Extreme weather in Q1 made an existing capacity shortage worse. To prepare for more challenges to come, shippers should secure more reliable capacity and reconsider their modal choices.
Logistics managers, always under stress, got no relief in the first quarter of 2014 as they grappled with unprecedented weather-related challenges across the northern half of the country. How bad was it? Here are just a few records that were set in key U.S. transportation hubs, according to the National Weather Service:
Detroit—Snowiest winter recorded, with more than 91 inches, shattering a 133-year-old record
Philadelphia—Second snowiest winter on record, with 69 inches
Chicago—Third snowiest winter ever, with more than 80 inches
The record-setting snowfalls, along with extreme cold and other weather events, resulted in delayed shipments, missed pickups and deliveries, inventory backlogs, and higher costs for both shippers and carriers.
To make matters worse, the spot-market demand for truckload (TL) capacity, as measured by the Internet Truckstop Market Demand Index, reached more than 27 loads per truck in March. That dipped to only 23.6 in April as shippers continued to deal with the aftermath of heavy snowfalls and extreme cold, in some locales even after the snow had melted. Both months were well above their normal ranges over the past five years. As those statistics suggest, demand for transportation services was there, but the capacity to deliver was, literally, snowed in.
Not only did the weather impact shipping, it affected the U.S. economy as well. Although many economists had forecast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1 percent in the first quarter, real GDP instead contracted by 1 percent.
All this followed a pretty uneventful 2013. Data collected by the American Trucking Associations suggests that supply and demand last year were in balance (see Figure 1). Accordingly, freight rates remained stable and the "epic capacity crunch" shippers had expected failed to materialize. As a result, many shippers have been left to wonder whether the first quarter of 2014 was an omen of market conditions to come or an anomaly. Should they gird their organizations for the epic capacity crunch, or merely blame the extent of the capacity shortage on the weather?
The short answer is, probably neither. The likely outcome for 2014 is somewhere between Armageddon and "just another stable year in the market." Nonetheless, market dynamics do appear to be shifting, and shippers need to be prepared.
Modest rate increases likely
From a demand perspective, the slow and bumpy pace of the U.S. economic recovery may last for some time to come. The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. gross domestic product will increase by roughly 3 percent per year for the next four years—hardly a blockbuster growth outlook for the world's biggest economy. The housing market, a key indicator of truckload volumes, has stabilized but remains near 40-year lows. Sales in the automotive sector—another bellwether of TL market health—have leveled off after seeing a strong recovery from the depths of the recession in 2008.
The supply side of the truckload market is under considerable and increasing pressure, partly as operators struggle to keep pace with regulations that are adding cost and creating extra constraints on an already tight market for drivers. Let's consider what that means for shippers in terms of rates, and how they can respond.
Many industry analysts are forecasting a modest increase in linehaul rates this year, somewhere between 2 and 4 percent. Diesel fuel costs also are forecast to increase, albeit gradually, in the immediate future. With costs appearing to be on the rise, smart shippers have been budgeting accordingly.
Weather could still be a factor in the truckload market for the rest of the year. The Atlantic hurricane season officially started on the first of June and will last through November. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted that 2014 will be a "normal" year, with three to six hurricanes, of which one or two will qualify as major. But let's not forget that it only takes one major storm to upset the domestic transportation network, causing freight rates to increase because the government tends to pays top dollar for capacity to aid in disaster-relief efforts.
Suggested strategies
To prepare for these challenges—both market-driven and otherwise—savvy shippers should expand their carrier base and their routing guides. A larger list of vetted carriers allows shippers to tap into more capacity in a calculated progression through trusted partners and, ideally, favorable rate schedules.
They can also include more nonasset-based providers in their carrier base. These brokers can "shop" for trucking capacity when there is excess demand. Fortunately, the increasing popularity of these types of service providers has coincided with a healthy dose of scrutiny from both regulators and investors, which has made using a broker less risky for shippers.
Shippers might also want to consider dedicated contract carriage arrangements. Those with smaller fleet operations (typically fewer than 20 trucks) may benefit from outsourcing to providers of dedicated contract carriage arrangements through cost improvements, access to technology, backhaul opportunities, and the flexibility to expand capacity. Larger fleet operators, meanwhile, are looking to expand their private fleet programs to secure access to capacity and achieve economies of scale on their own.
