Editor's Note: In this excerpt adapted from his book, Reinventing the Supply Chain: A 21st-Century Covenant with America, University of Denver supply chain professor Jack Buffington reimagines how U.S. supply chains could be structured. He argues that U.S. supply chains are currently optimized to meet private market objectives and rarely “consider the resiliency needed to ensure the public good in a time of crisis.”
He proposes that public sector investment could be used to develop community-based supply chains that would “advocate for their citizens through innovation and enterprise.” These community-based supply chains, or enterprise zones, would use advanced digital technology to manufacture and sell products first locally and then globally. Buffington argues that these enterprise zones are not meant to displace large companies such as Amazon and Walmart, rather they are to act as their future competitors.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, one of China’s goals has been to create a supply chain strategy that balances itself through “dual circulation,” which means keeping its economy open to the world when it is in China’s best interest to do so, but then pulling back from globalization when its necessary to stabilize its domestic markets. The concept is an intentionally vague term and does not seem to be clearly articulated in any detail in official Chinese government economic plans, but it has been a foundational strategy of the nation since it entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the beginning of the 21st century. It is sometimes described as “capitalism with Chinese characteristics.” …
To compete with this 21st-century model of globalization, the United States needs to develop its own version of dual circulation with American characteristics by creating a community-based supply chain system. … This would involve the creation of an enterprise innovation model that takes advantage of the strengths of the American culture and of a reindustrialization strategy to develop an American Silk Road of sorts. This model would consist of a networked collection of micro-manufacturing hubs at the community level using broadband infrastructure, advanced manufacturing techniques, and a modernized approach to American education. This model would leverage both America’s innovation engine and emerging 21st-century technologies.
This community-based supply chain systems would focus internally first and then project outward to the world, from localization to globalization, to create a “glocal” model. Compared to China’s approach of dual circulation, which controls the balancing of supply and demand through a centralized governmental system in which all roads lead back to Beijing, this American system would work through individualized producer and consumer channels. … The goal would be to reform markets through people, process, and technology, not bureaucracy and policy tactics.
America’s model should be for the public sector to incentivize nodal self-reliance, allowing the individual to express himself or herself through the market. This is a paradigm shift from large-scale global multinational corporations achieving economies of scale, often enabled by large institutions.
Through public investment in community-based infrastructures such as 3D printing and logistics centers, the United States could put communities that have been excluded from economic development for over half a century back on the map. … An entire glocalized supply chain could be constructed both by and for the community and networked across the planet. This networked supply chain could connect to the next town over, to an Asian corporation, to a seaport, or to any municipality worldwide. Such a model offers unlimited possibilities, all within the community’s own control rather than dependent on big government or business.
Think of this community-based system as one that mirrors the internet, a decentralized array of clusters, constantly changing, always connected. Its logistics are virtual algorithms rather than physical routes and destinations. … This model starts virtual and then is physical. Fulfillment in this new model is done virtually as much as possible before transitioning to traditional logistical forms such as warehousing, distribution, transportation, and retail stores.
Take, for example, West Baltimore, a crumbling community plagued by drug dealing and limited to remedial employment opportunities, such as retail food service at minimum wage. If West Baltimore had access to an upgraded broadband infrastructure, an open-source blockchain system to enable transactions, and an advanced manufacturing center to promote production, its schools could teach its students to act as nodes within a community-based supply chain system. A virtual logistics system would allow them to create a network across other communities through the internet. The planning, sourcing, and distribution of materials and services could be transacted through the blockchain. These materials and services could then be manufactured into products and distributed and retailed within a peer-to-peer model. Physical supply chains have flown over and around communities like West Baltimore; digital systems can reintroduce a communal and global approach or glocal virtual logistics.
