To maintain its lead in omnichannel retailing, the venerable U.K. retailer John Lewis has adopted a very modern strategy: converting to "hybrid" distribution centers that fill orders for both retail stores and online sales.
London-based retailer The John Lewis Partnership fared exceptionally well during last year's Christmas selling season. For the five weeks leading up to December 28, 2013, its total sales, in stores and online, amounted to £734 million—a 7.2-percent increase from the same period the previous year. Although in-store sales rose only slightly, online sales jumped by 22.6 percent compared to the same period in 2012.
As the December sales results show, John Lewis has been very successful with its omnichannel strategy. To maintain its leadership in omnichannel retailing—which allows consumers to buy, take delivery, and make returns when and where they choose—the company has been redesigning its supply chain. As part of that initiative, John Lewis has begun restructuring its distribution center (DC) network to support a shift to an in-store replenishment strategy that will require major changes in the way it picks, delivers, and stores the products it sells.
A need to simplify
John Lewis has been a familiar name to London shoppers since the days of Charles Dickens. The retailer opened its first store in 1864, during England's Victorian period. Today John Lewis has 41 shops in England, Scotland, and Wales. The company also owns the grocery chain Waitrose, which has more than 300 stores throughout Great Britain, most of them located around greater London. The company's full name, John Lewis Partnership, reflects its ownership by its 91,000 employees, who are called "partners."
John Lewis is a department store that offers three main lines of merchandise: fashion, home goods, and electronics. It first began selling products online about 10 years ago. In 2009 it pioneered a service, called "Click & Collect," that allows consumers to order online and, in most cases, pick up the merchandise in John Lewis retail stores as well as at some Waitrose supermarkets.
Early on, an expansion of the company's online product portfolio—more items were available online than in the stores—drove e-commerce sales growth. The expansion of the Click & Collect program into all John Lewis branch stores as well as consumers' appreciation of its convenience further increased online sales, says Terry Murphy, director of national distribution center operations.
But the company struggled with some aspects of e-commerce fulfillment. When John Lewis first entered the realm of online retailing, it operated separate distribution centers for the online and physical store sales channels. That led to a somewhat convoluted and inefficient fulfillment process.
Back then, the retailer would receive products into the store distribution centers, and then send batches from those DCs to third-party-operated fulfillment centers. Some suppliers shipped products directly to the fulfillment centers as well. The fulfillment centers would put away those products and then pick and ship online orders for home delivery. If the online orders were intended for the Click & Collect program, however, the third-party fulfillment center would have to send those items back to the distribution centers so they could be loaded on trucks for delivery to the stores. "Trying to explain that was a little bit loopy," Murphy says.
Concerned about the complexity of the process for handling Click & Collect items, John Lewis in 2010 decided to redesign both its order fulfillment process and its supporting infrastructure. The retailer elected to shrink its network of 12 distribution centers to either five or six "hybrid" facilities that would handle fulfillment for both online orders and store replenishment. (The company has not yet made a final decision on the number of DCs.) "As our online sales grew, what we wanted to do was be able to replenish the shops and fulfill the online sales from the same inventory," Murphy says.
The changeover to a network of hybrid DCs will benefit the retailer in several ways. First, it simplifies the order fulfillment process, reducing time, touches, and costs. It also will allow John Lewis to carry less inventory overall. In addition, because the hybrid facilities are designed to pick individual items, or "eaches," they support the retailer's shift to a replenishment strategy that requires picking an item for each one sold and shipping individual items rather than full cases to the department stores. Without the need to store full cases at retail locations, John Lewis will be able to convert stockroom space into sales space, thus expanding the breadth of available store inventory.
Open some, close some
As of this writing, John Lewis is still in the process of determining the final shape of its network of hybrid facilities; the company expects to complete its network restructuring by 2016. According to Murphy, the retailer chose to make the conversion in phases due to leases on current buildings and the resources involved in carrying out the project.
At present, John Lewis has seven distribution centers—two dedicated to online sales, two for store replenishment, and three hybrid DCs up and running. Another hybrid facility is set to open later this year. All of the DCs ship to customers throughout Great Britain. "It is more cost-effective to have a national inventory rather than regional," Murphy says. "We hold one single stock of each SKU (stock-keeping unit) rather than regional holdings of duplicate SKUs. This is because the United Kingdom is not too large to access each store each day." It would also be expensive to replicate its inventory of 250,000 to 300,000 products in more than one DC, he adds.
