To maintain its lead in omnichannel retailing, the venerable U.K. retailer John Lewis has adopted a very modern strategy: converting to "hybrid" distribution centers that fill orders for both retail stores and online sales.
London-based retailer The John Lewis Partnership fared exceptionally well during last year's Christmas selling season. For the five weeks leading up to December 28, 2013, its total sales, in stores and online, amounted to £734 million—a 7.2-percent increase from the same period the previous year. Although in-store sales rose only slightly, online sales jumped by 22.6 percent compared to the same period in 2012.
As the December sales results show, John Lewis has been very successful with its omnichannel strategy. To maintain its leadership in omnichannel retailing—which allows consumers to buy, take delivery, and make returns when and where they choose—the company has been redesigning its supply chain. As part of that initiative, John Lewis has begun restructuring its distribution center (DC) network to support a shift to an in-store replenishment strategy that will require major changes in the way it picks, delivers, and stores the products it sells.
A need to simplify
John Lewis has been a familiar name to London shoppers since the days of Charles Dickens. The retailer opened its first store in 1864, during England's Victorian period. Today John Lewis has 41 shops in England, Scotland, and Wales. The company also owns the grocery chain Waitrose, which has more than 300 stores throughout Great Britain, most of them located around greater London. The company's full name, John Lewis Partnership, reflects its ownership by its 91,000 employees, who are called "partners."
John Lewis is a department store that offers three main lines of merchandise: fashion, home goods, and electronics. It first began selling products online about 10 years ago. In 2009 it pioneered a service, called "Click & Collect," that allows consumers to order online and, in most cases, pick up the merchandise in John Lewis retail stores as well as at some Waitrose supermarkets.
Early on, an expansion of the company's online product portfolio—more items were available online than in the stores—drove e-commerce sales growth. The expansion of the Click & Collect program into all John Lewis branch stores as well as consumers' appreciation of its convenience further increased online sales, says Terry Murphy, director of national distribution center operations.
But the company struggled with some aspects of e-commerce fulfillment. When John Lewis first entered the realm of online retailing, it operated separate distribution centers for the online and physical store sales channels. That led to a somewhat convoluted and inefficient fulfillment process.
Back then, the retailer would receive products into the store distribution centers, and then send batches from those DCs to third-party-operated fulfillment centers. Some suppliers shipped products directly to the fulfillment centers as well. The fulfillment centers would put away those products and then pick and ship online orders for home delivery. If the online orders were intended for the Click & Collect program, however, the third-party fulfillment center would have to send those items back to the distribution centers so they could be loaded on trucks for delivery to the stores. "Trying to explain that was a little bit loopy," Murphy says.
Concerned about the complexity of the process for handling Click & Collect items, John Lewis in 2010 decided to redesign both its order fulfillment process and its supporting infrastructure. The retailer elected to shrink its network of 12 distribution centers to either five or six "hybrid" facilities that would handle fulfillment for both online orders and store replenishment. (The company has not yet made a final decision on the number of DCs.) "As our online sales grew, what we wanted to do was be able to replenish the shops and fulfill the online sales from the same inventory," Murphy says.
The changeover to a network of hybrid DCs will benefit the retailer in several ways. First, it simplifies the order fulfillment process, reducing time, touches, and costs. It also will allow John Lewis to carry less inventory overall. In addition, because the hybrid facilities are designed to pick individual items, or "eaches," they support the retailer's shift to a replenishment strategy that requires picking an item for each one sold and shipping individual items rather than full cases to the department stores. Without the need to store full cases at retail locations, John Lewis will be able to convert stockroom space into sales space, thus expanding the breadth of available store inventory.
Open some, close some
As of this writing, John Lewis is still in the process of determining the final shape of its network of hybrid facilities; the company expects to complete its network restructuring by 2016. According to Murphy, the retailer chose to make the conversion in phases due to leases on current buildings and the resources involved in carrying out the project.
