Q1 Outlook: Carriers will continue to compete for limited demand
Freight report predicts strength in less-than-truckload, downward trend in truckload, and higher rates for ground and express parcel in the first quarter.
Victoria Kickham, an editor at large for Supply Chain Quarterly, started her career as a newspaper reporter in the Boston area before moving into B2B journalism. She has covered manufacturing, distribution and supply chain issues for a variety of publications in the industrial and electronics sectors, and now writes about everything from forklift batteries to omnichannel business trends for Supply Chain Quarterly's sister publication, DC Velocity.
Freight carriers will compete for limited demand early in 2023, continuing a trend that marked the transportation industry at the end of last year, according to the latest Cowen/AFS Freight Index, released this week.
The report shows mixed results in a market that is generally favoring shippers. The quarterly outlook report predicts a continued downward trend in truckload (TL), increases in parcel, and “surprising” strength in less-than-truckload (LTL). TL rates are expected to decline, while surcharges and general rate increases (GRIs) will drive higher rates for parcel and LTL, according to the report.
The index is published by Cowen Research and third-party logistics services (3PL) provider AFS Logistics.
“Seven interest rate hikes since March of last year and continued inflation have taken a significant bite out of economic demand,” AFS Logistics’ CEO Tom Nightingale said in a press release announcing the Q1 report. “While the index does not show a uniform decline across all modes, looking deeper shows the effects of macroeconomic conditions playing out, with carriers competing for more limited demand while searching for ways to claw back revenue.”
Key findings from the report include:
TL: A continued decline in the truckload rate per mile index is projected to erase almost all of the gains accumulated since Q2 2021. Compared to the record-high 25.8% figure of just a year ago, the index is projected to be 11.2% in Q1 2023–an 11.6% year-over-year (YoY) decline. Inflation-driven cost increases, relatively high fuel costs, and shipper pricing power are expected to threaten truckload carrier profitability in 2023. Data from Q4 2022 indicated a falling cost per shipment, aided in part by a higher percentage of short-haul shipments, with miles per shipment declining 2.5% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).
LTL: While macroeconomic headwinds and flat weight per shipment often point to loosening LTL capacity and falling rates, the data indicate continued strength, with rates heading higher. In Q1 2023, the LTL rate per pound index is projected to reach a new high of 66.5% above the January 2018 baseline–a 1.1% QoQ increase and 20.4% YoY increase.
Parcel: The record GRIs announced at the end of 2022 are now in effect, resulting in minimal list rate differentials between FedEx and UPS across services. Both carriers also announced similar changes to an extensive list of surcharges, including levying surcharges for deliveries to remote areas and applying peak demand surcharges on a year-round basis, rather than just during the extended holiday season.
The outlook follows other recent industry reports that point to the effects of weakening economic conditions on the supply chain in the year ahead. Earlier this month, for example, German container logistics platform ContainerxChange found that inflation and a potential recession are among the top concerns of supply chain leaders worldwide, and that the industry is in for a “challenging” year ahead. Another report–from Indiana-based ACT Research–is also predicting softer conditions, although the researchers say an economic downturn in 2023 will be less severe than other recent downturns due to moderating personal consumption expenditures, slowing jobs growth, and decelerating wage inflation.
The Cowen/AFS Freight Index is based on data associated with $11 billion of annual transportation spend by AFS customers across all modes of transportation; it uses past performance and machine-learning to generate predictions for the remainder of the quarter, set against a baseline of 2018 rates for each mode.
The U.S., U.K., and Australia will strengthen supply chain resiliency by sharing data and taking joint actions under the terms of a pact signed last week, the three nations said.
The agreement creates a “Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group” designed to build resilience in priority supply chains and to enhance the members’ mutual ability to identify and address risks, threats, and disruptions, according to the U.K.’s Department for Business and Trade.
One of the top priorities for the new group is developing an early warning pilot focused on the telecommunications supply chain, which is essential for the three countries’ global, digitized economies, they said. By identifying and monitoring disruption risks to the telecommunications supply chain, this pilot will enhance all three countries’ knowledge of relevant vulnerabilities, criticality, and residual risks. It will also develop procedures for sharing this information and responding cooperatively to disruptions.
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the group chose that sector because telecommunications infrastructure is vital to the distribution of public safety information, emergency services, and the day to day lives of many citizens. For example, undersea fiberoptic cables carry over 95% of transoceanic data traffic without which smartphones, financial networks, and communications systems would cease to function reliably.
“The resilience of our critical supply chains is a homeland security and economic security imperative,” Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro N. Mayorkas said in a release. “Collaboration with international partners allows us to anticipate and mitigate disruptions before they occur. Our new U.S.-U.K.-Australia Supply Chain Resilience Cooperation Group will help ensure that our communities continue to have the essential goods and services they need, when they need them.”
Artificial intelligence (AI) tools can help users build “smart and responsive supply chains” by increasing workforce productivity, expanding visibility, accelerating processes, and prioritizing the next best action to drive results, according to business software vendor Oracle.
