Adrian Gonzalez is the president of Adelante SCM, a peer-to-peer learning, networking, and research community for supply chain and logistics professionals.
If I had to describe the state of the third-party logistics (3PL) industry in one word, it would be convergence. Convergence refers to the merging of distinct technologies, industries, or devices into a unified whole. And that is exactly what is happening in this industry on two fronts.
The first involves the convergence of fragmented logistics services with integrated logistics solutions. This has been happening for many years, primarily via mergers and acquisitions. It is a path toward fulfilling the traditional definition (and promise) of a 3PL. Here is the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' definition:
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[Figure 1] Third-party logistics net revenues by segmentEnlarge this image
A firm that provides multiple logistics services for use by customers. Preferably, these services are integrated, or "bundled" together by the provider. These firms facilitate the movement of parts and materials from suppliers to manufacturers, and finished products from manufacturers to distributors and retailers. Among the services they provide are transportation, warehousing, cross-docking, inventory management, packaging, and freight forwarding.
This convergence of services and broader solutions has also led logistics service providers to drive new growth by expanding globally to support clients across different geographic regions and by targeting new vertical industries, such as health care and energy. Here are just a few examples of this type of expansion from the first half of 2014, in the form of headlines from press releases:
Transplace and Celtic Expand Intermodal Services in Mexico
XPO Logistics Completes Acquisition of Pacer International
Menlo Launches Freight Brokerage Service in Europe
Coyote Logistics and Access America Transport to Merge
UPS Continues Global Healthcare Expansion with Purchase of UK Healthcare Logistics Innovator
The trend toward the convergence of logistics services, coupled with the trend toward geographic and vertical industry expansion, will certainly continue in the months and years ahead as 3PLs fend off the risk of commoditization by positioning themselves as one-stop-shops or end-to-end solution providers. (Figure 1 shows the growth pattern for some of the major 3PL service segments.)
But there's another convergence taking place in the market, one that's driven by the changing needs and expectations of customers. This second convergence is transforming the very definition and value proposition of 3PLs. What we are seeing is the convergence of business models, specifically the business models of service providers, technology companies, and consulting firms.
There already are examples of logistics service providers offering their own software-as-a-service applications (C.H. Robinson and Transplace, to name two), and some consulting firms and software vendors are providing managed services (enVista, Transportation Insight, and LeanLogistics, for example). But that was just the beginning. In recent months, Amazon has embedded itself in Procter & Gamble (P&G) warehouses to fulfill online orders. Google has invested in its own fleet of vehicles to provide delivery services to consumers. And Uber has launched UberRUSH, a local delivery service that lets consumers use a mobile app to arrange for foot or bicycle messengers to pick up and deliver items weighing 30 pounds or less.
Simply put, the traditional definition of a third-party logistics provider is stale and limiting. It's becoming more outmoded every day as innovations in technology and business models continue to transform the competitive landscape. Logistics service providers that focus solely on the convergence of services and ignore the convergence of business models will, at best, limit their growth potential, and at worst, cease to exist.
What business are you in?
What business are you in? That's a question every 3PL needs to ask itself today. As Anthony J. Tjan, chief executive officer and founder of the venture capital firm Cue Ball, wrote in a Harvard Business Review blog post titled "The First Strategic Question Every Business Must Ask," "It seems like a straightforward question, and one that should take no time to answer. But the truth is that most company leaders are too narrow in defining their competitive landscape or market space. They fail to see the potential for 'non-traditional' competitors, and therefore often misperceive their basic business definition and future market space."
That will likely sound familiar to many 3PL executives. But others are following the convergence path, not just providing customers with integrated logistics services like transportation management and warehousing, but also offering technology and business management services.
Some 3PLs, for example, provide software applications, trading partner connectivity, and data-quality management services that provide customers with timely, accurate, and complete visibility to supply chain events, information, and intelligence. Others provide thought leadership and advice, giving their customers new ideas that will help them make smarter and faster decisions about their supply chain networks, strategy, and practices. Some have risk management capabilities to help customers minimize or eliminate supply chain risks and, more importantly, to help them recover from supply chain disruptions more quickly and with less impact.
There are 3PLs that provide all of those things, yet most don't view themselves from those perspectives. But perhaps they should, because all of those services represent opportunities to differentiate themselves from the competition.
Focus on outcomes
What does this all mean for manufacturers and retailers looking for a logistics solution provider?
The first step remains the same: They have to clearly define their desired outcomes. But when it comes to finding the right partner to help them reach those objectives, they need to take a fresh look at the market—beyond the traditional labels of 3PL, software vendor, and consultant. The reality is that manufacturers and retailers have a diversity of options today, and regardless of how it may be labeled, the best outsourcing partner is the one that can provide the right mix of technology, services, and advice to help customers achieve their desired outcomes.
Manufacturers and retailers also have to recognize that the traditional way of managing 3PL relationships—viewing them as suppliers, with short-term agreements that are focused on providing the lowest-cost solution—is also becoming stale and limiting. To reach higher levels of performance and benefits, manufacturers and retailers need to start engaging in true collaboration and exploring vested relationships with their partners. ("Vested," a business model and methodology developed by the University of Tennessee, refers to outsourcing relationships that reward both partners for achieving mutually beneficial outcomes.)
And that would be the ultimate manifestation of convergence: 3PLs and customers developing a joint business plan and shared vision statement that align with the objectives and desired outcomes of the end customers, which in many cases are consumers like you and me.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.