The U.S. economy in 2023 will start with weak demand met with mostly adequate inventories. Shippers can expect sufficient freight capacity and lower rates as well as improved distribution center and warehousing availability. While service providers have been adding capacity since late 2020, the situation will be as much a result of changes in demand as it will be due to increases in supply.
A combination of factors will lead to reduced demand in 2023 as the economy falls into a recession. These factors include inflation, consumer and business spending, inventories, and a U.S. Federal Reserve Board monetary policy focused on taming inflation. There are other factors also contributing to the baseline forecast of weakness in the economy and freight demand as we begin 2023.
Mild recession in 2023
The S&P Global Market Intelligence 2023 U.S. macroeconomic baseline forecast is now indicating a recession in the first two quarters with a recovery in growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of the year. The resilience of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2022, with sustained employment and moderation in some energy prices, delayed the U.S. economy from falling into recession even as trading partner countries such as those in Europe were already in recession.
For the U.S., on an annual basis, GDP is projected to expand 0.3% from 2022 to 2023 but with the growth coming in the second half of the year after contraction in the first half. The pattern of quarterly U.S. GDP growth in 2022 was also for contraction in the first two quarters followed by growth in the third and fourth quarters. In 2023, the contraction in the first two quarters is forecasted to be greater than during 2022, and the recovery will not be as strong as second half growth was in 2022. The resilient spending of consumers in 2022 relied unsustainably on credit and drawn-down savings instead of stimulus payments as in 2021. Consumer spending is facing more headwinds as variable interest rates and interest rates on new credit continue to increase and inflation remains relatively high.
The recession forecast depends on an assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is going to maintain interest rate policy to slow demand enough to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The tightening of financial conditions takes time to work through the economy enough to reduce widespread inflation. Consequently, S&P Global Market Intelligence is forecasting that the Federal Reserve will further tighten monetary policy in the first half of 2023, keeping the economy in a period of soft demand.
Interest rate increases are reducing consumer demand by raising the cost of credit. For durable goods purchases, such as autos financed with loans or homes financed with mortgages, lender limits on consumers’ debt service-to-income ratios constrain the number of purchases that consumers can qualify for compared to a year ago. The rapid pace of mortgage rate increases in 2022 already led to a sharp downturn in single-family residential real estate markets, accompanied subsequently by a weakening in the associated furniture and home furnishings markets.
Interest rate increases also affect business, where higher costs of capital reduce firms’ capacities to afford new plant and equipment or even hold substantial safety-stock inventory. For some businesses already facing higher costs from inflation, increased capital costs can result in negative cash flow or even insolvency. Some new-entrant truckers who paid high prices for new equipment in the 2021 boom are particularly vulnerable in this higher-interest rate, lower-growth environment.
International trade to weaken
International trade is forecasted to slow in 2023 with the value of U.S. imported goods declining 1.2% for the year (compared with the 16.4% increase estimated for all of 2022 and the jump of 23.4% seen in 2021). The U.S. will still run a trade deficit, but it will shrink, as exports will not slow as much as imports. The 2023 pace of goods exported is forecasted to grow 1.4%, compared with the 19.1% growth estimated for 2022.
The economies of most U.S. trade partner countries, especially in the more advanced countries, will be in recession in 2023, which typically would weaken demand for U.S. exports overall. However, U.S. energy and agriculture exporters will continue to find good opportunities in global commodity markets disrupted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite the overall weakness in global trade demand, competitive U.S. exporters will help moderate weaker domestic demand. U.S. trade partner economic growth, measured as trade-weighted foreign GDP, is forecasted to slow from 3.1% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023. S&P Global Market Intelligence generally characterizes world growth below 2% as a recession, as it is well below potential GDP growth.
The foreign central banks are also following the U.S. Federal Reserve Board in using monetary policy to fight inflation. Also affecting U.S. goods trade in 2023 is the lingering effects of COVID-fighting policies in some countries, especially mainland China, where relaxation of restrictive policies has only recently allowed supply chain disruptions to ease. Downside risks to the global forecasts remain, as new COVID-variant waves and the impacts from the war in Ukraine continue in 2023.
Weak U.S. freight outlook
Based on the projected demand for goods and inventory levels in our recession-and-recovery baseline forecast, we expect 2023 U.S. freight volumes to start weak and end the year stronger. The duration of the painful downturn is projected to be limited, where consumption and inventory rebuilding in the second half of 2023 will lead to demand and freight growth for the year as a whole. The S&P Global Transearch baseline forecast overall is for freight tonnage to increase 1.36% for 2023.
