Regardless of the elected administration, the future likely holds significant changes for trade, taxes, and regulatory compliance. As a result, it’s crucial that U.S. businesses avoid making decisions contingent on election outcomes, and instead focus on resilience, agility, and growth, according to California-based Propel, which provides a product value management (PVM) platform for manufacturing, medical device, and consumer electronics industries.
“Now is not the time to wait for the dust to settle,” Ross Meyercord, CEO of Propel, said in a release. “Companies should approach this election cycle as an opportunity to thrive in the face of constant change by proactively investing in technology and talent that keeps them nimble. Businesses always need to be prepared for changing tariffs, taxes, or geopolitical tensions that lead to unexpected interruptions – that’s just the new normal.”
In Propel’s analysis, a Trump administration would bring a continuation of corporate tax cuts intended to bolster American manufacturing. However, Trump’s suggestion for spiraling tariffs may benefit certain industries, but would drive up costs for businesses reliant on global supply chains.
In contrast, a Harris administration would likely continue the current push for regulatory reforms that support sectors like AI, digital assets, and manufacturing while protecting consumer rights. Harris would also likely prioritize strategic investments in new technologies and provide tax incentives to promote growth in underserved areas.
And regardless of the new administration, the real challenge will come from a potentially divided Congress, which could impact everything from trade negotiations to tax policies, Propel said.
“The election outcome is less material for businesses,” Meyercord said. “What is important is quickly adapting to shifting policies or disruptions that address ‘what if’ scenarios and having the ability to pivot your strategy. A responsive manufacturing sector will have a significant impact on the broader economy, driving growth and favorably influencing GDP. One thing is clear: the only certainty is change.”
That changing landscape is forcing companies to adapt or replace their traditional approaches to product design and production. Specifically, many are changing the way they run factories by optimizing supply chains, increasing sustainability, and integrating after-sales services into their business models.
“North American manufacturers have embraced the factory of the future. Working with service providers, many companies are using AI and the cloud to make production systems more efficient and resilient,” Bob Krohn, partner at ISG, said in the “2024 ISG Provider Lens Manufacturing Industry Services and Solutions report for North America.”
To get there, companies in the region are aggressively investing in digital technologies, especially AI and ML, for product design and production, ISG says. Under pressure to bring new products to market faster, manufacturers are using AI-enabled tools for more efficient design and rapid prototyping. And generative AI platforms are already in use at some companies, streamlining product design and engineering.
At the same time, North American manufacturers are seeking to increase both revenue and customer satisfaction by introducing services alongside or instead of traditional products, the report says. That includes implementing business models that may include offering subscription, pay-per-use, and asset-as-a-service options. And they hope to extend product life cycles through an increasing focus on after-sales servicing, repairs. and condition monitoring.
Additional benefits of manufacturers’ increased focus on tech include better handling of cybersecurity threats and data privacy regulations. It also helps build improved resilience to cope with supply chain disruptions by adopting cloud-based supply chain management, advanced analytics, real-time IoT tracking, and AI-enabled optimization.
“The changes of the past several years have spurred manufacturers into action,” Jan Erik Aase, partner and global leader, ISG Provider Lens Research, said in a release. “Digital transformation and a culture of continuous improvement can position them for long-term success.”
GE Vernova today said it plans to invest nearly $600 million in its U.S. factories and facilities over the next two years to support its energy businesses, which make equipment for generating electricity through gas power, grid, nuclear, and onshore wind.
The company was created just nine months ago as a spin-off from its parent corporation, General Electric, with a mission to meet surging global electricity demands. That move created a company with some 18,000 workers across 50 states in the U.S., with 18 U.S. manufacturing facilities and its global headquarters located in Massachusetts. GE Vernova’s technology helps produce approximately 25% of the world’s energy and is currently deployed in more than 140 countries.
The new investments – expected to create approximately 1,500 new U.S. jobs – will help drive U.S. energy affordability, national security, and competitiveness, and enable the American manufacturing footprint needed to support expanding global exports, the company said. They follow more than $167 million in funding in 2024 across a range of GE Vernova sites, helping create more than 1,120 jobs. And following a forecast that worldwide energy needs are on pace to double, GE Vernova is also planning a $9 billion cumulative global capex and R&D investment plan through 2028.
The new investments include:
almost $300 million in support of its Gas Power business and build-out of capacity to make heavy duty gas turbines, for facilities in Greenville, SC, Schenectady, NY, Parsippany, NJ, and Bangor, ME.
nearly $20 million to expand capacity at its Grid Solutions facilities in Charleroi, PA, which manufactures switchgear, and Clearwater, FL, which produces capacitors and instrument transformers.
more than $50 million to enhance safety, quality and productivity at its Wilmington, NC-based GE Hitachi nuclear business and to launch its next generation nuclear fuel design.
nearly $100 million in its manufacturing facilities at U.S. onshore wind factories in Pensacola, FL, Schenectady, NY and Grand Forks, ND, and its remanufacturing facilities in Amarillo, TX.
more than $10 million in its Pittsburgh, PA facility to expand capabilities across its Electrification segment, adding U.S. manufacturing capacity to support the U.S. grid, and demand for solar and energy storage
almost $100 million for its energy innovation research hub, the Advanced Research Center in Niskayuna, NY, to strengthen the center’s electrification and carbon efforts, enable continued recruitment of top-tier talent, and push forward innovative technologies, including $15 million for Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) work.