As the DC network is now configured, the retailer still operates a West London facility for fashion apparel that only does store replenishment. A separate DC in Oilerton, England, handles fashion for online sales. Plans call for the gradual closing of the West London facility when the revamped network is completed; Murphy says his company is still "working through options" for the Oilerton site.
The other store-replenishment DC, in Northampton, England, handles products that move in rollable cages. That facility also stocks and ships "two-man" products, such as furniture and appliances, that typically are delivered by two partners to a customer's home. John Lewis is in the process of shifting responsibility for its caged and two-man products to a facility in the city of Milton Keynes that will handle both store replenishment and online sales.
In another part of Milton Keynes, the retailer is developing a campus that will include two hybrid facilities connected by a 98-foot bridge. One building, dubbed "Magna Park I," handles products stored in bins; the other, "Magna Park II," will handle hanging garments.
Locating the two buildings side-by-side gives John Lewis the ability to consolidate different types of products for direct-to-consumer or Click & Collect orders. Say a customer orders a pair of shoes and a suit. The shoes would be picked in the Magna Park I facility and then married up with the suit picked in Magna Park II before the order goes out the door. The "binnable" facility is up and running now; Magna Park II will be completed and automated material handling equipment installed by the end of this year. At that time, John Lewis will close older facilities dedicated to hanging fashion. According to Murphy, the Magna Park facilities are expected to process 65 to 70 percent of the retailer's online sales.
In addition, the company has a separate facility in Birmingham, England, that fills online orders of fragile items. Because those items could get damaged while traveling in bins on a conveyor line, they are handled and processed manually. As part of its network redesign, John Lewis plans to integrate the handling of fragile products into other DCs.
Traveling tote bins
As previously noted, the new hybrid facilities will support John Lewis' shift to "eaches" fulfillment. The example of Magna Park I illustrates how that process will work.
When inbound products arrive at Magna Park I, partners take the individual items out of their cardboard cases and place them in tote bins, which move on automated conveyors to storage areas for putaway. The tote bins generally hold similar stock-keeping units. Recently, John Lewis introduced compartmentalized bins that can hold up to eight different SKUs in a single tote. These totes are designed to hold slow-moving SKUs that typically move in small quantities, Murphy explains.
When the company needs to replenish items for a store, tote bins holding the appropriate stock come out of storage and travel to a packing station. There, the computer system instructs a partner to remove one item—a pair of socks, say—from the stock bin and place the item in a second bin, which is destined for a particular store. The second bin could then travel on a conveyor to another station, where a partner adds another item destined for the same store. When the bins are complete, they go to the loading dock that has been assigned for deliveries to a particular store. This system not only makes order fulfillment more efficient by keeping items for a specific retail location together, it also facilitates restocking at those stores. That's because the computer system "knows" the retail stores' layouts and groups items in the shipping bins to reduce walk time for partners when they set out merchandise for sale, Murphy explains.
Because Magna Park I was designed as a hybrid facility, partners can also fill direct-to-consumer orders. For those orders, a partner takes the item ordered online out of the stock bin, scans it, and places it in a cardboard shipping carton. The carton then travels down a conveyor to an automated packaging machine, which places a note to the customer in the carton. The packaging system then automatically measures the product inside the carton and folds the box to the proper height.
If the consumer requests home delivery, the order is shipped to the customer's door by one of two parcel carriers, Hermes or City Link. If the order is intended for customer pickup at a retail outlet, then it travels on the same truck as store replenishment orders to a John Lewis branch location. John Lewis' own fleet of trucks with multideck trailers transports about 85 to 90 percent of store-delivered items, with the remainder delivered by local for-hire carriers.
For home delivery of large items like furniture or appliances, John Lewis uses its own specialized delivery vans. Customers may select a two-hour delivery window online, and the retailer uses software from Descartes Systems Group to optimize truck routing. The Descartes application also lets customers book delivery appointments on the website or at the point of sale in the store.
A demand-driven future
In concert with its omnichannel strategy, John Lewis is moving in the direction of a demand-driven supply chain. Murphy is confident in the retailer's ability to achieve that objective. "Given the geography of the U.K., we can deliver to every one of our stores within 12 hours, so a demand-driven operation is eminently feasible," he says.