A proposed glocal model is antithetical to what logistics professionals have been taught for decades: that optimization is a physical point A to B process primarily focused on cheap labor markets and technology. In this new model, let’s call it Logistics 2.0, supply chains will become more virtual than physical. Rather than optimizing from point A to point B to enable cheaper prices for consumers and producers, a digital supply chain system can eliminate these spatial challenges by eliminating these physical limitations and redefining who is a customer and who is a producer. Consumers and producers can be anyone, living anywhere, so as long as they are networked to do so. …
A national platform to kick off a community-based supply chain network would commence through incentives and subsidies for a public broadband infrastructure and public education reform. With this platform in place, a digital infrastructure would network each community in the nation and around the world, similar to how a national railroad system helped to create the physical network of the U.S. supply chain over a century ago. Then each state and local municipality could determine its separate economic development plan, perhaps through the seeding of business case funding for local communities to begin justifying their models. For example, the U.S. government could fund the infrastructure and educational strategy, and Maryland could fund the feasibility study and proof of concept of a community-based supply chain based in the city of Baltimore. If the feasibility study is justified, the federal and state governments could then offer further incentives or subsidies for local communities to purchase additional equipment for the community system, such as 3D printers, information technology equipment, and so on.
Through this model, local entrepreneurs—or nodes—are funded in an innovation-based approach, but one with lower barriers to entry than exist today (such as limits on significant capital funding requirements that make entrepreneurship a high-risk, entry-restricted endeavor). Building this 21st-century model of innovation, entrepreneurship, and supply chain through a community-based network model will take time and will require commitment. It will require iteration as the public and private sectors, as well as the nodes and existing businesses, learn how to compete against existing large multinational corporations. This is the real competitive advantage of this system compared to China’s state-owned enterprises.
Just 29% of supply chain organizations have the competitive characteristics they’ll need for future readiness, according to a Gartner survey released Tuesday. The survey focused on how organizations are preparing for future challenges and to keep their supply chains competitive.
Gartner surveyed 579 supply chain practitioners to determine the capabilities needed to manage the “future drivers of influence” on supply chains, which include artificial intelligence (AI) achievement and the ability to navigate new trade policies. According to the survey, the five competitive characteristics are: agility, resilience, regionalization, integrated ecosystems, and integrated enterprise strategy.
The survey analysis identified “leaders” among the respondents as supply chain organizations that have already developed at least three of the five competitive characteristics necessary to address the top five drivers of supply chain’s future.
Less than a third have met that threshold.
“Leaders shared a commitment to preparation through long-term, deliberate strategies, while non-leaders were more often focused on short-term priorities,” Pierfrancesco Manenti, vice president analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results.
“Most leaders have yet to invest in the most advanced technologies (e.g. real-time visibility, digital supply chain twin), but plan to do so in the next three-to-five years,” Manenti also said in the statement. “Leaders see technology as an enabler to their overall business strategies, while non-leaders more often invest in technology first, without having fully established their foundational capabilities.”
As part of the survey, respondents were asked to identify the future drivers of influence on supply chain performance over the next three to five years. The top five drivers are: achievement capability of AI (74%); the amount of new ESG regulations and trade policies being released (67%); geopolitical fight/transition for power (65%); control over data (62%); and talent scarcity (59%).
The analysis also identified four unique profiles of supply chain organizations, based on what their leaders deem as the most crucial capabilities for empowering their organizations over the next three to five years.
First, 54% of retailers are looking for ways to increase their financial recovery from returns. That’s because the cost to return a purchase averages 27% of the purchase price, which erases as much as 50% of the sales margin. But consumers have their own interests in mind: 76% of shoppers admit they’ve embellished or exaggerated the return reason to avoid a fee, a 39% increase from 2023 to 204.
Second, return experiences matter to consumers. A whopping 80% of shoppers stopped shopping at a retailer because of changes to the return policy—a 34% increase YoY.
Third, returns fraud and abuse is top-of-mind-for retailers, with wardrobing rising 38% in 2024. In fact, over two thirds (69%) of shoppers admit to wardrobing, which is the practice of buying an item for a specific reason or event and returning it after use. Shoppers also practice bracketing, or purchasing an item in a variety of colors or sizes and then returning all the unwanted options.
Fourth, returns come with a steep cost in terms of sustainability, with returns amounting to 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste in 2023 alone.
“As returns have become an integral part of the shopper experience, retailers must balance meeting sky-high expectations with rising costs, environmental impact, and fraudulent behaviors,” Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro, said in the firm’s “2024 Returns Unwrapped” report. “By understanding shoppers’ behaviors and preferences around returns, retailers can create returns experiences that embrace their needs while driving deeper loyalty and protecting their bottom line.”
