Importers are preparing for another wave of disruption over the July 4th holiday week as about 7,500 dock workers representing the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) continued on Monday with their third day of strike, impacting Canada’s Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert.
The labor turmoil arrives just as North American retailers and manufacturers breathed a sigh of relief over last month’s proposed solution to U.S. West Coast port delays that were triggered by a parallel set of work slowdowns. A solution to that clash gained promise after the ILWU and the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) on June 15 reached a tentative agreement on a new contract, after workers had been reporting to their jobs without a deal since their previous contract expired in July 2022.
According to the online container trading platform Container xChange, that Canadian strike could trigger a domino effect hitting both Asia and the U.S., specifically cramping the automobile, container, breakbulk, and project cargo business sectors. Delays caused by the strike will slow down the vessel transit and dwell times at both ports, creating cost increases which are often passed on to customers, leading to higher prices for goods, the German firm said.
“The strike could have a significant impact on the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, which are crucial gateways for Canada's foreign trade, especially with Asia,” Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange, said in a release. “These ports handle a substantial portion of Canada's imports and exports. The disruption caused by the strike can lead to delays, congestion, and inefficiencies in the movement of cargo, affecting various industries and businesses that rely on the smooth functioning of the supply chain.”
The strike comes during a busy week of organized labor actions in the U.S. as well, such as news that members of Teamsters Local 767 who work at parcel delivery giant UPS Inc. announced they will hold a practice picket on July 5, ahead of the July 31 expiration of their contract. Also Monday, striking Amazon delivery drivers and dispatchers from Palmdale, California, extended their picket line to a fourth Amazon warehouse in the region, demanding that the e-commerce giant stop its alleged “unfair labor practices.”
2024 was expected to be a bounce-back year for the logistics industry. We had the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and the economy was proving to be more resilient than expected, defying those prognosticators who believed a recession was imminent.
While most of the economy managed to stabilize in 2024, the logistics industry continued to see disruption and changes in international trade. World events conspired to drive much of the narrative surrounding the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, a diminished reliance on China as a source for goods reduced some of the international trade flow from that manufacturing hub. Some of this trade diverted to other Asian nations, while nearshoring efforts brought some production back to North America, particularly Mexico.
Meanwhile trucking in the United States continued its 2-year recession, highlighted by weaker demand and excess capacity. Both contributed to a slow year, especially for truckload carriers that comprise about 90% of over-the-road shipments.
Labor issues were also front and center in 2024, as ports and rail companies dealt with threats of strikes, which resulted in new contracts and increased costs. Labor—and often a lack of it—continues to be an ongoing concern in the logistics industry.
In this annual issue, we bring a year-end perspective to these topics and more. Our issue is designed to complement CSCMP’s 35th Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released in June, and includes updates that were presented at the CSCMP EDGE conference held in October. In addition to this overview of the market, we have engaged top industry experts to dig into the status of key logistics sectors.
Hopefully as we move into 2025, logistics markets will build on an improving economy and strong consumer demand, while stabilizing those parts of the industry that could use some adrenaline, such as trucking. By this time next year, we hope to see a full recovery as the market fulfills its promise to deliver the needs of our very connected world.
The federal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) yesterday proposed a rule that would mandate some surface transportation owners and operators, including those running pipelines and railroads, to meet certain cyber risk management and reporting requirements.
The new rule would require:
Owner/operators of pipelines and/or railroads that have a higher cybersecurity risk profiles to establish and maintain a comprehensive cyber risk management program;
Owner/operators that are currently required to report significant physical security concerns to TSA to also report cybersecurity incidents to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and
Higher-risk pipeline owner/operators to designate a physical security coordinator and report significant physical security concerns to TSA.
"TSA has collaborated closely with its industry partners to increase the cybersecurity resilience of the nation's critical transportation infrastructure," TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a release. "The requirements in the proposed rule seek to build on this collaborative effort and further strengthen the cybersecurity posture of surface transportation stakeholders. We look forward to industry and public input on this proposed regulation."
