The 2022 CSCMP Distinguished Service Award Winner Masao Nishi has spent his career helping companies put into practice the latest in supply chain thought leadership.
In many ways, Masao Nishi’s career has mirrored the growth and development of the field of supply chain management itself. The 2022 winner of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals Distinguished Service Award, Nishi started his career with a very technical role at the manufacturing and supply company Western Electric, designing warehouses and distribution centers.
Each subsequent job that he took extended his view of the supply chain one step broader—at the same that he was witnessing the industry as a whole begin to view the supply chain more strategically and holistically.
Nishi’s wide and varied career took him to all corners of the supply chain. He has worked not only for shippers such as Western Electric and the food service distributor Sysco but also for major transportation and technology service providers. He has also served as a consultant both with large firms such as KPMG and Sedlak Management Consultants and on his own. In the academic realm, he has taught as an adjunct faculty member at St. Louis University and serves on the advisory board at the University of Missouri–St. Louis. Currently, he is principal of M. Nishi Strategic Advisory.
In many of these roles, Nishi served as an innovator or pioneer, helping to introduce and implement what were then new concepts, processes, or tools. For example, as the concept of third-party logistics providers (3PLs) began to form in the 1980s, Nishi played a key role at Leaseway Transportation (now Penske) as president of its consulting subsidiary Logistics Resource Inc. Then as software applications began to radically transform logistics and supply chain management, Nishi held leadership roles at Manugistics (now Blue Yonder) and the Sabre Group.
“I almost never came in to do a job that already existed,” explains Nishi. “In just about every case, I was walking into a new area that had to be created and developed. It was up to me to do something in a new position.”
In this conversation with Supply Chain Quarterly’s Managing Editor Diane Rand, Nishi looks back at how the business world’s view of supply chain management has evolved and what it takes to implement a major transformation effort that can drive a supply chain to the next level.
NAME: Masao Nishi
TITLE: Principal at M. Nishi Strategic Advisory
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE: vice president, supply chain management and a corporate officer at Sysco Corp., senior executive at several technology startup businesses, partner at KPMG Consulting, vice president at Sabre Group and Manugistics (Blue Yonder), and president of a subsidiary at Leaseway Transportation (Penske), management roles at Sedlak Management Consultants and Western Electric Co.
LEADERSHIP: Executive Committee of CSCMP, the Science Advisory Board at Manhattan Associates, Chair for the Supply Chain and Analytics Advisory Board at the University of Missouri–Saint Louis, member of the McKelvey Engineering Alumni Advisory Board at Washington University
EDUCATION: Bachelor of Science in applied mathematics and computer science and an MBA, from Washington University in St. Louis.
CSCMP MEMBER: since 1980
You have been involved in a lot of different aspects of the supply chain during your career. How have you benefited from all these different positions?
The supply chain is a huge field, and a lot of things fall under its umbrella. Early on, I started out in the warehousing part of it. Just coming out of school, I got a job with Western Electric, part of AT&T. It happened to be in the warehousing distribution area. I am an engineer, and it was a technical position dealing with warehousing and distribution center design.
But over time, I switched over to the transportation side, focusing a lot on trucking kinds of activities. It wasn’t planned. It is not like I wanted to get away from warehousing and get into trucking and transportation and distribution. It just turned out that the next position I got was more oriented to transportation. So, I broadened my base of knowledge.
I was involved with transportation when the concept of 3PLs started. I was around at that point in time when trucking services were becoming more of a solutions-oriented business, where we were dealing more holistically with our customers in trying to figure out how best to serve them. All of a sudden, I was branching out beyond warehousing and transportation into more of a broader logistics person.
Throughout a lot of this, my career was very much technology oriented. It was a combination of transportation and warehousing and supply chain technology that supported these activities, so I got on that side of it too.
That is how it grew. I got more into consulting and more into technology software companies. It is all under the same umbrella but different aspects of it. I just had the opportunity to go from one company to another that enabled me to build the base of experience.
What are some of the biggest changes you have seen in the logistics or supply chain space over the years since you began your career?
What has happened is that people started looking more at a bigger piece of the business at one time. When I started out, people were trucking experts. They were warehousing experts. They were inventory experts. They knew their piece, and they were great at it, but their view was very small and narrow. Over time, people started to look a little more broadly. Let’s not just look at trucking by itself, let’s look at trucking and distribution and warehousing at the same time. So, you start to look at a bigger picture.
And management is stepping back a little bit and saying, “Okay, let’s not suboptimize, let’s look at the bigger picture and balance these different activities. Across our company, let’s make sure our trucking, warehousing, inventory, customer service, procurement—all of that—is balanced in a way that is best overall rather than best for one piece or another.”