“These investments represent our serious commitment and responsibility as the leading energy manufacturer in the United States to help meet America’s and the world’s accelerating energy demand,” Scott Strazik, CEO of GE Vernova, said in a release. “These strategic investments and the jobs they create aim to both help our customers meet the doubling of demand and accelerate American innovation and technology development to boost the country’s energy security and global competitiveness.”
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
That result came from the company’s “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index,” an indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses. The October index number was -0.39, which was up only slightly from its level of -0.43 in September.
Researchers found a steep rise in slack across North American supply chains due to declining factory activity in the U.S. In fact, purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers made their strongest cutbacks to buying volumes in nearly a year and a half, indicating that factories in the world's largest economy are preparing for lower production volumes, GEP said.
Elsewhere, suppliers feeding Asia also reported spare capacity in October, albeit to a lesser degree than seen in Western markets. Europe's industrial plight remained a key feature of the data in October, as vendor capacity was significantly underutilized, reflecting a continuation of subdued demand in key manufacturing hubs across the continent.
"We're in a buyers' market. October is the fourth straight month that suppliers worldwide reported spare capacity, with notable contractions in factory demand across North America and Europe, underscoring the challenging outlook for Western manufacturers," Todd Bremer, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "President-elect Trump inherits U.S. manufacturers with plenty of spare capacity while in contrast, China's modest rebound and strong expansion in India demonstrate greater resilience in Asia."
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Supply chain professionals should be aware of how the different policies proposed by the U.S. presidential candidates would affect supply chain operations.
For both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the revival of domestic manufacturing is a key campaign theme and centerpiece in their respective proposals for economic growth and national security. Amid the electioneering and campaign pledges, however, the centrality of supply chain policy is being lost in the shuffle. While both candidates want to make the supply chain less dependent on China and to rebuild the American industrial base, their approaches will impact manufacturing, allied sectors, and global supply chains much differently despite the common overlay of protectionist industrial policy.
Both Trump’s “America First” and Harris’ “Opportunity Economy” policies call for moving home parts of supply chains, like those that bring to market critical products like semiconductors, pharmaceutical products, and medical supplies, and strengthening long-term supply chain resilience by discouraging offshoring. Harris’ economic plan, dubbed the “New Way Forward,” aims to close tax loopholes, strengthen labor rights, and provide government support to high-priority sectors, such as semiconductors and green energy technologies. Trump’s economic plan, dubbed “New American Industrialism,” emphasizes tariffs, corporate tax cuts, and easing of regulations.
Supply chain policy differences in rhetoric and priorities will become a growing attack vector in the lead-up to Election Day. While political discussions focus on the economic benefits, corporate leaders need to understand the implications of policy changes and the effect on their firms’ ability to navigate risks and disruptions.
U.S. manufacturing base and supply chains
Trump’s emphasis on sweeping tariffs creates uncertainty over supply security and fears of inflation. Harris’ continued emphasis on “Bidenomics,” such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, impacts multitier global supply chains and trade policy around the world. Under either plan, the net effect would be that free trade will continue to regress under the impulses of decoupling from high-risk markets, geopolitics, and regionalization. Both parties emphasize the opportunity to create new, well-paid jobs. At the same time, customers are likely to have to bear the higher costs, either directly by paying higher prices in stores or indirectly through subsidies financed by taxpayers’ money.
Labor, immigration, and the workforce
Trump’s emphasis on mass deportation of illegal immigrants will impact the manufacturing and agricultural sectors that already have labor shortages. Harris’ focus on labor rights will amplify organized labor’s influence in supply chain operations and thereby increase costs as seen in the recent longshoreman strike on the East and Gulf Coasts. Both directions will only strengthen inflationary pressures and cause organized labor to resist technological advances such as automation and artificial intelligence to replace jobs. The net effect is that organized labor sees its influence growing under either election outcome, resulting in more potential strikes, and the educational sector being called upon to develop the requisite training and development programs and public–private partnerships to address the manufacturing and supply chain skills gap. Access to top domestic and global talent will be critical to support a growing U.S. manufacturing base.
Sustainability
Trump would roll back some of the environmental regulations, climate initiatives, and decarbonization measures. Big Oil companies, such as Exxon Mobil and Phillips 66, however, have come to embrace the low-carbon energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. Harris is expected to strengthen protections and enforcement alongside international allies and partners. In continuation of the Inflation Reduction Act, a Harris administration would continue providing incentives to green technologies and businesses. The net effect of both approaches would be that corporate leaders will stay committed to decarbonization measures that were set in motion years ago.
Regardless of the election outcome, the uncertainty around supply chain policy will continue well into 2025. In particular, there are growing concerns about costs and their inflationary impact on the deficit and national debt; reform of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports; the role of friend-, near- and re-shoring; and the renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026. The authors are hopeful that supply chain policy steps announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce in September at the Supply Chain Summit will be institutionalized and survive leadership turnover. The election outcome will determine supply chain policy’s next form and shape the U.S. economy’s ability to compete in an increasingly uncertain global market.