The notice came a week after a White House representative warned the trucking freight industry that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has remained the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S. government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks. The briefing came from a member of the administration’s Office of the National Cyber Director, in an address to attendees at the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA)’s Cybersecurity Conference.
“In January, the National Cyber Director testified in front of Congress along with colleagues from CISA, NSA, and the FBI about this threat from the PRC, dubbed Volt Typhoon,” speaker Stephen Viña said in his remarks. “Volt Typhoon conducted cyber operations focused not on financial gain, espionage, or state secrets but on developing deep access to our critical infrastructure. This includes the energy sector transportation systems, among many others. A prolonged interruption to these critical services could disrupt our ability to mobilize in the event of a national emergency or conflict and can create panic among our citizens. Ultimately, if trucking stops, America stops.”
The port worker strike that began yesterday on Canada’s west coast could cost that country $765 million a day in lost trade, according to the ALPS Marine analysis by Russell Group, a British data and analytics company.
Specifically, the labor strike at the ports of Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and Fraser-Surrey will hurt the commodities of furniture, metal products, meat products, aluminum, and clothing. But since the strike action is focused on stopping containers and general cargo, it will not slow operations in grain vessels or cruise ships, the firm said.
“The Canadian port strike is a microcosm of many of the issues that are impacting Western economies today; protection against automation, better work-life balance, and a cost-of-living crisis,” Russell Group Managing Director Suki Basi said in a release. “Taken together, these pressures are creating a cocktail of connected risk for countries, business, individuals and entire sectors such as marine insurance, which help to mitigate cargo exposures.”
The strike is also sending ripples through neighboring U.S. ports, which are hustling to absorb the diverted cargo, according to David Kamran, assistant vice president for Moody’s Ratings.
“The recurrence of strikes at Canadian seaports is positive for U.S. ports that may gain cargo throughput, depending on the strike duration,” Kamran said in a statement. “The current dispute at Vancouver is another example of the resistance of port unions to automation and the social risk involved with implementing these technologies. Persistent disruption in Canadian port access would strengthen the competitive position of US West Coast ports over the medium-term, as shippers seek to diversify cargo away from unreliable gateways.”
The strike is also affected rail movements, according to ocean cargo carrier Maersk. CN has stopped all international intermodal shipments bound for the west coast ports of Prince Rupert, Robbank, Centerm, Vanterm, and Fraser Surrey Docks. And CPKC has stopped acceptance of all export loads and pre-billed empties destined for Vancouver ports.
Connected with the turmoil, Maersk has suspended its import and export carrier demurrage and detention clock for most affected operations. The ultimate duration of the strike is unknown, but the situation is “rapidly evolving” as talks continue between the Longshore Workers Union (ILWU 514) and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA), Maersk said.
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Labor strikes can stop supply chains in their tracks unless companies take steps to build up resiliency.
Strikes and potential strikes have plagued the supply chain over the last few years. An analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Economics Policy Institute concluded that the number of workers involved in major strike activity increased by 280% in 2023 from 2022. Currently, the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are facing the threat of another dockworker strike after they return to the negotiating table in January to attempt to resolve the remaining wage and automation issues. Similarly, Boeing is continuing to contend with a machinists strike.
Strikes, or even the threat of a strike, can cause significant disruptions across the global supply chain and have a massive economic impact. For example, when U.S. railroads were facing the threat of a strike in 2022, many companies redirected their cargo to avoid work stoppages and unhappy customers. If the strike had occurred, it would have had a massive economic impact. The Association of American Railroads (AAR), estimated that the economic impact of a railroad strike could be $2 billion per day.
Similarly, although the U.S. West Coast ports avoided a strike in 2023, the labor negotiations caused companies to reroute freight. For example, companies with locations on the East Coast went through the Panama Canal instead of having their cargo land at West Coast ports. As a result, West Coast ports’ market share dipped during this timeframe. Now as the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports try to finalize negotiations to seal the deal with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), companies are searching for alternative routes and transferring their shipments back to West Coast ports. The economic impact of the strike is estimated at $3.8 to $4.5 billion per day by J.P Morgan.
