Businesses engaged in international trade face three major supply chain hurdles as they head into 2025: the disruptions caused by Chinese New Year (CNY), the looming threat of potential tariffs on foreign-made products that could be imposed by the incoming Trump Administration, and the unresolved contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), according to an analysis from trucking and logistics provider Averitt.
Each of those factors could lead to significant shipping delays, production slowdowns, and increased costs, Averitt said.
First, Chinese New Year 2025 begins on January 29, prompting factories across China and other regions to shut down for weeks, typically causing production to halt and freight demand to skyrocket. The ripple effects can range from increased shipping costs to extended lead times, disrupting even the most well-planned operations. To prepare for that event, shippers should place orders early, build inventory buffers, secure freight space in advance, diversify shipping modes, and communicate with logistics providers, Averitt said.
Second, new or increased tariffs on foreign-made goods could drive up the cost of imports, disrupt established supply chains, and create uncertainty in the marketplace. In turn, shippers may face freight rate volatility and capacity constraints as businesses rush to stockpile inventory ahead of tariff deadlines. To navigate these challenges, shippers should prepare advance shipments and inventory stockpiling, diversity sourcing, negotiate supplier agreements, explore domestic production, and leverage financial strategies.
Third, unresolved contract negotiations between the ILA and the USMX will come to a head by January 15, when the current contract expires. Labor action or strikes could cause severe disruptions at East and Gulf Coast ports, triggering widespread delays and bottlenecks across the supply chain. To prepare for the worst, shippers should adopt a similar strategy to the other potential January threats: collaborate early, secure freight, diversify supply chains, and monitor policy changes.
According to Averitt, companies can cushion the impact of all three challenges by deploying a seamless, end-to-end solution covering the entire path from customs clearance to final-mile delivery. That strategy can help businesses to store inventory closer to their customers, mitigate delays, and reduce costs associated with supply chain disruptions. And combined with proactive communication and real-time visibility tools, the approach allows companies to maintain control and keep their supply chains resilient in the face of global uncertainties, Averitt said.
Third-party logistics (3PL) providers’ share of large real estate leases across the U.S. rose significantly through the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same time last year, as more retailers and wholesalers have been outsourcing their warehouse and distribution operations to 3PLs, according to a report from real estate firm CBRE.
Specifically, 3PLs’ share of bulk industrial leasing activity—covering leases of 100,000 square feet or more—rose to 34.1% through Q3 of this year from 30.6% through Q3 last year. By raw numbers, 3PLs have accounted for 498 bulk leases so far this year, up by 9% from the 457 at this time last year.
By category, 3PLs’ share of 34.1% ranked above other occupier types such as: general retail and wholesale (26.6), food and beverage (9.0), automobiles, tires, and parts (7.9), manufacturing (6.2), building materials and construction (5.6), e-commerce only (5.6), medical (2.7), and undisclosed (2.3).
On a quarterly basis, bulk leasing by 3PLs has steadily increased this year, reversing the steadily decreasing trend of 2023. CBRE pointed to three main reasons for that resurgence:
Import Flexibility. Labor disruptions, extreme weather patterns, and geopolitical uncertainty have led many companies to diversify their import locations. Using 3PLs allows for more inventory flexibility, a key component to retailer success in times of uncertainty.
Capital Allocation/Preservation. Warehousing and distribution of goods is expensive, draining capital resources for transportation costs, rent, or labor. But outsourcing to 3PLs provides companies with more flexibility to increase or decrease their inventories without any risk of signing their own lease commitments. And using a 3PL also allows companies to switch supply chain costs from capital to operational expenses.
Focus on Core Competency. Outsourcing their logistics operations to 3PLs allows companies to focus on core business competencies that drive revenue, such as product development, sales, and customer service.
Looking into the future, these same trends will continue to drive 3PL warehouse demand, CBRE said. Economic, geopolitical and supply chain uncertainty will remain prevalent in the coming quarters but will not diminish the need to effectively manage inventory levels.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."
2024 was expected to be a bounce-back year for the logistics industry. We had the pandemic in the rearview mirror, and the economy was proving to be more resilient than expected, defying those prognosticators who believed a recession was imminent.
