It used to be that when someone asked what industry our media organization covered and I responded “supply chain,” I would get an uncomprehending blank stare in return. Most folks had never heard of supply chain and just assumed the products that they buy every day somehow magically appear in their favorite stores.
In some ways, that should be a compliment, similar to a baseball umpire being unnoticed in a game because they have done a good job of making calls accurately. Supply chains were humming along prior to the pandemic. No one took notice.
However, if someone asks me that same question today, everyone understands what I mean by supply chain, and their affirmative nod is often followed up with a question about why this or that product is now in short supply.
Our supply chains are out of sync, which is the appropriate title of this year’s “State of Logistics Report,” authored by global management consulting firm Kearney for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and presented by logistics service provider Penske Logistics. The report provides an in-depth view of the logistics industry within the United States and its impact on the world economy.
The 33rd edition of this annual report reflects on the state of the industry during the past year and serves as the jumping off point for CSCMP’sSupply Chain Quarterly’s own annual State of Logistics issue.
Saying our supply chains are currently “out of sync” may actually be putting it mildly. Costs are rising, services often take longer, and capacity is still hard to find for many lanes. Overall, U.S. business logistics costs rose a little more than 22% during the past year. That amounts to $1.85 trillion or 8% of 2021’s U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This reverses a trend before the pandemic where logistics operations were becoming so efficient that those cost percentages had been moving downward.
The biggest increases were for trucking, as high fuel prices gouged wallets in ways we have not seen for decades. Demand was still high, as companies sought to bring in more inventories to assure they had adequate stock in attempts to reduce well-publicized product shortages. Many shippers found capacity harder to find and when obtained, that capacity was more costly.
Since COVID is not entirely in the rearview mirror yet, it continued to play a significant role during the past year, primarily from long shutdowns at Chinese ports and manufacturing centers. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also contributed to supply problems and higher fuel costs.
Beyond the synopsis of the CSCMP report, this special issue of Supply Chain Quarterly also offers expanded coverage from industry experts, who provide their insights into specific supply chain verticals. We deliver this analysis in easily digestible slices of trucking, rail, ocean, air freight, parcel inventory management, warehousing, third-party logistics, and technology.
When we wrote last year’s issue, we had looked forward to a return to a bit of normalcy. Sadly, we are far from it. Hopefully, the insights in this issue will help us get a little closer to being more in sync next year.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.
Shippers are actively preparing for changes in tariffs and trade policy through steps like analyzing their existing customs data, identifying alternative suppliers, and re-evaluating their cross-border strategies, according to research from logistics provider C.H. Robinson.
They are acting now because survey results show that shippers say the top risk to their supply chains in 2025 is changes in tariffs and trade policy. And nearly 50% say the uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy is already a pain point for them today, the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company said.
In a move to answer those concerns, C.H. Robinson says it has been working with its clients by running risk scenarios, building and implementing contingency plans, engineering and executing tariff solutions, and increasing supply chain diversification and agility.
“Having visibility into your full supply chain is no longer a nice-to-have. In 2025, visibility is a competitive differentiator and shippers without the technology and expertise to support real-time data and insights, contingency planning, and quick action will face increased supply chain risks,” Jordan Kass, President of C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions, said in a release.
The company’s survey showed that shippers say the top five ways they are planning for those risks: identifying where they can switch sourcing to save money, analyzing customs data, evaluating cross-border strategies, running risk scenarios, and lowering their dependence on Chinese imports.
President of C.H. Robinson Global Forwarding, Mike Short, said: “In today’s uncertain shipping environment, shippers are looking for ways to reduce their susceptibility to events that impact logistics but are out of their control. By diversifying their supply chains, getting access to the latest information and having a global supply chain partner able to flex with their needs at a moment’s notice, shippers can gain something they don’t always have when disruptions and policy changes occur - options.”
That strategy is described by RILA President Brian Dodge in a document titled “2025 Retail Public Policy Agenda,” which begins by describing leading retailers as “dynamic and multifaceted businesses that begin on Main Street and stretch across the world to bring high value and affordable consumer goods to American families.”
RILA says its policy priorities support that membership in four ways:
Investing in people. Retail is for everyone; the place for a first job, 2nd chance, third act, or a side hustle – the retail workforce represents the American workforce.
Ensuring a safe, sustainable future. RILA is working with lawmakers to help shape policies that protect our customers and meet expectations regarding environmental concerns.
Leading in the community. Retail is more than a store; we are an integral part of the fabric of our communities.