Facing an evolving supply chain landscape in 2025, companies are being forced to rethink their distribution strategies to cope with challenges like rising cost pressures, persistent labor shortages, and the complexities of managing SKU proliferation.
1. Optimize labor productivity and costs. Forward-thinking businesses are leveraging technology to get more done with fewer resources through approaches like slotting optimization, automation and robotics, and inventory visibility.
2. Maximize capacity with smart solutions. With e-commerce volumes rising, facilities need to handle more SKUs and orders without expanding their physical footprint. That can be achieved through high-density storage and dynamic throughput.
3. Streamline returns management. Returns are a growing challenge, thanks to the continued growth of e-commerce and the consumer practice of bracketing. Businesses can handle that with smarter reverse logistics processes like automated returns processing and reverse logistics visibility.
4. Accelerate order fulfillment with robotics. Robotic solutions are transforming the way orders are fulfilled, helping businesses meet customer expectations faster and more accurately than ever before by using autonomous mobile robots (AMRs and robotic picking.
5. Enhance end-of-line packaging. The final step in the supply chain is often the most visible to customers. So optimizing packaging processes can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and support sustainability goals through automated packaging systems and sustainability initiatives.
That clash has come as retailers have been hustling to adjust to pandemic swings like a renewed focus on e-commerce, then swiftly reimagining store experiences as foot traffic returned. But even as the dust settles from those changes, retailers are now facing renewed questions about how best to define their omnichannel strategy in a world where customers have increasing power and information.
The answer may come from a five-part strategy using integrated components to fortify omnichannel retail, EY said. The approach can unlock value and customer trust through great experiences, but only when implemented cohesively, not individually, EY warns.
The steps include:
1. Functional integration: Is your operating model and data infrastructure siloed between e-commerce and physical stores, or have you developed a cohesive unit centered around delivering seamless customer experience?
2. Customer insights: With consumer centricity at the heart of operations, are you analyzing all touch points to build a holistic view of preferences, behaviors, and buying patterns?
3. Next-generation inventory: Given the right customer insights, how are you utilizing advanced analytics to ensure inventory is optimized to meet demand precisely where and when it’s needed?
4. Distribution partnerships: Having ensured your customers find what they want where they want it, how are your distribution strategies adapting to deliver these choices to them swiftly and efficiently?
5. Real estate strategy: How is your real estate strategy interconnected with insights, inventory and distribution to enhance experience and maximize your footprint?
When approached cohesively, these efforts all build toward one overarching differentiator for retailers: a better customer experience that reaches from brand engagement and order placement through delivery and return, the EY study said. Amid continued volatility and an economy driven by complex customer demands, the retailers best set up to win are those that are striving to gain real-time visibility into stock levels, offer flexible fulfillment options and modernize merchandising through personalized and dynamic customer experiences.
Geopolitical rivalries, alliances, and aspirations are rewiring the global economy—and the imposition of new tariffs on foreign imports by the U.S. will accelerate that process, according to an analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Without a broad increase in tariffs, world trade in goods will keep growing at an average of 2.9% annually for the next eight years, the firm forecasts in its report, “Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade.” But the routes goods travel will change markedly as North America reduces its dependence on China and China builds up its links with the Global South, which is cementing its power in the global trade map.
“Global trade is set to top $29 trillion by 2033, but the routes these goods will travel is changing at a remarkable pace,” Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director and partner at BCG, said in a release. “Trade lanes were already shifting from historical patterns and looming US tariffs will accelerate this. Navigating these new dynamics will be critical for any global business.”
To understand those changes, BCG modeled the direct impact of the 60/25/20 scenario (60% tariff on Chinese goods, a 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 20% on imports from all other countries). The results show that the tariffs would add $640 billion to the cost of importing goods from the top ten U.S. import nations, based on 2023 levels, unless alternative sources or suppliers are found.
In terms of product categories imported by the U.S., the greatest impact would be on imported auto parts and automotive vehicles, which would primarily affect trade with Mexico, the EU, and Japan. Consumer electronics, electrical machinery, and fashion goods would be most affected by higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Specifically, the report forecasts that a 60% tariff rate would add $61 billion to cost of importing consumer electronics products from China into the U.S.