Labor negotiations also threaten to further exacerbate inflationary trends, which have been a key concern across the supply chain. The ILA and port operators reportedly reached a tentative agreement to increase wages by 62% over the next six years. Similarly, the Boeing machinist strike is mainly related to a request for a 40% pay raise, with machinists recently rejecting a proposed 35% increase. These demands come as companies and consumers across the spectrum are resisting increased costs.
Nor are these strikes completely focused on pay increases. The ILA is also demanding a total ban on the further automation of cranes, gates, and container movements that are used in the loading or loading of freight. This issue still remains unresolved. Such a ban would not only increase costs, it would also threaten the competitiveness as the U.S. ports, which are already some of the least competitive in the world. According to the Wall Street Journal, L.A. and Long Beach ports are about half as productive as China’s best port in terms of average container moves per hour.
Creating a Resilient Supply Chain
Labor unrest and strikes have caused executives to open their eyes to the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) in their supply chains. Many are responding to the volatility and disruptions by working to create more resilient supply chains.
No company can thrive in a supply chain disruption-ridden environment if it is not prepared to pivot as conditions change. However, preparation alone will not suffice. To thrive in a VUCA world, companies should be ahead of changing conditions or perhaps flip the situation on its head to become the disruptor instead of the disrupted. As the competition struggles to maintain customer service levels, profitability, and working capital requirements in the face of disruptions, companies with a more resilient supply chain will gain market share.
There are several strategies to create a resilient and proactive supply chain. The most successful approaches include rethinking strategies, upgrading business processes, and automating and utilizing advanced technologies. The bottom line is to create resiliency/flexibility, quick responsiveness, and upgraded performance.
Rethinking Strategies
Old strategies will no longer suffice in this more volatile world. For example, producing in China to reduce labor costs provides no resiliency when chokepoints arise in the global supply chain and/or as geopolitical risks surge. For example, the Red Sea crisis has created a supply chain chokepoint, delaying goods transiting from northeast Asia to the East Coast of the U.S. and Europe. Container ships have re-routed around the southern tip of Africa, adding cost, time, and other risks to the trip. As labor disputes and/or strikes arise, the risk increases that the product will get stuck or delayed in transit. If there are strikes on the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, ships will have to divert to the West Coast and be shipped across the country, adding time and cost. By moving manufacturing closer to customers and consumers through reshoring, nearshoring, and vertical integration efforts, these risks are mitigated. If local disruptions do occur, companies can recover quicker due to the shorter distances, quicker lead times, and greater control.
Thus, proactive executives are rethinking their manufacturing and supply chain network. For example, Ascential Medical & Life Sciences last year expanded its domestic manufacturing footprint, opening a 100,000-square-foot facility in Minnesota that will specialize in developing custom manufacturing machinery and solutions for medical and life science companies. The facility is part of a broader reshoring effort by the company.
In a similar vein, many companies, such as GM, Samsung, and Dell, have followed a nearshoring (also called friendshoring) strategy to Mexico. By moving closer to customers, they not only are more resilient but also can take advantage of trade agreements, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), as well as lower regulations and costs.
In addition to moving manufacturing, companies are also diversifying their supply base. They are pursuing strategies such as adding backup sources of supply, establishing strategic partnerships and joint ventures, and vertically integrating their supply chain.
Upgrade Business Processes
The most successful companies are aggressively upgrading strategic processes to support resiliency, customer success, and profitability. For example, rolling out an SIOP (Sales, Inventory, Operations Planning) process can help companies respond more quickly and proactively to changing customer demand and/or supply chain disruptions. Similarly, companies that have upgraded their demand, production, and replenishment planning processes are able to provide customers with higher service levels while also freeing up cash by reducing unnecessary inventory. These upgraded planning processes also improve margins by increasing efficiencies and productivity while reducing waste.
