There are a number of reasons why Incoterms need to be blown apart and rebuilt from the ground up. This is the first in a series of three articles addressing today’s challenging Incoterms reality and our opportunities for change.
John Vogt is currently the president of WWBC LLC, an independent consulting company for Strategy and Global Leadership, having retired as Visiting Assistant Professor in the College of Business MBA Program for the University of Houston Downtown.
It’s time to blow up Incoterms,1 or “International Commercial Terms,” the shorthand used in place of contract language for trade agreements. Incoterms currently are a confusing mess of contradictory, inconsistent kludges that almost certainly cost the world dearly in lost speed, efficiency, and productivity. Indeed, research suggests most professionals do not understand or apply Incoterms with any fidelity. The resulting inappropriately applied Incoterms create risks and costs where none need be, and misalignments between expected performance and Incoterms choices mean that many logistics cycles are completed through goodwill alone, rather than through rigorous application of any standard. The only thing saving Incoterms from being a total loss is the fact that they are far better than having nothing at all.
Incoterms, or “International Commercial Terms,” were designed and published by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) over 80 years ago and were made to simplify trade. Prior to Incoterms, each contract had to be written to specify every aspect of the trade, such as which party was responsible for arranging and paying for all the logistics of moving the product from seller to buyer, and when the buyer would take responsibility for the goods. The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) designed the Incoterms to serve as a universal “shorthand” for lots of long contract language across millions of trade agreements, which meant that the contract could be shorter but also that the logistics personnel effecting the contract terms could, in theory, simply check the Incoterms rule to know what responsibilities they had to fulfill under the sale.2
Incoterms define the obligations of the buyer and seller to deliver the goods in a trade. In so doing, they address the roles, responsibilities, costs, and actions of the buyer and seller to perform the logistics of moving the goods to satisfy the contract. Each rule is a three-letter designation starting with either E, F, C or D. The “E” rule deals with goods that are exchanged at the seller’s facility, the “F” rules deal with goods that are exchanged from the seller’s facility up to (and including) the port of international departure, the “C” rules deal with goods exchanged at either the port of export or the port of import (or in between), and the “D” rules deal with the goods that are exchanged upon arrival in the buyer’s country. Incoterms are accepted globally as the trade rules for both domestic and international movements.
The original Incoterms were such an improvement over having none at all that the U.S. decided to create a similar (and incompatible) standard under the Universal Commercial Code (UCC) adopted by all U.S. states but one (Louisiana).3 These UCC rules used nearly identical language to the Incoterms rules to mean quite different things that were more loosely defined, a fact that has enormously confused matters for logistics personnel both domestic and foreign to the U.S.4 To make matters worse, the UCC rules haven’t been updated at all, while the ICC spent the next eight decades updating the Incoterms to accommodate the practices of the day, but in a way that clung to legacy language and structures. These include introducing free carrier (FCA), a rule that seems to do the work of three rules with only context clues to differentiate, additional “C” rules that differ mainly by whether you want to use them on water or not, separate “D” rules that differ only by whether one party or another unloads the goods on arrival, and shifting the meanings, names, and usage of every other rule along the way.5
[FIGURE 1] Progression of Incoterms1 from 1936 to 2010
1936
1953
1967
1974
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
EXW
EXW
EXW
EXW
EXW
EXW
EXW
EXW
FRC
FCA
FCA
FCA
FCA
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FAS
FOB
FOB/ FOR/FOT
FOB/
FOR
FOT
FOB/
FOR/ FOT/ FOB Airport
FOB/ FOR/ FOT/ FOB Airport
FOB
FOB
FOB
FOB
C&F
C&F
C&F
C&F
C&F
CFR
CFR
CFR
CFR
CIF
CIF
CIF
CIF
CIF
CIF/CIP
CIF/CIP
CIF/CIP
CIF/CIP
CPT/DCP
CPT/DCP
CPT
CPT
CPT
CPT
CPT
CPT
EXS
EXS
EXS
EXS
EXS
DES
DES
EXQ
EXQ
EXQ
EXQ
EXQ
DEQ
DEQ
DAT
DPU
DAF
DAF
DAF/DCP
DAF
DAF/DDU
DAF/DDU
DAP
DAP
Delivered
DDP
DDP
DCP
DDP
DDP
DDP
DDP
Source: Adapted from ICC Incoterms 2010 Publication No 715E
Incoterms is a registered trade mark by the International Chamber of Commerce.