To help reach that goal, the Texas company last week released software upgrades including user experience (UX) enhancements to its Oracle Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing (SCM) suite.
“Organizations are under pressure to create efficient and resilient supply chains that can quickly adapt to economic conditions, control costs, and protect margins,” Chris Leone, executive vice president, Applications Development, Oracle, said in a release. “The latest enhancements to Oracle Cloud SCM help customers create a smarter, more responsive supply chain by enabling them to optimize planning and execution and improve the speed and accuracy of processes.”
According to Oracle, specific upgrades feature changes to its:
Production Supervisor Workbench, which helps organizations improve manufacturing performance by providing real-time insight into work orders and generative AI-powered shift reporting.
Maintenance Supervisor Workbench, which helps organizations increase productivity and reduce asset downtime by resolving maintenance issues faster.
Order Management Enhancements, which help organizations increase operational performance by enabling users to quickly create and find orders, take actions, and engage customers.
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) Enhancements, which help organizations accelerate product development and go-to-market by enabling users to quickly find items and configure critical objects and navigation paths to meet business-critical priorities.
Nearly one-third of American consumers have increased their secondhand purchases in the past year, revealing a jump in “recommerce” according to a buyer survey from ShipStation, a provider of web-based shipping and order fulfillment solutions.
The number comes from a survey of 500 U.S. consumers showing that nearly one in four (23%) Americans lack confidence in making purchases over $200 in the next six months. Due to economic uncertainty, savvy shoppers are looking for ways to save money without sacrificing quality or style, the research found.
Younger shoppers are leading the charge in that trend, with 59% of Gen Z and 48% of Millennials buying pre-owned items weekly or monthly. That rate makes Gen Z nearly twice as likely to buy second hand compared to older generations.
The primary reason that shoppers say they have increased their recommerce habits is lower prices (74%), followed by the thrill of finding unique or rare items (38%) and getting higher quality for a lower price (28%). Only 14% of Americans cite environmental concerns as a primary reason they shop second-hand.
Despite the challenge of adjusting to the new pattern, recommerce represents a strategic opportunity for businesses to capture today’s budget-minded shoppers and foster long-term loyalty, Austin, Texas-based ShipStation said.
For example, retailers don’t have to sell used goods to capitalize on the secondhand boom. Instead, they can offer trade-in programs swapping discounts or store credit for shoppers’ old items. And they can improve product discoverability to help customers—particularly older generations—find what they’re looking for.
Other ways for retailers to connect with recommerce shoppers are to improve shipping practices. According to ShipStation:
70% of shoppers won’t return to a brand if shipping is too expensive.
51% of consumers are turned off by late deliveries
40% of shoppers won’t return to a retailer again if the packaging is bad.
The “CMA CGM Startup Awards”—created in collaboration with BFM Business and La Tribune—will identify the best innovations to accelerate its transformation, the French company said.
Specifically, the company will select the best startup among the applicants, with clear industry transformation objectives focused on environmental performance, competitiveness, and quality of life at work in each of the three areas:
Shipping: Enabling safer, more efficient, and sustainable navigation through innovative technological solutions.
Logistics: Reinventing the global supply chain with smart and sustainable logistics solutions.
Media: Transform content creation, and customer engagement with innovative media technologies and strategies.
Three winners will be selected during a final event organized on November 15 at the Orange Vélodrome Stadium in Marseille, during the 2nd Artificial Intelligence Marseille (AIM) forum organized by La Tribune and BFM Business. The selection will be made by a jury chaired by Rodolphe Saadé, Chairman and CEO of the Group, and including members of the executive committee representing the various sectors of CMA CGM.
Businesses were preparing to deal with the effects of the latest major storm of the 2024 hurricane season as Francine barreled toward the Gulf Coast Wednesday.
Louisiana was experiencing heavy rain and wind gusts at midday as the storm moved northeast through the Gulf and was expected to pick up speed. The state will bear the brunt of Francine’s wind, rain, and storm damage, according to forecasters at weather service provider AccuWeather.
“AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting a storm surge of 6-10 feet along much of the Louisiana coast with a pocket of 10-15 feet on some of the inland bays in south-central Louisiana,” the company reported in an afternoon update Wednesday.
Businesses and supply chains were prepping for delays and disruptions from the storm earlier this week. Supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc said the storm will have a “significant impact” on a wide range of industries along the Gulf Coast, including aerospace, life sciences, manufacturing, oil and gas, and high-tech, among others. In a statement, Resilinc said energy companies had evacuated personnel and suspended operations on oil platforms as of Tuesday. In addition, the firm said its proprietary data showed the storm could affect nearly 11,000 manufacturing, warehousing, distribution, fabrication, and testing sites across the region, putting at risk more than 57,000 parts used in everyday items and the manufacture of more than 4,000 products.
Francine, which was expected to make landfall as a category 2 hurricane, according to AccuWeather, follows the devastating effects of two storms earlier this summer: Hurricane Beryl, which hit the Texas coast in July, and Hurricane Debby, which caused $28 billion in damage and economic loss after hitting the Southeast on August 5.