For example, a manufacturer of health care products utilized a SIOP process to better predict revenue and to create a better operational rhythm. The company’s demand plan was translated into machine capacity and critical raw material requirements. By taking this step, the company became aware that it needed to get a backup supplier to avoid a potential critical chokepoint in the supply chain. At the time, the manufacturer was purchasing all of its most important material from Brazil. Due to geopolitical risk in the region, there was the potential for supply chain disruption. To mitigate this risk and ensure reliability, the manufacturer began sourcing 20% of its material requirements from a backup supplier in the United States. Fast-forward a few years, and there was a port strike that made it difficult to receive the materials from Brazil. The manufacturer’s SIOP process provided a forecast of what was required to bridge the supply gap during the disruption. Because of the already existing relationship, the backup supplier was willing to ramp up volume to cover the manufacturer’s supply gap, even though the supplier was receiving an overload of requests from other companies. As a result, the manufacturer was able to maintain supply of this critical material and continue to meet its customer service levels. While its competition struggled, the health care manufacture was able to grow its revenue by 15%.
Automate & Digitize
Technology can also help companies respond better to disruptions and volatility. For example, advanced planning systems can help planners can quickly pivot with changing conditions, such as strikes. The most advanced of these systems will be equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities that will recommend changes on the fly to satisfy customer needs in the most profitable and least risky manner. For example, as strikes arise, the system will quickly assess changing conditions and recommend that the manufacturer move demand to plants and/or routes not impacted by the strike. The planning systems will also provide the planners with a better picture of requirements so that they can change production plans and ensure high service levels for customers.
In the same fashion, companies that automate their manufacturing processes, such as by using robotic welders, can more flexibly respond to changing customer requirements change while also mitigating costs. Similarly, companies that use additive manufacturing technologies can produce and customize on demand. By using robotics and automation equipment, manufacturers can run lights out, thereby increasing output and flexibility, while reducing cost. Therefore, if a strike occurs at the manufacturer, some level of production is likely to occur, as long as they can assign a resource to keep the robotics and automated equipment running.
In logistics, advanced technologies can seamlessly sort, package, and move products. These technologies can help companies quickly respond to changing conditions so that packages can be re-routed at any time. Similarly, transportation planning can use predictive models to optimize freight costs and rerouting shipments through the global supply chain in response to changing conditions, thus ensuring timely deliveries. For example, as strikes arise, the system will quickly assess a company’s transportation network, evaluate alternative routes, and recommend the optimal one. Changes will also be made to current routes for goods in transit so that they meet the customer due dates at the lowest cost.
Delivering Bottom Line Business Results
The bottom line is to create a resilient supply chain and craft tomorrow’s supply chain today. Companies that invest smartly in the future will be prepared to take market share as disruptions occur. There will be more opportunity than ever before for those that rethink strategies, upgrade business processes, and automate and digitize their end-to-end supply chain.
About the author: Lisa Anderson is founder and president of LMA Consulting Group Inc., a consulting firm that specializes in manufacturing strategy and end-to-end supply chain transformation that maximizes the customer experience and enables profitable, scalable, dramatic business growth. She recently released SIOP (Sales Inventory Operations Planning): Creating Predictable Revenue & EBITDA Growth that can be found at https://www.lma-consultinggroup.com/siop-book/.
“The latest data continues to show some positive developments for the freight market. However, there remain sequential declines nationwide, and in most regions,” Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics, said in a release. “Over the last two quarters, volume and spend contractions have lessened, but we’re waiting for clear evidence that the market has reached the bottom.”
By the numbers, shipments were down 1.9% compared to the previous quarter while spending dropped 1.4%. This was the ninth consecutive quarterly decrease in volume, but the smallest drop in more than a year.
Truck freight conditions varied greatly by region in the third quarter. In the West, spending was up 4.4% over the previous quarter and volume increased 1.1%. Meanwhile, in the Southeast spending declined 3.3% and shipments were down 3.0%.
“It’s a positive sign that spending contracted less than shipments. With diesel fuel prices lower, the fact that pricing didn’t erode more tells me the market is getting healthier,” Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA), said in the release.
The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment, which processes more than $42 billion in freight payments annually for shippers and carriers across the U.S. The Index insights are provided to U.S. Bank customers to help them make business decisions and discover new opportunities.