Donna Palumbo-Miele is the current board chair of CSCMP. She is executive director of Penn State’s Center for Supply Chain Research and founder of Concordia Supply Chain Group LLC.
As I assume the role of Chair of the Board of Directors for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), I fondly reflect on the more than 10 years that I’ve had the privilege of being part of this extraordinary organization. I’ve seen firsthand the impact we have had on individuals, companies, and the entire supply chain profession.
CSCMP’s journey as an organization began back in 1963. It has since grown from a small, passionate community to the world’s premier association for supply chain professionals. Our mission—to connect, educate, and develop supply chain professionals throughout their careers—remains not only relevant, but vital in today’s world.
As we look ahead, the opportunities are vast. What stands out the most to me is simply this:We are stronger together. Every individual brings a unique perspective, and it’s through our collective wisdom and efforts that we will continue to advance the work we do. The road ahead is not one we travel alone. It’s a path we navigate as a community—one united in purpose and direction.
My vision for the year ahead centers around growth—growth in our global reach and, perhaps even more importantly, growth in how we engage and support each other. We have tremendous opportunities for international expansion, especially in Europe, the U.K., Mexico, Central and South America, and Canada. I’m happy to share that we're already seeing progress in our reach to these regions.
I'm incredibly excited about the potential for even more growth ahead. One of the initiatives I am most passionate about is our Centers of Excellence. These centers will provide members the space to engage deeply in key supply chain disciplines. I invite each of you to dive into these areas, share your experiences, and contribute to the innovative solutions we develop together. There will be plenty of opportunity to do so. These centers are not only academic spaces—they are hubs for innovation, where we can share best practices and work together to solve our industry’s biggest challenges.
Education and thought leadership will continue to be at the heart of what we do. By expanding our research capacity, we will offer cutting-edge insights that keep our members at the forefront of industry trends and innovation. Through our platforms, we will create even more opportunities for connection and collaboration—ensuring that every voice is heard. Your insights, curiosity, questions, and engagement will drive the transformation we seek. We all play a part in the advancement of our industry and our profession.
Our impact begins with membership. Expanding collaborations with public, private, and nonprofit sectors will give us new ways to drive progress. In a world where our ecosystem is even more interconnected than ever before, the ability to engage with diverse stakeholders will help us unlock new solutions and truly make a difference on a global scale. None of this would be possible without the strong foundation that has been built over the years by serving our supply chain community. Each of you holds the ability to shape the future of the supply chain, and I can’t wait to see what we will achieve together.
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, his promises of sweeping tariffs—including an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% to 20% universal tariff on all other imports—have businesses rethinking their supply chains. The potential impact of these tariffs is expected to be substantial and wide-ranging, affecting numerous industries like automotive, manufacturing, industrial, defense, pharmaceuticals, and high-tech electronics. The impact will be particularly acute for consumer goods.
Many companies are already taking proactive measures to mitigate risks and prepare for various scenarios. Some are accelerating efforts to diversify their production away from China, while others are stockpiling inventory in the U.S. before the new administration takes office. No matter what tactic they are taking, one effect is certain: Companies need to reevaluate their supply chain strategies.
My company Resilinc has identified five key ways that Trump’s proposed tariffs will affect supply chains. Companies should carefully consider how each of these consequences will impact their supply chains and what responses they should take to mitigate the changes.
#1 Increase in prices
Tariffs could have far-reaching effects on consumer goods, including those produced domestically. Many products that Americans use daily rely on imported components. A substantial portion of items manufactured in the U.S.—from appliances and industrial goods to pharmaceuticals, cars, and electronics—include imported parts. For instance, key smartphone components such as processors, displays, and batteries are often sourced from countries like China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Tariffs will make the cost to produce and sell all of these goods significantly higher. If these cost increases are passed on to consumers, tariffs could ultimately influence consumer purchasing behavior. This might include reduced demand or shifts in preferences toward products not subject to tariffs.
#2 Change in freight flows and rates
The potential impact extends beyond just the cost of goods. The shipping industry is likely to see significant changes as well. In the short term, freight rates could spike as retailers rush to buy safety stock ahead of potential tariff implementations. However, in the longer term, broad tariffs could discourage imports, potentially slowing freight volumes at ports and driving down rates. This could have a ripple effect throughout the entire supply chain ecosystem.