While most of the economy managed to stabilize in 2024, the logistics industry continued to see disruption and changes in international trade. World events conspired to drive much of the narrative surrounding the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, a diminished reliance on China as a source for goods reduced some of the international trade flow from that manufacturing hub. Some of this trade diverted to other Asian nations, while nearshoring efforts brought some production back to North America, particularly Mexico.
Meanwhile trucking in the United States continued its 2-year recession, highlighted by weaker demand and excess capacity. Both contributed to a slow year, especially for truckload carriers that comprise about 90% of over-the-road shipments.
Labor issues were also front and center in 2024, as ports and rail companies dealt with threats of strikes, which resulted in new contracts and increased costs. Labor—and often a lack of it—continues to be an ongoing concern in the logistics industry.
In this annual issue, we bring a year-end perspective to these topics and more. Our issue is designed to complement CSCMP’s 35th Annual State of Logistics Report, which was released in June, and includes updates that were presented at the CSCMP EDGE conference held in October. In addition to this overview of the market, we have engaged top industry experts to dig into the status of key logistics sectors.
Hopefully as we move into 2025, logistics markets will build on an improving economy and strong consumer demand, while stabilizing those parts of the industry that could use some adrenaline, such as trucking. By this time next year, we hope to see a full recovery as the market fulfills its promise to deliver the needs of our very connected world.
Supply chains are subjected to constant change, and the most recent five years have forced supply chain professionals to navigate unprecedented issues, adapt to shifting demand patterns, and deal with unanticipated volatility and, to some extent, “black swan” events.
As a result, change management has become an essential capability to help improve supply chain operations, support collaboration both internally and with external partners, deploy new technology, and adapt to sometimes continually changing market pressures. Recognizing this importance, the 2025 Annual Third-Party Logistics Study (www.3PLStudy.com) took an in-depth look at change management. The majority of respondents to the study’s global survey—61% of shippers and 73% of 3PLs—reported that the need for supply chain change management is either critical or significant.
Shippers says that the biggest drivers of change in their supply chain organizations are customer demands, economic factors, and technological advancements.
2025 Annual Third-Party Logistics Study
Figure 1 above focuses on several factors that were identified as likely drivers of change in supply chains. Among shippers, the biggest drivers of change in their supply chain organizations included customer demands, economic factors, and technological advancements. Other factors included supplier considerations, societal shifts, and labor restraints. 3PL responses were similar to shippers’ except 3PLs ranked labor restraints as the fourth most important driver of change.
The study also asked respondents to identify areas in need of change. The most-identified area was supply chain visibility, cited by 69% of shippers and 68% of 3PLs. Technology, planning, and relationships also ranked highly.
Respondents also reported varying degrees of receptivity to change. About one-fourth of shippers and 3PLs said they are extremely receptive to change, while 45% of shippers and 53% of 3PLs said their organizations are moderately receptive to change.
AI underscores need for change management
Most supply chain professionals agree that the need to embrace change is likely to continue to increase. Technology is advancing rapidly, and artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are creating new opportunities to increase efficiency, improve decision-making, and optimize operations within the supply chain.
Among the many pertinent messages that received attention at the 2024 CSCMP EDGE Supply Chain Conference and Exhibition was that nearly every aspect of the supply chain will be involved with or impacted by AI. Example areas where significant improvements and results may be achieved include demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse operations, predictive equipment maintenance, supplier relationship management, and more. As a result, AI may bring change to nearly every aspect of supply chain management and every level of employee.
This year’s 3PL study also focused on the growing role of AI in supply chains. Shippers and 3PLs are aligned on the top use cases for AI, with supply and demand forecasting and transportation and route optimization ranking at the top. Order management also ranked highly for both groups, while 3PLs see a slightly higher use case for warehouse automation than do shippers.
Both groups are also aligned on their view of AI as a tool that can automate data analysis, identify patterns, solve problems, and automate repetitive and mundane tasks. The hope is that AI will help companies better use their data to make improved and informed decisions. AI can process data and identify patterns and repetitive operational issues faster than a human can, which can improve forecasting, uncover inefficiencies, optimize processes, make predictions, and increase resiliency. Machine learning, a subset of AI, is expected to be especially useful for solving complex logistics problems by refining its predictions and recommendations over time to create more efficient operations.