At present, John Lewis has seven distribution centers—two dedicated to online sales, two for store replenishment, and three hybrid DCs up and running. Another hybrid facility is set to open later this year. All of the DCs ship to customers throughout Great Britain. "It is more cost-effective to have a national inventory rather than regional," Murphy says. "We hold one single stock of each SKU (stock-keeping unit) rather than regional holdings of duplicate SKUs. This is because the United Kingdom is not too large to access each store each day." It would also be expensive to replicate its inventory of 250,000 to 300,000 products in more than one DC, he adds.
As the DC network is now configured, the retailer still operates a West London facility for fashion apparel that only does store replenishment. A separate DC in Oilerton, England, handles fashion for online sales. Plans call for the gradual closing of the West London facility when the revamped network is completed; Murphy says his company is still "working through options" for the Oilerton site.
The other store-replenishment DC, in Northampton, England, handles products that move in rollable cages. That facility also stocks and ships "two-man" products, such as furniture and appliances, that typically are delivered by two partners to a customer's home. John Lewis is in the process of shifting responsibility for its caged and two-man products to a facility in the city of Milton Keynes that will handle both store replenishment and online sales.
In another part of Milton Keynes, the retailer is developing a campus that will include two hybrid facilities connected by a 98-foot bridge. One building, dubbed "Magna Park I," handles products stored in bins; the other, "Magna Park II," will handle hanging garments.
Locating the two buildings side-by-side gives John Lewis the ability to consolidate different types of products for direct-to-consumer or Click & Collect orders. Say a customer orders a pair of shoes and a suit. The shoes would be picked in the Magna Park I facility and then married up with the suit picked in Magna Park II before the order goes out the door. The "binnable" facility is up and running now; Magna Park II will be completed and automated material handling equipment installed by the end of this year. At that time, John Lewis will close older facilities dedicated to hanging fashion. According to Murphy, the Magna Park facilities are expected to process 65 to 70 percent of the retailer's online sales.
In addition, the company has a separate facility in Birmingham, England, that fills online orders of fragile items. Because those items could get damaged while traveling in bins on a conveyor line, they are handled and processed manually. As part of its network redesign, John Lewis plans to integrate the handling of fragile products into other DCs.
Traveling tote bins
As previously noted, the new hybrid facilities will support John Lewis' shift to "eaches" fulfillment. The example of Magna Park I illustrates how that process will work.
When inbound products arrive at Magna Park I, partners take the individual items out of their cardboard cases and place them in tote bins, which move on automated conveyors to storage areas for putaway. The tote bins generally hold similar stock-keeping units. Recently, John Lewis introduced compartmentalized bins that can hold up to eight different SKUs in a single tote. These totes are designed to hold slow-moving SKUs that typically move in small quantities, Murphy explains.
When the company needs to replenish items for a store, tote bins holding the appropriate stock come out of storage and travel to a packing station. There, the computer system instructs a partner to remove one item—a pair of socks, say—from the stock bin and place the item in a second bin, which is destined for a particular store. The second bin could then travel on a conveyor to another station, where a partner adds another item destined for the same store. When the bins are complete, they go to the loading dock that has been assigned for deliveries to a particular store. This system not only makes order fulfillment more efficient by keeping items for a specific retail location together, it also facilitates restocking at those stores. That's because the computer system "knows" the retail stores' layouts and groups items in the shipping bins to reduce walk time for partners when they set out merchandise for sale, Murphy explains.
Because Magna Park I was designed as a hybrid facility, partners can also fill direct-to-consumer orders. For those orders, a partner takes the item ordered online out of the stock bin, scans it, and places it in a cardboard shipping carton. The carton then travels down a conveyor to an automated packaging machine, which places a note to the customer in the carton. The packaging system then automatically measures the product inside the carton and folds the box to the proper height.
If the consumer requests home delivery, the order is shipped to the customer's door by one of two parcel carriers, Hermes or City Link. If the order is intended for customer pickup at a retail outlet, then it travels on the same truck as store replenishment orders to a John Lewis branch location. John Lewis' own fleet of trucks with multideck trailers transports about 85 to 90 percent of store-delivered items, with the remainder delivered by local for-hire carriers.