Each incarnation of Incoterms is a new “Frankenstein’s monster” of additions for the sake of modernity operating alongside concessions to the inertia of historical rules, such that neither modernists nor traditionalists could hope to be satisfied. The result is an ever-increasing thickness of the Incoterms rule book trying descriptively to solve the issues of the Incoterms, a ruleset that is supposed to be transparent and to lubricate trade. The official 2020 rulebook, which features the same number of rules as the 2010 version (with some minor changes), is now about 50% larger but has not addressed the fundamental issues bedeviling them.
Our research shows these are just some of the major issues with today’s Incoterms. The extreme proliferation of international trade in the decades since its first creation only serves to increase the stakes and amplify the costs. Any improvement to the application of Incoterms would reverberate across millions of trades each year, repeated every year thereafter.
Though increased industrywide training could help, the only true remedy is the replacement of the current Incoterms with a logically consistent, simple, and modular system that will be easy to learn, understand, and apply. This can be done by throwing away the existing structure and considering the necessary elements of a set of terms of trade and the options for rule flexibility that will cover every practitioner’s need without distortion. Our proposed ruleset includes an extreme minimum number of flexible rules that give supply chain managers maximum power with a minimum of complexity.
The next article in this series will the problems with Incoterms in greater depth. The third and final article will offer solutions based on our published research and practical realities in the field.
Notes:
1. Incoterms a legally registered trademark of the International Chamber of Commerce.
2. C. Căruntu and M.L. Lăpăduşi, “Complex Issues regarding the Role and Importance of Internationally Codified Rules and Incoterms,” Petroleum-Gas University of Ploiesti Bulletin, Economic Sciences Series, 2010. 62(1).
3. J.A. Spanogle, “Incoterms and UCC Article 2—Conflicts and Confusions,” The International Lawyer, 1997. 31(1): p. 111-132.
4. J. Vogt and J. Davis, “The State of Incoterm Research,” Transportation Journal, 2020. 59(3): p. 304-324.
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
The practice consists of 5,000 professionals from Accenture and from Avanade—the consulting firm’s joint venture with Microsoft. They will be supported by Microsoft product specialists who will work closely with the Accenture Center for Advanced AI. Together, that group will collaborate on AI and Copilot agent templates, extensions, plugins, and connectors to help organizations leverage their data and gen AI to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and drive growth, they said on Thursday.
Accenture and Avanade say they have already developed some AI tools for these applications. For example, a supplier discovery and risk agent can deliver real-time market insights, agile supply chain responses, and better vendor selection, which could result in up to 15% cost savings. And a procure-to-pay agent could improve efficiency by up to 40% and enhance vendor relations and satisfaction by addressing urgent payment requirements and avoiding disruptions of key services
Likewise, they have also built solutions for clients using Microsoft 365 Copilot technology. For example, they have created Copilots for a variety of industries and functions including finance, manufacturing, supply chain, retail, and consumer goods and healthcare.
Another part of the new practice will be educating clients how to use the technology, using an “Azure Generative AI Engineer Nanodegree program” to teach users how to design, build, and operationalize AI-driven applications on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. The online classes will teach learners how to use AI models to solve real-world problems through automation, data insights, and generative AI solutions, the firms said.
“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Accenture to help our mutual customers develop AI-first business processes responsibly and securely, while helping them drive market differentiation,” Judson Althoff, executive vice president and chief commercial officer at Microsoft, said in a release. “By bringing together Copilots and human ambition, paired with the autonomous capabilities of an agent, we can accelerate AI transformation for organizations across industries and help them realize successful business outcomes through pragmatic innovation.”
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."