However, since the retailer has adopted the sell-one-replenish-one strategy that has allowed it to reduce the size of the backrooms in its stores, it now holds less buffer inventory at its retail outlets. That requires the company to have a better handle on demand fluctuations. Toward that end, John Lewis will be upgrading its software. At present, sales orders from the shops are fed into a proprietary system that determines replenishment requests to be sent to the DCs. But John Lewis will soon adopt Oracle software as its platform, which the retailer expects will enable it to take better advantage of demand data to create a more responsive supply chain. For example, the new software could provide advance notification of spikes in customer orders.
The ability to quickly respond to demand could become even more crucial as online sales continue to grow and more customers demand faster deliveries of their orders. Murphy notes that four years ago, 26 percent of the retailer's online orders required next-day delivery; so far this year, 65 percent fit that profile.
John Lewis is looking at further raising the bar for consumer deliveries. A trial program now under way provides same-day delivery at its Birmingham store, which is located above a major railway station. Commuters who place an order by 9:30 a.m. will be able to pick up their items in that store on their way home from work, after 5:00 p.m.
The new network design will help John Lewis provide faster fulfillment and delivery of online orders, and it will enable implementation of demand-driven replenishment for its stores. The hybrid distribution network, Murphy sums up, "allows us to concentrate our inventory in one, purpose-built location, with the ability to switch stock, immediately and virtually, between shop and online." With all those capabilities in place and working smoothly, John Lewis aims to maintain its position as a leader in omnichannel commerce.
Documented processes and procedures are an important aspect of any successful distribution operation. Without process documentation, product gets shipped and not billed, customer orders and items get lost, and employees get upset. Distribution outfits need some form of step-by-step manuals, workflow diagrams, or digital instructions to ensure that operations run smoothly, consistently, and efficiently. However, creating and updating these documents has, historically, been time-consuming and resource-intensive.
Generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI)—a subset of AI that can create content, such as text, images, videos, and other media—can help. This cutting-edge technology has the potential to streamline the process of creating documented processes and procedures. As a result, it can become a cornerstone for companies looking to optimize their distribution operations, streamline training processes, and provide a superior customer experience. What once seemed like a distant futuristic possibility is now a crucial tool for the modern distribution industry.
The cornerstone of consistency
Documented procedures standardize operations across all levels of the distribution chain, from warehouse workers to managers. When employees follow clearly defined steps, consistency in task execution becomes a given. This is especially important in large distribution centers where employees might work on similar tasks but in different shifts. Standardization helps maintain a consistent level of quality, regardless of who is performing the job. This not only enhances operational efficiency but also minimizes errors.
In addition to providing consistency, documented processes and procedures have several other benefits such as streamlining training and onboarding, enhancing knowledge retention, improving performance evaluation, aiding in continuous improvement efforts, and ensuring compliance with industry regulations.
Training and onboarding:Training new employees is a critical phase in any organization, but even more so in the distribution sector, where complex logistics and time-sensitive processes are involved. Clear, documented procedures make it easier to onboard new staff, reducing the learning curve and ensuring they can contribute effectively in a shorter amount of time. These materials are a reliable resource for employees, allowing them to refer back whenever they are uncertain about the correct procedure for a task.
In the past, training often depended on experienced employees showing new hires the ropes, which can be time-consuming and inconsistent. Well-documented processes eliminate this dependency and ensure that training is uniform across the board, leading to faster, more efficient onboarding.
Knowledge retention: One of the biggest challenges many organizations face is the loss of knowledge when experienced employees leave. A robust system of documented procedures acts as an institutional memory, preserving critical knowledge and ensuring that valuable insights and practices are not lost when staff turnover occurs. This continuity is essential for maintaining long-term operational efficiency.
Performance evaluation and continuous improvement: Standardized, documented procedures allow for more objective performance evaluations. Managers can measure employee performance against clearly defined expectations, identifying areas of strength and opportunities for improvement. In addition, these documents serve as a foundation for continuous improvement efforts. By periodically reviewing and refining procedures, businesses can adapt to changing market conditions, adopt new technologies, and optimize workflows to stay competitive.
Compliance and auditing: In today’s regulatory environment, compliance is non-negotiable. Documented procedures are vital in ensuring that a company complies with industry regulations. When processes are clearly outlined and followed, it is easier to demonstrate adherence to safety standards, labor laws, and environmental regulations. This helps avoid costly fines and simplifies the auditing process, reducing the time and resources required for internal and external audits.