For home delivery of large items like furniture or appliances, John Lewis uses its own specialized delivery vans. Customers may select a two-hour delivery window online, and the retailer uses software from Descartes Systems Group to optimize truck routing. The Descartes application also lets customers book delivery appointments on the website or at the point of sale in the store.
A demand-driven future
In concert with its omnichannel strategy, John Lewis is moving in the direction of a demand-driven supply chain. Murphy is confident in the retailer's ability to achieve that objective. "Given the geography of the U.K., we can deliver to every one of our stores within 12 hours, so a demand-driven operation is eminently feasible," he says.
However, since the retailer has adopted the sell-one-replenish-one strategy that has allowed it to reduce the size of the backrooms in its stores, it now holds less buffer inventory at its retail outlets. That requires the company to have a better handle on demand fluctuations. Toward that end, John Lewis will be upgrading its software. At present, sales orders from the shops are fed into a proprietary system that determines replenishment requests to be sent to the DCs. But John Lewis will soon adopt Oracle software as its platform, which the retailer expects will enable it to take better advantage of demand data to create a more responsive supply chain. For example, the new software could provide advance notification of spikes in customer orders.
The ability to quickly respond to demand could become even more crucial as online sales continue to grow and more customers demand faster deliveries of their orders. Murphy notes that four years ago, 26 percent of the retailer's online orders required next-day delivery; so far this year, 65 percent fit that profile.
John Lewis is looking at further raising the bar for consumer deliveries. A trial program now under way provides same-day delivery at its Birmingham store, which is located above a major railway station. Commuters who place an order by 9:30 a.m. will be able to pick up their items in that store on their way home from work, after 5:00 p.m.
The new network design will help John Lewis provide faster fulfillment and delivery of online orders, and it will enable implementation of demand-driven replenishment for its stores. The hybrid distribution network, Murphy sums up, "allows us to concentrate our inventory in one, purpose-built location, with the ability to switch stock, immediately and virtually, between shop and online." With all those capabilities in place and working smoothly, John Lewis aims to maintain its position as a leader in omnichannel commerce.
“The past year has been unprecedented, with extreme weather events, heightened geopolitical tension and cybercrime destabilizing supply chains throughout the world. Navigating this year’s looming risks to build a secure supply network has never been more critical,” Corey Rhodes, CEO of Everstream Analytics, said in the firm’s “2025 Annual Risk Report.”
“While some risks are unavoidable, early notice and swift action through a combination of planning, deep monitoring, and mitigation can save inventory and lives in 2025,” Rhodes said.
In its report, Everstream ranked the five categories by a “risk score metric” to help global supply chain leaders prioritize planning and mitigation efforts for coping with them. They include:
Drowning in Climate Change – 90% Risk Score. Driven by shifting climate patterns and record-high temperatures, extreme weather events are a dominant risk to the supply chain due to concerns such as flooding and elevated ocean temperatures.
Geopolitical Instability with Increased Tariff Risk – 80% Risk Score. These threats could disrupt trade networks and impact economies worldwide, including logistics, transportation, and manufacturing industries. The following major geopolitical events are likely to impact global trade: Red Sea disruptions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Taiwan trade risks, Middle East tensions, South China Sea disputes, and proposed tariff increases.
More Backdoors for Cybercrime – 75% Risk Score. Supply chain leaders face escalating cybersecurity risks in 2025, driven by the growing reliance on AI and cloud computing within supply chains, the proliferation of IoT-connected devices, vulnerabilities in sub-tier supply chains, and a disproportionate impact on third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and the electronics industry.
Rare Metals and Minerals on Lockdown – 65% Risk Score. Between rising regulations, new tariffs, and long-term or exclusive contracts, rare minerals and metals will be harder than ever, and more expensive, to obtain.
Crackdown on Forced Labor – 60% Risk Score. A growing crackdown on forced labor across industries will increase pressure on companies who are facing scrutiny to manage and eliminate suppliers violating human rights. Anticipated risks in 2025 include a push for alternative suppliers, a cascade of legislation to address lax forced labor issues, challenges for agri-food products such as palm oil and vanilla.