Not all freight modes have the same prospects, however. For rail, the range of 2023 tonnage growth is from a small 0.15% increase for rail carload tonnage up to a rebound of 2.9% for intermodal rail tonnage. The intermodal rail recovery is in comparison to 2022 when systemwide congestion and threats of a strike drove customers away. The baseline trucking demand forecast is for recovery by year-end, resulting in 2023 tonnage growth of 1.54%. Air cargo tonnage growth is forecasted slower than in recent years at 3.0% due to slowing e-commerce growth. The maritime baseline forecast includes the assumed recovery of water levels in the Mississippi River System, enabling a rebound of 1.4% in tons compared to suppressed 2022 levels. These Transearch modal freight tonnage forecasts for 2023 are summarized in Figure 1.
Forecast of U.S. 2023 freight tonnage growth by mode (%) Enlarge this image
For supply chain managers, the baseline freight forecast implies a return towards having market power. Expect softening freight rates, tempered by continuing elevated wage levels and high diesel prices, which will both raise the floor on operating costs. However, after almost three years of running at capacity and operational limits, freight markets will see constraints ease in 2023, especially in the first half of the year.
It is important to note that there does remain significant risks to these baseline forecasts, including potential impacts from policy decisions and/or new shocks, whether related to COVID or other 2023 market disruptions.
Container imports at U.S. ports are seeing another busy month as retailers and manufacturers hustle to get their orders into the country ahead of a potential labor strike that could stop operations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports as soon as October 1.
Less than two weeks from now, the existing contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire. With negotiations hung up on issues like wages and automation, the ILA has threatened to put its 85,000 members on strike if a new contract is not reached by then, prompting business groups like the National Retail Federation (NRF) to call for both sides to reach an agreement.
But until such an agreement is reached, importers are playing it safe and accelerating their plans. “Import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “This has caused some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports. In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.”
The stakes are high, since a potential strike would come at a sensitive time when businesses are already facing other global supply chain disruptions, according to FourKites’ Mike DeAngelis, senior director of international solutions. “We're facing a perfect storm — with the Red Sea disruptions preventing normal access to the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal’s still-reduced capacity, an ILA strike would effectively choke off major arteries of global trade,” DeAngelis said in a statement.
Although West Coast and Canadian ports would see a surge in traffic if the strike occurs, they cannot absorb all the volume from the East and Gulf Coast ports. And the influx of freight there could cause weeks, if not months-long backlogs, even after the strikes end, reshaping shipping patterns well into 2025, DeAngelis said.
With an eye on those consequences, importers are also looking at more creative contingency plans, such as turning to air freight, west coast ports, or intermodal combinations of rail and truck modes, according to less than truckload (LTL) carrier Averitt Express.
“While some importers and exporters have already rerouted shipments to West Coast ports or delayed shipping altogether, there are still significant volumes of cargo en route to the East and Gulf Coast ports that cannot be rerouted. Unfortunately, once cargo is on a vessel, it becomes virtually impossible to change its destination, leaving shippers with limited options for those shipments,” Averitt said in a release.
However, one silver lining for coping with a potential strike is that prevailing global supply chain turbulence has already prompted many U.S. companies to stock up for bad weather, said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange.
"While the threat of strikes looms large, it’s important to note that U.S. inventories are currently strong due to the pulling forward of orders earlier this year to avoid existing disruptions. This stockpile will act as an essential buffer, mitigating the risk of container rates spiking dramatically due to the strikes,” Roeloffs said.
In addition, forecasts for a fairly modest winter peak shopping season could take the edge off the impact of a strike. “With no significant signs of peak season demand strengthening, these strikes might not have as intense an impact as historically seen. However, the overall impact will largely depend on the duration of the strikes, with prolonged disruptions having the potential to intensify the implications for supply chains, leading to more pronounced bottlenecks and greater challenges in container availability, " he said.
A coalition of freight transport and cargo handling organizations is calling on countries to honor their existing resolutions to report the results of national container inspection programs, and for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to publish those results.
Those two steps would help improve safety in the carriage of goods by sea, according to the Cargo Integrity Group (CIG), which is a is a partnership of industry associations seeking to raise awareness and greater uptake of the IMO/ILO/UNECE Code of Practice for Packing of Cargo Transport Units (2014) – often referred to as CTU Code.
