The growth of electronic commerce, with its small orders for individual consumers, will require some big changes in warehousing and distribution operations.
Electronic commerce is booming as more consumers embrace online shopping. According to Forrester Research Inc., e-commerce retail sales in the United States reached US $197 billion in 2011 and are forecast to increase to US $279 billion in 2015. If we look at month-by-month sales figures for e-commerce provided by IHS Global Insight, we see that even in this sluggish economy, online retail sales continued to rise (see Figure 1).
The growth in direct-to-consumer distribution is adding to the complexity and flexibility of supply chains, introducing unique challenges to a process that has been lean for a long time. Distribution centers (DCs) have progressed from cross-docking shipments to handling pallet loads, to case picking, and now to "each" picking.
Article Figures
[Figure 1] E-commerce retail sales (seasonally adjusted, billions of U.S. dollars)Enlarge this image
Direct-to-consumer order fulfillment places a number of demands on distribution operations. DCs today receive orders that may consist of just one item, and they must pick, pack, and then ship that single item to an individual consumer. They require more robust fulfillment systems to manage the handling of these individual orders. In addition, a very high number of stock-keeping units (SKUs) must be kept on-site, with little or no turnover predictability. And because consumers have very high expectations for order timeliness, tracking, and accuracy, they demand extreme accountability, down to a single item and order, from DC operators.
As a result, e-commerce is driving distribution centers to increase their unit flow in less space and in less time. The process of sending a large order that includes "each" picks to a retailer, which seemed so complex just a few years ago, is now an easy assignment compared to sending an individual product to a consumer. It is especially challenging for companies that are doing both types of fulfillment from the same facility.
A vision of success
Looking forward, companies may have to re-evaluate the design of their distribution centers to be sure they can meet the e-commerce challenge. Redesigns may involve changing the layout—a plan that is often met with great resistance, as it is never a pleasant experience. Introducing more automation into the distribution center is becoming necessary to accommodate the fast-growing e-commerce channel. In that regard, DCs now have to look at implementing systems that can manage inventory from receipt to order fulfillment in a more sophisticated way. Warehouse management systems are becoming less of "an option" and more of a "must have" for companies that are planning to tackle this new channel. In addition, unit sortation systems are becoming more and more applicable, especially in the apparel industry, where e-commerce seems to be achieving its biggest growth around the world.
In order to compete, companies are going to have to coordinate their marketing communications with their supply chain and logistics organizations. In addition, having a storefront with a physical address will enhance business opportunities for "storefronts" with a Web address. That's because retail stores have a certain credibility that a "dot-com" business may lack. Moreover, consumers still want to see, feel, and touch products in many cases before they buy online. This dual relationship will become the norm for the foreseeable future.
In the next three to five years, a company's vision as it relates to e-commerce is going to be critical to its success. That is why many companies are now looking to consultants and systems integrators that have experience in managing this growing distribution channel to help them move into the next chapter of their business. Companies that adapt their distribution operations to the new era of e-commerce (and service providers that help them achieve that goal) will have the brightest future.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”