Specifically, the two sides remain at odds over provisions related to the deployment of semi-automated technologies like rail-mounted gantry cranes, according to an analysis by the Kansas-based 3PL Noatum Logistics. The ILA has strongly opposed further automation, arguing it threatens dockworker protections, while the USMX contends that automation enhances productivity and can create long-term opportunities for labor.
In fact, U.S. importers are already taking action to prevent the impact of such a strike, “pulling forward” their container shipments by rushing imports to earlier dates on the calendar, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. That strategy can help companies to build enough safety stock to dampen the damage of events like the strike and like the steep tariffs being threatened by the incoming Trump administration.
Likewise, some ocean carriers have already instituted January surcharges in pre-emption of possible labor action, which could support inbound ocean rates if a strike occurs, according to freight market analysts with TD Cowen. In the meantime, the outcome of the new negotiations are seen with “significant uncertainty,” due to the contentious history of the discussion and to the timing of the talks that overlap with a transition between two White House regimes, analysts said.
Maersk’s overall view of the coming year is that the global economy is expected to grow modestly, with the possibility of higher inflation caused by lingering supply chain issues, continued geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policies such as new tariffs. Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions could threaten global stability, climate change action will continue to shape international cooperation, and the ongoing security issue in the Red Sea is expected to continue into 2025.
Those are difficult challenges, but according to Maersk, a vital part of logistics planning is understanding where risk and weak spots might be and finding ways to dampen the impact of inevitable hurdles.
They include:
1. Build a resilient supply chain As opposed to simply maintaining traditional network designs, Maersk says it is teaming with Hapag-Lloyd to implement a new East-West network called Gemini, beginning in February, 2025. The network will use leaner mainliners and shuttles together, allowing for isolation of port disruptions, minimizing the impact of disruptions to supply chains and routes. More broadly, companies should work with an integrated logistics partner that has multiple solutions—be they by air, truck, barge or rail—allowing supply chains to adapt around issues, while still meeting consumer demands.
2. Implementing technological advances
A key component in ensuring more resilience against disruptions is working with a supply chain supplier that offers advanced real-time tracking systems and AI-powered analytics to provide comprehensive visibility across supply chains. An AI-powered dashboard of analytics can provide end-to-end visibility of shipments, tasks, and updates, enabling efficient logistics management without the need to chase down data. Also, forecasting tools can give predictive analytics to optimize inventory, reduce waste, and enhance efficiency. And incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) into digital solutions can enable live tracking of containers to monitor shipments.
3. Preparing for anything, instead of everything Contingency planning was a big theme for 2024, and remains so for 2025. That need is highlighted by geopolitical instability, climate change and volatility, and changes to tariffs and legislation. So in 2025, businesses should seek to partner with a logistics partner that offers risk and disruption navigation through pre-planned procedures, risk assessments, and alternative solutions.
4. Diversifying all aspects of the supply chain Supply chains have felt the impact of disruption throughout 2024, with the situation in the Red Sea resulting in all shipping having to avoid the Suez Canal, and instead going around the Cape of Good Hope. This has increased demand throughout the year, resulting in businesses trying to move cargo earlier to ensure they can meet customer needs, and even considering nearshoring. As regionalization has become more prevalent, businesses can use nearshoring to diversify suppliers and reduce their dependency on single sources. By ensuring that these suppliers and manufacturers are closer to the consumer market, businesses can keep production costs lower as well as have more ease of reaching markets and avoid delay-related risks from global disruptions. Utilizing options closer to market can also allow companies to better adapt to changes in consumer needs and behavior. Finally, some companies may also find it useful to stock critical materials for future, to act as a buffer against unexpected delays and/or issues relating to trade embargoes.
5. Understanding tariffs, legislation and regulations 2024 was year of customs regulations in EU. And tariffs are expected in the U.S. as well, once the new Trump Administration takes office. However, consistent with President-elect Trump’s first term, threats of increases are often used as a negotiating tool. So companies should take a wait and see approach to U.S. customs, even as they cope with the certainty that further EU customs are set to come into play.
For an island measuring a little less than 14,000 square miles (or about the size of Belgium), Taiwan plays a crucial role in global supply chains, making geopolitical concerns associated with it of keen interest to most major corporations.
