of that stuff is really transforming how we manage supply chains. You can do a lot a lot more sort of automatically. So, I think a good kind of analogy to it is, you know, for 100 years, when you would drive, you would get a paper map, and then for about what, 15, maybe, you would automate it by using Siri and Google Maps and, you know, those kinds of things, and now, very quickly, we're moving to autonomous vehicles. And I live in the Phoenix area, and Google has a division called Waymo, and Waymo has autonomous cars. And a really weird thing that happened to me the other day: I pulled up next to a Waymo vehicle, and there was no driver. So, they were just driving. I didn't know we were doing that. But so...
So what can be done to mitigate implementation risks for those companies looking to...
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 06:09
You know, it's not so much big investments. A lot of moving, digitizing your supply chain management is actually not nearly as costly as those giant ERP projects were back in the late '90s, early 2000s. So, it's way different than putting in an ERP, and there's a lot of affordable solutions. But you got to be aware of it, you got to understand it, and, you know, one of the things a lot of firms are doing—I'm sure you're aware of this—is putting in place a CDO—a chief data officer. So, in addition to the CIO—maybe they report to the CIO—but you have a chief data officer that actually is in charge of all the different places where data is. Another big issue around sort of new systems is cybersecurity as well.
A whole a different topic that we could delve into, for sure. What sort of risks do companies face by not implementing new digital technologies into their supply chain operations?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 07:22
Well, so, so digital technologies really transformed the cost. So, there's a lot of things you can do, and you don't need those expensive, clunky, really heavy systems. You can do things in a light fashion. Just think about AWS, or, you know, Microsoft Du Jour, or the IBM Cloud or Google Cloud, and how those revolutionized the cost, because all of a sudden, you can buy it by the drink, and it's really cheap to get a sliver of a server, and you can use different types of software. It's a whole way of operating. So, for example, 10 years ago, if you were starting up a company, you'd have a pretty big chunk of your budget, maybe up to 40%, around the IT costs. Well, today, your IT costs would be expected to be no more than 15% because of, sort of, these advanced digital tools that allow you to get up and running at a very low cost. So, a private equity firm can fund three companies where they used to be able to fund one, because systems are different than they used to be.
So, how can companies go about balancing those, you know, two risks, you know: the risk of implementing new technology, and it going horribly wrong, and the risk of not implementing the new technologies and falling behind competitors?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 09:05
Well, you know, I think part of it is, I don't I don't think you want to implement huge, big systems. I don't think you should be doing that anymore. I think these are smaller, smaller-size systems, you know.? It's kind of like the difference between a car and a 747. You know, I think you can just take a little drink of water, and the risk is lower, but it also is a[n] easier to manage project, generally, because it's smaller
Have these risks around implementing digital technologies changed in the last 18 months since the beginning of the pandemic?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 09:49
Well, there's a lot more remote and mobile. There's a you know, we manage things via Zoom or Teams or something, and so, absolutely, we're using technology in different ways, and we've seen a lot of shifts happen at the same time. So, this shift to e-commerce, which really was big this past year. We see a shift of working remotely. We see incredible sort of constipation of the logistics systems, you know, lots of ships docked outside of the Port of L.A., and difficulty getting trucks, and all these kinds of things that sort of, together, are shifting how we manage supply chains.
It's really incredible how much has changed in just such a short amount of time.
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 10:49
I think we're going to see a lot more change. You know, you can really see whether we like it or not, a decoupling from China. So, you know, there was this mass move in the '90s, 2000s, "Let's let's source everything from Asia, particularly China," and we're seeing that really change. Some of it's political reasons, both here and also in in China, but a lot of it is just logistics difficulty. So, you know, I think in the last couple of weeks, container costs, coming into the Port of L.A. from Shanghai, like 20 grand, well, if the stuff in the container's only worth 50, you can't afford to do that.
It's definitely challenging times for the supply chain industry, but also exciting in a sense that a lot of new things are going to come about because of it. Well, Dale, thank you so much for your time today, and we really appreciate having you.
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 11:53
Thank you. Nice to be with you.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:56
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”