When its original logistics and procurement model threatened to constrain its rapid growth, the U.K.-based coffee retailer went all-in: new leadership, new supply chain strategy, new logistics provider, and new software. Here's how it all paid off.
Costa Express was created to serve this need in 2011 when the Whitbread Group, the largest hospitality company in the United Kingdom and owner of Costa Coffee, acquired Coffee Nation, a provider of self-service coffee concessions. The new company, Costa Express, partners on a revenue-sharing basis with retailers that service public places like airports, railway stations, hospitals, universities, convenience stores, gas stations, and offices, enabling them to profit from the growing consumer demand for premium coffee "on the go" as well as the strong Costa brand. (Costa Coffee is the largest coffee retailer in the U.K.) Costa Express provides its partners with up-to-date, self-service coffee machines and regularly restocks the coffee and supplies, so very little investment is required to get the business up and running.
After achieving early success in its first year, Costa Express set ambitious plans to increase the number of machines in operation—what it refers to as its "estate" —from 900 to 3,000 by 2016, and at the same time to expand internationally.
For months after the 2011 launch, the business was pushed to the limit as the existing machine estate was rebranded from Coffee Nation to Costa Express, and new partners signed on. Because it was necessary to justify Whitbread's UK £60-million investment, the business was feeling the pressure to grow rapidly.
In April 2012, the company realized that in order to deal with all the expected growth, it would need to make some changes to the way it managed its supply chain. That was when I joined Costa Express, specifically to fill the newly created position of supply chain manager and to join a strengthened operational leadership team. Prior to that time, there had been no dedicated supply chain function in the company. Instead, traditional purchasing and logistics activities were split between the finance and engineering teams.
One of my first tasks was to identify three fundamental supply chain functions that were driving the business. These were:
Managing and replenishing coffee-making ingredients to partner sites
Procuring and maintaining spare-parts inventory
Effectively managing the process of procuring new Costa Express machines and preparing them to be installed at customer sites
For the purposes of this article, I will describe how we managed the first and most critical of these three functions: managing the ingredients supply chain.
Drawbacks of the old model
Costa Express's distinctive model involves pushing coffee-making supplies out to our partner sites free of charge, and then sharing the revenue collected. When I joined the company, the finance team carried out this replenishment activity with support from trained employees known as "Brand Guardians," who work in the field. The Brand Guardians' job was to train partners, replenish stock for them, and give them advice on how to maximize sales and improve the coffee experience for the customer.
In order to sustain this unique model during a phase of significant growth, Costa Express would need tight control over and visibility into its supply chain. Central to this would be an awareness of exactly when and how much stock needs to be replenished at each partner site, so that money would not be wasted on excess inventory or unnecessary logistics activities. That meant Costa Express would need to understand not just aggregated order information, but also the size and frequency of the individual orders.
To support this need for order-line-level detail, Costa Express's self-service coffee bars were equipped with integrated telemetry that provided real-time reporting on machine performance and beverage sales. These systems had a twofold purpose: to prevent waste and theft, and to improve service by ensuring that the bars were always being stocked to meet demand.
The system that informed replenishment decisions comprised thousands of linked spreadsheets that contained detailed information for each site and product. Based on the size of our partner network, the system had multiplied to host more than 50,000 replenishment combinations and was edging toward 100,000 as new sites were added. One thing that greatly concerned me: Despite having invested in coffee machines with built-in programs designed to provide real-time sales data, Costa Express could not take advantage of this capability because our spreadsheet system could not extract, consolidate, and present up-to-the-minute data.
The next area I examined within the ingredients supply chain was logistics. Our current logistics provider was furnishing a full service: purchasing all of our ingredients, managing direct relationships with the suppliers, and invoicing for the full product value and logistics costs at point of delivery. Although this setup might have worked well in the beginning, it meant we had very few direct relationships with ingredients suppliers, making it difficult to negotiate and communicate changes we wanted to make as our business grew.
It became clear to me that in order to deliver sustained growth, we would have to transform our supply chain and redefine roles within the wider business ... and quickly!
A fresh start
During my first month (April 2012), it was clear that I needed to make some changes without delay. These initial changes would lay the foundation for the rest of the strategic changes that would be necessary. I therefore immediately moved responsibility for partner replenishment from finance to the new supply chain team. This change would ensure that partner replenishment would receive the right amount of attention during the transformation. I next undertook a review of providers of replenishment and demand planning software, which included looking at how we could tap into our valuable telemetry data and use this to maintain the inventories at partner sites.
In June 2012, I initiated a tender process designed to seek out a new logistics partner. This process included reviewing relationships with suppliers and assessing whether Costa Express should start to purchase ingredients directly from suppliers.
By November 2012, my team and I had come up with both a new replenishment planning tool and a new logistics provider, Howard Tenens, and planned to have them both up and running by January 2013. As part of this plan, we had decided to start purchasing ingredients directly. By doing so, we would be able to negotiate and control our costs more effectively as our volumes grew.
Howard Tenens collects stock from suppliers (including coffee beans, flavored syrups, cups, lids, stirrers, and napkins), stores it in a central warehouse, and delivers stock as needed to Costa Express partners. Besides enabling us to purchase ingredients directly, having a new logistics partner has simplified our logistics model. Our previous model was more distributed, with one central warehouse and nine regional ones. Now that we hold everything in one central location, we are able to make more next-day deliveries. Another advantage is that Howard Tenens runs most of its fleet on either dual fuel (combined gas and diesel) or biomethane fuel. This means we are on track to save approximately 73 metric tons of carbon emissions in our first year working together. We have also started working with another division of Howard Tenens to support our coffee machine-installation logistics.