Then, from there, we started to say, “Okay, we’ve got our company balanced as good as we can balance it, let’s make sure we are working with our suppliers and our customers in a smart way.” So, we started looking beyond our business and looked at how we could do better combined with our suppliers. And the same thing with our customers.
Now we are talking about the supply chain world. Now we are looking at the end-to-end supply chain, and let’s see if we can’t make the whole supply chain as good as it can be. So, it has very much extended from just managing trucking and other siloed activities for your company to the entire end-to-end supply chain. That is a huge change.
Absolutely. Do you see more compromise as a whole from all the different moving parts because everyone’s goal is now focused on making the entire supply chain work efficiently?
On the one hand, I think there is. Many people are doing everything they can to get the whole supply chain balanced as well as possible and have a truly good end-to-end supply chain operating.
But the reality is it is a constant battle, and you have to stay on top of it. Company-to-company relationships change. You know, you have the right management working together and everything is working great between companies, but then management changes, people change. All of a sudden, the supplier is really interested in getting their numbers right, so that they don’t care about you anymore. Or it could be the other way around. It is constantly changing, and you have to stay on top of it and make sure that whatever is good stays that way and whatever is weak you try to make it better.
What advice would you give to someone who is starting out in supply chain?
It is a great field. It is a big field, so there are any number of things that you can do that falls under supply chain. The fact is, for many companies, their entire business is about supply chain. If you look at retail, retail is a supply chain business. What they do is they buy from suppliers. They move product. They warehouse, inventory, and deliver to stores or customers. They are the middleman between the supplier and the end customer, and that is all supply chain. If you want to go into retail, you are going into the supply chain business.
Or if you are a distributor. I worked for a huge distributor, Sysco Corporation. They are a supply chain company because it is the same story, they buy, warehouse, transport, and deliver. Manufacturers have the additional responsibility of making products. But like in the other industries, they have the critical responsibility of effectively synchronizing and managing the inbound and outbound supply chain.
Many supply chain jobs are operational, execution jobs. There are also many operations planning jobs. And, it may surprise some to hear that many supply chain professionals are information technology professionals and analytics professionals. It can be a complex field where IT and analytics are critical for a company to be in the game and be successful.
So, understanding or studying supply chain is a very good thing. Traditional business education is fine, but if you are a supply chain major you are immersed in the idea that many business activities are interrelated and interdependent and you don’t want to suboptimize. It is a good area to get well educated in.
You mentioned Sysco. I know you helped the company revamp their inbound transportation operations. What advice would you give to professionals who are looking to lead major change initiatives, supply chain initiatives, within their organizations?
Yes. I was involved in a significant transformation initiative at Sysco. One thing is that it is very difficult—not impossible but difficult—for insiders to transform their own business. In my case, I was from outside the company. I did not have 20 years with Sysco before I was given the responsibility to do this transformation. I didn’t know all the people all around the country at Sysco doing the work that we were about to transform, inbound transportation. We centralized a function that had been managed at 100 locations. It is much easier for somebody coming from the outside who doesn’t have the history. I didn’t have a deep understanding of everything that they were doing and why. If you haven’t lived the history, it’s easier to take a step back and try to make objective decisions. If you know too much, you get all tangled up with that. It is helpful to have someone from the outside. But if you are an insider, I think it is important to recognize the potential problems and understand that transformation is not about consensus.
It makes sense because you don’t have all of the baggage per se to weigh you down. You are just looking at the problem objectively.
The other piece of this is that someone at the very top—the CEO or the chief operating officer—has to absolutely be an advocate and 100% supportive. If you bring in an outsider to do something big and you only give them halfway support, that person is absolutely doomed to fail. The outsider would be gone.
The senior executives have to buy into what it is that is going to have to happen. That is key. In my case, the chief operating officer was a strong advocate (not that he didn’t provide strong guidance when I needed it). He was a strong supporter and gave me cover when that was needed. If you are making a big change, you are affecting a lot of people. Necessarily, some people are not going to be happy about it, and there will be complaints, some fair, some unfair. You need someone at the top who will only listen to a point and then shut them down.
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Even as the e-commerce sector overall continues expanding toward a forecasted 41% of all retail sales by 2027, many small to medium e-commerce companies are struggling to find the investment funding they need to increase sales, according to a sector survey from online capital platform Stenn.