Finally, shippers should be embracing intermodal and rail transportation. This may sound like common sense, but the reality is that although they are more economical and less capacity-constrained, these modes are underutilized by many shippers.
The trucking market promises to be challenging for shippers on many fronts for some time to come. However, those shippers that invest the time and resources in being prepared will be well-positioned to weather any storm.
Container flows at dozens of U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports shuddered to a simultaneous stop this morning when dockworkers launched a promised strike over pay levels and job automation.
The action is affecting work at major locations such as New York/New Jersey, Savannah, Houston, Charleston, Norfolk, Miami, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Boston, Mobile, Tampa, and Wilmington. That broad span of geographic locations will affect imports and exports for industries spanning retail, automotive, agriculture, food and beverage, and manufacturing, according to an analysis by Overhaul.
Those impacts are forecast to grow rapidly with each additional day the strike continues, since more than 100 vessels are estimated to arrive at the 36 affected ports this week alone, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. The recovery from that backup could take some time, as some shippers estimate that for every one week of strike, it will take 4-6 weeks to fully recover, the firm said.
Because of the sudden stop, logistics providers today are quickly reaching out to shippers and other clients to plan for future cargo movements. Specifically, the strike immediately froze a range of work such as the movement of import and export containers and the loading and unloading of containers, according to German maritime transportation provider Hapag-Lloyd AG. “As a result of this situation, which is beyond our control, we will need to adjust our services or temporarily suspend operations as conditions evolve. Our priority remains the protection of your cargo during this period,” Hapag-Lloyd AG said in a note to shippers.
Despite those large impacts, the timeline is unclear for finding a resolution of negotiations between the union—the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)—and the port management group, United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).
Under those conditions, retail and manufacturing groups have renewed their calls for their White House to step in and force workers back on the job while negotiations resume.
One of those voices came the National Retail Federation (NRF). “NRF urges President Biden to use any and all available authority and tools — including use of the Taft-Hartley Act — to immediately restore operations at all impacted container ports, get the parties back to the negotiating table and ensure there are no further disruptions,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “A disruption of this scale during this pivotal moment in our nation’s economic recovery will have devastating consequences for American workers, their families and local communities. After more than two years of runaway inflationary pressures and in the midst of recovery from Hurricane Helene, this strike will result in further hardship for American families.”
Perfect Planner, a cloud-based platform designed to streamline the material planning and replenishment process, and Flying Ship, an unmanned ground-effect maritime cargo craft, took home the second annual “3 V’s of Supply Chain Innovation Awards” tonight at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
This awards contest is hosted by Supply Chain Xchange and 3 V’s framework creator and supply chain visionary Art Mesher. It serves to recognize those companies that have created technology or automation solutions that exemplify Mesher’s 3 V’s framework of “embracing variability, harnessing visibility, and competing with velocity.”
Business Innovation Award
Art Mesher, creator of the 3 V's Framework (left) and Rick Blasgen (right), former CSCMP President and CEO, present Tom Biel (center), CEO of Perfect Planner, with the 3 V's Business Innovation Award.
Susan Lacefield
Perfect Planner won the 3 V’s Business Innovation Award for its software solution that uses artificial intelligence to automatically generates daily "to-do lists" for material planners/buyers. All the “to-do’s” are ranked in order of criticality. The solution also uses advanced analytics to understand and address inventory shortages and surpluses.
The two other finalists for the Business Innovation Award were AutoScheduler AI, a predictive warehouse optimization platform, and Davinci Micro Fulfillment, which provides a micro fulfillment service out of a network for small distribution centers across the United States.
Best Overall Startup Award
Flying Ship was awarded the Best Overall Startup Award. The company has designed an unmanned flying ground-effect maritime vessel. Although the Flying Ship looks like a small aircraft or large drone, it is classified as a maritime vessel because it does not leave the air cushion over the waves, similar to a hovercraft.
According to Flying Ship CEO Bill Peterson, the craft is 75% less expensive than a traditional aircraft and “faster than anything on water.” The prototype has a wingspan of 6.5 feet and can be scaled up to deliver 10,000 pounds of freight to “anywhere with a coastline” using autonomous systems.
The other startup finalist included Arkestro, a predictive procurement orchestration solution, and Provision AI, an optimized replenishment and transportation scheduling solution.