According to the Cargo Integrity Group, member governments of the IMO adopted resolutions more than 20 years ago agreeing to conduct routine inspections of freight containers and the cargoes packed in them. But less than 5% of 167 national administrations covered by the agreement are regularly submitting the results of their inspections to IMO in publicly available form.
The low numbers of reports means that insufficient data is available for IMO or industry to draw reliable conclusions, fundamentally undermining their efforts to improve the safety and sustainability of shipments by sea, CIG said.
Meanwhile, the dangers posed by poorly packed, mis-handled, or mis-declared containerized shipments has been demonstrated again recently in a series of fires and explosions aboard container ships. Whilst the precise circumstances of those incidents remain under investigation, the Cargo Integrity Group says it is concerned that measures already in place to help identify possible weaknesses are not being fully implemented and that opportunities for improving compliance standards are being missed.
By the numbers, overall retail sales in August were up 0.1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 1.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year in July.
August’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.3% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.3% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year over year for the first eight months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
“These numbers show the continued resiliency of the American consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “While sales growth decelerated from last month’s pace, there is little hint of consumer spending unraveling. Households have the underpinnings to spend as recent wage gains have outpaced inflation even though payroll growth saw a slowdown in July and August. Easing inflation is providing added spending capacity to cost-weary shoppers and the interest rate cuts expected to come from the Fed should help create a more positive environment for consumers in the future.”
The U.S., U.K., and Australia will strengthen supply chain resiliency by sharing data and taking joint actions under the terms of a pact signed last week, the three nations said.
The agreement creates a “Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group” designed to build resilience in priority supply chains and to enhance the members’ mutual ability to identify and address risks, threats, and disruptions, according to the U.K.’s Department for Business and Trade.
One of the top priorities for the new group is developing an early warning pilot focused on the telecommunications supply chain, which is essential for the three countries’ global, digitized economies, they said. By identifying and monitoring disruption risks to the telecommunications supply chain, this pilot will enhance all three countries’ knowledge of relevant vulnerabilities, criticality, and residual risks. It will also develop procedures for sharing this information and responding cooperatively to disruptions.
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the group chose that sector because telecommunications infrastructure is vital to the distribution of public safety information, emergency services, and the day to day lives of many citizens. For example, undersea fiberoptic cables carry over 95% of transoceanic data traffic without which smartphones, financial networks, and communications systems would cease to function reliably.
“The resilience of our critical supply chains is a homeland security and economic security imperative,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas said in a release. “Collaboration with international partners allows us to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they occur. Our new U.S.-U.K.-Australia Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group will help ensure that our communities continue to have the essential goods and services they need, when they need them.”
A new survey finds a disconnect in organizations’ approach to maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO), as specialists call for greater focus than executives are providing, according to a report from Verusen, a provider of inventory optimization software.
Nearly three-quarters (71%) of the 250 procurement and operations leaders surveyed think MRO procurement/operations should be treated as a strategic initiative for continuous improvement and a potential innovation source. However, just over half (58%) of respondents note that MRO procurement/operations are treated as strategic organizational initiatives.
That result comes from “Future Strategies for MRO Inventory Optimization,” a survey produced by Atlanta-based Verusen along with WBR Insights and ProcureCon MRO.
Balancing MRO working capital and risk has become increasingly important as large asset-intensive industries such as oil and gas, mining, energy and utilities, resources, and heavy manufacturing seek solutions to optimize their MRO inventories, spend, and risk with deeper intelligence. Roughly half of organizations need to take a risk-based approach, as the survey found that 46% of organizations do not include asset criticality (spare parts deemed the most critical to continuous operations) in their materials planning process.
“Rather than merely seeing the MRO function as a necessary project or cost, businesses now see it as a mission-critical deliverable, and companies are more apt to explore new methods and technologies, including AI, to enhance this capability and drive innovation,” Scott Matthews, CEO of Verusen, said in a release. “This is because improving MRO, while addressing asset criticality, delivers tangible results by removing risk and expense from procurement initiatives.”
Survey respondents expressed specific challenges with product data inconsistencies and inaccuracies from different systems and sources. A lack of standardized data formats and incomplete information hampers efficient inventory management. The problem is further compounded by the complexity of integrating legacy systems with modern data management, leading to fragmented/siloed data. Centralizing inventory management and optimizing procurement without standardized product data is especially challenging.
In fact, only 39% of survey respondents report full data uniformity across all materials, and many respondents do not regularly review asset criticality, which adds to the challenges.