Global geopolitical instability and increasing inflation are causing e-commerce firms to face a liquidity crisis, which means companies may not be able to access the funds they need to grow, Stenn’s survey of 500 senior e-commerce leaders found. The research was conducted by Opinion Matters between August 29 and September 5.
Survey findings include:
61.8% of leaders who sought growth capital did so to invest in advanced technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to improve their businesses.
When asked which resources they wished they had more access to, 63.8% of respondents pointed to growth capital.
Women indicated a stronger need for business operations training (51.2%) and financial planning resources (48.8%) compared to men (30.8% and 15.4%).
40% of business owners are seeking external financial advice and mentorship at least once a week to help with business decisions.
Almost half (49.6%) of respondents are proactively forecasting their business activity 6-18 months ahead.
“As e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, driven by increasing online consumer demand and technological innovation, it’s important to remember that capital constraints and access to growth financing remain persistent hurdles for many e-commerce business leaders especially at small and medium-sized businesses,” Noel Hillman, Chief Commercial Officer at Stenn, said in a release. “In this competitive landscape, ensuring liquidity and optimizing supply chain processes are critical to sustaining growth and scaling operations.”
With six keynote and more than 100 educational sessions, CSCMP EDGE 2024 offered a wealth of content. Here are highlights from just some of the presentations.
A great American story
Author and entrepreneur Fawn Weaver closed out the first day of the conference by telling the little-known story of Nathan “Nearest” Green, who was born into slavery, freed after the Civil War, and went on to become the first master distiller for the Jack Daniel’s Whiskey brand. Through extensive research and interviews with descendants of the Daniel and Green families, Weaver discovered what she describes as a positive American story.
She told the story in her best-selling book, Love & Whiskey: The Remarkable True Story of Jack Daniel, His Master Distiller Nearest Green, and the Improbable Rise of Uncle Nearest. That story also inspired her to create Uncle Nearest Premium Whiskey.
Weaver discussed the barriers she encountered in bringing the brand to life, her vision for where it’s headed, and her take on the supply chain—which she views as both a necessary cost of doing business and an opportunity.
“[It’s] an opportunity if you can move quickly,” she said, pointing to a recent project in which the company was able to fast-track a new Uncle Nearest product thanks to close collaboration with its supply chain partners.
A two-pronged business transformation
We may be living in a world full of technology, but strategy and focus remain the top priorities when it comes to managing a business and its supply chains. So says Roberto Isaias, executive vice president and chief supply chain officer for toy manufacturing and entertainment company Mattel.
Isaias emphasized the point during his keynote on day two of EDGE 2024. He described how Mattel transformed itself amid surging demand for Barbie-branded items following the success of the Barbie movie.
That transformation, according to Isaias, came on two fronts: commercially and logistically. Today, Mattel is steadily moving beyond the toy aisle with two films and 13 TV series in production as well as 14 films and 35 shows in development. And as for those supply chain gains? The company has saved millions, increased productivity, and improved profit margins—even amid cost increases and inflation.
A framework for chasing excellence
Most of the time when CEOs present at an industry conference, they like to talk about their companies’ success stories. Not J.B. Hunt’s Shelley Simpson. Speaking at EDGE, the trucking company’s president and CEO led with a story about a time that the company lost a major customer.
According to Simpson, the company had a customer of their dedicated contract business in 2001 that was consistently making late shipments with no lead time. “We were working like crazy to try to satisfy them, and lost their business,” Simpson said.
When the team at J.B. Hunt later met with the customer’s chief supply chain officer and related all they had been doing, the customer responded, “You never shared everything you were doing for us.”
Out of that experience, came J.B. Hunt’s Customer Value Delivery framework. The framework consists of five steps: 1) understand customer needs, 2) deliver expectations, 3) measure results, 4) communicate performance, and 5) anticipate new value.
Next year’s CSCMP EDGE conference on October 5–8 in National Harbor, Md., promises to have a similarly deep lineup of keynote presentations. Register early at www.cscmpedge.org.
2024 was expected to be a bounce-back year for the logistics industry. We had the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and the economy was proving to be more resilient than expected, defying those prognosticators who believed a recession was imminent.
While most of the economy managed to stabilize in 2024, the logistics industry continued to see disruption and changes in international trade. World events conspired to drive much of the narrative surrounding the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, a diminished reliance on China as a source for goods reduced some of the international trade flow from that manufacturing hub. Some of this trade diverted to other Asian nations, while nearshoring efforts brought some production back to North America, particularly Mexico.
Meanwhile trucking in the United States continued its 2-year recession, highlighted by weaker demand and excess capacity. Both contributed to a slow year, especially for truckload carriers that comprise about 90% of over-the-road shipments.