Taiwan has essentially acted as an independent nation since 1949, when the nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island following the communist takeover of mainland China. Yet China has made no secret of the fact that it wants to bring Taiwan back under its authority—ambitions that were brought to the fore in October when China launched military drills that simulated an attack on the island.
If China were to invade Taiwan, it could have serious political and social consequences that would ripple around the globe. And it would be particularly devastating to our supply chains, says consultant Ashray Lavsi, a principal at the global procurement and supply chain consultancy Efficio. He specializes in solving complex supply chain, operations, and procurement problems, with a special focus on resilience. Prior to joining Efficio’s London office in 2017, he worked at XPO Logistics in the U.S. and the Netherlands.
Lavsi spoke recently with David Maloney, Supply Chain Xchange’s group editorial director, about what might happen if China moves to annex Taiwan—what shortages would likely arise, the impact on shipping lanes and ocean freight costs, and what managers should be doing now to prepare for potential disruptions ahead.
It’s no secret that China has ambitions on Taiwan. If China were to attempt to seize control of Taiwan, how would that affect the world’s supply chains?
There would be wide-ranging disruptions around the world. The United States does a lot of trade with both China and Taiwan. For example, the U.S. imports about $470 billion worth of goods from China, while China imports about $124 billion from the U.S. Meanwhile, Taiwan is the No. 9 trading partner for the U.S. So all of this trade could come to a halt, depending on the level of conflict. Supplies would likely be disrupted, and trade routes could be affected, resulting in delays and higher shipping costs.
Furthermore, there would likely be disruptions to trade not just between the U.S. and China, but also across the board. It could very well be that the NATO members get involved, that South Korea gets involved, that Japan gets involved, the Philippines get involved, so it could very quickly spiral into widespread disruptions.
We’ve seen big changes in the way businesses in Hong Kong operate since Britain handed control of Hong Kong over to China nearly 30 years ago. If China were to succeed in bringing Taiwan under its authority, would we see a similar outcome?
Indeed, I would expect so. I read recently that since around 2020, foreign direct investment in Hong Kong has dropped by nearly 50%, from $105 million to $54 million. The drop was primarily because of increased regulatory oversight. There are now a lot of restrictions on freedom of speech as well as tighter control over business operations. Something similar could very well happen in Taiwan if China were to succeed in taking over the island.
As you mentioned, the United States conducts a lot of trade with both Taiwan and China, and both countries have become strategic supply chain partners. Beyond the diplomatic considerations, what would a military or economic conflict mean for the United States?
There is a lot of trade in goods like agricultural products, aircraft, electronic components, and machinery, and our access to all of those items could be cut off. On top of that, China controls 70% of the world’s rare earth minerals [which are crucial for the production of a wide variety of electronic devices]. So any conflict in the region would almost certainly result in many disruptions, particularly in critical sectors like technology and electronics—disruptions that would lead to shortages and increased costs.
Trade routes would also be affected, resulting in delays and higher shipping costs. U.S. companies would need to seek out alternative suppliers for critical materials or components they currently source in China, if they haven’t already. And if they haven’t lined up alternative suppliers, any hostilities could result in a complete halt in production.
What effect would such a move have on the global economy?
It’s been quite a few years since economies have just been localized. Any disruption now has widespread ripple effects across the world. As we discussed, any conflict between the United States and China naturally pulls in countries like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the NATO countries, and it can very quickly spiral out.
Look at the semiconductor, or chip, shortages. If you recall, back in 2021, those shortages led to almost a half-trillion-dollar loss for the automakers, who lost out on sales of 7.7 million vehicles because they couldn’t meet demand. We could see a repeat of that situation—maybe even on a larger scale.
I found this statistic interesting—we often talk about the semiconductor shortages during the pandemic, but if you look at true production numbers, the actual production of chips went up from 2020, to 2021, to 2022. The shortage was driven not by a drop in production, but rather, by a surge in demand for PCs from people working from home. That demand has since dwindled, but we’d still face a major semiconductor shortage if much of the production were halted. So that’s going to be a very big change, a very big disruption.