“As Congress and the Trump administration move forward to adopt policies that reduce regulatory burdens, create economic growth, and bring value to American families, understanding how such policies will impact retailers and the communities we serve is imperative,” Dodge said. “RILA and its member companies look forward to collaborating with policymakers to provide industry-specific insights and data to help shape any policies under consideration.”
Logistics service provider (LSP) DHL Supply Chain is continuing to extend its investments in global multi-shoring and in reverse logistics, marking efforts to help its clients adjust to the challenging business and economic conditions of 2025.
The company’s focus on improving e-commerce parcel flows comes as a time when retailers are facing an array of delivery challenges—both international and domestic—triggered by a cascade of swift changes in reciprocal tariffs, “de minimis” import fees, and other protectionist escalations of trade war conditions imposed by the newly seated Trump Administration. While business groups are largely opposed to those policies, they still need strategies to accommodate those rules of the road as long as the new rules remain in place.
Accordingly, DHL last week released a new study on the growing importance of multi-shoring strategies that go beyond the classic “China Plus 1” philosophy and focuses on diversifying production and supplier locations even further, to multiple countries. This expanded “China Plus X” strategy can help companies build resilient supply chains by choosing more diverse production locations in response to global trade disruptions. The study offers five criteria for sourcing goods from countries outside China such as India, Vietnam, Hungary, and Mexico, depending on the procurement needs of each particular industry.
As the Trump Administration threatens new steps in a growing trade war, U.S. manufacturers and retailers are calling for a ceasefire, saying the crossfire caused by the new tax hikes on American businesses will raise prices for consumers and possibly trigger rising inflation.
Tariffs are taxes charged by a country on its own businesses that import goods from other nations. Until they can invest in long-term alternatives like building new factories or finding new trading partners, companies must either take those additional tax duties out of their profit margins or pass them on to consumers as higher prices.
The Trump Administration on Thursday announced it may impose “reciprocal tariffs” on any country that currently holds tariffs on the import of U.S. goods. That step followed earlier threats to apply tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum beginning March 12, another plan to charge tariffs on the import of materials from Canada and Mexico—now postponed until early March—and new round of tariffs on imports from China including a 10% blanket increase and the elimination of the “de minimis” exception for individual items under a value of $800 each.
Various industry groups say that while the Administration may have legitimate goals in ramping up a trade war—such as lowering foreign tariff and non-tariff trade barriers—applying a strategy of hiking tariffs on imports coming into America would inflict economic harm on U.S. businesses and consumers.
“This tariff-heavy approach continues to gamble with our economic prosperity and is based on incomplete thinking about the vital role ethical and fairly traded imports play in the prosperity,” Steve Lamar, president and CEO of The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) said in a release. “Putting America first means ensuring predictability for American businesses that create U.S. jobs; affordable options for American consumers who power our economy; opportunities for farmers who feed our families; and support for tens of millions of U.S. workers whose trade dependent jobs make our factories, our stores, our warehouses, and our offices function. Sweeping new tariffs — a possible outcome of this exercise — instead puts America last, raising costs for American manufacturers for critical inputs and materials, closing key markets for American farmers, and raising prices for hardworking American families.”
A similar message came from the National Retail Federation (NRF), whose executive vice president of government relations, David French, said: “While we support the president’s efforts to reduce trade barriers and imbalances, this scale of undertaking is massive and will be extremely disruptive to our supply chains. It will likely result in higher prices for hardworking American families and will erode household spending power. We encourage the president to seek coordination and collaboration with our trading partners and bring stability to our supply chains and family budgets.”
The logistics tech firm Körber Supply Chain Software has a common position. "The imposition of new tariffs, or the suspension of tariffs, introduces substantial challenges for businesses dependent on international supply chains. Industries such as automotive and electronics, which rely heavily on cross-border trade with Mexico and Canada, are particularly vulnerable,” Steve Blough, Chief Strategist at Körber Supply Chain Software, said in an emailed statement. “Supply chains that are doing low-value ecommerce deliveries will have their business model thrown into complete disarray. The increased costs due to tariffs, or the increased costs in processing time due to suspensions, may lead to higher consumer prices and processing times.”
And further opposition to the strategy came from the California-based IT consulting firm Bristlecone. “Tariffs or the potential for tariffs increase uncertainty throughout the supply chain, potentially stalling deals, impacting the sourcing of raw materials, and prompting higher prices for consumers,” Jen Chew, Bristlecone’s VP of Solutions & Consulting, said in a statement. “Tariffs and other protectionist economic policies reflect an overarching trend away from global sourcing and toward local sourcing and production. However, despite the perceived benefits of local operations, some resources and capabilities may simply not be available locally, prompting manufacturers to continue operations overseas, even if it means paying steep tariffs.”