Labor issues were also front and center in 2024, as ports and rail companies dealt with threats of strikes, which resulted in new contracts and increased costs. Labor—and often a lack of it—continues to be an ongoing concern in the logistics industry.
In this annual issue, we bring a year-end perspective to these topics and more. Our issue is designed to complement CSCMP’s 35th Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released in June, and includes updates that were presented at the CSCMP EDGE conference held in October. In addition to this overview of the market, we have engaged top industry experts to dig into the status of key logistics sectors.
Hopefully as we move into 2025, logistics markets will build on an improving economy and strong consumer demand, while stabilizing those parts of the industry that could use some adrenaline, such as trucking. By this time next year, we hope to see a full recovery as the market fulfills its promise to deliver the needs of our very connected world.
If you feel like your supply chain has been continuously buffeted by external forces over the last few years and that you are constantly having to adjust your operations to tact through the winds of change, you are not alone.
The Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ (CSCMP’s) “35th Annual State of Logistics Report” and the subsequent follow-up presentation at the CSCMP EDGE Annual Conference depict a logistics industry facing intense external stresses, such as geopolitical conflict, severe weather events and climate change, labor action, and inflation. The past 18 months have seen all these factors have an impact on demand for transportation and logistics services as well as capacity, freight rates, and overall costs.
The “State of Logistics Report” is an annual study compiled and authored by a team of analysts from Kearney for CSCMP and supported and sponsored by logistics service provider Penske Logistics. The purpose of the report is to provide a snapshot of the logistics industry by assessing macroeconomic conditions and providing a detailed look at its major subsectors.
One of the key metrics the report has tracked every year since its inception in 1988 is U.S. business logistics costs (USBLC). This year’s report found that U.S. business logistics costs went down in 2023 for the first time since the start of the pandemic. As Figure 1 shows, U.S. business logistics costs for 2023 dropped 11.2% year-over-year to $2.4 trillion, or 8.7% of last year’s $27.4 trillion gross domestic product (GDP).
“This was not unexpected,” said Josh Brogan, Kearney partner and lead author of the report, during a press conference in June announcing the results. “After the initial impacts of COVID were felt in 2020, we saw a steady rise of logistics costs, even in terms of total GDP. What we are seeing now is a reversion more toward the mean.”
This breakdown of U.S. Business Logistics Costs for 2023 shows an across-the-board decline in all transportation costs.
CSCMP's 35th Annual "State of Logistics Report"
As a result, Figure 1 shows an across-the-board decline in transportation costs (except for some administrative costs) for the 2023 calendar year. “What such a chart cannot fully capture about this period is the intensification of certain external stressors on the global economy and its logistical networks,” says the report. “These include a growing geopolitical instability that further complicates investment and policy decisions for business leaders and government officials.”Both the report and the follow-up session at the CSCMP EDGE Conference in October provided a vivid picture of the global instability that logistics providers and shippers are facing. These conditions include (but are not limited to):
An intensification of military conflict, with the Red Sea Crisis being particularly top of mind for companies shipping from Asia to Europe or to the eastern part of North America;
Continued fragmentation of global trade, as evidenced by the deepening rift between China and the United States;
Climate change and severe weather events, such as the drought in Panama, which lowered water levels in the Panama Canal, and the two massive hurricanes that ripped through the Southeastern United States;
Labor disputes, such as the three-day port strike which stopped operations at ports along the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States in October; and
Persistent inflation (despite some recent improvement in the United States) and muted global economic growth.
At the same time that the logistics market was dealing with these external factors, it was also facing sluggish freight demand and an ongoing excess of capacity. These twin dynamics have contributed to continued low cargo rates through 2024.
“For 2024, I foresee a generally flat USBLC as a percentage of GDP,” says Brogan. “We did see increases in air and ocean costs in preparation for the East Coast port strike but overall, road freight is down. I think this will balance out with the relatively low level of inflation seen in the general economy.”
Breakdown by mode
The following is a quick review of how the forces outlined above are affecting the primary logistics sectors, as described by the “State of Logistics Report” and the updated presentation given at the CSCMP EDGE Conference in early October.
Trucking: A downturn in consumer demand plus a lingering surplus in capacity led to a plunge in rates in 2023 compared to 2022. Throughout 2024, however, rates have remained relatively stable. Speaking in October, report author Brogan said he expects that trend to continue for the near future. On the capacity side, despite thousands of companies having departed the market since 2022, the number of departures has not been as high as would normally be expected during a down market. Brogan accounts this to investors expecting to see some turbulence in the marketplace and being willing to stick around longer than has traditionally been the case.