The perils of unclear instructions
When warehouses operate without clear, well-documented processes, they expose themselves to risks and inefficiencies. Unclear expectations create uncertainty, which can ripple across the entire operation. Here are some common examples:
Inconsistent performance and increased error rates: Employees may interpret tasks differently without standardized guidelines, leading to inconsistent performance. Variations in completing tasks can result in some excellent but many suboptimal outcomes. For instance, one employee may prioritize speed, while another focuses on accuracy. This inconsistency affects productivity and can lead to a higher error rate in order fulfillment, inventory management, or customer service.
Even small errors can have big consequences in a fast-paced warehouse environment. Incorrectly filled orders, damaged goods, or delayed shipments can damage customer relationships and result in financial losses.
Higher training costs and reduced productivity: When processes are not clearly defined, training new employees becomes more resource-intensive. Without a formalized training program supported by documented procedures, trainers often have to spend more time demonstrating tasks and correcting mistakes. This increases the cost of training and diverts experienced staff away from their regular duties, thus lowering overall productivity.
Customer dissatisfaction: Customer experience is a key differentiator in today’s competitive marketplace. Consistency in processes directly impacts how customers perceive a brand. A positive, uniform experience across multiple interactions strengthens brand identity and fosters loyalty. Customers are more likely to become repeat buyers when they know they can rely on the distributor to deliver on its promises, whether that’s order accuracy, speed of delivery, or responsiveness to inquiries.
Inconsistent service inevitably leads to customer dissatisfaction. Customers expect a reliable and uniform experience, especially regarding delivery times, product availability, and order accuracy. A lack of clear, repeatable processes can make it more likely for a company to fail to meet customer expectations, leading to complaints, returns, and, ultimately, loss of business.
Difficulty scaling operations: Scaling operations becomes increasingly difficult when there is no standardized playbook to follow. As distribution centers grow or a company expands to new locations, replicating success becomes challenging if processes are unclear.
Scalable, consistent processes also allow companies to grow their operations while maintaining the same level of service quality. This scalability becomes a significant competitive advantage in a sector where margins are thin and efficiency is paramount. By ensuring that processes are repeatable and effective, companies can focus on expanding their reach and entering new markets without sacrificing quality.
The potential role of Gen AI
Gen AI is a game changer for distribution operations that are looking to create, update, or optimize their process documentation. Gen AI can drastically reduce the time and effort required to develop comprehensive procedural guidelines by automating and enhancing the content creation process. (Figure 1 above lists the main benefits of using Gen AI to create process documentation and procedures.)
One of the most significant advantages of Gen AI is its ability to generate content quickly. Whether creating initial drafts of process documents or updating existing procedures, AI can handle these tasks in a fraction of the time it would take a human team. AI can also customize the content for specific roles, locations, or scenarios, ensuring the documentation is relevant and applicable to various operational segments.
Gen AI can create documentation in multiple formats, including text-based manuals, visual flowcharts, and instructional videos. This flexibility allows companies to create a variety of training materials that cater to different learning styles and ensures that employees can access information in the format that works best for them. Furthermore, as procedures evolve over time, AI can easily update these documents, keeping them current and aligned with the latest operational requirements.
Best practices and considerations
While the potential benefits of Gen AI are clear, successful implementation requires careful planning and strategic execution. The following are some key considerations that companies must keep in mind as they use Gen AI tools in real-world situations:
Human oversight: AI-generated content should not replace human expertise but rather complement it. Subject matter experts must review AI-generated documents to ensure their accuracy and relevance.
Data quality: AI systems need access to high-quality data to be effective, so ensuring that your organization’s operational data is up-to-date is critical.
Ethical considerations: As with any AI system, ethical considerations must be taken into account, particularly regarding potential biases in the content.
Employee training: Companies must also invest in training their employees to use AI tools effectively, ensuring that they can access and apply the information generated by AI systems.
Security and privacy: As AI systems rely on sensitive operational data, robust security measures are necessary to protect this information.
Change management: Introducing AI significantly changes how employees access and use procedural documentation. Clear communication and training are essential to ensure smooth adoption and to help employees see AI as a tool that enhances their work rather than a threat to their jobs.
Embracing the future of distribution
The distribution sector is on the brink of a significant transformation in today's fast-paced, ever-evolving business landscape. The driving force behind this change is the rise of artificial intelligence and, more specifically, generative AI.
It’s important to realize that Gen AI is not just a tool for the future—it is a tool that can already be used today to improve distribution processes. Companies can create more consistent, efficient, and scalable operations by embracing this technology. AI is poised to revolutionize how companies document and update their distribution processes, which in turn can streamline training and onboarding and improve customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
As the industry moves forward, those who integrate Gen AI into their operations will be better positioned to meet the demands of a dynamic marketplace. The future of distribution lies in the partnership between human expertise and AI, creating a synergy that drives innovation and sets a new standard for excellence in the field.