Shippers and 3PLs agree that the greatest return on investment from AI will come from service-level improvements—cited by 40% of shippers and 37% of 3PLs—as well as data accuracy, cited by 34% of shippers and 39% of 3PLs.
Given the potential benefits of AI, shippers will increasingly be looking for 3PLs that offer AI solutions that they can use to achieve reliable results and gain a competitive advantage. Nearly three-quarters of shippers said 3PLs’ use of AI would influence their choice of a 3PL partner. On a more granular basis, 13% of shippers reported that they are very likely to switch 3PL providers based on their AI capabilities, 29% said they are likely, and 32% said they are somewhat likely to switch 3PL providers based on their AI capabilities. As demand for AI-based solutions increases, 3PL offerings will evolve, further exacerbating the change that supply chain organizations are experiencing.
Realizing benefits from change management
While the ability to manage change is critical to survival, so too is the ability to determine when change may be needed. To determine whether they need to change, companies should start by assessing their current state and opportunities for improvement. Next, they need to identify the desired state and benefits of change. To help drive success, the change management strategy should create a vision, identify solutions, and develop a plan for change.
For successful change to occur, stakeholders must work together to operate as a systematic supply chain rather than working as individuals with departmental goals that may not align. It is also critical to gain support for the change initiative among those who may be involved. Educating stakeholders about the need for change, creating a clear vision of what the change will accomplish, and outlining the benefits can help build support.
Many companies have found that using a structured change management process can reduce resistance to change, improve communication, and increase the likelihood of success. In the study, 58% of shippers and 76% of 3PLs reported using a change management framework. The two most frequently cited frameworks used by both shippers and 3PLs were the McKinsey 7-S (which identifies seven factors that influence an organization’s ability to change) and the ADKAR change management model (awareness, desire, knowledge, ability, and reinforcement). Use of an in-house proprietary system was cited by 36% of shippers and 29% of 3PLs.
The good news for those in supply chain is that key stakeholders are dedicated to minimizing disruptions, enhancing agility, and ensuring long-term success. In this year’s study, 89% of shippers reported that they are committed to the success of the broader, end-to-end (E2E) supply chain. It is clear that shippers sense a deep commitment to the broader concept of supply chain management and recognize the need to align themselves with multiple supply chain participants to create value for their end-user customers and consumers. What’s more, 64% of shippers reported that their 3PLs share this commitment to the E2E concept, and 69% indicated that some of their 3PLs are involved with their change management processes. Also encouraging is that 77% of shippers agree that their 3PLs are enthusiastic about joint efforts relating to change management.
In the complex and ever-evolving world of supply chains, change is inevitable. With effective change management practices in place, shippers and 3PLs can navigate these changes with greater confidence and turn them into opportunities for growth and improvement.
The federal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) yesterday proposed a rule that would mandate some surface transportation owners and operators, including those running pipelines and railroads, to meet certain cyber risk management and reporting requirements.
The new rule would require:
Owner/operators of pipelines and/or railroads that have a higher cybersecurity risk profiles to establish and maintain a comprehensive cyber risk management program;
Owner/operators that are currently required to report significant physical security concerns to TSA to also report cybersecurity incidents to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and
Higher-risk pipeline owner/operators to designate a physical security coordinator and report significant physical security concerns to TSA.
"TSA has collaborated closely with its industry partners to increase the cybersecurity resilience of the nation's critical transportation infrastructure," TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a release. "The requirements in the proposed rule seek to build on this collaborative effort and further strengthen the cybersecurity posture of surface transportation stakeholders. We look forward to industry and public input on this proposed regulation."
The notice came a week after a White House representative warned the trucking freight industry that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has remained the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S. government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks. The briefing came from a member of the administration’s Office of the National Cyber Director, in an address to attendees at the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA)’s Cybersecurity Conference.
“In January, the National Cyber Director testified in front of Congress along with colleagues from CISA, NSA, and the FBI about this threat from the PRC, dubbed Volt Typhoon,” speaker Stephen Viña said in his remarks. “Volt Typhoon conducted cyber operations focused not on financial gain, espionage, or state secrets but on developing deep access to our critical infrastructure. This includes the energy sector transportation systems, among many others. A prolonged interruption to these critical services could disrupt our ability to mobilize in the event of a national emergency or conflict and can create panic among our citizens. Ultimately, if trucking stops, America stops.”