Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Steve Geary of Supply Chain Visions on how to assess your own risk level
In this conclusion our podcast series on supply chain threats, we learn how companies can assess which threats and risks are most pressing to their own operations.
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Steve Geary is the President of Supply Chain Visions Inc. He works around the globe solving business challenges at every level of complexity, from small and local to large companies with global reach. His clients range from small manufacturing and retail enterprises to multinational giants. Geary holds a BS and a Master's in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from Cornell University and an MBA from the Johnson School at Cornell University. His performance has been recognized by the Deputy Secretary of Defense for exceptional contribution to the defense of our nation. He is a regular contributor and editor for a number of publications, including Supply Chain Quarterly’s sister publication, DC Velocity.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats come opportunities.
Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. Today, we focus on the failure to properly assess risks. Here's your moderator for this segment, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly’s executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly00:49
Welcome to the final episode of Supply Chain Quarterly’s inaugural podcast on the top 10 threats to supply chains. Today, we are joined by global supply chain experts Steve Geary president of Supply Chain Visions family of companies and Supply Chain Quarterly columnist. Coincidentally, Steve and I are hanging out today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' Edge conference, where Steve has been chairing a track of educational sessions on supply chain risk management. Steve, in the previous episodes, we've been highlighting some of the top risks that are facing supply chains these days, and I just was wondering if you can briefly highlight what you feel are some of the top threats today?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 01:32
Well, I think what's become clear during the pandemic is that there are too many accountants in the room. And for years, there has been a blurring of the lines. And that somehow, the definition of "best-value supply chain" became "low-cost supply chain"...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:56
Yes!
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 01:57
...and those two are not the same thing. To me, a best-value supply chain is resilient, it's diverse, and it's secure, and I guarantee you those three things, you put them together, they will not be the low-cost supply chain. So, you can't get hung up on economic best value; you've got to look at strategic best value, and there's a tug of war going on in boardrooms around the country now, because, as we suffer through the pandemic, people are realizing what relying on a supply chain that reaches across the Pacific really means in terms of resilience, because it's not.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:39
Great. So a lot of the threats we're seeing are from having the the global supply chain where we were, we're chasing cost instead of value.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 02:47
We were chasing cost, thinking that was value, and cost and value are not the same thing. It's the eternal tug of war that supply chain folks have always had with the accountants.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:58
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 02:59
We speak different languages, and the challenge for us is we have to understand their language and we have to translate what we mean by "best value" into terms they would understand. It's a market basket; it's not an item.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:13
Ah, right. Great. So obviously, as his companies evaluate the risks that they are seeing, how do they decide which ones to focus on?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:24
You can't be myopic. What people often do, is they look to their suppliers.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:32
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:33
But we live in complex supply chains now.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:36
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:37
We don't have a supplier anymore. We have a wedding cake, ...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:41
Yes, good.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:41
... and it doesn't matter to me which teir fails. If any teir or fails, the cake falls, and the cake can fall and the teir can fall with the failure of an individual supplier. So, what you have to do is collaborate across the teirs.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:00
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:01
You have to work with your suppliers and partner with your suppliers ,and oftentimes, they're not going to be very excited about revealing some of the information, because it's their proprietary information. Maybe you bring in a third party. Maybe you provide them with an audit that they can, "Please do this audit, you can take the company's name off of it, and then we can discuss it." You pick the high-risk tracks and you start there. You have to—you can't do it all at once, but find your high-risk tracks, reach out to your next-tier suppliers, have them reach out to their next-tier suppliers, and it's just the wedding cake.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:40
Okay. So, obviously you want your suppliers at your—at the table while you decide what those top risks are. Who else should you be talking to?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:47
You should be talking to your customers as well.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:49
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:50
Because you have to understand, just like there's risks going down, there's risks going up. You need to, I mean, because we all line up our supply chains based on our understanding of what demand will be. Well, how brittle is that demand?
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:06
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:06
Will it shatter? And that is a conversation that you need to have with your customers as well, and you may be able to help them with that. It may prove to be a market opportunity. So, you look left and you look right. It's just like when you were a little kid crossing the street. Look both ways before you cross.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:27
Yes, but these are very difficult conversations. Any ways on how to broach those topics in a way that's not going to put people on the defensive?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:36
Well, it's the old movie line, "Show me the money."
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:39
Okay. Okay. We're back to accountants now.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:43
We are back to accountants, but at the end of the day, the game is scored by the money.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:47
Okay, yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:49
And so, I still talk about value propositions and assessing my supply chain, which is different from the way that the accountants may talk about it, but the unit of measure is still money.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:00
Okay. Do companies need to think about risk management differently these days than they did, maybe, before the pandemic hit? Or is it the same?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:12
Well, I'm being careful in my words, because I never want to tell somebody that they're wrong...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:18
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:18
... and I never want to tell somebody that they need to think differently, because that implies that they're wrong.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:24
Good point.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:25
But I might say that they may need to think more holistically.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:28
Okay, good.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:29
Broaden the horizon, broaden your sight picture.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:33
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:34
It's bigger than you historically thought it was.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:36
All right. Any suggestions on some blind spots companies have had about not thinking holistically like areas that they haven't traditionally looked at?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:47
China.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:48
Okay. That's a big one. Yeah.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:50
That's a huge one. It's, everyone went to China.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:52
Yeah.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:54
It is—it's crazy how reliant we are on China now, and that's putting all of your eggs in one basket.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:03
Yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:04
Or the—I just—we were talking before about my recent purchase of a car...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:09
Yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:10
... and the car shortage that exists because of the lack of chips, because all chips—I won't say all chips—the vast preponderance of chips going in automobiles come from Taiwan. And now suddenly, you can't—there is a restricted supply of new automobiles in this country, and depending on who you talk to, it's going to be months to a year before that is finally resolved. That's just—people weren't—they weren't doing a mixed bundle in their basket.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:40
Okay. So, think holistically; keep—add seats to the table [for] people to talk to, and that's, are two good first steps to take when broadening your your risk management,
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:55
You have to—and you have to establish a common vocabulary with the accountants, because the ultimate score keepers in any company are the accountants, and if they don't understand what you're talking about, you will continue to talk past one another. You have to establish a common understanding of what "best value" is and how you're going to measure it, and understand that that's different from "lowest cost."
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:27
Perfect. Steve, thanks so much for taking some time to sit down with us today, and I hope we will talk to you again soon.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 08:34
It's always a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:36
Thanks, Steve.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly08:37
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”