About the author: Steve Levy is the vice president of Enterprise Architecture for the distribution industry at Infor. Before joining Infor, he honed his skills and expertise working in the distribution industry and was the executive vice president at a wholesale paper distributor.
As the Trump Administration threatens new steps in a growing trade war, U.S. manufacturers and retailers are calling for a ceasefire, saying the crossfire caused by the new tax hikes on American businesses will raise prices for consumers and possibly trigger rising inflation.
Tariffs are taxes charged by a country on its own businesses that import goods from other nations. Until they can invest in long-term alternatives like building new factories or finding new trading partners, companies must either take those additional tax duties out of their profit margins or pass them on to consumers as higher prices.
The Trump Administration on Thursday announced it may impose “reciprocal tariffs” on any country that currently holds tariffs on the import of U.S. goods. That step followed earlier threats to apply tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum beginning March 12, another plan to charge tariffs on the import of materials from Canada and Mexico—now postponed until early March—and new round of tariffs on imports from China including a 10% blanket increase and the elimination of the “de minimis” exception for individual items under a value of $800 each.
Various industry groups say that while the Administration may have legitimate goals in ramping up a trade war—such as lowering foreign tariff and non-tariff trade barriers—applying a strategy of hiking tariffs on imports coming into America would inflict economic harm on U.S. businesses and consumers.
“This tariff-heavy approach continues to gamble with our economic prosperity and is based on incomplete thinking about the vital role ethical and fairly traded imports play in the prosperity,” Steve Lamar, president and CEO of The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) said in a release. “Putting America first means ensuring predictability for American businesses that create U.S. jobs; affordable options for American consumers who power our economy; opportunities for farmers who feed our families; and support for tens of millions of U.S. workers whose trade dependent jobs make our factories, our stores, our warehouses, and our offices function. Sweeping new tariffs — a possible outcome of this exercise — instead puts America last, raising costs for American manufacturers for critical inputs and materials, closing key markets for American farmers, and raising prices for hardworking American families.”
A similar message came from the National Retail Federation (NRF), whose executive vice president of government relations, David French, said: “While we support the president’s efforts to reduce trade barriers and imbalances, this scale of undertaking is massive and will be extremely disruptive to our supply chains. It will likely result in higher prices for hardworking American families and will erode household spending power. We encourage the president to seek coordination and collaboration with our trading partners and bring stability to our supply chains and family budgets.”
The logistics tech firm Körber Supply Chain Software has a common position. "The imposition of new tariffs, or the suspension of tariffs, introduces substantial challenges for businesses dependent on international supply chains. Industries such as automotive and electronics, which rely heavily on cross-border trade with Mexico and Canada, are particularly vulnerable,” Steve Blough, Chief Strategist at Körber Supply Chain Software, said in an emailed statement. “Supply chains that are doing low-value ecommerce deliveries will have their business model thrown into complete disarray. The increased costs due to tariffs, or the increased costs in processing time due to suspensions, may lead to higher consumer prices and processing times.”
And further opposition to the strategy came from the California-based IT consulting firm Bristlecone. “Tariffs or the potential for tariffs increase uncertainty throughout the supply chain, potentially stalling deals, impacting the sourcing of raw materials, and prompting higher prices for consumers,” Jen Chew, Bristlecone’s VP of Solutions & Consulting, said in a statement. “Tariffs and other protectionist economic policies reflect an overarching trend away from global sourcing and toward local sourcing and production. However, despite the perceived benefits of local operations, some resources and capabilities may simply not be available locally, prompting manufacturers to continue operations overseas, even if it means paying steep tariffs.”
New Jersey is home to the most congested freight bottleneck in the country for the seventh straight year, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
ATRI’s annual list of the Top 100 Truck Bottlenecks aims to highlight the nation’s most congested highways and help local, state, and federal governments target funding to areas most in need of relief. The data show ways to reduce chokepoints, lower emissions, and drive economic growth, according to the researchers.
The 2025 Top Truck Bottleneck List measures the level of truck-involved congestion at more than 325 locations on the national highway system. The analysis is based on an extensive database of freight truck GPS data and uses several customized software applications and analysis methods, along with terabytes of data from trucking operations, to produce a congestion impact ranking for each location. The bottleneck locations detailed in the latest ATRI list represent the top 100 congested locations, although ATRI continuously monitors more than 325 freight-critical locations, the group said.
