Donald Trump has been clear that he plans to hit the ground running after his inauguration on January 20, launching ambitious plans that could have significant repercussions for global supply chains.
With a new white paper—"The threat of resiliency and sustainability in global supply chain management: Expectations for 2025”—the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) seeks to provide some guidance on what companies can expect for the first year of the second Trump Administration.
As Mark Baxa, CSCMP president and CEO, says in the executive forward to the white paper, the incoming Trump Administration and a majority Republican congress are “poised to reshape trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and the very fabric of how we approach global commerce.”
The paper is written by import/export expert Thomas Cook, managing director for Blue Tiger International, a U.S.-based supply chain management consulting company that focuses on international trade. Cook is the former CEO of American River International in New York and Apex Global Logistics Supply Chain Operation in Los Angeles and has written 19 books on global trade.
In the paper, Cook, of course, takes a close look at tariff implications and new trade deals, emphasizing that Trump will seek revisions that will favor U.S. businesses and encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. The paper, however, also looks beyond global trade to addresses topics such as Trump’s tougher stance on immigration and the possibility of mass deportations, greater support of Israel in the Middle East, proposals for increased energy production and mining, and intent to end the war in the Ukraine.
In general, Cook believes that many of the administration’s new policies will be beneficial to the overall economy. He does warn, however, that some policies will be disruptive and add risk and cost to global supply chains.
In light of those risks and possible disruptions, Cook’s paper offers 14 recommendations. Some of which include:- Create a team responsible for studying the changes Trump will introduce when he takes office;
- Attend trade shows and make connections with vendors, suppliers, and service providers who can help you navigate those changes;
- Consider becoming C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) certified to help mitigate potential import/export issues;
- Adopt a risk management mindset and shift from focusing on lowest cost to best value for your spend;
- Increase collaboration with internal and external partners;
- Expect warehousing costs to rise in the short term as companies look to bring in foreign-made goods ahead of tariffs;
- Expect greater scrutiny from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol of origin statements for imports in recognition of attempts by some Chinese manufacturers to evade U.S. import policies;
- Reduce dependency on China for sourcing; and
- Consider manufacturing and/or sourcing in the United States.
Cook advises readers to expect a loosening up of regulations and a reduction in government under Trump. He warns that while some world leaders will look to work with Trump, others will take more of a defiant stance. As a result, companies should expect to see retaliatory tariffs and duties on exports.
Cook concludes by offering advice to the incoming administration, including being sensitive to the effect retaliatory tariffs can have on American exports, working on federal debt reduction, and considering promoting free trade zones. He also proposes an ambitious water works program through the Army Corps of Engineers.
The 33-page white paper can be downloaded from CSCMP’s website for free.