Parcel and last mile: Parcel volumes in 2023 were down by 0.5% compared to 2022. Simultaneously, there has been a move away from UPS and FedEx, both of which saw their year-over-year parcel volumes decline in 2023. Nontraditional competitors have taken larger portions of the parcel volume, including Amazon, which passed UPS for the largest parcel carrier in the U.S. in 2023. Additionally, there has been an increasing use of regional providers, as large shippers continue to shift away from “single sourcing” their carrier base. Parcel volumes have increased in 2024, mostly driven by e-commerce. Brogan expects regional providers to claim “the lion’s share” of this volume.
Rail: In 2023, Class I railroads experienced a challenging financial environment, characterized by a 4% increase in operating ratios, a 2% decline in revenue, and an 11% decrease in operating income compared to 2022. These financial troubles were primarily driven by intermodal volume decreases, service challenges, inflationary pressures, escalated fuel and labor expenses, and a surge in employee headcount. The outlook for 2024 is slightly more promising, according to Kearney. Intermodal, often regarded a primary growth driver, has seen increased volumes and market share. Class I railroads are also seeing some positive operational developments with train speeds increasing by 2.3% and terminal dwell times decreasing by 1.8%. Finally, opportunities are opening up for an expansion in cross-border rail traffic within North America.
Air: The air freight market saw a steep decline in costs year over year from 2022 to 2023. Rates in 2024 began flat before starting to pick up in the summer, and report authors expect to see demand increase by 4.5%. Part of the demand pickup is due to disruptions in key sea lanes, such as the Suez Canal, causing shippers to convert from ocean to air. Meanwhile, the capacity picture has been mixed with some lanes having a lot of capacity while others have none. Much of this dynamic is due to Chinese e-commerce retailers Temu and Shein, which depend heavily on airfreight to execute their business models. In order to serve this booming business, some airfreight providers have pulled capacity out of more niche markets, such as flights into Latin America or Africa, and are now using those planes to serve the Asia-to-U.S. or Asia-to-Europe lanes.
Water/ports: The recent “State of Logistics Report” indicated that waterborne freight experienced a very steep decline of 64.2% in expenditures in 2023 relative to 2022. This was mostly due to muted demand, overcapacity, and a normalization from the inflated ocean rates seen during the pandemic years. After the trough of 2023, the market has been seeing significant “micro-spikes” in rates on some lanes due to constraints caused by geopolitical issues, such as the Red Sea conflict and the U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports strike. Kearney foresees a continuation of these rate hikes for the next few months. However, over the long term, the market will have to deal with the overcapacity that was built up during the height of the pandemic, which will cause rates to soften. Ultimately, however, Brogan said he did not expect to see a return to 2023 rate levels.
Third-party logistics (3PLs): The third-party logistics (3PL) sector is facing some significant challenges in 2024. Low freight rates and excess capacity could force some 3PLs to consolidate, especially if they are smaller players and rely on venture capital funding. Meanwhile, Kearney reports that there is some redefining of traditional roles going on within the 3PL-shipper ecosystem. For example, some historically asset-light 3PLs are expanding into asset-heavy services, and some shippers are trying to monetize their own logistics capabilities by marketing them externally.
Freight forwarding: Major forwarders had a shaky final quarter of 2023, seeing a decline in financial performance. To regain form, Kearney asserts that forwarders will need to increase their focus on technology, value-added services, and tiered servicing. Overall, the forwarding sector is expected to grow at slow rate in coming years, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.5% for the period of 2023–2032.
Warehousing: According to Brogan an interesting phenomenon is occurring in the warehousing market with the average asking rents continuing to rise even though vacancy rates have also increased. There are several reasons for this mixed message, according to the “State of Logistics” report, including: longer contract durations, enhanced facility features, and steady demand growth. A record-breaking level of new construction and new facilities, however, have helped to stabilize rent prices and increase vacancy rates, according to the report authors.
Path forward
What is the way forward given these uncertain times? For many shippers and carriers, a fresh look at their networks and overall supply chains may be in order. Many companies are currently reassessing their distribution networks and operations to make sure that they are optimized. In these cost-sensitive times, that may involve consolidating facilities, eliminating redundant capacity, or rebalancing inventory.
It’s important to realize, however, that network optimization should not just focus on eliminating unnecessary costs. It should also ensure that the network has the right amount of capacity to response with agility and flexibility to any future disruptions. Companies must look at their supply chain networks as a whole and think about how they can be utilized to unlock strategic advantage.