Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
Retailers are growing increasingly nervous about the chance of a December strike by rail workers’ unions, making logistics contingency plans as they say a rail stoppage could cause “enormous disruption” to the flow of goods nationwide and the U.S. economy at large.
At the time, the deal served as a temporary solution to years-long labor talks, but the clock has now started ticking again toward a possible strike, even as both sides have agreed to extend a “cooling off” period until December 8.
The union votes come at a sensitive time of year for retailers, which typically make a large chunk of their annual revenue during the winter holiday peak, but could be out of stock without rail transport. Despite that danger, the post-covid landscape is different from past years, and most U.S. stores have large inventories of goods stocked in their DCs as a hedge on pandemic supply chain turbulence. But a rail strike could still threaten other sectors, according to the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA).
“Fortunately, this year’s holiday gifts have already landed on store shelves. But an interruption to rail transportation does pose a significant challenge to getting items like perishable food products and e-commerce shipments delivered on time, and it will undoubtedly add to the inflationary pressures already hitting the U.S. economy,” RILA’s Vice President of Supply Chain, Jess Dankert, said in a release. “Retailers urge policymakers to use every tool at their disposal to avoid a self-inflicted economic disaster. Absent an agreement by December 9, Congress must act quickly to codify the tentative agreement reached in September to ensure rails and the larger supply chain remain functional and open for business.”
Also calling for Congressional intervention was the Consumer Brands Association (CBA), which noted that rail was not the only freight transportation mode—goods also flow via barges, planes, and trucks—but said its member companies could not easily transition to other options.
“The companies that manufacture and distribute everyday items like peanut butter, cooking oil, breakfast cereal, soap, canned vegetables, and household cleaners utilize rail to transport high concentrations of both raw input ingredients and finished products,” Tom Madrecki, CBA’s vice president of supply chain and logistics, said in a release. “Freight rail constitutes approximately 30 percent of total CPG transportation, but rail-centric operations rely almost exclusively on rail due to bulk commodity shipment requirements, historical distribution patterns, and manufacturing efficiencies. These operations cannot easily transition to other transportation modes, nor is there available capacity to handle huge swings in demand.”
Despite that warning, some industry analysts said that the trucking sector could potentially absorb some of the stuck rail freight if the strike occurred, although the sheer bulk of goods moved via rail would quickly use up available trucking capacity and lead to higher shipping costs.
In the face of that challenge, some shippers are already working on contingency places to shift volume to avoid getting cargo stuck in the process, Spencer Shute, principal consultant at Proxima, said in a statement. “The truckload market has been slowing down and the truck-to-load ratio is at its lowest point since the pandemic began, making the initial diversion of freight fairly easy to navigate. However, the current truckload market and demand on fuel cannot offset the volume that moves through the rail network on a daily basis. Shippers who act quickly will be able to avoid massive cost increase and limit disruption,” Shute said.
Since trucking capacity could not cover the full amount of transferred rail shipments, industry leaders will probably settle the debate without a major disruption in order to avoid the most dire implications of a strike, said Glenn Koepke, general manager of network collaboration at FourKites. “Raw materials could reach catastrophic lows, shutting down manufacturing from oil, packaging, automotive, agriculture. This would really hit hardest come January 1 as many manufacturing plants return from a holiday shutdown. The U.S. trucking capacity could never fully cover the amount of rail cargo moved on a daily basis, so this would send the trucking market into a frenzy and put the upper hand back on the carrier and 3PL side,” Koepke said in a statement.
Confronted with the closed ports, most companies can either route their imports to standard East Coast destinations and wait for the strike to clear, or else re-route those containers to West Coast sites, incurring a three week delay for extra sailing time plus another week required to truck those goods back east, Ron said in an interview at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
However, Uber Freight says its latest platform updates offer a series of mitigation options, including alternative routings, pre-booked allocation and volume during peak season, and providing daily visibility reports on shipments impacted by routings via U.S. east and gulf coast ports. And Ron said the company can also leverage its pool of some 2.3 million truck drivers who have downloaded its smartphone app, targeting them with freight hauling opportunities in the affected regions by pricing those loads “appropriately” through its surge-pricing model.
“If this [strike] continues a month, we will see severe disruptions,” Ron said. “So we can offer them alternatives. We say, if one door is closed, we can open another door? But even with that, there are no magic solutions.”