Of course, the United States, along with a number of other countries, has taken steps to reduce its exposure to risk by bringing some semiconductor production back to its own shores. But it will take time to get those operations up and running, and their output would still be just a drop in the bucket compared to what’s needed. So what would a takeover of Taiwan mean for the overall semiconductor flow?
It essentially stops, right? Let me paint a picture that illustrates the importance of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry to global manufacturing. Semiconductors go into everything from cars to military equipment to computers to data centers to microwaves—they are in everything around us. Taiwan produces 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the advanced chips. Just let that sink in: More than 90% of all the advanced chips produced worldwide come from Taiwan, primarily from a big fabrication company called TSMC.
So the complexity and the precision required to make advanced semiconductors, combined with the limited number of companies around the world, make Taiwan’s position unmatched. The second-largest producer after TSMC is South Korean-based Samsung, which produces 18%, so that’s the gap that we are talking about.
As you rightly said, there are efforts by governments across the world to reduce their reliance on Taiwan. For example, TSMC is building three fabrication facilities in Arizona—the third with funding from the U.S. government. The first plant is set to go live next year and the third by 2030. But even once all three plants are up and running, the production volumes won’t be close to what TSMC produces in Taiwan. It’s going to take years to reduce our reliance on production in Taiwan. If that supply is cut off, the ripple effect will be tremendous.
Setting aside the historical and political claims China has made on Taiwan, is Taiwan’s dominance in the semiconductor industry a main reason why China has set its sights on it?
It could be. China has been investing heavily in chip production—for instance, today, most, if not all, of the chips in the latest Huawei phones are locally produced in China. But China is still quite a few years behind TSMC. So that’s definitely going to be one of the big factors, right? One article that I found very interesting declared that chips are the new oil. If you control chip production, you control the global market.
Let’s talk about the implications for shipping lanes. If you take a look at the map, you realize that the Taiwan Strait is a very important shipping lane for containerized goods coming out of both China and Taiwan. If China were to institute a military blockade, how would that affect the world’s container flows?
That flow would be affected tremendously. The Taiwan Strait plays a crucial role in global shipping, particularly for goods moving between Asia and the rest of the world. It is one of the busiest shipping lanes, and any blockage would severely disrupt global container flows.
Now let me put that into perspective. Fifty percent of the world’s containerships pass through the Taiwan Strait—50%. That’s a huge number. By comparison, the Suez Canal handles about 20% of global trade. Or to use another measure: 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022.
I’ve been reading up on this in the past few months and it seems that a military blockage is a very likely scenario—one that would cripple Taiwan’s economy without a full-scale invasion. So instead of a mounting a full-on attack, China might just block the strait, which would lead to delays in the delivery of goods, affecting global supply chains and causing shortages across Asia and the U.S.
Given the escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, should shippers and manufacturers be preparing today for a potential conflict?
Businesses have to begin preparing today. If businesses were to say, “Okay, I’m going to wait until the conflict breaks out, and then figure out what I’ll do,” it will be too late. You’re done. Your production comes to halt. You can no longer satisfy your customer requirements. So proactive measures are an absolute requirement.
What should they do to prepare?
I would urge manufacturers and shippers to take what’s essentially a two-pronged approach.
First, you need to segment and identify your critical components, based on how crucial they are to your production operations and the risk associated with their sources, where they’re coming from. After you segment them, you list your top-priority items—the critical components that you absolutely cannot do without. You then split your supply chain into two, so that you have a much more redundant supply chain built for those critical items and then a second supply chain for everything else.
To build redundancy, you establish multiple suppliers and diversify them geographically. You also build in stringent contingency measures, which could include strategic stockpiling, nearshoring, and friendshoring, which is where you store inventory with an ally or in a friend consortium, as well as buying alternative components wherever possible. So all of those measures need to be put in place for the components that you’ve identified as absolutely critical for your production.
What is the second prong?