On Monday morning at CSCMP’s 2024 EDGE Conference, Darcy MacClaren, chief revenue office, digital supply chain, at technology company SAP, lead a lively discussion with a panel of women supply chain leaders on how to recruit, retain, and empower future supply chain leaders.
Panelists included Cindy Cochovity, executive vice president of strategic development at software company FreightPath; Heather Dohrn, chief commercial officer at trucking company Dohrn Transfer Company; Jennifer Kobus, senior vice president of supply chain planning and operations at retailer Ulta Beauty; Ammie McAsey, senior vice president of customer distribution experience at pharmaceutical company McKesson; and Michelle Williams, a supply chain teacher at Clyde C. Miller Career Academy, a high school in St. Louis, Missouri.
Touching on more than just the challenges they faced in supply chain as women, the panelists spoke about creating “destination" companies—places where top talent can work, grow, and thrive. According to MacClaren, younger workers “want more than just competitive compensation—they want to feel appreciated, involved, and inspired. They seek a workplace with a strong, inclusive culture that aligns with their values, offers meaningful work, and provides an opportunity for growth and development.”
The panel covered an array of topics including how to inspire the next generation of talent, strategies for engaging and coaching young professionals, how to attract diversity, and how to address change management. In addition, they shared personal experiences that helped them achieve their leadership roles and ended with some key takeaways for the audience members.
Here’s a snapshot of action items from the discussion:
1. Ensure a diverse slate of candidates for open positions.
2. Leverage internal and external networks to find diverse candidates.
3. Nurture and mentor new hires to help them thrive.
4. Remain authentic, vulnerable, and transparent as a leader.
5. Advocate for yourself and your career progression, not just for your team.
6. Seek out mentors and advocates, especially other women in leadership positions.
7. Open doors and bring others in, regardless of your own position.
Keep ReadingShow less
Supply Chain Xchange Executive Editor Susan Lacefield moderates a panel discussion with Supply Chain Xchange's Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award Winners (from left to right) Annette Danek-Akey, Sherry Harriman, Leslie O'Regan, and Ammie McAsey.
Supply Chain Xchange recognized four women who have made significant contributions to the supply chain management profession today with its second annual Outstanding Women in Supply Chain Award. The award winners include Annette Danek-Akey, Chief Supply Chain Officer at Barnes & Noble; Sherry Harriman, Senior Vice President of Logistics and Supply Chain for Academy Sports + Outdoors; Leslie O’Regan, Director of Product Management for DC Systems & 3PLs at American Eagle Outfitters; and Ammie McAsey, Senior Vice President of Customer Distribution Experience for McKesson’s U.S. Pharmaceutical division.
Throughout their careers, these four supply chain executive have demonstrated strategic thinking, innovative problem solving, and effective leadership as well as a commitment to giving back to the profession.
The awards were presented at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) annual EDGE Conference in Nashville, Tenn. In addition to the awards presentation, the leaders discussed their leadership philosophies and career path during a panel discussion at the EDGE conference.
The surge of “nearshoring” supply chains from China to Mexico offers obvious benefits in cost, geography, and shipping time, as long as U.S. companies are realistic about smoothing out the challenges of the burgeoning trend, according to a panel today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
Those challenges span a list including: developing infrastructure, weak security, manual processes, and shifting regulations, speakers said in a session titled “Nearshoring: Transforming Surface Transportation in the U.S.”
For example, a recent Mexican government rail expansion added lines to tourist destinations in Cancun instead of freight capacity in the Southwest, said panelist Edward Habe, Vice President of Mexico Sales, for Averitt. Truckload cargo inspections may rely on a single person looking at paper filings on the border, instead of a 24/7 online system, said Bob McCloskey, Director for Logistics and Distribution at Clarios, LLC. And business partners inside Mexico often have undisclosed tier-two, tier-three, and tier-four relationships that are difficult to track from the U.S., said Beth Kussatz, Manager of Northern American Network Design & Implementation, Deere & Co.
Still, dedicated companies can work with Mexican authorities, regulators, and providers to overcome those bottlenecks with clever solutions, the panelists agreed. “Don’t be afraid,” Habe said. “It just makes sense in today’s world, the local regionalization of manufacturing. It’s in our interest that this works.”