For the seventh straight year, the intersection of I-95 and State Route 4 near the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee, New Jersey, is the top freight bottleneck in the country. The remaining top 10 bottlenecks include: Chicago, I-294 at I-290/I-88; Houston, I-45 at I-69/US 59; Atlanta, I-285 at I-85 (North); Nashville: I-24/I-40 at I-440 (East); Atlanta: I-75 at I-285 (North); Los Angeles, SR 60 at SR 57; Cincinnati, I-71 at I-75; Houston, I-10 at I-45; and Atlanta, I-20 at I-285 (West).
ATRI’s analysis, which utilized data from 2024, found that traffic conditions continue to deteriorate from recent years, partly due to work zones resulting from increased infrastructure investment. Average rush hour truck speeds were 34.2 miles per hour (MPH), down 3% from the previous year. Among the top 10 locations, average rush hour truck speeds were 29.7 MPH.
In addition to squandering time and money, these delays also waste fuel—with trucks burning an estimated 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel and producing more than 65 million metric tons of additional carbon emissions while stuck in traffic jams, according to ATRI.
On a positive note, ATRI said its analysis helps quantify the value of infrastructure investment, pointing to improvements at Chicago’s Jane Byrne Interchange as an example. Once the number one truck bottleneck in the country for three years in a row, the recently constructed interchange saw rush hour truck speeds improve by nearly 25% after construction was completed, according to the report.
“Delays inflicted on truckers by congestion are the equivalent of 436,000 drivers sitting idle for an entire year,” ATRI President and COO Rebecca Brewster said in a statement announcing the findings. “These metrics are getting worse, but the good news is that states do not need to accept the status quo. Illinois was once home to the top bottleneck in the country, but following a sustained effort to expand capacity, the Jane Byrne Interchange in Chicago no longer ranks in the top 10. This data gives policymakers a road map to reduce chokepoints, lower emissions, and drive economic growth.”
Know someone who is making a difference in the world of logistics? Then consider nominating that person as one of DC Velocity’s “Rainmakers”—professionals from all facets of the business whose achievements set them apart from the crowd. In the past, they have included practitioners, consultants, academics, vendors, and even military commanders.
To identify these achievers, DC Velocity’s editorial directors work with members of the magazine’s Editorial Advisory Board. The nomination process begins in January and concludes in April with a vote to determine which nominees will be invited to become Rainmakers.
It’s getting a little easier to find warehouse space in the U.S., as the frantic construction pace of recent years declined to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with rising vacancies, according to a report from real estate firm Colliers.
Those trends played out as the gap between new building supply and tenants’ demand narrowed during 2024, the firm said in its “U.S. Industrial Market Outlook Report / Q4 2024.” By the numbers, developers delivered 400 million square feet for the year, 34% below the record 607 million square feet completed in 2023. And net absorption, a key measure of demand, declined by 27%, to 168 million square feet.
Consequently, the U.S. industrial vacancy rate rose by 126 basis points, to 6.8%, as construction activity normalized at year-end to pre-pandemic levels of below 300 million square feet. With supply and demand nearing equilibrium in 2025, the vacancy rate is expected to peak at around 7% before starting to fall again.
Thanks to those market conditions, renters of warehouse space should begin to see some relief from the steep rent hikes they’re seen in recent years. According to Colliers, rent growth decelerated in 2024 after nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year increases surpassing 10%. Average warehouse and distribution rents rose by 5% to $10.12/SF triple net, and rents in some markets actually declined following a period of unprecedented growth when increases often exceeded 25% year-over-year. As the market adjusts, rents are projected to stabilize in 2025, rising between 2% and 5%, in line with historical averages.
In 2024, there were 125 new occupancies of 500,000 square feet or more, led by third-party logistics (3PL) providers, followed by manufacturing companies. Demand peaked in the fourth quarter at 53 million square feet, while the first quarter had the lowest activity at 28 million square feet — the lowest quarterly tally since 2012.
In its economic outlook for the future, Colliers said the U.S. economy remains strong by most measures; with low unemployment, consumer spending surpassing expectations, positive GDP growth, and signs of improvement in manufacturing. However businesses still face challenges including persistent inflation, the lowest hiring rate since 2010, and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, migration, and policies introduced by the new Trump Administration.