The second prong is the need to manage increased costs. There’s no getting away from higher costs, right? If you’re holding more inventory, you have higher inventory carrying costs. And if you’re diversifying your supply base, that means you don’t have as much leverage [with individual suppliers]. You’re also going to be managing multiple supply chains, which requires an increase in human capital because you’ll need more people to manage the more complex supply chains that you’re putting in place.
One way to manage costs could be by implementing strategic sourcing programs across the board that are aimed at mitigating some of the expenses. By taking these steps, manufacturers can safeguard their operations against potential disruptions and ensure continuity.
A lot of U.S. companies have been nearshoring to Mexico, which has now become the United States’ leading trade partner. Is that a simple solution for companies looking to reduce their reliance on Asia?
It is one of the solutions. But you won’t be able to replace your Asian supply base immediately—as with semiconductors, it may take a few years to build out that capacity.
So you need to start stockpiling essential components now—particularly if you won’t be able to find alternatives. You want to make sure that you’re holding the right amount of inventory of the components that you absolutely need. So nearshoring is an option, but you need to be careful what you move to Mexico.
Is that because moving production to Mexico will raise your costs compared to sourcing in Asia?
Yes, production costs will be higher compared to a place like Vietnam, where wages are currently lower than in Mexico. It might reduce the logistics cost, but I think there’s still a net increase overall because you’ll have higher expenses for things like regulatory compliance. Plus you’ll have the one-time cost of setting up the facilities.
Ideally, you’ll never have to face these problems we’ve been talking about, but it’s always better to be prepared.
Editor’s note:This article first appeared in the November 2024 issue of our sister publication DC Velocity.
As we look toward 2025, the logistics and transportation industry stands on the cusp of transformation. At the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), we’re committed to helping industry leaders navigate these changes with insight and strategy. Here are six trends that we believe will form the competitive landscape of tomorrow.
1. Digital transformation and data integration: Technology continues to reshape every facet of logistics. Advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are becoming increasingly integrated into supply chain operations, driving efficiency, reducing costs, and enabling proactive decision-making.
For companies to succeed, they must invest in technologies that enhance data accuracy and facilitate seamless information sharing. Those that do so will be able to better anticipate disruptions, optimize routes, and improve customer satisfaction.
2. Sustainability: As the global community continues to prioritize environmental responsibility, the logistics sector faces growing pressure to reduce its carbon footprint. The adoption of electric vehicles, alternative fuels, and optimized routes can reduce emissions significantly, and many organizations are setting ambitious targets to lower their environmental impact.
3. Supply chain resilience and flexibility: The capacity to pivot quickly in response to disruptions, whether due to natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, or global pandemics, is no longer a luxury but a necessity. Companies are increasingly adopting flexible supply chain models and focusing on diversification to mitigate risk.
4. Nearshoring and reshoring: Bringing manufacturing closer to home—either by relocating it back to the country of origin (reshoring) or moving it to neighboring regions (nearshoring)—not only enhances supply chain agility but also reduces transportation costs, lowers emissions, and lessens exposure to global disruptions. Companies that embrace these approaches can strengthen their competitive positioning, helping them respond more effectively to fluctuations in demand while maintaining cost efficiency and meeting sustainability goals.
5. Workforce development: The logistics industry is facing a talent shortage, particularly in skilled labor and technology-focused roles. As we advance into a more digitalized landscape, we need a workforce proficient in tech and adaptable to change. Organizations must focus on upskilling and reskilling programs to equip their teams with the necessary knowledge.
6. E-commerce and last-mile solutions: E-commerce growth shows no signs of slowing, and with it comes the challenge of meeting rising consumer expectations for fast, reliable, and sustainable delivery. Last-mile logistics remains one of the most complex and costly segments of the supply chain. Innovative solutions, such as urban microfulfillment centers, autonomous delivery vehicles, and drone deliveries, are paving the way for more efficient last-mile solutions.
Looking Ahead
The future of global logistics and transportation holds both challenges and opportunities. At CSCMP, we are committed to supporting our members through these changes, fostering collaboration and sharing insights to navigate the path forward.
The landscape of 2025 may be unpredictable, but with strategic foresight and a commitment to adaptability, we can shape a prosperous future for logistics and transportation. Together, let’s continue to lead the way forward.