Turning around a failing warehouse operation demands a similar methodology to how emergency room doctors triage troubled patients at the hospital, a speaker said today in a session at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
There are many reasons that a warehouse might start to miss its targets, such as a sudden volume increase or a new IT system implementation gone wrong, said Adri McCaskill, general manager for iPlan’s Warehouse Management business unit. But whatever the cause, the basic rescue strategy is the same: “Just like medicine, you do triage,” she said. “The most life-threatening problem we try to solve first. And only then, once we’ve stopped the bleeding, we can move on.”
In McCaskill’s comparison, just as a doctor might have to break some ribs through energetic CPR to get a patient’s heart beating again, a failing warehouse might need to recover by “breaking some ribs” in a business sense, such as making management changes or stock write-downs.
Once the business has made some stopgap solutions to “stop the bleeding,” it can proceed to a disciplined recovery, she said. And to reach their final goal, managers can use the classic tools of people, process, and technology to improve what she called the three most important key performance indicators (KPIs): on time in full (OTIF), inventory accuracy, and staff turnover.
CSCMP EDGE attendees gathered Tuesday afternoon for an update and outlook on the truckload (TL) market, which is on the upswing following the longest down cycle in recorded history. Kevin Adamik of RXO (formerly Coyote Logistics), offered an overview of truckload market cycles, highlighting major trends from the recent freight recession and providing an update on where the TL cycle is now.
EDGE 2024, sponsored by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), is taking place this week in Nashville.
Citing data from the Coyote Curve index (which measures year-over-year changes in spot market rates) and other sources, Adamik outlined the dynamics of the TL market. He explained that the last cycle—which lasted from about 2019 to 2024—was longer than the typical three to four-year market cycle, marked by volatile conditions spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic. That cycle is behind us now, he said, adding that the market has reached equilibrium and is headed toward an inflationary environment.
Adamik also told attendees that he expects the new TL cycle to be marked by far less volatility, with a return to more typical conditions. And he offered a slate of supply and demand trends to note as the industry moves into the new cycle.
Supply trends include:
Carrier operating authorities are declining;
Employment in the trucking industry is declining;
Private fleets have expanded, but the expansion has stopped;
Truckload orders are falling.
Demand trends include:
Consumer spending is stable, but is still more service-centric and less goods-intensive;
After a steep decline, imports are on the rise;
Freight volumes have been sluggish but are showing signs of life.
CSCMP EDGE runs through Wednesday, October 2, at Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Hotel & Resort.
The relationship between shippers and third-party logistics services providers (3PLs) is at the core of successful supply chain management—so getting that relationship right is vital. A panel of industry experts from both sides of the aisle weighed in on what it takes to create strong 3PL/shipper partnerships on day two of the CSCMP EDGE conference, being held this week in Nashville.
Trust, empathy, and transparency ranked high on the list of key elements required for success in all aspects of the partnership, but there are some specifics for each step of the journey. The panel recommended a handful of actions that should take place early on, including:
Establish relationships.
For 3PLs, understand and get to the heart of the shipper’s data.
Also for 3PLs: Understand the shipper’s reason for outsourcing to a 3PL, along with the shipper’s ultimate goals.
Understand company cultures and be sure they align.
Nurture long-term relationships with good communication.
For shippers, be transparent so that the 3PL fully understands your business.
And there are also some “non-negotiables” when it comes to managing the relationship:
3PLs must demonstrate their commitment to engaging with the shipper’s personnel.
3PLs must also demonstrate their commitment to process discipline, continuous improvement, and innovation.
Shippers should ensure that they understand the 3PL’s demonstrated implementation capabilities—ask to visit established clients.
Trust—which takes longer to establish than both sides may expect.
EDGE 2024 is sponsored by the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and runs through Wednesday, October 2, at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville.
While the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' 2024 EDGE Conference & Exhibition is coming to a close on Wednesday, October 2, in Nashville, Tennessee, mark your calendars for next year's premier supply chain event.
The 2025 conference will take place in National Harbor, Maryland. To register for next year's event—and take advantage of an early-bird discount of $600**—visit https://www.cscmpedge.org/website/62261/edge-2025/.
**EDGE EARLY BIRD Terms & Conditions: Promotion is for the EDGE 2025 conference in National Harbor, Maryland. Offer valid for Premier and Basic Members only. Offer excludes Student, Young Professional, Educator, and Corporate registration types. Offer limited to one per customer. Offer is not retroactive and may not be combined with other offers. Offer is nontransferable and may not be resold. Valid through October 31, 2024.