#3 Retaliatory tariffs from other countries
When Trump was previously in office, the administration applied tariffs on steel, aluminum Chinese imports, and automotive imports. Within a year, other countries enacted numerous retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports in response. Some of the key products targeted included U.S. soybeans, pork, whiskey, and automobiles. Exports to China, the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, dropped by nearly 75% in 2018 due to retaliatory tariffs and export volumes of some machinery products and vehicles dropped by 10%–20%. China placed tariffs on tens of billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. exports, and The European Union and Canada responded to steel and aluminum tariffs by imposing tariffs of their own. While it will be hard to predict how different countries will react this time, similar reactions are likely.
#4 Increased interest in nearshoring/reshoring
The proposed tariffs are likely to accelerate the trend of nearshoring and reshoring, with countries like Mexico potentially benefiting. Mexico is becoming more attractive due to its low labor costs, proximity, and potentially lower tariffs compared to China. In fact, Mexico was the United States’ top trading partner in 2024, surpassing China for the first time in over 20 years. In recent years, as companies have started increasing nearshoring initiatives, Mexico has become a critical part of these strategies. With costs potentially rising for Chinese goods, Central America could benefit as a nearshore option—even with a 10% tariff. Other countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India are also emerging as alternatives to China.
However, both nearshoring and reshoring come with their own challenges. Setting up a new factory can be extremely costly and time intensive. Plus, labor in the U.S. is expensive. The average manufacturing wage as of January 2022 in the U.S. was $24.55 per hour, compared to an average of $2.80 per hour in Mexico.
Next, China has dominated as the “world’s factory” for a long time; its ecosystem of easy-to-find vendors for components of manufactured products will be hard to replicate. Scaling suppliers and finding availability of certain products and parts could prove difficult in the U.S., at least for the next few years. If a company reshores product assembly to the U.S., for example, but is still reliant on nuts and bolts from Chinese or Taiwanese suppliers, it has not solved its supply chain problem. Establishing new supplier networks can be time-intensive and costly.
While reshoring may help companies avoid tariffs, it introduces new challenges. For instance, Intel’s effort to establish a semiconductor plant in Arizona faces the hurdle of water scarcity, a critical issue for facilities that require an uninterrupted water supply. Meanwhile, Intel’s planned site in Ohio avoids this issue but faces a shortage of workers.
To be clear, the U.S. is not a risk-free region. Nowhere is risk-free. By reshoring or nearshoring, companies may mitigate certain risks but encounter a new set of uncertainties, potentially impacting supply chain stability.
#5 Tariffs may be applied unevenly
Companies are not just passively waiting for these changes to occur. Following the tariffs previously enacted under the Trump Administration, many U.S. companies responded by lobbying for product exemptions to safeguard their finances and operations. Apple, for instance, received 10 out of 15 requested exemptions for items like computer chargers and mice that were solely available from China. This time, certain products may face even greater tariff impacts. Automotive parts, which frequently across the Mexico-U.S. border, could incur rising costs with each crossing, prompting automakers to lobby for exemptions.
On the opposite side of the equation, the Trump administration may consider imposing tariffs on specific companies instead of country-specific tariffs. For instance, Chinese companies have increasingly shifted production to countries like Vietnam, making China Vietnam's largest trading partner in 2023, with trade totaling $172 billion. To prevent Chinese products from being rerouted through other countries to reach the U.S., the administration may impose targeted measures aimed at companies. In recent years, for instance, the U.S. has imposed significant sanctions on Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei and ZTE, citing national security concerns.
How companies can prepare
To prepare for these potential changes, companies are advised to take several key steps. The most critical (and foundational) step companies can take is to map their entire subtier supplier network—identifying where their products and components originate and which could be affected.
Additional key steps for readiness include:
1. Modeling “what-if” scenarios to quantify potential business impacts.
2. Preparing detailed data for exclusion requests and to support rapid adjustments.
3. Evaluating supply chain diversification options, balancing risks and benefits by region.
4. Anticipating potential shifts in consumer behavior and financial impacts.
5. Closely monitoring announcements on tariffs and exemption procedures.
The next year is expected to be a dynamic one for global supply chains. Trump's proposed tariffs are already having a significant impact, even before any official policies have been implemented. To prepare, companies must expect uncertainty and create an action plan now—not later. Companies that have already mapped their supply chains and collected comprehensive data will be better positioned to respond quickly and effectively as tariffs are rolled out.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).