Despite initial reservations within the business, I was adamant it would be best to implement these changes all at once instead of sequentially, challenging the conventional wisdom. This meant that by January 2013 we were in the midst of three major supply chain changes: a new IT system, a new logistics provider, and a new purchasing process.
As part of the new IT system, we chose a software application from ToolsGroup called SO99+ that manages key supply chain planning processes, including demand planning, demand sensing, and inventory optimization. We chose it because it could help us improve forecast accuracy while at the same time maintaining high customer service levels with less inventory. This went live in January 2013 as planned and was fundamental to the enabling of other changes involving both people and processes.
Before implementing that application, Costa Express had used the spreadsheet system to estimate how much inventory to supply to each site, using a calculation based on current stock holding and average cup sales. The new system allows us to compare the actual sales data to the levels of stock on hand at the sites, a feature that gives far better visibility and control. The system uses sales data (produced every four minutes) collected from each of the 3,000 machines to identify trends and forecast future demand. It then calculates how the demand is likely to vary, and therefore how much backup stock must be kept at each site. Finally, the system creates a schedule for resupplying the right amount of inventory to each site in order to maximize availability without overstocking. All of this is done automatically and in the cloud.
The new system allowed the business to make an important fourth change: redefining the role of the Brand Guardians. Because the software was so much faster, more accurate, and easier to use than the old spreadsheet system, these people were able to take on the new role of Brand Excellence Advisors, whose main responsibility today is helping partners sell more effectively and deliver a great customer experience. With this new role, the Advisors help to increase sales, improve service quality, troubleshoot if necessary, and, in general, enhance the overall Costa Express experience for the customer.
Savings in six months
Just six months after going live with the new IT system, new third-party logistics provider, and new purchasing processes, we measured some very significant operational savings, including:
20-percent reduction in field stock being held at partner sites
50-percent fewer delivery refusals by our partners
Centralized stock-holding locations reduced from nine to one
Developed direct purchasing relationships with 15 suppliers providing 50+ stock-keeping units (SKUs)
Negotiated new product prices and pack sizes, leading to a reduction in the purchase price of some items
30-percent reduction in annual logistics operating costs, and associated annual carbon dioxide (CO2) savings of 70 metric tons
Costa Express has been able to significantly reduce the quantity and value of inventory at each partner site. Previously, the average site was expected to stock well over 20 cases of various items. This has now been reduced to approximately 12 cases, just one case of each item. (Although we have approximately 50 SKUs, individual sites typically use 15 or fewer. For example, there are three different types of stirrers, but a site will use only one.)
Costa Express also needs to make managing stock as simple as possible, employees can focus on serving customers and increasing sales. This new system has given our partners the confidence that their stock will be replenished efficiently and in a timely manner, so that they can get on with running their businesses.
Along with the changes to the Brand Excellence Advisor role, statistics show that our Net Promoter Score, a popular customer-loyalty metric, grew by more than 10 percent in a six-month period. Furthermore, overall satisfaction and reuse scores (the likelihood of a customer using our services again) grew by 5 percentage points, and recommendation levels (the likelihood of a customer recommending our services) were up 6 percentage points.
A foundation for sustainable growth
When Whitbread acquired Coffee Nation, the target was to have 3,000 machines in place by 2016. The changes made in Costa Express's supply chain, including the implementation of the new software, has enabled it to achieve this target in 2013, a full three years ahead of schedule. With the help of our new systems, processes, and roles, we are confident that we can grow internationally while maintaining confidence in the brand with top quality and great service. Already, I have been part of a team that has helped Costa Express to install new machines in Poland, under the "Coffee Heaven" brand, and we will soon introduce Costa Express to Ireland.
The company is also about to embark on two important new projects. Firstly, Costa Express is now part of a new business-to-business division called Costa Enterprises. I will be responsible for managing an enlarged supply chain for Costa Enterprises, which comprises more than 7,000 locations worldwide and dispenses more than 100 million cups of coffee a year.
Secondly, in January we launched our new CEM-200 "intelligent" coffee station concession, based on advanced technology from Intel, Microsoft, and Bsquare. These multimedia machines will be placed in high-end properties, starting in Dubai. I will be responsible for the supply chain elements of bringing this multimillion-pound innovation to the U.K. and international markets. Along with those projects, we are also reviewing ToolsGroup's software with an eye toward using it to manage Costa Express's spare-parts supply chain, which utilizes three different coffee machine manufacturers, each at different stages of the product lifecycle.
Quite simply, without the changes implemented throughout the Costa Express supply chain, the U.K. business would have struggled to grow at the pace it has. Costa Express's supply chain systems are now firmly situated to sustain both U.K. and international growth. We have turned supplier and customer relationships into true team efforts. Partners at both ends of the Costa Express supply chain are engaged. Suppliers understand Costa Express's requirements, and we work together to mutual advantage. Partners who maintain the machines and sell the coffee are experiencing the kind of efficient, worry-free service levels that allow them to focus on running their businesses. With this foundation in place, I believe we are solidly positioned to sustain our growth while maintaining a trusted and highly respected premium coffee brand.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.